[EN] scenarios for the future of social media

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this presentation describes my thoughts as to the paths that social media innovation could take in the next few months/years in the ares of 1) Marketing 2) CRM and 3) Enterprise Social Networks

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  • Just returning from a blogger tour in Silicon Valley which took place Sept 17-22, 2012. Invaluable feedback, visions and first-hand information straight from the horse’s mouthwe’ve been talking to some of the most innovative start-ups in the Valley (World)I’ll use this information in order to populate my predictions as much as possibleall stories about that tour can be found online at http://live.orange.com
  • Even 10 years later, there is a lot of sniggering with regard to how social media can fit in the business space. Yet, many a company has successfully managed to use these tools (and the philosophy behind it) to integrate word of mouth marketing into their Marketing strategies. This has been the subject of many a presentation I have uploaded on our http://slideshare.net/orange space, but I won’t touch on that in today’s presentation. I will take these the fact that social media can be used for business for granted and jump to the part dedicated to the analysis of what I think could well be the future of social media.For those who haven’t yet got to grips with the benefits of social media in business and how it can be implemented, please refer to my slideshare presentation entitled: useful social media: what social media platform for what purpose? available from our slideshare corporate space at http://slideshare.net/orange
  • what happened is this. From a marketing bubble we have jumped into a financial bubble but the effects of that bubble are far less severe than 10 years ago. fewers companies are overvalued, LinkedIn has even performed very well and there are far fewer companies launching IPOs nowadays as compared to 12 years ago during the dot com craze. It has been noted though that IPO could also stand for It’s Probably Overpriced!
  • so here are my thoughts on the subject. I was asked to put this presentation together at very short notice but at the same time, the timing was really good as today is the pivoting moment for social media. Yet, one should be aware that predicting the future is hardly easy…!Nostradamus (aka Michel de Notredame, the famous 16th century seer who is still regarded as an oracle has made so many predictions which never came true that I would be ill advised to do the same.
  • This is why I decided to turn my predictions into potential scenarios of what could happen, post Facebook IPO in the small world of social media. They are mere assumptions, of course, anybody is allowed to disagree, correct me, add to this etc.
  • Jeremiah Owyang has sounded the death knell of the spirit instilled by the creators of the cluetrain manifesto. As many in the audience – so I realised time and time again unfortunately, even in business schools – are barely discovering that the manifesto exists and what it meant to us pioneers of the World Wide Web,
  • these are the steps which we have – roughly – followed at Orange when adapting social media to CRM situations in response to the amazing uptake of social media usage by customers in order to get help about their products.
  • my answer to that question is a resounding NO! online customers should be handled equally and all deserve attention. failing to address “ordinary” customers and focussing on self proclaimed influential bloggers who tend more and more to behave like spoilt children is hardly a good idea.I am therefore advocating for a dramatic rise in the quality of service in which social media can play a role as a tale-telling sign (for complaints cannot be hidden on social media). Obviously, perfection is not attainable and there are also a lot of complaining customers in bad faith but all must be helped as well as possible.Will I be heard though, is another story.
  • my answer to
  • [EN] scenarios for the future of social media

    1. 1. scenarios for the future of social media picture cc 2011 Yann Gourvennec – http://bit.ly/picasayann> Orange Business Services Paris, September 27th, 2012some rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 1
    2. 2. creative commons notice get the final version from http://oran.ge/slides or by scanning the QR code > This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution- Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by-nc-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 543 Howard Street, 5th Floor, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. > You are allowed to use one or all the slides/images contained within this presentation provided you quote the author and the source of this information (http://orange.com)some rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec
    3. 3. my personal research online> http://visionarymarketing.com> http://visionarymarketing.wordpress.comsome rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 3
    4. 4. 2 publications in 2011> http://precommerce.com > http://amonboss.comsome rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 4
    5. 5. some rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 5
    6. 6. some rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 6
    7. 7. some rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 7
    8. 8. agenda @orange @ygourven > introduction > 1.social for marketing > 2.social for CRM > 3.enterprise collaboration > conclusion picture: microsoft gallerysome rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 8
    9. 9. scenarios for the future of social media picture cc 2011 Yann Gourvennec – http://bit.ly/picasayann> introductionsome rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 9
    10. 10. Silicon Valley blogger bus tourSept 17-22, 2012#blogbus live.orange.com
    11. 11. your view of social media?some rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 11
    12. 12. the good old days of Web 2.0some rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 12
    13. 13. one fine day … in 2012some rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 13
    14. 14. may 18, 2012?some rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 14
    15. 15. unless…some rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 15
    16. 16. scenarios for the future of social media picture cc 2011 Yann Gourvennec – http://bit.ly/picasayann> 1. for marketingsome rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 16
    17. 17. a word of caution> a risky exercise> use hindsight but…> don‟t think negatively> nobody can really predict the futuresome rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 17
    18. 18. scenarios for the future of social media picture cc 2011 Yann Gourvennec – http://bit.ly/picasayann> 1 social marketingsome rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 18
    19. 19. 19 Cluetrain Theses (Original) 1. Markets are conversations. 2. Markets consist of human beings, not demographic sectors. 3. Conversations among human beings sound human. They are conducted in a human voice.© 2012 Altimeter Group
    20. 20. 20 Cluetrain Theses (Updated for 2012) 1. Markets are conversations conversational ads 2. Markets consist of human beings, brand pages, not demographic sectors. and social graph targeting 3. Conversations among human beings sound human. They are conducted in a human voice. Analyzed by social performance analytics© 2012 Altimeter Group
    21. 21. Orange Silicon Valley‟s Georges Nahon, 2012“Apple, Amazon, Facebook andGoogle will continue to developtheir „non-searchable adjacentwebs‟event sponsored by Georges NahonCEO Orange Silicon Valley
    22. 22. (after diaspora*) app.net > Dalton Caldwell‟s app.net > blog post - July 2012 > twitter‟s ecosystem > respect for users > 10k instant users > 20k users as of now > $50 p.a. > $100 p.a (developers)some rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 22
    23. 23. what potential scenarios?facts scenarios> social networks change > 1. users abandon social gears networks en masse (West) - ecosystem under control > 2. new more respectful - create “adjacent” web social networks develop (Nahon) > 3. niche social networks - monetise, monetise, develop, less privileged monetise… users get spammed - marketing by interruption > 4. alternative social (again) networks vanish, marketing wins > 5. the unexpected happens some rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 23
    24. 24. scenarios for the future of social media picture cc 2011 Yann Gourvennec – http://bit.ly/picasayann> 2 „social‟ CRMsome rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 24
    25. 25. not applicable to all brands/businessessome rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 25
    26. 26. phases in SCRM implementation industrialising respondingunderstanding scaling some rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 26
    27. 27. question 4: should we handle online customers better?picture: microsoft gallerysome rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 27
    28. 28. what potential scenarios?facts scenarios> angry customers speak > 1. industrialisation doesn‟t up happen, organisations try> social media makes to cope complaints visible to all > 2. industrialisation> volumes are rising happens, social becomes> scaling is key a major channel> processes are key > 3. volumes rise, companies can‟t cope,> not all brands are equal new channel is closed/stifled/minimised some rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 28
    29. 29. scenarios for the future of social media picture cc 2011 Yann Gourvennec – http://bit.ly/picasayann> 3. enterprise collaborationsome rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 29
    30. 30. abolishing internal email source: http://www.computing.co.uk/ctg/news/2024715/atos-aims-abolish-internal-email-2014 Some rights reserved by sualk61some rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 30
    31. 31. what potential scenarios?facts scenarios> repositories are > 1. internal systems ubiquitous multiply, chaos settles in> a few major players: ms / > 2. new yammer-like ibm / jive … disruptions?> email is the cause of a > 3. ms & ibm win major productivity/well- > 4. status quo, focus shifts being issue on education, true> collaboration isn‟t easy business collaboration> business processes at bay some rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 31
    32. 32. scenarios for the future of social media picture cc 2011 Yann Gourvennec – http://bit.ly/picasayann> conclusionsome rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 32
    33. 33. my hunch as to what will/won‟t changepost may 2012 landscapewhat will not change what might well change> R.I.P Web 2.0 > gamification?> “social” CRM must scale > Facebook IPO outcome? or die > data privacy issues> the Web is social, > niche social platforms? consumers go social > more globalisation?> web teams do social > mobile first platforms win> websites are/will be social> all go mobile> emerging countries are our future some rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 33
    34. 34. thank yousome rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 34
    35. 35. interact with us online@orange http://www.facebook.com/orangehttp://live.orange.com http://slideshare.net/orange some rights reserved - CC 2008 - visionarymarketing.com - Yann A. Gourvennec 35

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