Moving Targets: Irrigation Management Modernization in East ASia and the Pacific.
Moving Targets: Irrigation management modernization inEast Asia and the Pacific (EAP)Jacob Burke (World Bank)+ Paulus van Hofwegen, Chris Perry,Thierry Façon, David Dawe, Ian Makin
Overview1. The Regional Study2. How3. WhyS f4. Some preliminary findings
Irrigation Management Modernization:A Regional Technical Assistance Studyg y• Objective:To identify long term investment priorities for modernizingirrigation & drainage service delivery in the East Asia & Pacificirrigation & drainage service delivery in the East Asia & Pacificregion (EAP)• Method:A ti t f t i i ti & d iA comparative assessment of current irrigation & drainageservice provision and a view to the future (‘future-watch’)• Rationale:Modernization needs shared experience, best practices andlessons learnt but also needs appreciation of economictransitions• Drivers– Economic transformation & off-farm opportunities,– urbanization & transitions in irrigated smallholderagriculture,agriculture,– increased pressure on land and water resources &– amplified climatic risk.
How• National studies & lessons learned• Simple analytical framework to allow comparison• A regional Synthesis Report• Participating Countries:– China, Indonesia, Vietnam (WB funded National Studies)China, Indonesia, Vietnam (WB funded National Studies)– Australia, Japan, (evolution of modernization in OECD countries)– Thailand, Malaysia (FAO funded)• Timetable﹣ Country assessments ongoing – presentation of drafts 12 MarchSynthesis and Consultations; March May 2013﹣ Synthesis and Consultations; March-May 2013﹣ Output: Draft Synthesis Report and guidelines June 2013
Why a focus on modernization?910Annual average7.0 to 9.0• WBG I&D: 31% of IBRD &IDA agriculture lending –dominant but small0.9678llions7.0dominant but small• Quality lending intoexisting asset managementwill count 126.96.36.19945US$bil4.2will count188.8.131.52122006-08 2010-12 2013-2015P j t dProjectedIFCAgriculture production and marketsOther agriculture related investments
World agricultural land 1961 – 2007 (million ha)(2009 baseline: I&D accounts for 44% global production off 16% arable land)1600Arable land and permanent cropsy = 4087 x + 1E+06R² = 0.9543y = 292 x + 1E+06R² 0 086712001400Arable land and permanent cropsRain‐fed land R² = 0.08678001000Rain fed landy = 3795 x + 127865R² = 0.99840060002001960 196 19 0 19 1980 198 1990 199 2000 200 2010Land equipped for irrigation1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Diets are diversifying:East Asia: Share of dietary energy supply 1960-2007East Asia: Share of dietary energy supply 1960 2007
Cropping patterns also changing in some countries:China harvested areas 1976-2011
But not in others:Malaysia harvested areas 1976 – 2011Malaysia harvested areas 1976 2011
The background to modernization in EAP• Total arable land ~250 million ha. Equipped area~90 million ha.• Deltas under pressure & groundwater will need to be factored in.• Some limited room for further expansion, but where and how? Indeveloped basins intensification will need higher waterproductivity• Farm incomes falling – widening rural-urban income gap.• Irrigation management lagging – modernization of institutions asa much an issue as modernization of irrigation schemesa much an issue as modernization of irrigation schemes.• High opportunity cost of rehabilitation and re-engineering to getdesired levels of flexibility.• Irrigation assets at risk. How resilient is the infrastructure... andhow resilient the institutions?l / l l h• Basin planning/negotiation processes now more pluralistic than‘integrated’ but general disconnect between water resourcemanagement and agriculture sector.
Preliminary Findings• Past may be no guide to the future – but historical evolutioninstructive.• By the time the style and level of service is organized, the clientmight have moved on (Malaysia)• Irrigation systems much more ‘open’ than ever before but thesub-sector needs to make a better case for its allocation, useand quality of return flows (China and the ‘redlines’)
Short to medium term analysisShort to medium term analysis• Service oriented management will need more participationskills & information push (Thailand)• Be selective – a modernization index (Indonesia)• Professionalization a priority (Malaysia)• I&D services can be linked to improved ET managementI&D services can be linked to improved ET management(China)• Revenue sources are changing (China)g g ( )
Long term analysis – ‘future-watch’The basic FAO AT2030/50 projections for EAP• Production of irrigated food staples will continue to dominate butg pannual growth rates will slow ~0.5% by 2050.• Equipped areas projected to expand only by 6 million ha. Yieldswill have to increase by 85% and cropping intensities by 15% towill have to increase by 85% and cropping intensities by 15% tosatisfy the supply-utilization accounts.Th i iThe uncertainties• Calorie saturation by 2050? Will regional market connectionscontinue to spread production risk?• Hydrological and climate futures tricky – GCMs not happy withmoisture.• Baseline is patchy – where are the smallholder irrigators, what aretheir incomes and their exit strategies?
The ‘positives’The positives• Maintaining farm incomes will drive land consolidation• Intensification and transition to precision agriculture inevitable –where labour substitution/mechanization is possible• Capacity to operate modernized irrigation and drainage serviceswill need training to start nowAt b i l l if t ‘i t ti ’ th ff ti i tit ti l• At basin level, if not ‘integration’ then more effective institutionalcollaboration to spread risk. Farmer interests can be linked tobasin planning and operation.• At scheme level, costs of reviewing basic competencies andprofessionalism in delivering services are small (RAP/MASSCOTE)
Flexible hardware = flexible institutions?Inflatable weir Bang Pakong basin ThailandInflatable weir. Bang Pakong basin, Thailand