How Change Happens lecture V: aid and change

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Brandeis University Proseminar presentation by Oxfam's Duncan Green from March 2012.

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  • Roots in Programmes (islands of success in a sea of failure)NGOs saw need to shape/check northern policies (anti-apartheid, Central America, IFIs, debt, trade, climate change)And need to change ideas and beliefs to build a mass constituency for changeLeading to the rise of public policy lobbying and global campaigningMedia profile helps persuade the bossesBut bulk of staff still involved in programme and emergenciesRecent swing back to national campaigning and ‘one programme approach’
  • e.g. Pan African Climate Justice Network or Africans Act.4 Africa
  • How Change Happens lecture V: aid and change

    1. 1. INGOs, Aid and Change Duncan Green Brandeis Proseminar March 2012 Lecture 5
    2. 2. The rise of lobbying and campaigning
    3. 3. How does Oxfam campaign? An awful lot of emails, teleconferences, meetings and listserves…. Insider – Lobbying – Research: combined primary, secondary and ‘killer facts’ Outsider – ‘Pop Mob’; media; celebrities; branding (white bands) Alliances – Oxfam International, Climate Action Network, Trade Justice Movement, Make Poverty History, Jubilee 2000
    4. 4. And a fair amount of dressing up
    5. 5. How does Oxfam design a campaign(ideal world version)? Specify range of possible changes you want to investigate Scope the context, institutions, agents and events that shape the change Select the most promising candidates for sustained influencing work Apply Power Analysis to develop an initial influencing strategy
    6. 6. Campaigning ‘Toolbox’ Persuasion Tools
    7. 7. Why do governments listen? They usually don’t, but when they do, it’s because NGOs: – Have legitimacy due to field presence – Move the public (eg Church NGOs on debt) – Are skilled media operators – ‘Tell a story’ – a narrative based on limited research, with good frames and killer facts – Build unusual alliances (e.g. with private sector, or developing country governments) – Sometimes spot emerging issues before civil servants (PWYP)
    8. 8. Compare that previous slide with thiskiller fact…In 2003, the average European cowreceived support of $2.62 per day inagricultural support, which is more than thedaily income of half the worlds people. Which will you remember?!
    9. 9. What to campaign on? The best campaigns (and therefore research) have – A villain – A problem – A solution – Example: TRIPS/Access to Medicines
    10. 10. Favourite Targets and Issues Northern Governments – Environmental impact; land grabs; Aid; IFIs – Debt; conditionality; megaprojects TNCs – Extractives; Pharma; Labour standards, ethical consumerism Trade – Ag subsidies; regional trade agreements (EPAS)
    11. 11. Blind spots and weaknesses Southern governments often get off lightly - comfort zone is global Better at blocking bad stuff than winning good stuff Slow in responding to shocks as opportunities (Planners rule) Better at getting money than changes in policy Too much policy, not enough politics? Often neglect ‘framing’
    12. 12. Where next? Rise in multipolar campaigning – National coalitions – Continental organizations More thought on framing and long term change What do we ask for when there is no money? (taxation, regulation, soft law)
    13. 13. Example of good responsivecampaign: The Robin Hood Tax Picks up and rebrands ‘Tobin Tax’ Responds to the moment – Governments desperate for new sources of revenue – Public anger with bankers
    14. 14. And recruits some great actors.....
    15. 15. New kinds of change strategies atnational level Research evidence – Russia disability campaign Elections focus – Zambian health spending Accelerating Evolution – Chukua Hatua,Tanzania One programme approach – Vietnam Education ‘Convening and brokering’ – Takistan Water and Sanitation Initiative
    16. 16. Last word to some Madrid advertisingstudents
    17. 17. The Aid System
    18. 18. Big Numbers, but not that big 1800 $1630bn 1600 1400 1200$ billion 1000 800 600 400 $7-9.5bn (half $129bn (cf. 58 200 in 2000 from Gates Foundation) 0 Global arms spending ODA Philanthropy
    19. 19. And likely to get smaller
    20. 20. Dilemma: is aid like oil? Impact on – Policy (conditionality) – Institutions (transaction costs, paying the piper) – Politics (severing the social contract) How big is the political deficit, and how can good aid overcome it?
    21. 21. Good v Bad Aid Do: fund watchdogs, fund long-term, support state capacity, put government in the driving seat, ensure downwards accountability – Measles vaccines save 7.5m lives 1999-2005 – Education for All – Rise in General Budget Support (but still tiny %) Don’t: overcomplicate, impose conditions, support parallel systems, poach staff or tie aid – Over 2 year period, Uganda had to deal with 684 different aid instruments from 40 donors, just for central government funding
    22. 22. New thinking on aid Planning v Markets v Networks Can aid system mimic evolution? Cash on Delivery Aid v Do no harm (Birdsall 2005) Aid in a downturn – Pressure on Value for Money and measuring impact – Risks of technocratic magic bullets - charter cities, Independent Service Authorities etc
    23. 23. Group Discussion How does aid support or harm progressive social change? How does it need to be reformed?

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