Electromobility: a trigger for market success of carsharing?

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Webinar - Our Future Mobility Now, 27 February 2012

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Electromobility: a trigger for market success of carsharing?

  1. 1. Electromobility: a trigger for market success of carsharing? Webinar - Our Future Mobility Now 27 February 2012 Peter Kasten Oeko-Institut e.V., Berlin 1
  2. 2. Oeko - InstitutOeko-Institut is a leading European research and consultancy institutebased in Germany which is working for a sustainable future.» founded in 1977, non-profit association» offices in Freiburg, Darmstadt and Berlin» more than 130 staff, including 85 researchers» more than 300 national and international projects per year» clients: European Union, ministries, industrial companies, non- governmental organisations» annual turnover: approx. 12 million Euro 2
  3. 3. Overview of past research projects» OPTUM: » user acceptance, market potential and environmental effects of electric mobility (BEV & PHEV) in Germany by 2030» Future Fleet: » accompanying research on integration of EVs in SAP’s company fleet» E-Mobility Berlin: » accompanying research of the “Smart ed” fleet test in Berlin (in cooperation with Daimler Corp.)» OPTUM Resources: » global impact of electric mobility on availability of rare resources and potential recycling strategies» LiBRi: » development of recycling strategies for lithium-ion batteries 3
  4. 4. Current project – E-Mob 2050» E-Mob 2050: » research project (09/2011-09/2013) funded by BMU» main goals: » long term market potential of electric and fuel cell vehicles in Germany until 2050 » impact of changes in mobility behaviour and of new mobility services on the market potential of EVs / FCVs » consideration of long term development of the German power sector (with a high share of fluctuating renewable energy generation) » modelling of the long term interaction of EV use and power generation 4
  5. 5. Why talking about sustainable mobility?» EU GHG emission target 2050: CO2 emission reduction of more than 80 % compared to 1990 emissions» growing share of transport sector emissions: ~ 25 % » high relevance of road traffic» no „easy“ options in the transport sector» CO2 emission reduction measures: » technology development » alternative (less CO2-intensive) fuels » change in mobility behaviour, need of new mobility offers 5
  6. 6. Source: infas, DLR: MiD 2008 How cars are used today?» ~ 50 % of car owners use it 3 times a week or less» average trip distance: ~ 15 km» average car usage time per day: ~ 1 h 100% 90% 80%share of cars 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 20 40 60 80 100 6 daily mileage [km]
  7. 7. Market potential of electromobility» study: OPTUM – optimising the environmental benefit of electric vehicles» project partners: Oeko – Institut (lead), ISOE (user acceptance analysis)» stakeholder process: stakeholders from industry, consumer groups and NGOs» market scenario until 2030 derived from user acceptance survey (conjoint analysis) and today‘s car usage patterns (MiD 2008) 7
  8. 8. Example: conjoint task 8
  9. 9. Market simulation (conjoint analysis) Source: OPTUM 100% 80%market potential 60% CV PHEV 40% BEV 20% 0% small car mid-size car large car 9
  10. 10. EV market scenario German government targets: 2020: 1 million electric vehicles 2030: 6 million electric vehicles 7Passenger cars in millions PHEV (large) PHEV (mid-size) Passenger cars 2030: 6 PHEV (small) 5,080,000 PHEV BEV (mid-size) 700,000 BEV 5 90,000 City BEV BEV (small) Total: 5,870,000 City-BEV (mini) 4 Passenger cars 2020: 3 473,000 PHEV 57,000 BEV 2 8,000 City BEV Total: 538,000 1 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1 million electric Source: OPTUM cars 10
  11. 11. User acceptance & environmental awareness Source: OPTUM 35 30BEV market share [%] 25 high environmental awareness 20 rather high environmental awareness 15 rather low environmental awareness 10 low environmental awareness 5 0 small car mid-size car 11
  12. 12. user acceptance & access to public transport Source: OPTUM 40 35 30BEV market share [%] 25 always easy 20 rather easy rather difficult 15 always easy 10 5 0 small car mid-size car 12
  13. 13. intermodal mobility concepts without car ownership I Source: OPTUM 80 70 60respondent share [%] 50 40 small car mid-size car 30 large car 20 10 0 high acceptance rather high rather low & no acceptance (maybe) acceptance 13
  14. 14. intermodal mobility concepts without car ownership & age Source: OPTUM 60 50acceptance (yes + maybe) [%] 40 18 - 29 30 - 39 30 40 - 49 50 - 59 20 60 - 69 70+ 10 0 small car mid-size car large car 14
  15. 15. user acceptance & intermodal mobility concept Source: OPTUM 30 25BEV market share [%] 20 15 small car mid-size car 10 5 0 acceptance (yes + rather low low acceptance maybe) acceptance 15
  16. 16. Electromobility & carsharing» market scenario: domination of PHEVs due to range restrictions of BEVs» development of BEV market: intermodal mobility concept (incl. carsharing)» increased acceptance for BEVs when » high environmental awareness » easy access to public transport » positive attitude toward intermodal mobility concept» benefit of low operating costs is intensified due to carsharingThe future market success of BEVs requires strong link to othermobility options. At the same time, electromobility might be the startingpoint for the development and stronger acceptance of intermodalmobility concepts incl. carsharing. 16
  17. 17. Peter KastenInfrastructure & Enterprises Division Berlin office Schicklerstraße 5-7 10179 Berlin p.kasten@oeko.de www.oeko.de 17

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