Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Predictive Analytics in Telecommunication

13,732 views

Published on

Norbert Kraft, Referent Research & Technology, Nokia Siemens Networks

Durch die weltweite Verfügbarkeit, Abdeckung und Nutzung sind Mobile Telekommunikationsnetze heute ein typisches Anwendungsgebiet für 'Big Data' und insbesondere für komplexe Datenanalyseverfahren. Norbert Kraft beschreibt in dieser Session Einsatzszenarien dieser Technologien in der Telekommunikationsindustrie anhand konkreter Beispiele, die im Rahmen eines Forschungsprojektes des Zentralbereiches 'Technologie und Innovation' von Nokia entstanden sind. In einen Entwicklungsprototypen wurden hier Möglichkeiten der Netzausfallvorhersage sowie der Ursachenanalyse für solche Ereignisse untersucht und entwickelt. Hierbei kommen unterschiedliche Data Mining und Machine Learning Verfahren zum Einsatz, z.B. (Un-)supervised Learning, Clustering Verfahren für die Klassifizierung von Kundenprofilen oder Radiozellen sowie eine Zeitreihenanalyse zur Vorhersage von Netzausfällen. Eine wichtige Rolle neben der Erkennung von Fehlerszenarien ist hierbei immer die Ermittlung einer möglichen Fehlerursache, wobei der erkannte Netzfehler mit einer Vielzahl möglicher Einflussgrößen (z.B. SW Konfiguration, Lastprofil) korreliert wird.

Published in: Data & Analytics
  • ..............ACCESS that WEBSITE Over for All Ebooks ................ ......................................................................................................................... DOWNLOAD FULL PDF EBOOK here { https://urlzs.com/UABbn } ......................................................................................................................... Download Full EPUB Ebook here { https://urlzs.com/UABbn } .........................................................................................................................
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
  • -- DOWNLOAD THIS BOOKS INTO AVAILABLE FORMAT -- ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... Download FULL PDF EBOOK here { http://bit.ly/2m77EgH } ......................................................................................................................... (Unlimited)
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
  • DOWNLOAD THIS BOOKS INTO AVAILABLE FORMAT (Unlimited) ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... Download Full PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... Download Full EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... ACCESS WEBSITE for All Ebooks ......................................................................................................................... Download Full PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... Download EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... Download doc Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... .............. Browse by Genre Available eBooks ......................................................................................................................... Art, Biography, Business, Chick Lit, Children's, Christian, Classics, Comics, Contemporary, Cookbooks, Crime, Ebooks, Fantasy, Fiction, Graphic Novels, Historical Fiction, History, Horror, Humor And Comedy, Manga, Memoir, Music, Mystery, Non Fiction, Paranormal, Philosophy, Poetry, Psychology, Religion, Romance, Science, Science Fiction, Self Help, Suspense, Spirituality, Sports, Thriller, Travel, Young Adult,
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
  • DOWNLOAD FULL BOOKS, INTO AVAILABLE FORMAT ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. doc Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. doc Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... .............. Browse by Genre Available eBooks ......................................................................................................................... Art, Biography, Business, Chick Lit, Children's, Christian, Classics, Comics, Contemporary, Cookbooks, Crime, Ebooks, Fantasy, Fiction, Graphic Novels, Historical Fiction, History, Horror, Humor And Comedy, Manga, Memoir, Music, Mystery, Non Fiction, Paranormal, Philosophy, Poetry, Psychology, Religion, Romance, Science, Science Fiction, Self Help, Suspense, Spirituality, Sports, Thriller, Travel, Young Adult,
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
  • DOWNLOAD FULL BOOKS, INTO AVAILABLE FORMAT ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. doc Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. doc Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... .............. Browse by Genre Available eBooks ......................................................................................................................... Art, Biography, Business, Chick Lit, Children's, Christian, Classics, Comics, Contemporary, Cookbooks, Crime, Ebooks, Fantasy, Fiction, Graphic Novels, Historical Fiction, History, Horror, Humor And Comedy, Manga, Memoir, Music, Mystery, Non Fiction, Paranormal, Philosophy, Poetry, Psychology, Religion, Romance, Science, Science Fiction, Self Help, Suspense, Spirituality, Sports, Thriller, Travel, Young Adult,
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here

Predictive Analytics in Telecommunication

  1. 1. 07/11/20141 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft Predictive Analytics in Telecommunication Norbert Kraft Nokia Technology & Innovation
  2. 2. 07/11/20142 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft Short Introduction • Researcher at Nokia Technology & Innovation • Project Leader ‘Network Data Intelligence’
  3. 3. 07/11/20143 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft Network Data Intelligence • Nokia Research Project • Technology exploration • Generate new insights in telecom data • Raise new business opportunities Mobile Networks Data Mining Machine Learning Big Data
  4. 4. 07/11/20144 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft Why: Requirements in Telecommunication What: Use Cases How: Ways to get it done Problems and Outlook Agenda Predictive Analytics in Telecommunication
  5. 5. 07/11/20145 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft THREE BUSINESSES AT THE HEART OF THE COMING CONNECTED WORLD NOKIA NETWORKS End-to-end mobile broadband and services • Programmability • Hardware to software • Big data analytics • Virtualization and cloud Advanced R&D and IP for licensing and new product businesses • Enabling new customer experiences • Sensing and materials • Connectivity and actuation Making the map of the future the source of location intelligence • Map content assets • Location platform • Relevant, seamless user experiences NOKIA TECHNOLOGIESHERE
  6. 6. 07/11/20146 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft … More Than an End Device End to End Mobile Broadband Dock + O/E conversion Mini BTS Standalone GPS module External directional antenna User Entity BTS/eNodeB P-GWS-GW MME HSS PCRF Internet User Data Signaling
  7. 7. 07/11/20147 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft • 36.6 Million Subscribers for German Telekom • Total of 113 Million Subscribers in Germany • 70 000 Radio Cells in Germany • 100 Million GBytes traffic volume (*2011) • xxx.xxx.xxx.xxx Number of Calls & SMS per Day • xxx.xxx.xxx.xxx Number of Internet connections • SmartPhone is always ‘ON’ Some (estimated) Numbers … German Telekom (2012) Source: Bundesnetzagentur from 2012 Radio Cell Layout of Munich
  8. 8. 07/11/20148 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft Total number of Radio Cells: Munich Example
  9. 9. 07/11/20149 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft Why: Requirements in Telecommuniation What: Use Cases How: Ways to get it done Problems and Outlook Agenda Predictive Analytics in Telecommunication
  10. 10. 07/11/201410 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft Reasons to Talk about … in Telco Space Predictive Near Real Time Big Data Analytics Predictive •From reactive to pro-active mode •Don’t detect - avoid problems Near Real Time Big Data Analytics •Support calling customer at once •Most use cases have real time aspect •XX.XXX.XXX subscribers •XX.XXX radio cells •Any service affects several systems •Modern users are always on •Solve ‘The 5000 KPI’ problem •Detect hidden problems •Find root causes of problems •A single problem causes xxx alarms
  11. 11. 07/11/201411 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft User Mobile Network Data on ‘Signaling’ What the Operator (needs to …) know about … User Identity Location Service Usage Data Volumes Network Personal Data Network Element Status Configuration Data Performance values Alarms SW Logs & Traces CDRs IMSI Device ID & Type IMEI MSIDN Phone NOs A/B Cell location XXX m Higher precision w. triangulation on signal strength URL User Agent IP / port addresses Tarif Address Revenue Call/SMS Length Bytes up/down load structured unstructured Highly structured
  12. 12. 07/11/201412 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft Network Data is Personal Data Disclaimer > Strictly limited by (inter)national laws > Very complex field under continuous change > Different views in different countries > Restrictions on use beyond network management scope > Usage requires customer permission > Network operators have the right to use this data for management purposes > Billing > Fault diagnosis > Network improvement > Support activities !!!! But
  13. 13. 07/11/201413 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft Map of Big Data Analytics Use Cases Network Planning Radio cell Performance User Mobility WiFi offload Drop Call Probability High-volume applications High-volume websites Peak data information Roaming analysis Operation Failure analysis Predict network outages Video download experience Service failures Predictive HW maintenance Chronic circuit problems Security BotNet detection Intrusion detection DOS attacks Customer Product management OTT tracking Tarif simulation Verifying new services, products & devices Viral marketing CRM Fraud detection Churn probability Customer Segmentation Loyalty offers Service Up selling Tracking specific customers (VIPs, dissatisfied) Service First best offer Feedback analysis Discourage SIM swapping Pre-pay recharge message Personalized portal Troubleshootin g support Bill shock messages External Public interest Disaster detection Crowd estimation Traffic supervision Big event management Commercial interest Advertisement User mobility transportation, traffic planning, ads Site protection/sup ervision Large site management Off topic Social media Sentiment analysis Peer group analysis Picture recognition information extraction
  14. 14. 07/11/201414 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft • Important SLA criteria • History Needs to be continuously monitored • Prediction turns monitoring to preventive activity Network Use Cases Dropped Packet Connections per Radio Cell
  15. 15. 07/11/201415 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft • Movement vectors - Color: • Direction • speed - Thickness: no of users • Usage - Traffic planning - Ads planning - Traffic jam prediction Network Use Cases User Mobility
  16. 16. 07/11/201416 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft • Cell classification - Business - Private home area • Predicts preferred user movement • Usage - WiFi offload Network Use Cases User Mobility & WiFi Offload
  17. 17. 07/11/201417 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft • Time slot classification on history - Normal behavior - Outliers • Long term trend analysis • KPI radar & prediction Network Use Cases KPI Prediction & Time Slot Classification
  18. 18. 07/11/201418 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft • Show as many dimensions as possible • Show relations between data Network Use Cases Parameter Correlation
  19. 19. 07/11/201419 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft • Service KPIs monitor system health • SLA agreement guarantees 99.x % availability • Steady values for normal operation Network Use Cases Predictive Operations
  20. 20. 07/11/201420 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft • Early warning indicators • From fault detection to fault avoidance • Methods: - E.g. Hidden Markov Chains • Accuracy: ~80-85% Network Use Cases Predictive Operations KPI Drop Anom alies
  21. 21. 07/11/201421 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft • 1000 KPIs don’t help …. • Root cause - Driving value ? - Origin ? - Combinations of KPIs • Techniques - Decision Tree • Used for prediction of service failures Network Use Cases Root Cause Analysis Network Use Cases
  22. 22. 07/11/201422 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft • An outage always impacts a lot of customers • Predict hardware failures in advance • Collect triggers (possibly) signaling an outage: - SW logs/traces - Hardware signals/deviations (Temperature …) • Find (performance/behavior) outliers in the whole set of all net elements • Replace in advance Network Use Cases Predictive Hardware Maintenance Dock + O/E conversion Mini BTS Standalone GPS module External directional antenna
  23. 23. 07/11/201423 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft Why: Requirements in Telecommuniation What: Use Cases How: Ways to get it done Problems and Outlook Agenda Predictive Analytics in Telecommunication
  24. 24. 07/11/201424 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft PredictiveBig DataAnalytics Stack Generalized Data Analytics Stack Important Components Import, Formatting, Type Conversion Aggregation, Filtering, Distributed Computing Analytics Algorithms (K-Means, KNN…) Visualization, Charting, Drill Down Views Use Cases Data Storage (Relational, NoSQL) Data Sources: net elements, protocols
  25. 25. 07/11/201425 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft PredictiveBig DataAnalytics Stack Generalized Data Analytics Stack NDI Components Import, Formatting, Type Conversion Aggregation, Filtering, Distributed Computing Analytics Algorithms (K-Means, KNN…) Visualization, Charting, Drill Down Views Use Cases Data Storage (Relational, NoSQL) Data Sources: net elements, protocols Development Effort
  26. 26. 07/11/201426 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft PredictiveBig DataAnalytics Stack Generalized Data Analytics Stack Realization Components Import, Formatting, Type Conversion Aggregation, Filtering, Distributed Computing Analytics Algorithms (K-Means, KNN…) Visualization, Charting, Drill Down Views Use Cases Data Storage (Relational, NoSQL) Data Sources: net elements, protocols Analytic Tools RapidMine r Knime SPSS Parallel processing Hadoop, Storm Hive Pig Tableau, QlikView Mahout Language Stacks R Python SCI-Kit (Python) Pandas (Python) Big Data DBs Oracle Teradata NoSQLs
  27. 27. 07/11/201427 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft PredictiveBig DataAnalytics Stack Generalized Data Analytics Stack Realization Components Import, Formatting, Type Conversion Aggregation, Filtering, Distributed Computing Analytics Algorithms (K-Means, KNN…) Visualization, Charting, Drill Down Views Use Cases Data Storage (Relational, NoSQL) Data Sources: net elements, protocols Analytic Tools RapidMine r Knime SPSS Parallel processing Hadoop, Storm Hive Pig Tableau, QlikView Mahout Language Stacks R Python SCI-Kit (Python) Pandas (Python) Big Data DBs Oracle Teradata NoSQLs Vertica Needs to be complemented by powerful DB Problems with Big Data High entry barrier No DB replacement Requires good analyst background Not very popular Crowded place
  28. 28. 07/11/201428 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft Data Storage Approaches Which Store to take for Big Data Analytics Relational • Stable, well known • Great features • Optimized for lots of parallel transactions • Horizontal scaling Key/value store • Fast read / write • Missing aggregation capabilities • No multi indexing Column oriented • Made for fast aggregation • Vertical scaling Document oriented • No fixed schema • Alternative aggregation engines New kids on the block / Hadoop • Missing lots of db features • High throughput processing • No built-in aggregation functions • No real time support • Huge eco system
  29. 29. 07/11/201429 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft DataAnalyticsStack Generalized Data Analytics Stack NDI Components Import, Formatting, Type Conversion Aggregation, Filtering, Distr.Comp. Analytics Algorithms (K-Means, KNN…) Visualization, Charting, Drill Down Use Cases Data Storage (Relational, NoSQL) NDI – Distributed Real Time Importer Data Sources: net elements, protocols Service KPIs DPI Data Enrichments OpenCellId, TAC, Locations Network Element Data NDI – Server NDI – Client Analytics Engine User Mobility BS Synchronization Root Cause Analysis Predictive Operation SQL DBs NoSQL DBs Service Dashboard
  30. 30. 07/11/201430 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft Development Environment Real Time Streaming Server Network Data Intelligence Demonstrator Architecture Database Layer MySQL Others Django Python Browser Client JavaScript OpenLayers HTML CSS HighCharts Pandas RapidMiner Mongo DB HTTP REST Rapid Miner Server Tableau Desktop OrangeTouch JQuery D3 RAW Data Artificial Data Generator SCI Kit Map Reduce SQL Python PandasSCI Kit Standard Programming Data Analytics & Aggregation Rich Client & Charting Tool
  31. 31. 07/11/201431 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft Important NDI Components Pandas SCI-Kit
  32. 32. 07/11/201432 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft Confidential NDI Parallel Real Time Engine Scaling Architecture DPI Net Element Net Element KPIs Enrich ments N * Real Time Engine workers N * Real Time Engine workers N * Real Time Engine workers N * Real Time Engine workers N * Real Time Engine workers NDI Server N * Real Time Engine feeders N * Real Time Engine feeders Message Broker NDI Rich Client NDI Real Time Importer
  33. 33. 07/11/201433 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft Why: Requirements in Telecommuniation What: Use Cases How: Ways to get it done Problems and Outlook Agenda Predictive Analytics in Telecommunication
  34. 34. 07/11/201434 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft Things not solved so far … Challenges Volume Velocity Variety Veracity Data Size • Massive parallel processing Data Formats & Sources • ??? Data in Motion • Stream processing 4Vs In Big Data Data in Doubt • Cleaning, filtering • ??? 4Vs in Big Data Analytics
  35. 35. 07/11/201435 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft Remarks
  36. 36. 07/11/201436 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft … And Keep in Mind Predictive Analytics is Only the First Step! Repair
  37. 37. 07/11/201437 © Nokia 2014 T&I Research / Norbert Kraft Thank You! Questions? norbert.kraft@nsn.com

×