Germany’s nuclear phase-out

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- The German Power System
- History of phase-out decisions
- Electricity Prices
- Import Export Effects

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Germany’s nuclear phase-out

  1. 1. Germany’s nuclear phase-out Charlotte Loreck Energy and Climate Division Öko-Institut e.V. Berlin
  2. 2. Content• The German Power System• History of phase-out decisions• Electricity Prices• Import Export Effects 2
  3. 3. Gross electricity production in Germany Consumption: 604 TWh 2010: 621 TWh Export: 17 TWh Oil, Others Lignite Renewables 23,7% 16,5% Nuclear 22,6% 18,7% Hard coal 13,6% Natural gas 3Source: AG Energiebilanzen; own figure
  4. 4. History of nuclear phase-out1998 Elections & change of government (Social Democrats & Green)2000 First phase-out deal2002 Atomic Energy Act
  5. 5. History of nuclear phase-outphase-out deal (15 June 2000) 1 Jan. 2000 2670 TWh 2623 TWh !
  6. 6. History of nuclear phase-outElectricity from nuclear power plants - Atomic Energy Act 2002 180 Ist-Daten Projektion Obrigheim Stade 160 Biblis A Neckarwestheim 1 140 Biblis B Brunsbüttel 120 Isar 1 Unterweser 100 Philippsburg 1TWh Grafenrheinfeld 80 Krümmel Gundremmingen B 60 Philippsburg 2 Grohnde 40 Gundremmingen C Brokdorf Isar 2 20 Emsland Neckarwestheim 2 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 6
  7. 7. History of nuclear phase-out 1998 Elections & change of government (Social Democrats & Green) 2000 First phase-out deal 2002 Atomic Energy Act 2005 Elections & change of government (Conservative & Social Democrats) 2009 Elections & change of government (Conservative & Liberal)Oct. 2010 Atomic Energy Act: lifetime extentsion + 8 years for 7 oldest plants + 14 years for 10 least old plants
  8. 8. History of nuclear phase-outElectricity from nuclear power plants - Atomic Energy Act 2010 with life time extension 180 Ist-Daten Projektion Obrigheim Stade 160 Biblis A Neckarwestheim 1 140 Biblis B Brunsbüttel 120 Isar 1 Unterweser 100 Philippsburg 1TWh Grafenrheinfeld 80 Krümmel Gundremmingen B 60 Philippsburg 2 Grohnde 40 Gundremmingen C Brokdorf Isar 2 20 Emsland Neckarwestheim 2 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 8
  9. 9. History of nuclear phase-out 1998 Elections & change of government (Social Democrats & Green) 2000 First phase-out deal 2002 Atomic Energy Act 2005 Elections & change of government (Conservative & Social Democrats) 2009 Elections & change of government (Conservative & Liberal)Oct. 2010 Atomic Energy Act: lifetime extentsionMar. 2011 Moratorium: 8 nuclear power plants shut down immediately for 3 monthsJun. 2011 Atomic Energy Act: phase-out 9
  10. 10. History of nuclear phase-out Atomic Energy Act 2011: 8 plants stay off, 9 running until 2015 - 2022Source: http://de.wikiactu.com/ 10
  11. 11. History of nuclear phase-outElectricity from nuclear power plants - Atomic Energy Act 2011 180 Obrigheim Ist-Daten Projektion Stade 160 Biblis A Neckarwestheim 1 140 Biblis B Brunsbüttel 120 Isar 1 Unterweser 100 Philippsburg 1TWh Grafenrheinfeld 80 Krümmel Gundremmingen B 60 Philippsburg 2 Grohnde 40 Gundremmingen C Brokdorf Isar 2 20 Emsland Neckarwestheim 2 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 11
  12. 12. Possible quick substitutionsfor nuclear power plants 21 GW 20,5 GW (17 plants) 5 GW 2,8 GW 2 GW 2,5 GW 8,7 GW operating moth- DSM capacitiy additional nuclear capacity balled under capacity capacity capacity construction (RES & gas) 12 (net)
  13. 13. Effect on electricity prices 13
  14. 14. Merit order 120 Laufwasser Laufwasser Water PV PV Photovoltaics Wind Wind Wind 100 Biomasse Biomass Biomasse Kernenergie Nuclear Kernenergie Braunkohle Lignite Braunkohle 80 Steinkohle Hard coal Steinkohle price Erdgas Erdgas gas Natural Heizöl Oil Heizöl€/MWh 60 40 20 0 Capacity (GW) 14 demand
  15. 15. Observed effects on electricity prices- short term 80 70 60 50 40€/MWh Phelix Future Peak 2012 Phelix Future Peak 2011-Q2 30 Phelix Future Peak 2011-Q3 20 Phelix Future Base 2012 Phelix Future Base 2011-Q2 10 Phelix Future Base 2011-Q3 0 Data: EEX; own figure 15
  16. 16. Observed effects on electricity prices- long termSource: EEX 16
  17. 17. (Nuclear) imports? 17
  18. 18. Typical load flow situationSource: BDEW 18
  19. 19. Daily net physical load flowsGermany – neighbours Spring 2011Source: BDEW 19
  20. 20. Monthly net physical load flowsGermany – neighbours 3000 1 2011 2000 2 GWh 1000 3 4 0 5 6 ‐1000 7 ‐2000 8 AT CH CZ DK FR LU NL PL SE 3000 1 2010 2 2000 3 4 1000 5 GWh 6 0 7 8 ‐1000 9 10 ‐2000 11 AT CH CZ DK FR LU NL PL SE 12 20Data: Entso-e, own figure
  21. 21. Traded flowsCzech Republic - GermanySource: BNetzA, Auswirkungen des Kernkraftwerk-Moratoriums, 26.Mai 2011 21
  22. 22. Net physical load flows Czech Republic - Germany March 14th 2011 3.000 2007 2008 2.500 2009 2010 2.000 2011 1.500 1.000MW 500 0 -500 -1.000 -1.500 -2.000 0 168 336 504 672 840 1008 1176 1344 1512 1680 1848 2016 2184 2352 2520 2688 2856 3024 3192 3360 3528 3696 3864 4032 4200 4368 4536 4704 4872 hours since March 1st 22 Data: Entso-e, own figure
  23. 23. Wind, Solar, Import - Export 23Source: BNetzA
  24. 24. Conclusions• Nuclear phase-out plans were legally in force for the past 10 years except between Oct 2010 - March 2011• Security of supply: enough replacement options• Small effects on electricity prices• No nuclear imports• Future electricity system: renewable 24
  25. 25. Thank you! www.oeko.dec.loreck@oeko.de 25

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