Sarah Kolesar: “Of most interest is presenting the overall “big idea” behind your project and how it is relevant to Oregon’s community (scientific and general public). There is no need to go into the detailed scientific methods of your work, but please be prepared to discuss your outreach plans.”Central question slide addresses thisRationale Slide – addresses why do coastal mgrs want to know this?Outreach slide discusses our plans
Pat Corcoran, Joe Cone, etc – mention OR people that may be involved including Steve Adams and Stacy Vynne at CLI/TRIG and ISE?
“Outcomes” refer to desired states or conditions of human and natural coastal systems along an adaptation pathway over time.“Mechanisms” (or processes) refer to the spectrum of societal mechanisms that could achieve desired outcomes, including institutional and legal configurations, incentives, stakeholder involvement processes, methods of assessing and making trade-offs, adjudication, compensation, financing, and psycho-social processes for dealing with loss.
Projections that will be used in NCA – scenarios based on lit that’s come out since IPCC 2007Projections were 18-59 cm in last IPCC assessment (lower projections)All the lit since then is double or more than that. Highest projections are 2m by 2100!What happens locally depends on rising land relative to that riseDidn’t just include one intermediate scenario – psychological tendency when you see 3 is to assume the middle is correct Low is extension of historical trends w/o acceleration – trends in 20th century – global – on West coast for example, it was 8 inches over 100 years. But now we’re looking at a 7-9 fold increase in rate Low would be another century like the pastNext 2 are from various studies – diff warming scenaroiosHighest is based on geophysics – if you tried to melt as much ice as you could and eroded all the barriers, how much could you possibly raise it – some like Jim Hansen believe it could be higher than the high one! Even the 2m over what we’ve seen in last century will be catastrophic – think mega deltas of Asia, millions of people Highest is highest estimates in body of respectable scienceMiddle estimates bracket other studies – B1, A2 scenariosSome are modeling, empirical, studies ‘Predictions are based mostly on what happens with the ice sheet – biq question Greenland and West Antarctic Ice sheet – 2 most vulnerable ones – both are disappearing faster than anyone predicted – that’s why so many diff approaches out there – how can we get a handle on thisClimate Wire today – Kiribati residents are preparing to move to Fiji – govt buying land there to prepare for immigration. Considering constructing man-made islands too. (One form of adaptation.) – Move, adapt or die!
Relevant to OR communities
Stepwise – Sea Grant makes big deal about engaging stakeholders – so we convey all the ways we engage them. Before, we interview them – how do they think about it – then workshop – then tell them what came out of worksoip – stepwise – workshops with scientistsNo case studies – big thinkers from each state – representative communities that are doing neat things, or important policymakers, small towns vs. big airports, etc.. See practitipner definition in proposal – coastal plnanners, engineers, commuityleafders elected or note elcected, enviro issues person, peple who plam, impremenrt , make decisions, etc. on the ground people. Will look at the different geographoc social and political contexts in each staes. Some differences in coastal law. Coastal geoglogy and ecology. A way to be local to the practitioners. One workshop for all the West coast in CA, pwople in OR might not go.Limited by certain laws? There is a dfederal element to takings law, but there are diff state laws too..
Look to proposal – what we say about the pre-workshop interviews – will develop interview guide.
p/vodcasts – Joe Cone – he does this sort of thing
Acknwledge letters of support
Successful Adaptation to Coastal Climate Change
Successful Adaptationto Coastal Climate ChangeIdentifying Effective Process andOutcome Characteristics and Practice-Relevant Metrics
The all-star, all-female, three-state Project Leadership Team Dr. Pamela Matson (PI)Stanford University Dr. Susanne Moser (lead co-PI)Susanne Moser Research & Consulting/Stanford Dr. Amy Snover (co-PI)University of Washington Dr. Hannah Gosnell (co-PI)Oregon State University
Central Question What does successful adaptation look like? …in different physical, ecological, socio- economic, institutional and cultural contexts that characterize coastal communities• Scientific perspective: What process and outcome elements could be considered?• Ethical/normative perspective: Which process and outcome elements should be considered?• Practical perspective: How can communities measure progress towards successful adaptation, both in the near and long-term?
An Increasingly Pressing Question Global sea level rise expected to accelerate with climate warming ~7-8 in 1900-2000 ~16 in by 2050 ~55 in by 2010
RationaleWhy do coastal managers want to know? To decide on a particular course of action To garner the necessary political and social support to commit scarce resources to adaptation To define defensible and measurable goals To assess trade-offs among different options To agree with coastal stakeholders on a preferable strategy To illustrate reasonable progress and be
Alignment with Sea GrantGoals National Sea Grant Program Vision: “people live along our coasts in harmony with the natural resources that attracted and sustain them” Sea Grant Core Values: - strong partnerships - integration of scientific expertise and research - active engagement of stakeholders - extension and education Touches all focal areas in the 2009-13 Strategic Plan
Project Approach Rooted in existing literature Stepwise engagement of scientists, and coastal practitioners Comparative approach ◦ WA, OR, CA practitioner workshops ◦ Perspectives from science and practice ◦ Extensive stakeholder engagement during and after project
Approach: Step-by-step1. Literature review - Scientific literature - Plans, policy documentsQuestions: What has been said to-date about adaptation success? What intentions about desirable processes or endpoints can be discerned? What dimensions of success are commonly delineated? What timeframes are (implicitly or explicitly) considered relevant for the determination of success? What criteria and metrics have been proposed to measure progress toward adaptation success? Over what temporal and geographic scales is success defined? What social, economic, and ecological endpoints and process aspects are considered? Are trade-offs recognized, and if so, how are they being discussed or handled? Is the prospect of unavoidable loss raised, and how is it treated? What, if anything, is unique concerning the coastal adaptation context?
Approach: Step-by-step (cont.) 2. Workshops ◦ - Science experts ◦ - Practitioners in each state (incl. preparatory interviews) ◦ - Capstone: Science and practitionersDay-long interaction and discussion:◦ Tabletop (pair and small group) activities, and group discussion to elicit participants’ mental models or top-of-mind elements of successful adaptation◦ Focus on persistent and vexing CZM challenges◦ Discuss success through various theoretical lenses◦ Explore metrics of success◦ Consider different time horizons◦ Examine trade offs◦ Explore possibility of developing guidelines, delineating principles, and providing a set of indicators (scorecards)
Expected OutcomesSpecific results of the project include: Clear categorization of “desirable” and undesirable” outcomes of coastal climate adaptation actions; Sophisticated articulation of desirable process characteristics (generically, or for particular stakeholders), and why; Guiding principles on how to assess adaptation options as to their traits, desirability, and potential trade-offs; Practical success metrics (e.g., existing or new “performance measures”)
Stakeholder Engagement Pre-workshop interviews with practitioners ◦ identify existing mental models ◦ support development of useful workshops Practitioner Engagement in Workshops Outreach to Coastal and Other Stakeholders after the Workshop Series ◦ Network of Sea Grant programs and extension ◦ Network of coastal and climate-focused organizations in each West Coast state ◦ Network of adaptation-focused organizations nationwide ◦ Local, state, federal and tribal policymakers through existing connections ◦ National Climate Assessment
Outputs 3 Practitioner workshops Peer-reviewed publications Lay audience publications (coastal magazines, etc.) Presentation templates for professional and lay audiences p/vodcasts for public and stakeholders Conference presentations Briefings with policymakers
Acknowledgments:•Steve Adams, AdinaAbeles, Stacy Vynne,and Lara Whitley-Binderin developing andexecuting this project.•The West Coast Sea YOUR QUESTIONS?Grant programs for corefunding, and all partnerinstitutions for matchingfunds.