Are LEDs redy for mass market adoption?

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  • Domestic end TH competition will drive for cost Proffessional lighting will drive for efficacy because of Fluorescent
  • Are LEDs redy for mass market adoption?

    1. 1. 9th May 2012LED strategy review
    2. 2. LED strategy review
    3. 3. LED strategy reviewPilot Installations!
    4. 4. LED strategy review But where is the data? The Reality 18w T8 – old technology 14w T5 – 1350 lumens 7w - 600 lumens? Market Innovators Some Big Claims The Reality 18w T8 life is 20000 hrs
    5. 5. LED strategy review
    6. 6. LED strategy review The Classic Technology Adoption CurveMarket % of sales LED Sales Projection Time
    7. 7. LED strategy review The Classic Technology Adoption Curve 30 - 90%Market % of sales LED Sales Projection Market Stabilisation 2018? Time
    8. 8. LED strategy review The Classic Technology Adoption Curve 30 - 90%Market % of sales LED Sales Projection x% It could be 2012 for some product group Tipping Point X Market Stabilisation 2018? Time
    9. 9. LED strategy review The Classic Technology Adoption Curve 30 - 90%Market % of sales LED Sales Projection x% Tipping Point X Market Stabilisation 2018? Time
    10. 10. LED strategy review LED Technology Adoption Process
    11. 11. LED strategy review LED Technology Adoption Process TH Downlighter FL Downlighter Short T5 Long T5 100 lm/W LED
    12. 12. LED strategy review LED Technology Adoption Process TH Downlighter FL Downlighter Short T5 Long T5 LED
    13. 13. LED strategy review LED Technology Adoption Process Emergency Dimming Controls Integration Colour change Tuneable white Form factor
    14. 14. LED strategy review Standardisation
    15. 15. LED strategy review An international Consortium of interested parties to establish standardisation to promote market adoption
    16. 16. LED strategy review LED Development Roadmaps Driven by Driven by efficacy or Cost? cost Cost - Lm/£ 2011 Driven by efficacy Efficacy - Lm/w
    17. 17. LED strategy review LED Development Roadmaps LED Efficacy Efficacy - Lm/w 3 – 4 yrs200 lm/w warm / cool converge 150 llm/w
    18. 18. LED strategy review LED Development Roadmaps LED Costs Luminaire Cost 60Cost - £/klm 45 30 15 0 LEDs and Drivers are 60% of cost today LEDs down 75%, Drivers down 25% Resulting in 35% reduction in Luminaire cost
    19. 19. LED strategy review Understanding the client motivation Purely financial Compliance Social Energy and Part L Responsibility or maintenance Breeam emotional driver for Contracted targets latest technologies Detailed LCC modelling Watch out for the false comparison!
    20. 20. LED strategy review Understanding the client motivation Purely financial Compliance Social Energy and Part L Responsibility or maintenance Breeam emotional driver for Contracted targets latest technologies
    21. 21. LED strategy review Understanding the client motivation Purely financial Compliance Social Energy and Part L Responsibility or maintenance Breeam emotional driver for Contracted targets latest technologies
    22. 22. LED strategy review Understanding the client motivation Recent project Fluorescent solution - 340kw with capital cost of £600k 100% LED solution – 65kw reduction with cost premium of £300k But....................
    23. 23. LED strategy review But are they ready today for current applications? Areas that embrace a specific advantage of LEDs Cold Environments Any Area over 3m Exterior Lighting (Low levels) Some Applications offer greater opportunity than others
    24. 24. LED strategy review
    25. 25. LED strategy review Mass Market Adoption is most likely to be led by Lamp type rather than Client or Application
    26. 26. LED strategy review Tungsten Halogen 50000 hour Life Cycle Cost Advantages Watch out for........ Lamp life Light Distribution 80% energy saving Lighting Quality Very little forward heat
    27. 27. LED strategy review Lighting Distribution Lighting Quality
    28. 28. LED strategy review 50000 hour Life Cycle Cost LCC Graphic from Vision Advantages Watch out for............ Lumen maintenance Lumen packages not big enough Lamp life Marginal energy saving Fully controllable
    29. 29. LED strategy review Compact Fluorescent 50000 hour Life Cycle Cost Advantages Watch out for............ 50% energy saving Glare control Lamp life Fully controllable
    30. 30. LED strategy review Compact Fluorescent Glare Control is Essential 17000 cd/m² 300000- cd/m²
    31. 31. LED strategy review Compact Fluorescent Colour Temperature Mode
    32. 32. LED strategy review 50000 hour Life Cycle Cost Advantages Watch out for............ Lamp life Glare control Fully controllable Marginal energy saving Form Factors 14w T5 - 50 to 65 llm/w 35w T5 - 70 to 80 llm/w
    33. 33. LED strategy review Form Factor could change here
    34. 34. LED strategy review Life Cycle Cost Energy Lamp Life 80% x 10 10% x6 50% x4 10% x2
    35. 35. LED strategy review Massive Driver for Project refurbishment in the future
    36. 36. LED strategy reviewCommunicating our understandingANY QUESTIONS?
    37. 37. LED strategy review

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