2014/15 Foreign Player Predictions - Who Will Succeed and Who Will Fail?
In early 2009, we first came up with an idea for a model that could analyze and predict if certain players will match certain teams.
In October 2013, we met with Maccabi Haifa and presented our model. In preparation for the meeting, we ran the model on all .2013/2012in Israel in foreign signings
Out of 40 players, we showed our model could have accurately predicted the future of 31 – That’s 77.5%.
After that meeting, Potential Ability was officially born. Since then, we’ve been working hard on fine-tuning and perfecting our model.
For the upcoming season, we decided to test our new & improved model, and try to predict with will happen with the [number] signings that took place this summer.
Let’s see if we can beat that 77.5%.
We defined “foreign signings” as non-Israeli players who came to Israel for the first time this season (Not including players who played in Israel in the past and came back).
Then, we defined what would be determined a success:
Players who will be released In January, or will not be offered to extend their contract at the end of the season
Players who will play at least 75% of their team’s games, and will extend their contract or be offered to at the end of the season
Without giving our whole secret recipe away, we can share that some of the methods we use include: - Overall review of the player’s CV - Statistical analysis of the player’s performance over the past few seasons - Analyzing the player’s style of play and how it fits in with his new club’s style of play - Examining the player’s weaknesses and strengths, and comparing them to the IPL’s overall level and style of play - Running background checks to get a better sense of the player’s history (Violent behavior, dressing room issues ETC) - In-depth video analysis For this analysis, we used an express version of the model – The same one used in the Maccabi Haifa presentation, with a few minor upgrades.
Cesar didn’t want to leave Spain. After 3 years in the Belgian Gent, he was signed by Zaragoza, and had a wonderful half a season. Alongside his solid performances, he blended very well socially, and was highly appreciated by Zaragoza’s head coach. But his wages were extremely low, and when the offer from Beitar came, he decided to leave after understanding Zaragoza won’t be able to match the financial terms, and the capital city team won the jackpot.
In contrary to other Spanish center backs that played for Beitar, Cesar is a bullseye, as he’s familiar to bottom table fights just as much as he’s familiar to successes. He’s a fighter on the pitch who’s a fan favorite, has a great presence, and his calm, solid style of play projects on the entire defensive line. In a young team like Beitar, those qualities are simply indispensable.
Furthermore, Cesar reads the game well, and due to his solid passing ability and technique he can also be deployed as a defensive midfielder, adding flexibility to Beitar’s limited squad. Bullseye.
Nacional’s co-captain was a great revelation in the Portugese Premeira Liga. Joining Nacional on a free transfer as a right back, Claudemir quickly blended in. He became a vital part of the club quickly, scoring 10(!) goals and assisting another two as a right-back on his second season. His great versatility was indispensable to Nacional - he played in nearly every position possible, until settling into his preferred position as defensive midfielder. His wonderful stamina and work rate, alongside a great amount of interceptions and successful tackles, have made wonders to Nacional’s midfield. The team landed the surprising 5th place, and Ferreira earned the co-captain armband. His excellent defending, alongside his great long shots who make him an offensive threat as well, have caught the eye of Koretzki, Beitar’s head coach, who decided to sign him at any cost. Similar to Arzo, Claudemir’s massive experience, great versatility and overall ability should make him a wonderful capture. With the determined, technical, young midfield Beitar has, Claudemir has all the reasons to succeed in Beitar.
The ex-U19 National Greek captain didn’t believe he would find himself in a bottom Israeli club at this stage of his career. When he was just 18, he was bought by Greek superpower Olympiakos, just after the club secured another championship. But the move was too sharp for the promising youngster, who failed to get a place in the first team for too long at a critical age. Ever since, Giannis has yet to find himself. Poor club pickings and different managers that has tried him in different positions has hurt the talented Greek badly, and despite playing in senior squads for 8 years already , he has yet to make an impact. However, Giannis has the exact qualities to make it in Sakhnin. He’s a tenacious Number 8, with good vision of the game, decent passing ability and a wonderful shooting ability with his left foot. His aggression, pace and ability to support the offensive play are classic for a counter-attacking based team like Sakhnin, and his cooperation with Mvelja should be successful. His true test is to finally maintain his form, for the first time of his career.
Milan Bojovic is on the rise. After a few decent seasons in the Serbian Prva Liga, Milan played a vital part in Panetolikos’ return to the Greek Superleague in 2013/2014, scoring 11 goals in 20 matches. His last season was also solid, having scored another 6 and helping his club achieve a surprising 8th place. So why are we skeptical about his success? Milan is a pivot. His main strengths are his ability to play with his back to the net &feed his teammates, and his good aerial ability, which makes us wonder about his suitability to Bnei Sakhnin. This type of player is very different than what Sakhnin are used to. Sakhnin are best known for their ferocious counter attacks - a style that hasn’t changed in the past couple of seasons, and has brought great success for the club. Their most successful strikers the past couple of seasons were Gadir, Klebat and Bello - all three are extremely pacey strikers. This year, new manager Guy Levi’s moves have shown his intention to maintain that philosophy, signing Papadopolous and Mvelja - two aggressive, pressing midfielders. On the other hand, his best full back, Dedi Ben Dayan, left the club and was replaced by Jovanovic, a left-back with offensive qualities, but dubious on the defensive part, and a poor crosser. These signings raise great questions about Levy’s ability to get the most out of Bojovic, who’s a decent striker, but relies on crosses and possession game – not the style we expect to see from Sakhnin this season.
One of the few bright spots in Lausanne’s poor season, which ended in a relegation. The Slovenian, who despite of his relatively young age already has over 150 official senior appearances, had a solid first season even though he has left Slovenia for the first time in his career. Miha, a classic Number 6, transitioned successfully into a center back half way through the season, and managed to stabilize the defense to some extent. His good performances even won him a few spots in the Swiss weekly dream team despite playing for Lausanne, who finished last by a great par. As mentioned earlier, Miha is a classic number 6 - strong, aggressive, good on the air and excels in the defensive department. Moreover, he possesses solid passing abilities and great versatility in the back. His cooperation with Giannis and Halaula looks like a promising midfield and well fitting to Sakhnin’s style of play.
Igor’s transfer was one of the most surprising signings of the summer. Not because there’s anything unique about his qualities, but because of the chain of unexpected events that led him to Sakhnin.
It started with Eliran Denin’s retreat from Sakhnin even though negotiations were finalized, while Igor has already signed for Polish side Miedz, and already appeared with them this season. In a unique constellation, somehow Igor found himself leaving Miedz and joining Sakhnin.
Igor is an offensive fullback. He has good technique and he supports the offensive play regularly, but he lacks the final touch and is a poor crosser. Furthermore, he tends to lose his position too often due to poor tactical understanding of his role. All of these issues make us wonder what made Sakhnin gamble on Igor - An inexperienced offensive fullback, especially considering he’s intended to take over Ben-Dayan’s part in Sakhnin’s system. Igor’s defensive abilities are very limited, and at times he looks more like a winger than a defender. On top of that, his offensive abilities were never put to the test at a level anywhere near what he’ll need to show in the IPL.
If Igor will succeed we’ll be extremely surprised.
The ex-Nigerian international looks very impressive at first sight. He has a great physique and impressive athleticism, good technique for a tall player and a wonderful left foot. He shoots very well outside the area, and is a decent set-piece taker. But, he still couldn’t make an impact in any competitive league, which raises the question why. While his physical and technical abilities are known, John still falls short in understanding the game and tactical commitment. Despite his high pass completion rate, a quick look shows his passes are mostly to his fellow CM or back to the defenders, while quality offensive passes are rare. Furthermore, he still isn’t too comfortable with his position as a CM, and tends to lose his positioning far too often. On top of that, there’s the mental issue. John has been given countless chances at his previous club, Academica, but didn’t manage to follow through. A combination of average performances, rumors about lack of commitment and stories about late arrivals from vacations resulted in a john’s removal from the squad, and in an inevitable break-up in the end of the season. Due to his long contract with Be’er-Sheva, we don’t believe he’ll be cut off at the end of the season, but from a team with Be’er-Sheva’s budget and ambitions, you could definitely expect better quality than Ogu.
Ovidiu is a late bloomer. Playing for small club Gaz Metan for the majority of his career, it took him quite some time to get his first chance at a major club – Petrolul.
A successful season with Petrolul resulted in his first national team performance, and he has since become a first team player for Romania and a vital part of Petrolul’s success. However, his commitment might have gone too far this summer. Hoban was cut out of Petrolul after allegedly swearing Marius Niculae, Petrolul’s manager, and complaining about favorable treatment towards certain players. However, in a statement from Petrolul’s fans group, they’ve taken Hoban’s side, and claimed that according to their inner resources the club’s version of the incident was biased.
Hoban is a tireless, hard working defensive midfielder, with a notable presence both on and off the pitch. Along his wonderful defensive abilities, he has a solid technique, good passes and is dangerous from outside the box. Furthermore, he can also be used as a center back, which allows great flexibility to his new coach, Elisha Levi, who lacked a top quality defensive midfielder last season. Despite the fact that Hoban might take some time to find his place in Be’er Sheva’s 4-4-2 after playing Petrolul and Romania’s 4-2-3-1, his skills set should make him a natural fit. If Hoban will be able to channel his commitment to the pitch and stay out of fights, he’ll be a wonderful capture.
Vujadin is an enigma. The promising center back was signed by Bordaeux for €1.5m when he was just 20 years old, after impressive performances with the Serbian U-21 National Team, but since failed to make the step forward. A combination of injuries, loans and position shifts hurt the young Serbian, who’s contract was terminated by Bordaeux this summer after picking up another injury in the pre-season. Savic now stands to the test. On one hand, he has great qualities - he’s strong, has a wonderful aerial game, decent technique for a center back, and his versatility allows him to play as a defensive midfielder.
On the other hand, a combination of missing the pre-season, his tendency to pick up injuries, lack of experience and his lack of pace could prove crucial for a bottom table team who’ll face massive pressure on it’s defensive line each game.
Netanya is not where Cristian thought he’d find himself at this stage of his career. For too many years Sarghi was touted as Romania’s next national center back, but he didn’t manage to take that step forward, showing a lack of consistence in his performances. After recovering from a horrible head injury in the beginning of 12/13, that by some reports nearly cost him his life, Cristian finally managed to secure his first team place with Otelul, and barely missed any games until his move to Netanya. But Otelul is a team in a downfall. The team that was once known for it’s impeccable defending, conceded no less than 94 goals in Liga 1 over the past two seasons - nearly twice as much than the 2 seasons before (54). On top of that, Otelul had the 3rd worse defense (lead by Sarghi) and nearly relegated from Liga 1 – a league in a similar caliber and style of play as the IPL. Cristian is a decent center back, but decent isn’t enough, especially when combined with inconsistency. For a club such as Netanya, who are aiming to secure their place back in the top 4 in the coming seasons, Cristian is not a sufficient defensive solution.
Gabriel has been through almost everything in Liga 1. Relegation battles, championships, Champions League - always as an indispensable part of the team. But his Achilles heel is similar to his strength - he has never played outside of Romania, except for an extremely short, unsuccessful period with Rubin Kazan, who purchased him for €500,000 after a series of remarkable performances with Otelul. Gabriel is a wonderful player. Despite his small dimensions, he’s an aggressive, solid midfielder, who’s nearly impossible to pass through. He’s a model professional, who could be a perfect tutor for Netanya’s young squad. Only thing that’s missing for Giurgiu to fully exert his potential is an attacking midfielder to play beside him, after Dudu Caerense was cut off due to an injury. We have no doubt that Gabriel will be a good signing, but his real test is influencing Netanya’s skillful youngsters.
After deciding to release Dudu Caerense due to his injury, Netanya decided to look for a player with similar qualities that could give immediate impact. Which is why Romario’s signing is odd. Let’s start from the end. Romario isn’t injured, but he’s very far from being fit. The Brazilian, who was never known for his stamina or incredible fitness, hasn’t completed a full match since last March. Furthermore, he missed the pre-season due to an injury, and failed his medical tests in Hapoel Be’er Sheva who looked to sign him earlier this summer. Therefore, even if he’ll deliver results, it’ll take long time for him to get back in shape. As for his qualities, Romario isn’t even remotely similar to Dudu, not by quality nor playing style. Unlike Dudu, who’s a top class No. 8 when fit, Romario is a very limited, classic No. 6. He’s very strong and aggressive, tackles well, but lacks pace and has very limited offensive abilities. That means Netanya will have to shift from the planned 4-1-2-2-1 to 4-2-3-1, and Eran Levi’s offensive output will become even more significant. Even if the shift works, it’ll take for time the team to adapt to the new style. With so many changes and adjustment periods needed to make this work, along with the simple fact that Pires is no more than a decent player, we don’t see this signing work out for the diamond city team.
Once a great promise, Daniel is one of those players who took too long to break through. The Bulgarian took 4 years to secure his place in the first team, but nearly threw it away after fighting with one of Levski’s bosses. The altercation resulted in Daniel’s delegation to the youth squad. However, Daniel’s amnesty came sooner than excepted, mostly thanks to his replacement’s poor performance.
Daniel is now on the rise. After a fine season, he was signed by a manager who can get the most out of him - Ran Ben Shimon. Ran is a big fan of rigid, possession football, and puts a great emphasis on set pieces. Dimov, who can build the game from the back due to his good vision & passing, along with his wonderful aerial abilities and talent for scoring goals from set pieces, can be a perfect match.
On the contrary, as mentioned before, his lack of pace could be crucial, especially in a mid-table club. If Ran will manage to implement his possession philosophy with The Blues, thus covering for Daniel’s main weaknesses, Dimov could be a great success.
Joachim has suffered a string of tough seasons. After failing to find his place with Turkish side Genclerbirgili, he took part in two consecutive relegations in the Belgian Juliper Pro League, with both Beerschot and Mons. So, what makes us believe Joachim will be a success? It comes down to two major points. First, despite lacking tactical discipline, Joachim has great technique, and a combination of two rare abilities for an IPL player - Great pace alongside the ability to cross while running. Due to Ben-Shimon’s classic 4-5-1, Joachim is expected to have much room when counter-attacking, allowing him to get the most out of his limited qualities. The second reason is the capture of Kostadin Hazurov. Kostadin, a hard- working striker who’s good on the air and possesses pivot abilities, should make a great partner for Mununga. His consistent movement will open up channels in the opponent’s defense for Mununga to exploit, while his ability play with his back to the net and the fact that he wins many balls off the opponent’s defense will make Mununga’s speed and movement clinical. It’ll be very interesting to see how much tactical freedom a strict manager such as Ben-Shimon will grant Joachim. If Joachim will focus on doing what he does best, we expect him to have a great season.
After keeping most of their squad after their sensational promotion season, Ra’anana only needed a few tweaks in order to avoid the second season syndrome. Their lack of physique in midfield was notable, and was the first issue Ra’anana aimed to solve this transfer window. That is why the acquisition of Pedro is disappointing. While he is a classic No.6 – Strong and a good tackler - He has no ability to support the offensive play, and doesn’t possess the ability to launch counter attacks quickly after winning the ball. As Ra’anana are not going to dominate most of their games, and are going to be pretty dependent on counter attacks, especially with such fast and technical attacking players, Pedro is simply the wrong player for them. The fact that he was signed very soon in the window, makes us wonder what was the great rush to sign him, especially considering the fact that he couldn’t make any real impact previously in his career, playing for similar quality teams in similar quality leagues. Bottom line, Pedro is far from the quality we’re used to see from Ra’anana’s foreign signings, and we predict he won’t leave a mark this season.
Signing for Ra’anana is a dream come true for Evans. The young Zambian was on the radar of several African teams, with the most notable one being Orlando Pirates, but he was only interested in one thing - a move to Europe. That’s why he agreed to trial for Recreativo for 6 months, while giving up competitive football for nearly a year in the process. Unfortunately for him, despite impressing Recreativo’s staff, disagreements between The Spaniards and Nkana killed the deal. Evans returned to Nkana extremely disappointed – But ended up giving the best season of his career, scoring 8 goals in 14 appearances for his team and another 2 for the Zambia national team. His great season attracted interest from Orlando Pirates once again, but when the offer from Ra’anana came, there was no doubt where Evans will sign. Evans is an enigma to us, as African prospects are very hard to asses from long distance due to poor coverage. But on paper, it seems like a wonderful capture - a low cost loan with a low buyout clause for a national team striker who’s only 21 and has already proven his scoring ability. Furthermore, the fact that Ra’anana’s squad is better than their relegation contenders allows them the comfort of taking chances with talented African youngsters - a market they’ve already seen success in with past signings.
The Cameroonian is troublesome. Some managers didn’t want to go near him, others took a chance and got burned. He constantly criticized managers, teammates, and if that isn’t enough, he allegedly hit his wife, has another child outside of his marriage, and picked up 64 yellow cards and 7 red ones in his career and was suspended for prolonged sessions - as a striker! But there’s one thing you can’t take from Mohamodou - he’s a mean goal machine, that always delivers. In the past 3 seasons, Mohamodou scored a whopping 58 goals and assisted another 26 in 98 performances - an amazing rate of 0.86 goal involvement per match. He qualified with no less than 3 teams to the Bundesliga, where he also did well. Mohamodou is an extremely tall, strong classic No.9, who plays well with both face and back to the goal. Despite his height, he has a good technique, and he excels in keeping control of the ball. He’s nearly unstoppable in the air - In addition to his height, he has a great jump, positioning and headers. Furthermore, even at his advanced age, he’s in a great shape, and he hasn’t lost too much of his pace. He creates many chances for his teammates both by passing and by consistent movement. This makes him a perfect match for Haifa, who has wonderful crossers such as Tawatha, Rayo & Ezra, as well as good scorers who can make wonders with the spaces he’ll create. If Mohamadou will blend well and manage to finally control himself, he will be unstoppable. However, if he goes back to his past behavior, conflicts with other emotional players (Ezra, Tawatha, Stojkovic & Abuhazira) might lead to a massive tear in the greens dressing room.
It’s a wonder Vladimir is still alive. One of the most colorful figures to ever land here is one of Red Stars’ fanatics most hated people in the world, and the chain of events he went through over the past few years could easily turn this review into a breathtaking story – but we’re here to talk football.
Professionally, the Serbian international is one of the best goalkeepers to ever sign in the IPL. His reflexes are unbelievable, he has a great one on one, and he’s an extremely influential character. Furthermore, he’s a great penalty stopper, and excels at big, stressed clashes. if it weren’t for his mediocre aerial game and tendency to lose concentration, he could have played for the biggest clubs in Europe.
Stojanevic, who coached Vladimir in Partizan, knows exactly what he was getting - a top quality goalkeeper, who’ll make an embarrassing mistake every once in a while, but will win lot of points. If Haifa’s fans will learn to live with the occasional mistakes, and if Vladimir will finally manage to focus purely on football, Haifa will win the jackpot.
It’s very rare that a player like Michel comes to the IPL. Not just because of his high profile, but because the Deep Lying Playmaker role has yet to make ‘Aliyah’ to the IPL. Most Israeli coaches believe in the classic No. 6 to man the defensive midfielder position, but Stanojevic came with a different vision in mind. For two months, Haifa looked for a defensive midfielder that will match Stanojevic style of play – And it looks like they’ve found him. To those unfamiliar with the role, the Deep Lying Playmaker is a playmaker who plays in the defensive midfielder position, navigates the game from the back and supports the offensive play when needed, but is in charge of the defensive work as well. The best examples are Xavi Alonso and Daniel De Rossi. Obviously, Michel is nowhere near their caliber, but he has a very rare combination of qualities in the IPL view. First off, in addition to his good technique and vision, Michel is a wonderful passer, for both short and long distances. As a result, he’s wonderful in shifting phases, launching counter attacks and switching play to the opposite flank.
On the defensive side, Michel is a very good, aggressive tackler, who wins the ball a lot but also gets the occasional card here and there. He reads the game well, and rarely loses his position. His qualities make him perfect for Haifa - a team who controls the game and deals with extremely defensive opponents. Furthermore, due to his abilities to shift phases, his combination with quick quality wingers like Haifa’s are a great weapon in top clubs clashes and European competitions. He’ll take time to get back in shape, but once he does, we already count a third promising signing for The Greens.
Pace - this is what the Canadian international is all about. Growing up as a sprinter, Tosaint has developed immense acceleration alongside impressive physiques, before he began his career as a footballer.
But Tosaint’s late start of his career is quite notable. Despite using his pace advantage to reach a great amount of chances, his football basics are very far from perfection - and he has quite poor finishing and technique for a striker. in addition, Tosaint has a very mediocre understanding of the game, resulting in a constant loss of position and a poor scoring ratio. Those poor basics are what stopped his development, after being touted as a great promise following his performances for the Canadian U-20 National Team, and are still keeping him from making the breakthrough, resulting in switching 7 teams in the past 7 seasons, with no notable success in any of them.
Despite the fact that pace is a major factor in the IPL, espicially due to heavy defensive lines, we can’t see Tosaint taking Hapoel Haifa a step forward.
They say a goalkeeper is the most cruel position in the world of football. In Premysl’s case, they’re absolutely right. After a couple of successful loan sessions with Slovan Varrnsdorf, Kovar returned to Liberec through the front door. The departure of former keeper Bicik suddenly turned Kovar, a then relatively unknown goalkeeper, to Liberec’s first keeper. He took the opportunity with both hands, literally. Kovar came back and recorded a fantastic session of 8 clean sheets in 13 matches, helping Liberec to secure the 3rd place and get the Europa League spot. But the following season, alongside his amazing performances, Kovar conceded avoidable goals, resulting in him sitting on the bench for large parts of the season. When he finally got the shirt back, he suffered from an extremely weak defensive line to due Kovac’s injury, resulting in many conceded goals and a final lost of faith from his manager. But Liberec’s loss is Haifa’s gain. Kovar is a classic “Israeli” goalkeeper - He has wonderful instincts, controls the area and supplies great saves, but weak in the air and tends to lose concentration. However, in contrary to their bottom playoffs contenders, Haifa now have a goalkeeper that will earn them way more points than he’ll lose.
The past few seasons were been a rocky road for Mindaugas. After a rough time with Metalurg Zaporizhya, the Lithuanian international had lost his place in the national team, barely played any competitive football, and failed to attract interest from any club. Only a year and a half later, after recovering in the second Polish division and moving successfully to Azerbeijan, Mindaugas not only recovered his reputation, but his phenomenal performances with Ravan and Baki won him both the “2013 Best Lithuanian Player” and “Best Player in Azerbaijan” titles, and his place back in the national team. Mindaugas is a classic No. 10, the “Trequartista” - He combines passing, technique and dribbling abilities with a great sense for scoring, and possesses a decent pace, but his defensive abilities are nearly non existent, and he has no physical presence in midfield. He’s an excellent player- but unfortunately, he signed for the wrong club. Reuven Atar built an offensive 4-3-3, but failed to keep any experienced midfielders in the club. Therefore, it’s a matter of time before Atar will have to make adjustments and strengthen his midfield. When he does, we assume one of three things will happen: A) Kalonas will be shifted to a more defensive position, which will reflect his physical weakness and lack of defensive abilities. B) Haifa will go to a 4-5-1 and place Kalonas to the wing - a position he can play, but again, will reflect many of his weaknesses
C) Atar will give up one of his strikers and go to 4-4-1-1 with Kalonas as a No. 10. This won’t be an easy play for Atar, as his new foreign strikers are among the highest earners in the club.
Since none of these scenarios look good for Kalonas, we don’t believe he’ll be a good fit for this season’s Hapoel Haifa.
Benjamin has finally completed his move to Israel. For the third consecutive transfer window, Francis attracted major interest from IPL clubs. It started with Maccabi Haifa, who looked into the possibility of signing him a year ago, continued with Kiryat Shmona, who had already agreed terms but has called the deal off after his former club, Heartland, demanded a higher fee than agreed on, and finally ended with Hapoel Tel- Aviv, who loaned the Nigerian with a buyout clause. The interest seems to be justified - Despite Benjamin’s young age (21), he has already appeared 6 times for Nigeria’s national team, and has been a key player for Heartland. His great physique along with his wonderful pace and support of the offensive play makes him a great young prospect, especially if we’re taking into account the minor fees Hapoel paid for him. Obviously, Benjamin has a great room for improvement, especially in his positioning, decision taking when supporting the offense and his final touch. But taking his age into account, he has time to make those improvements. His potential alongside Hapoel’s limited budget and lack of options will force The Reds to polish Benjamin with great patience, which by our predictions, will be worth it.
- In 2013, we used a prediction model to estimate which foreign signings will be successful. Our model accurately predicted 77% of signings.
- Our model includes several parameters, including statistical analysis of the player’s performance, cross- referencing of the player’s skills against the team’s style of play & IPL requirements, background checks and video analysis. - According to our predictions, teams will show a significant improvement this season – 56% success, compared to 22% in 2013/14 and 35% in 2012/13.
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