SavvyBI & Empower Analytics monthly electricity market report aug 20
1 Sep 2020
National Electricity Market
Monthly Market Report
Following another month of COVID-19 restrictions, the National Electricity Market
recorded its lowest August energy consumption since 2006 with just 16.7TWh. Lower
demand resulted in softening spot prices across all regions of the NEM, except for NSW.
Sunny days and windy conditions led to August rooftop solar PV generation at 978GWh
and record monthly wind generation for the NEM at 1,991GWh. High levels of
intermittent generation contributed to a high portion of negative price outcomes across
the NEM. Highlights covered in the “At a Glance” section of the report are:
1. QLD recorded the lowest August average price in 6 years, at just $30.45/MWh
2. Record solar PV generation at 375GWh
3. A record 10% of negative priced half-hour periods
4. High solar generation pushed half hour scheduled demand below 4,000MW to
the lowest level in over 15 years
1. Lowest August average spot price in 4 years at just under $50/MWh
2. Record monthly wind generation of 476GWh
3. A record August maximum demand of over 12,000MW.
4. Five NSW wind farms deliver monthly capacity factors exceeding 50%
1. Average spot price was 15% lower than previous month, and lowest August in 4
2. Record August maximum demand at 7,828MW
3. Record monthly wind generation of 691GWh
4. Lowest average gas price since 2016 at $4.42/GJ
1. Spot price 23% lower than previous month and lowest for August in 6 years.
2. High intermittent generation and curtailment of utility solar generation.
1. Tas Hydro pulls back hydro generation as storage levels drop
2. High levels of intermittent generation and volatile spot prices
The east coast gas market saw only a marginal increases in average gas prices for NSW
and QLD, with a slight softening of prices in SA and VIC. LNG Exports were at the lowest
level in over two years with just 1.67m tonnes shipped.
Electricity Forward Market
1. Highlights from AEMO’s 2020 Electricity Statement of Opportunities, the forecasting
document that underpins many of the assumptions for the ISP.
2. Our baseload outages report examines the reliability of the NEM’s ageing coal-fired
News items for this month relate to:
1. NSW government planning 15 utility battery projects
2. ACCC netback price review reveals overpriced domestic gas
3. The planned Shoalhaven expansion is shelved by Origin
4. AGL and Origin show interest in purchase of Click Energy, with AGL making the
5. 200MW Sunraysia Solar Farm in NSW delayed by legal battle
6. Renewable developers get cold feet due to increasing market challenges
7. QLD Labor moves scrap feasibility study for coal fired power
There was significant movement in the
electricity forward market during August.
QLD’s Cal-21 forward price increased by
$2.48/MWh but continues to offer the
cheapest power in the NEM. TAS
increased during August to
$57.40/MWh, while SA with the largest
decrease of $2.38/MWh to $56.22/MWh
Market News Headlines
16 Aug, With a spend of $37.5m and bringing in $233m in
private investment, NSW has awarded the first contracts to
build massive batteries for its power grid with the rollout of 15
projects across the state. With a completion date between
2021 and 2023 and supporting 260 jobs, the projects will
produce up to 170 megawatts of dispatchable energy.
NSW to build 170MW mega battery
16 Aug, The Morrison government to continue with plans to
extend conditions on gas exporters to ensure lower gas
contract prices on the east coast. The ACCC highlighted
domestic gas prices ranging from $8-$11 a gigajoule in late 2019
and early 2020 which was only about $1/GJ softer than earlier
in 2019 despite the crash in LNG exports. The latest netback
price estimate by the ACCC puts that domestic equivalent price
at just $2.36/GJ on August 3 whilst spot gas prices in Victoria
were $4/GJ with price discrepancy of more than $2/GJ set to
last throughout 2020 and 2021 despite expectations of soft
Angus Taylor keeps clamps on gas exporters
17 Aug, The Mornington Peninsula Shire council is opposing the
proposed plan by AGL Energy to develop Australia’s first LNG
import plant in Victoria, claiming it fails to safeguard against
significant environmental impacts. AGL’s planned $250m LNG
import terminal facility slated for Crib Point was part of their
plans to ease domestic supply but failed to win over opponents
at both council and community level.
AGL setback on LNG plant
18 Aug, A 950 kilometre gas line running between Amadeus
Basin, Alice Springs to the Santos Moomba gas plant in South
Australia’s north is in the early planning stages. At a cost of
$1.2billion, the pipeline link is targeting a final go ahead for
construction in the second half of 2021 with gas to flow in the
March quarter of 2024. With a projected delivery of 124
terajoules a day of gas or 45 petajoules a year, the project is a
joint arrangement between Central Petroleum, Macquarie and
Cheung Kong Group.
Plans unveiled for $1.2b NT-Moomba gas pipeline
18 Aug, A new $1billion plus 950km gas pipeline, backed by
Macquarie, Hong Kong’s CK group and Central Petroleum is
hoping to ease an anticipated supply shortfall, flagged for 2024.
With new forecasts showing several gas fields could end
production from mid 2023 to mid 2024 AEMO this new
pipeline could be just the answer.
Macquarie-backed gas pipeline to ease supply shortfall
18 Aug, With grid issues curtailing output at its $650m wind
farm in Victoria, Tilt Renewables has advised shareholders not
to expect any go ahead on new projects. The Dundonnell wind
farm is experiencing technical problems preventing it from
delivering its 330MW of capacity and cited grid issues as the
main factor preventing investment in large scale renewable
energy projects in the foreseeable future.
No new renewable projects while the grid is in crisis
18 Aug, Australia’s largest power retailer, Origin Energy has
shelved a proposed expansion of its Shoalhaven pumped
hydro project in NSW after a Australian Renewable Energy
Agency study found the project was “not commercially
feasible” due to commercial risks, higher costs and a hit to
revenue from pumped hydro facilities and large batteries.
Origin Energy shelves Shoalhaven expansion
19 Aug Fallout from the pandemic has impacted Origin Energy
which has suffered a 93 per cent decline in full year profit.
With its net profit steady at $1.023b the provider has cited bad
debt provisions, write downs and charges as the key areas of
Origin Energy profits slump 93 per cent
19 Aug Following criticism by the ACCC that gas providers
weren’t passing on lower prices to consumers, the Origin CEO
has called for realistic expectations as Australia looks ahead to
economic recovery. Citing Origins full year net profit fall to
$83m from $1.21 billion in 2018-19, Frank Calabria warned that
even with prices of $4-$6 a gigajoule as forecast by a National
COVID-19 Coordination Commission taskforce, this will not be
enough to stimulate investment in the sector going forward.
Don’t expect gas to be cheap, warns Origin CEO
19 Aug Spanish utility, Iberdrola, is flagging its intention to take
over renewable energy company Infigen Energy after profit
tumbled 91.5 per cent during the 2020 financial year. Although
recording a 13.9 per cent revenue increase to $293.2m, profit of
just $3.5m was considerably down from $40.9m in the
previous financial year.
Iberdrola flagging takeover of Infigen Energy
19 Aug With the collapse of oil prices and flagged write downs,
Santos was forced to slash its dividend in the first half of 2020
as it recorded a loss of $US289m ($AUD401.9m). Market
analysts confirmed the results were broadly in keeping with
forecasts although the dividend was at the lower end of the
guidance range and somewhat mixed in terms of outcomes.
Write downs sink Santos with dividend cut
Market News Headlines
19 Aug, Click Energy, the energy division of Amaysim is
rumoured to be up for sale, after generating $153m in revenue
in the six months to December with its 201,000 customer
base. AGL joined rival Origin Energy in putting up its hand with
the acquisition being an easy way to bolster their customer
Imminent sale of Amaysim’s energy division, AGL circles
21 Aug, The $12-17 billion floating LNG facility that is only 3
years old, located off the Kimberley coasts has been in
shutdown since February. Billed by Shell as Australia’s solution
to remote undersea gas production, its future is now in doubt
after failing to reach full capacity with expected exports of
3.6m tonnes of LNG each year. Following three incidents
described as “dangerous occurrences” the facility was shut
down in February with Shell citing major problems and
questioning its economic viability going forward.
Shutdown of world’s largest floating LNG factory
20 Aug, Turbulence in the energy markets caused by the
pandemic has been felt by New Energy Solar with their stock
tumbling seeing them post a half year net loss after tax of
$55.6m. Outlining its intention to sell its Mount Signal 2 asset in
California the company pointed to the closure of businesses
during lockdown and the low levels of economic activity
combined with falling electricity demands worldwide, as
contributing to their economic woes.
New Energy Solar write-downs inflict $55.6m loss
23 Aug, Opponents of Santos’ planned $3.6 billion Narrabri coal
seam gas project are calling for the NSW Independent Planning
Commission to hire independent experts to assess the project
in light of new economic modelling claims by Santos that point
to 4 to 12 per cent cuts to gas prices in Sydney from 2025 over
25 years. Opponents attacking the data, point to modelling
assumptions that the field is economically viable at a lower
production cost of $6.40/GJ and that claims that employment
resulting from the project is 78 per cent higher than earlier
estimates. Calling for independent verification from AEMO the
deadline for the granting planning clearance has been extended
to September 30th.
Santos’ Narrabri gas price under fire
23 Aug, Suggestions of cheap gas prices to be fed into long
term contracts have been dismissed by Senex Energy with its
chief executive pushing for $7 to $9 gigajoule long term prices
to remain to ensure secure supply. After calls from the
competition watchdog to pass on lower gas prices to
consumers with a proposed gigajoule rate of $4 to $6
suggested by a National COVID-19 Coordination Commission
taskforce, Senex’ response pointed to low prices filtering
through in its short term contracts but this was against a
backdrop of higher operating costs, restructuring investment
and higher depreciation and finance costs.
Manufacturers dreaming on cheap gas: Senex Energy
23 Aug, Exxon highlights Victoria’s untapped and undeveloped
onshore low cost gas reserves that could provide a glimmer of
hope as the state looks to recovery. Suggesting an initial
investment of $30m Exxon proposes a new look at Victoria’s
untapped gas reserves against the backdrop of failed attempts,
political disinterest and investments that didn’t gain
momentum for one reason or another.
Untapped gas reserves fuel hope of Victoria’s recovery
24 Aug, Delays of 12-18 months are expected for the delivery of
the 200MW Sunraysia Solar Farm in south-west NSW due to a
legal battle between contractor Decmil and the project owners
over responsibility for connection to the grid.
Delays for the 200MW Sunraysia Solar Farm
24 Aug, Political battles loom large as Labor attempts to scrap a
proposed coal fired power station in northern Queensland. The
$3.3 million feasibility study put forward by Shine Energy was
unanimously disallowed at a Labor caucus meeting throwing
the controversial plan into disarray and creating waves within
Labor leads charge to scuttle coal fired power in QLD
24 Aug, Renewable investment has soured significantly of late
driven by the sectors uncertainty and curtailment issues
according to data from the Clean Energy Council. Spark
Infrastructure reports large scale renewable projects
committed in the second quarter of 2020 were the lowest
since 2017 after tougher rules on grid connection and a
reduction in so called marginal loss factors impacted the
sector. Diminished returns for many renewable operators is
also contributing to a lack of confidence.
Renewables investment facing market hurdles
Aug 2020AEMO ESOO 2020
AEMO releases the 2020 Electricity Statement of Opportunities
This month AEMO released their 2020 Electricity Statement of Opportunities. This
documents is a forecast of electricity supply and reliability for the National Electricity
Market (NEM) for the coming 10 years. Highlights this year’s report were:
• Increased uncertainty in demand forecasts due to COVID-19, potential for sustained
economical turndown, closures and higher uptake of distributed PV.
• The expected reliability outlook has improved for the coming summer 2020-21 and for
the following 5 years due to impact of generation and transmission augmentations and
lower forecasted peak demand.
• The report does, however, highlight the increased level of uncertainty of the reports
forecasts due to the current COVID-19 situation and associated economical impacts.
• Expected Unserved Energy (USE) is forecasted to remain below the 0.002% threshold
throughout the forecasted period, but NSW with the expected closure of baseload
power stations is expected to be pushing that threshold towards the end of the
forecast period. This outlook has improved due to the augmentation of the QNI
interconnector in 2022-23 and the development of a further 900MW of renewable
• By 2025, all regions are expected to experience minimum operational demand in during
the daytime rather then overnight, particularly in Victoria and South Australia.
• AEMO admits that declining minimum demand may lead to challenges in maintaining
system strength and inertia.
• The report also points out the potential for catastrophic reliability outcomes for NSW if
additional investment were not made to replace retiring Liddell capacity and the region
were to experience conditions like the bushfires of January 2020.
• Due to strong growth in distributed PV capacity during 2019-2020, the 2020
distributed PV outlook is now stronger than the previous 2019 ESOO.
Aug 2020Baseload Outages
Coal-Fired Plant Outages
A look at the historical coal-fired generator outages
reveals QLD as the champion of reliability for the NEM. On
average, QLD coal-fired generators ran for around 100
days, while for NSW the average was 72 days and just 43
days for VIC.
Tarong and Stanwell are currently the top performing
Power Stations with the average days since last outage for
their units being 255 and 161 days respectively.
Standout units were Stanwell’s Unit 4 and Tarong’s Unit 1,
which have been running for more than a year without an
QLD At a Glance
❶ Lowest average August price in 6 years …
❷ Record August Rooftop Solar PV generation ...
❸ Price volatility and record negative prices …
QLD recorded the lowest
monthly average price for the
year to date during August at
$30.45/MWh, which was also
the lowest average price for
August in six years as shown
Low average spot price
outcomes in QLD during
August were driven by
record August rooftop
solar PV generation at
The high levels of solar PV
generation pushed down
scheduled demand below
4,000MW, with QLD
recording the lowest
The high levels of intermittent solar
generation led to frequent negative
prices outcomes throughout the
month as evidence in the half hourly
spot price chart for August to the
The high incidence of solar PV generation
during the middle of the day has the
effect of pushing the median and average
prices down to zero throughout the
During August, as a result of the high
levels of rooftop solar penetration,
negative price outcomes were at a
record high level of almost 10%.
Prices in the $0-$50 price band were
also high resulting in almost 90% of
half hour spot price outcomes being
NSW At a Glance
❶ Observations …
❷ Record wind generation … ❹ Record Maximum Demand for August …
The NSW spot price has been slowly
climbing over the past months,
increasing by almost 4% compared
to the previous month. The August
2020 average price at $49.86/MWh
remains the lowest for the month in
four years as shown in chart.
❸ Wind Farm capacity factors above 50% for August …
A record maximum level of wind generation was reach at 7pm on 22 August, when
at total wind capacity reached 5196MW. Record monthly wind generation was also
reached, with August generation just shy of 2TWh at 1,911GWh for the month. It
was also a record month for VIC and NSW with 691GWh and 476GWh respectively.
Not only did NSW record maximum
intermittent wind generation during
August but five of NSW’s thirteen
wind farms recorded capacity factors
above 50% for the month. Capacity
factors for the top 10 performing
wind farms during August are shown
right. As a reference point for
comparison, the average wind farm
capacity factor for NSW wind farms
during 2019 was 35%.
Lowest in 4 years
NSW recorded its highest
maximum demand for
August on record at over
12,000MW on 7 August
which was also the equal
coldest August day in
NSW in seven years with
an average temperature
of just 13.6 degrees.
demand was 4% higher
than the same time last
VIC At a Glance
❹ Wind farm capacity factors up to 50% during August …❶ Low spot prices …
❸ Record wind generation …
The average spot price for VIC fell by
more than 15% compared to the previous
month to $53.70/MWh and the lowest
average price for August in four years.
❺ Lowest average gas price for August since 2016 ...
The average gas price in VIC for August was $4.42/GJ, which was the lowest monthly
average prices since early 2016.
Victoria’s record wind
generation during August
was also due to exceptionally
high capacity factors for the
month with the best
performing wind farms being
near 50% or above. The top
ten performing wind farms
for August are shown right.
As a point of reference the
average capacity factor for
VIC wind farms for 2019 was
Victoria recorded the highest month for wind generation with 691GWh generated for
the month, more than 100GWh more than the next highest month.
❷ Record August Demand
…Maximum demand was a record for
August at 7,828MW on 4 August when
the average temperature for the day
was just 5.5 degrees.
SA At a Glance
❶ Observations …
❷ Negative prices …
❸ High intermittent generation …
During August SA recorded a high
percentage of negative half hour
spot outcomes at 7.6% with a
further 54% below $50/MWh.
❹ SA forward price softens …
SA saw Cal-21 forward
price soften by
August to $56.22/MWh.
The average spot price for SA fell by
more than 23% compared to the
previous month to $45.57/MWh in
August, making it the lowest average
price for August in six years.`
August 29 and 30 had such a large
number of negative priced half
hours that it resulted in a negative
average price for both days.
August 29 and 30 were mild and sunny
days with 29 August recording the
highest winds for the month and the
lower demand at 1pm on 29 August
with just 603MW. For both days the
Heywood interconnector was
exporting around maximum capacity.
As can be seen in the chart below,
Utility Solar was curtained both days,
particularly on 29 Aug which had no
TAS At a Glance
❶ Observations …
❻ TAS becomes net exporter ...
❹ High wind generation …
The average spot price for TAS was
just 1.5% lower then the previous
month at $55.75/MWh.
❸ Hydro generation pulls back …
The potential future battery of the
nation relied heavily on energy
imported from VIC during August. In
recent months TAS has been a net
exporter of energy to VIC, but the
trend reversed during August with a
net flow of 115GWh toward VIC.
Tas Hydro monthly
generation had been
close to 1TWh for the
previous four months
but fell by 28% to just
over 700GWh last
❷ Storage levels drop …
Tas Hydro water storage levels
were considerably lower than
the same time for the past two
years, falling below 40% during
Intermittent generation was
high during August with
Tasmania also experiencing
sustained high winds at the
beginning and end of the
❺ Volatile spot prices ….
the month led to
volatile prices during
August pushing the
average half our price
above the median
Electricity Spot Price
Wholesale electricity spot prices had been steadily
climbing over the previous three or four months across
the NEM, but last month that trend was stopped short
with all regions except NSW recording a significant fall
in average spot prices during August. This was driven
by strong intermittent generation from across all
regions leading to a large percentage of negative half
hour spot price outcomes.
SA, QLD and VIC had the largest fall in average spot
prices compared to the previous month with all three
regions recording an exceptionally proportion of
negative priced half hours. SA’s average spot price fell
by more than 23% to $45.57/MWh, QLD fell by just
over 20% to almost $30/MWh and VIC softened by
more than 15% to $53.70/MWh. Tasmania saw it’s
average spot price fall by just 1.5% to $55.75/MWh
while NSW’s average price increased by 4% to just
The risk-of-change is used to measure the potential
price outcome for a relatively small change in demand
(i.e. +/-100MW) in all states, except for SA and TAS
which is +/-50MW.
The risk-of-change in spot prices remains similar for
most regions except TAS which is shows an increased
risk for high spot price outcomes. QLD shows a slight
risk for high spot prices. Historical risk of change is
discussed in more depth on the next page.
In the intraday spot price profiles to the far right, QLD
shows midday spot prices being crushed by solar
generation. A similar profile but to a lesser extent can
be observed in VIC and SA. All mainland regions show
strong evening peak prices. Tasmania’s intraday profile
shows significant volatility at all hours during August.
Electricity Market Overview
The risk of change is used to
measure the potential price
outcome for a relatively small
change in demand (i.e. +/
100MW) in all states, except for
SA and TAS which is +/ 50MW.
As mentioned in the previous
page, the risk of change for QLD
is showing a slightly higher risk-
of-change for high spot prices.
NSW, VIC and SA all continue to
show a similar risk-of-change for
lower price outcomes as has
been the trend in recent months.
Tasmania in contrast is showing a
very high risk-of-change for high
Aug 2020Q3-20 Spot Price Forecast
The dials to the right compare the current Q3-20 forward price
against our spot forecast prepared in Q2-20. The lower and
upper extremes of the dark grey area mark the 25th to 75th
percentiles respectively, and the median is marked as the break
in the dark area.
During August, the QLD Q3-
20 forward price remained
soft, hovering around
$33/MWh where it ended
the month, below the 25th
percentile of our spot
In NSW Q3-20 forward price
rallied during August from a
low of $45/MWh to a high
of $52/MWh, and then
softening to a close of just
over $48/MWh, just below
the 25th percentile of our
The VIC Q3-20 forward price
moved between $54/MWh
and $58/MWh during
August, closing the month at
$56.20/MWh, just slightly
below the median of our
During August, the spot
price softened from a high
of $54/MWh to a close of
$50.50/MWh, just above
the median of our spot
Q3-20 Flat Swap ($/MWh)
Total Energy consumption was lower for all
regions except for SA where total energy
consumption was just 0.6% higher than the
same time last year. Total energy
consumptions for QLD, VIC and TAS was
around 3% lower than the same time last year
and 2% lower for NSW.
In terms of Maximum Demand levels for
August 2020 compared to the previous year,
all regions recorded considerably higher
• NSW sat a record Maximum Demand for
August at 12,000MW and 5.8% higher than
the same time last year.
• QLD was 3.3% higher at almost 8,000MW.
• SA was 9% higher at almost 2,578MW.
• TAS 1.8% lower that the same time last
year at 1,736MW.
• And VIC set a record Maximum Demand
for August at 7,828MW and 4.6% higher
that the previous year.
During the last month of winter, increased
sunshine and solar PV generation reduced
operational demand during the middle of
the day. The two peak period humps have
grown substantially, increasing maximum
demand for all regions. Exceptional days
1. VIC recorded it’s highest demand one
Tue 4 Aug (Ochre)
2. Thu 6 Aug (Light Blue) and Fri 7 Aug
(Orange) were the two highest demand
days for NSW and also outliers for the
other mainland regions.
3. Sun 9 Aug (Cyan) and Mon 10 Aug were
also days of high demand, the later
recording the maximum demand for
QLD and TAS.
4. Sat 29 (Dark Blue) and Sun 30 (Dark
Purple), the last weekend of August and
a particularly warm one, recorded the
lowest level of demand for all regions
Average temperatures for August were similar to last year for
most regions, with SA and VIC just slightly higher than last year.
The demand weighted maximum daily temperature was slightly
higher than the previous month at 13.4 degrees.
The plot charts to the right compare maximum daily temperatures
with daily total energy consumption and maximum demand
levels. The distribution of temperatures throughout the month
was quite similar to the previous year for all regions with SA and
TAS having a couple of warmer days at the end of the month.
The charts below on the left show weather dependent energy
across the NEM, with SA having the most weather dependent
energy. The majority of regions showed significant increases in
weather dependent energy during August with VIC (shown below)
having the greatest change in weather dependent energy.
A look at historical weather dependency across the NEM shows that SA’s energy is driven the
most by weather, often by more than 20% and particularly during the summer months. SA’s
weather dependent energy had remained at a constant level for the previous four months,
but increase noticeably in August. VIC, NSW and TAS also showed substantial increases in
weather dependent energy during August. QLD was the only region to show a decrease in
weather dependent energy as winter traditionally seems to have lower weather dependent
energy and usually doesn’t see a rise until around October. Overall, the pattern of weather
dependent energy is quite consistent over the years for each region.
Aug 2020Forward Prices
In the risk-of-change metrics to the right, QLD and NSW are
showing an increased risk-of-change in the forward price
compared the previous month, while VIC, SA and TAS continue
to show a low risk-of-change.
The electricity forward market was a mixed bag during August.
• QLD’s Cal-21 forward price increased by $2.48/MWh but
remains the lowest forward price for the NEM by a massive
margin. TAS also increase during August to $57.40/MWh.
• SA saw the largest drop in the Cal-21 price, down
$2.38/MWh to $56.22/MWh.
Generation Mix: During August record wind generation
saw wind increase its share in total NEM generation my
more than 3% to 11.3% of all generation for August.
Residential Solar also saw significant gains, increasing its
share of total NEM generation by 1.5% to 5.5%. Hydro
generation lost a 1.5% share of total generation
compared to the previous month and Gas was 3% less. In
baseload share of total NEM generation, black coal’s
share dropped by 2% to just under 49%, while brown
coal generation increased its share by almost 1% to
16.6% of total generation.
Total generation for the NEM decreased during August to
Baseload generation decreased by 4.5% compared to the
previous month on account of a 7% (620GWh) decrease in
Black Coal generation to 8.6TWh. Brown Coal generation
increased by just over 2% to 2.9TWh.
Non-Baseload generation was slightly higher than the
previous month increasing by just 32GWh. Wind
generation was at a record level during August at
1,991GWh and 43% higher than the previous month’s
generation. Residential Solar also increase significantly,
up 33.5% compared to the previous month at just under
1TWh, while Utility Scale Solar was up 12% compared to
the previous month at 494GWh. Gas and Hydro
generation was considerably lower than the previous
month. Gas generation fell by almost 30% to 1.4TWh,
while Hydro generation was 20% lower than the previous
month at 1.2TWh.
Outages: QLD had another month of high outages during
August with around 1,800-2,000MW of capacity out
throughout the month. Stanwell, Callide and Gladstone
Power Station all had significant outages throughout
August. VIC also had another month of significant outages
with Yallourn having an average of 2 units and around
800MW of capacity missing throughout August. Loy Yang
B had one unit (550MW) out for the first two days of the
month and again for another two days at the end of the
month. NSW also has significant outages during August
with 2,300MW out for the last 11 days of the month.
Liddell had around 1000MW of capacity out throughout
August, Vales Point B had 662MW out for more than half
the month and Bayswater had 673MW out for 11 days.
Utility Solar 2.4%
Utility Solar 2.8%
During August the spot price softened
in all regions except NSW.
In SA there was less capacity offered
overall, led by AGL who with less
capacity offered in the below
$300/MWh price band.
In Victoria there was also less capacity
offered overall. Participants who
offered less capacity during August
were EnergyAustralia and Snowy Hydro
with less capacity offered in the price
bands between $50/MWh and
Less capacity was also offered in NSW
led by significant outages from AGL’s
Liddell Power Station and Delta’s Vale
Point B Power Station during August.
In Tasmania, less capacity was offered
overall, particularly in the lower price
bands in the lower price bands
QLD (not shown) saw little change in
the capacity offered during August with
another month of high levels of
Aug 2020Interconnector Flows
Exports across the QNI interconnector from
QLD to NSW were at the highest level since
September last year, with a net flow of
564GWh during August. The QNI
interconnector was more constrained during
the month, more than 25% of the time.
Energy transfer across the NSW-VIC link was
relatively balanced during August with a net
flow of just 25GWh towards VIC for the
month. The NSW-VIC link was more
constrained 20% of the time during August.
Energy flow across the Heywood
interconnector increased during August with
more energy sent in both directions. Net flow
for the month was 79GWh in the direction of
VIC. The Heywood interconnector was more
constrained during the month at 18.5% of the
After four months of net flow towards VIC
across the Basslink, August saw VIC becoming
a net exporter of energy to Tasmania with a
net flow of 115GWh for the month. Basslink
was also more constrained during August at
9% of the time.
Snowy Hydro’s water storage levels remained at around 28% during August, as Snowy Hydro
continued the high levels of generation seen in recent months. Snowy’s generation during
August was 406GWh which was slightly less that the previous month’s total of 413GWh.
Hydro Tasmania’s water storage levels dropped below 40% during August. Total generation for
August was more about 25% lower than the previous four months at 705GWh. August’s storage
level was considerably lower then the last couple of years.
Aug 2020Gas Spot Prices
The average daily wholesale gas prices increased in QLD and NSW during August compared to the previous month, whereas VIC and SA saw average prices for the month decrease. The average gas price in QLD was
just over $4/GJ for August, while in NSW it increased to $4.54/GJ. In VIC the average price softened to $4.42/GJ and SA recorded the highest average gas price for August at $5.36/GJ.
Aug 2020Summary LNG Exports
From the most recent information available from the Gladstone Port Authority, LNG Exports were at the lowest level in over two years with just 1.67m tonnes shipped during August, with
shipments heading to just 4 destinations during the month.
Exports to China were 1.23m tonnes during August. Exports to Malaysia were 188,200 tonnes while Japan received 134,200 tonnes. Lastly, Korea which received 115,640 tonnes during August.
Total exports to China for 2020 to date is 66.7% of all exports, with the next largest export destination was Korea at 14.4%. Malaysia has a 10% share of LNG exports, followed by Japan at 6.4%
and Singapore with close to 1.9%. Chile with its first shipment now has 0.5% share of total Australian LNG exports for 2020.
Exports Year To
Aug 2020Enviro Spot Certificate Prices
The LGC spot price started the month at $42/certificate but in the last week of August jumped to $47/certificate where it closed the month. The STC price which had
been falling during June and July, maintained a price just above $38/certificate during August.
‘Old’ Hydro LGCs
Assuming for the balance of year Hydro Tas generation is the same as last year, the number of
additional LGC’s will now be an estimated 1.5m. Gordon Dam is now well past its LGC baseline
and is predicted to create almost 600,000 LGCs by the end of the year.
The total potential number of LGCs that could be created assuming 2019 dispatch is repeated
for the balance of 2020, is about 1.5m. In the context of the LGC annual target of 38m, this
represents about 4.1%.
The potential value of the LGCs will depend when sold, but if sold at:
• Cal-20 forward price implies potential value of almost $74m
• Cal-21 forward price implies potential value of $52m
TAS 1,468,499 $47.25 $33.50 $69,387,000 $49,195,000
VIC 95,744 $47.25 $33.50 $4,524,000 $3,207,000
Total 1,564,243 $73,911,000 $52,402,000
Potential market value of …
$52.4m to $73.9m
Aug 2020Enviro Spot Certificate Prices
In NSW, the ESC spot price increased during August go a close of $26/certificate. In Victoria, VEEC’s softened from by about $2/certificate to close around
Aug 2020Enviro Forward Prices
In the LGC forward market, Cal-20 and Cal-22 prices rallied during August while later years remained flat. The Cal-20 LGC forward price rallied by more than $5/certificate late in the month to
a close of $47.25/certificate. Cal-21 rose by just over $2/certificate to a close of $33.50/certificate and the Cal-22 price rose by $1/certificate. The Cal-23 LGC forward price remained flat
during August closing just under $13/certificate, as did the Cal-24 price with a close at $7.35/certificate.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook has been
raised to La Niña Alert, which indicates that the chance of
La Niña forming during the southern hemisphere spring
has increased to 70% or three times the normal likelihood.
La Niña is associated with increased rainfall.
The rainfall outlook for Australia is showing a very high chance of
exceeding median rainfall levels for most of the eastern half of
the country, while most of WA is showing a below average
chance of exceeding median rainfall levels.
Weather Report & Outlooks
The BOM’s median maximum temperature outlook for the
coming months is showing an above 80% chance of exceeding
median maximum temperatures in the NT, northern WA and
QLD, as well as western Victoria and Tasmania. The rest of the
country has an average or above average chance of exceeding
median maximum temperatures.
ENSO OutlookTemperature Outlook Rainfall Outlook