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Modeling Myxozoan Disease in Pacific Salmon: How Will Climate Change Affect Parasite Distribution and Salmon Survival? Dep...
Ecosystem alterations as a result of climate change Interactions with Disease Streamflow patterns Host life histories  The...
Myxospore stage Actinospore stage Polychaete host Salmon host Decreased longevity Increased parasite replication Altered t...
Outcomes Changes in disease severity Changes in seasonal cycles Changes in pathogen range
Identify temporal patterns of parasite abundance Study aim: Apply methods for monitoring parasites in the Klamath to the W...
Identify spatial patterns of parasite abundance Young’s Bar Orleans Williamson River Keno Eddy Seiad Valley Above Beaver C...
Study aim: Determine how changing temperature profiles in coldwater refugia will affect disease cycles temp ct A B C A B C...
Study aim: Predict changes in  C. shasta  range based on projected temperature changes <ul><li>Predict where dissemination...
QUESTIONS?
Study aim: Apply methods for monitoring parasites in the Klamath to the Willamette River Water sample analysis for parasit...
Predict disease severity in salmon Young’s Bar Orleans Williamson River Keno Eddy Seiad Valley Above Beaver Creek Klamatho...
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Modeling Myxozoan Disease in Pacific Salmon: How Will Climate Change Affect Parasite Distribution and Salmon Survival?

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Fisheries scientist Jerri Bartholomew's 2010-2012 research project for Oregon Sea Grant

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Modeling Myxozoan Disease in Pacific Salmon: How Will Climate Change Affect Parasite Distribution and Salmon Survival?

  1. 1. Modeling Myxozoan Disease in Pacific Salmon: How Will Climate Change Affect Parasite Distribution and Salmon Survival? Department of Microbiology, Oregon State University *bartholj@science.oregonstate.edu http://microbiology.science.oregonstate.edu/fac_bartholomew Jerri Bartholomew Fish Disease Research
  2. 2. Ecosystem alterations as a result of climate change Interactions with Disease Streamflow patterns Host life histories Thermal regimes Nutrients
  3. 3. Myxospore stage Actinospore stage Polychaete host Salmon host Decreased longevity Increased parasite replication Altered timing of parasite release Stress causing reduced disease thresholds Changes in population dynamics Altered spore longevity? Ceratomyxa shasta life cycle
  4. 4. Outcomes Changes in disease severity Changes in seasonal cycles Changes in pathogen range
  5. 5. Identify temporal patterns of parasite abundance Study aim: Apply methods for monitoring parasites in the Klamath to the Willamette River Water sample analysis for parasite DNA Young’s Bar Orleans Williamson River Keno Eddy Seiad Valley Above Beaver Creek Klamathon IGD LOWER KLAMATH RIVER UPPER KLAMATH RIVER OREGON PACIFIC OCEAN CALIFORNIA 1 spore/L
  6. 6. Identify spatial patterns of parasite abundance Young’s Bar Orleans Williamson River Keno Eddy Seiad Valley Above Beaver Creek Klamathon IGD LOWER KLAMATH RIVER UPPER KLAMATH RIVER OREGON PACIFIC OCEAN CALIFORNIA
  7. 7. Study aim: Determine how changing temperature profiles in coldwater refugia will affect disease cycles temp ct A B C A B C 1 18.2 17.8 Dry 30.1 27.8     Dry 3 19.6 16.0 34.0 28.6         5 19.1 17.4   34.3 29.7           7 18.9   15.8 31.4   29.9         9 18.7 18.1   28.8 30.6           11 18.7   17.2 33.6   30.1         13 18.9 17.8   28.7 26.9       15 18.6 27.8   17 18.8 28.1   19 18.9 29.8   21 19.1 27.8   23 18.8 28.7
  8. 8. Study aim: Predict changes in C. shasta range based on projected temperature changes <ul><li>Predict where dissemination may occur </li></ul><ul><li>Predict where the parasite may disappear </li></ul><ul><li>Develop a qualitative risk assessment </li></ul>
  9. 9. QUESTIONS?
  10. 10. Study aim: Apply methods for monitoring parasites in the Klamath to the Willamette River Water sample analysis for parasite DNA Young’s Bar Orleans Williamson River Keno Eddy Seiad Valley Above Beaver Creek Klamathon IGD LOWER KLAMATH RIVER UPPER KLAMATH RIVER OREGON PACIFIC OCEAN CALIFORNIA
  11. 11. Predict disease severity in salmon Young’s Bar Orleans Williamson River Keno Eddy Seiad Valley Above Beaver Creek Klamathon IGD LOWER KLAMATH RIVER UPPER KLAMATH RIVER OREGON PACIFIC OCEAN CALIFORNIA 10 spores/L

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