LLKD13 thriving under uncertainty

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LLKD13 thriving under uncertainty

  1. 1. Thriving under uncertainty with Discovery Kanban London Lean Kanban Day March 2013 patrick.steyaert@okaloa.com @PatrickSteyaert© Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  2. 2. Options and variation 2 Option 1 Effort = 300MD Most likely delivery = May 31 Variation = ±10 days Deadline = May 15 Option 2 Effort = 300MD Most likely delivery = May 31 Variation = ±20 days © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  3. 3. Thriving under uncertainty 3 Plan perspective Risk perspective Options perspective (Robust but fragile) (Resilient) (Anti-fragile)§  variation and §  absorb variation and §  thrive from disruption; disruption are not tolerate disruption variation can be tolerated very well without collapsing beneficial Customers/ Users / Stakeholders TEAM FLEXIBLE BOUNDARY © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  4. 4. 4Pains and gains in the history of projectsAbsorbing variation - Classes of Service Thriving on variation - Options Kanban variations © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  5. 5. A calamitous history of 5projects*Project Cost overrun Project Actual trafficChannel tunnel 80% as percentageUK-FR of forecastØresund 70% Channel tunnel 18%access link, DE UK-FRGreat belt link, 54% Miami metro, 15%DE USAØresund coast- 26% Denver 55%to-coast International Airport, USA Conclusion: don’t trust Conclusion: don’t trust cost estimates usage forecasts *Source: Megaprojects and risk, an anatomy of ambition, Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, 2003 © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  6. 6. IT projects 6ps of issues that cause most project failures. IT projects >$15 million1 2 45% ssues Benefits shortfall –56% Delivering large-scale IT projects on time, on budget, and on value, Michael Bloch, Sven Blumberg, and Jürgen Laartz 3 Skill issuesof 17 percent IT projects go so bad that they can 4 Execution issues threaten the very existence of the company (cost overruns of +200% and schedule slippage of nearly 70%) Double Whammy – How ICT Projects are Fooled by Randomness and Screwed by Political Intent, Alexander Budzier, Bent Flyvbjerg, Aug 2011. 6 © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  7. 7. Delusions and deception §  Imperfect forecasting techniques and inadequate data7 §  Planning fallacy & optimism bias §  Strategic misrepresentation and asymmetric information © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  8. 8. How projects are “sold” 8Gains/Lossesf(X) Gain Convexity Unknown X Pain Gain more than pain © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  9. 9. 9© Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  10. 10. How projects turn out in practice 10Gains/Lossesf(X) Gain Unknown X Pain Concavity Pain more than gain © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  11. 11. 11Variation and disruption§  Order of magnitude (size) §  Political intervention§  Customer §  Interrupt work§  Team §  Technical problems§  Policies §  Changing requirements§  Technology §  Resources not available§  Environment §  Environmental problem(s)§  … §  … © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  12. 12. Amplification – pain 12 Changes Prioritization Requirements Product Work Failure load / Rework © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  13. 13. 13Irreversibility & Lock-in © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  14. 14. Complex projects 14How they are planned How they turn out Convexity Concavity © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  15. 15. Absorbing variation 15 Plan perspective Risk perspective Options perspective (Robust but fragile) (Resilient) (Anti-fragile)§  variation and §  absorb variation and §  thrive from disruption; disruption are not tolerate disruption variation can be tolerated very well without collapsing beneficial Customers/ Users / Stakeholders TEAM FLEXIBLE BOUNDARY © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  16. 16. Kanban systems – Less pain 16 Variable capability Variable demand Capability Bottlenecks Uncertainty Demand Loopbacks Kanban © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Accredited Kanban Training
  17. 17. Cost of delay 17 EXPEDITE Cost/Value FIXED DATE STANDARDINTANGIBLE x time © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  18. 18. Classes of service - Minimize Cost 18 of delay while retaining flexibility Cost of delay Urgent Respond Policy§  critical and immediate EXPEDITE §  will be pulled immediately cost of delay by a qualified resource§  cost of delay goes up FIXED DATE §  will be pulled based on risk assessment Cost of delay significantly after Flexibility deadline (delivering on time)§  cost of delay is shallow STANDARD §  will use first in, first out but accelerates before (FIFO) queuing approach to leveling out prioritize pull§  cost of delay may be INTANGIBLE §  will be pulled through the significant but is not system in an ad hoc incurred until much fashion later Important Anticipate © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  19. 19. Capacity allocation across classes of 19service EXPEDITE Expedite +1 = +5% Cost/Value Fixed date 4 = 20% FIXED DATE Standard 8 = 50% Intangib le 6 = 30% STANDARDINTANGIBLE x time © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  20. 20. Thriving under uncertainty 20 Plan perspective Risk perspective Options perspective (Robust but fragile) (Resilient) (Anti-fragile)§  variation and §  absorb variation and §  thrive from disruption; disruption are not tolerate disruption variation can be tolerated very well without collapsing beneficial Customers/ Users / Stakeholders TEAM FLEXIBLE BOUNDARY © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  21. 21. Amplification of gains 21 Opportunities Resources Requirements Product Work User feedback/ Revenue © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  22. 22. Opportunity for learning 22 Risk/Options Cost/ValueProbes Enablers Table stakes ExceptionalsIs there a Can we build What is Protect & exploitneed? it? essential? existing value time © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  23. 23. Never commit early (unless you 23 know why)Potential option Validate PROBE Potential option Validate ENABLERS Potential Validate option TABLE STAKES Potential option EXCEPTIONAL © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  24. 24. Exercising options 24 Potential Exercised Option Option Option © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  25. 25. 25Options expire §  Expedite – critical and immediate cost of delay è will be pulled immediately by a qualified resource §  Fixed date – cost of delay goes up significantly after deadline è will be pulled based on risk assessment (delivering on time) §  Standard – cost of delay is shallow but accelerates before leveling out è will use first in, first out (FIFO) queuing approach to prioritize pull §  Intangible – cost of delay may be significant but is not incurred until much later; important but not urgent è will be pulled through the system in an ad hoc fashion © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  26. 26. Options have value 26Gains/Lossesf(X) Gain Convexity Unknown X Pain Gain more than pain © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  27. 27. Options - Maximize learning, 27 minimize cost of failure Option Exploration§  Fragmented functionality, PROBE §  Explore customers Lo-Fi implementation and needs Learning opportunity§  Minimally coherent end- ENABLERS §  Explore feasibility to-end functionality and critical quality Cost of failure showing critical quality§  End-to-end functionality TABLE STAKES §  Explore what is with standard quality essential for exploitation§  Broad and detailed EXCEPTIONAL §  Protect & exploit functionality, Hi-Fi existing value implementation Commitment Exploitation © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  28. 28. Exploration versus exploitation 28Potential option Validate PROBE Exploitation Potential option Validate ENABLERS Potential Exploration option Validate TABLE STAKES Potential option EXCEPTIONAL © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  29. 29. 29 Real options* An option is the right to do something but not the obligation §  Options have value §  Options expire §  Never commit early (unless you know why)*Ref: Chris Matts & Olav Maassen © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  30. 30. The knowledge discovery process 30 Narrative,fragmented, Working product Decision to possibly (i.e. probe, dampen or conflicting enabler,…) amplify Potential Exercise Validate Abandoned Option option option option / Continue Coherent, Feedback shared (e.g. user concept feedback) Discovery front-end Development Discovery back-end Forming hypotheses Validating hypotheses © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  31. 31. Discovery Kanban Board 31 WIP limits express exploration – exploitation balance Exploration ExploitationLegendExpedite Potential Option Exercise Validate Abandon / option option option Continue Fixed date 3/3/9/4 1/1/5/2 1/1/4/2 ProbeStandard probe probe 28/3Intangib Enabler le enabler Intangible Fixed date probe probe F Table Demo for tradeshow table R&D L stakes on 28/3 stakes O W Exceptional Expedite table stakes Overdue regulatory Standard enabler development Framework development FLOW © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  32. 32. Kanban variations 32 Delivery Kanban Discovery Kanban1.  Visualize – work 1.  Visualize – options2.  Limit work in progress 2.  Minimal options / maximum un- validated assumptions3.  Manage Flow – flow of work 3.  Manage Flow – flow of customer/4.  Make Process Policies Explicit – user acquisition work policies (e.g. in terms of cost of delay) 4.  Make Process Policies Explicit – option policies (e.g. in terms of5.  Implement Feedback Loops – at cost of failure) workflow, inter-workflow and organizational levels 5.  Implement Feedback Loops – customer feedback loops6.  Improve Collaboratively, Evolve Experimentally (using models/ 6.  Improve Collaboratively, Evolve scientific method) Experimentally (using models/ scientific method) © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  33. 33. Not just for start-ups §  Product development (mature product)33 §  Business-IT programmes §  Business transformation §  Lean agile coaching © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  34. 34. Thriving under uncertainty 34 Plan perspective Risk perspective Options perspective (Robust but fragile) (Resilient) (Anti-fragile)§  variation and §  absorb variation and §  thrive from disruption; disruption are not tolerate disruption variation can be tolerated very well without collapsing beneficial Customers/ Users / Stakeholders TEAM FLEXIBLE BOUNDARY © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  35. 35. Inspiration 35 Knowledge discovery process: http://alistair.cockburn.us/ The+Design+as+Knowledge +Acquisition+Movement © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  36. 36. Thank You patrick.steyaert@okaloa.com @PatrickSteyaert© Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Thriving under uncertainty
  37. 37. Classifying features 37 Epic Epic Epic Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Anti-fragile projects
  38. 38. Classifying features - probes 38 Epic Epic Epic Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Anti-fragile projects
  39. 39. Classifying features - enablers 39 Epic Epic EpicEnablers Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Anti-fragile projects
  40. 40. Classifying features – table stakes 40 Epic Epic EpicEnablers Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story StoryTable stakes Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Anti-fragile projects
  41. 41. Classifying features – exceptionals 41 Epic Epic EpicEnablers Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story Story StoryTable stakes Story Story Story Story Story StoryExceptionals Story Story Story © Patrick Steyaert, 2013 Anti-fragile projects

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