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220-4006 
September 8-14, 2014Assessing the November 2014 Races for Oakland Mayor and City Council 
Results of a telephone...
2 
Methodology 
FM3 completed 1,012 telephone interviews with likely November 2014 voters in the City of Oakland 
Interv...
3 
Vote Question Structure and the Modeled Ranked-Choice Vote 
Names and ballot designations for all certified candidates...
4 
Overall Key Findings 
Sizable proportions of voters remain undecided in all four elections, enough to swing any of the...
5The Race for Mayor of Oakland
6 
15% 
13% 
10% 
6% 
5% 
4% 
2% 
2% 
1% 
1% 
1% 
1% 
1% 
39% 
0% 
10% 
20% 
30% 
40% 
50% 
Kaplan 
Quan 
Schaaf 
Tuman 
S...
7 
Undecided voters are disproportionately at the age extremes, independent, Republican, Asian/Pacific Islanders and Afric...
8 
The first seven candidates eliminated by ranked choice voting were (in order): 
Karamooz 
Houston 
McCullough 
Side...
9 
26% 
22% 
16% 
10% 
9% 
8% 
4% 
4% 
Kaplan 
Quan 
Schaaf 
Tuman 
Siegel 
Parker 
Anderson 
Ruby 
1. If the election wer...
10 
26% 
23% 
18% 
11% 
10% 
8% 
4% 
Kaplan 
Quan 
Schaaf 
Tuman 
Siegel 
Parker 
Anderson 
1. If the election were held t...
11 
28% 
24% 
19% 
11% 
10% 
8% 
Kaplan 
Quan 
Schaaf 
Tuman 
Siegel 
Parker 
1. If the election were held today, who woul...
12 
32% 
26% 
20% 
12% 
10% 
Kaplan 
Quan 
Schaaf 
Tuman 
Siegel 
1. If the election were held today, who would be your fi...
13 
36% 
29% 
21% 
14% 
Kaplan 
Quan 
Schaaf 
Tuman 
1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice fo...
14 
40% 
31% 
29% 
Kaplan 
Quan 
Schaaf 
1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of O...
15 
Q2. 
29% 
3% 
3% 
2% 
1% 
1% 
1% 
1% 
1% 
1% 
1% 
1% 
0% 
0% 
0% 
22% 
35% 
Jean Quan 
Jason Anderson 
Rebecca Kaplan ...
16The Race for City Council
17 
55% 
45% 
13% 
9% 
7% 
7% 
1% 
62% 
King 
Guillen 
Blackburn 
Park 
Maxey 
Undecided/ Other 
King and Guillen appear t...
18 
60% 
36% 
4% 
22% 
13% 
1% 
64% 
Broadhurst 
Washington 
Lim 
Undecided/ Other 
Broadhursthas a lead in CCD 4, though ...
19 
64% 
19% 
8% 
9% 
34% 
10% 
4% 
5% 
47% 
Brooks 
Johnson 
Moore 
Nosakhare 
Undecided/ Other 
Initial Vote 
Ranked Cho...
For more information, contact: 
1999 Harrison St., Suite 1290Oakland, CA 94612Phone (510) 451-9521 
Fax (510) 451-0384 
Da...
21Appendix
22 
Oakland Mayor – Ranked Choice Voting Results 
Candidate 
Initial with Undec. 
Initial without Undec. 
2nd 
3rd 
4th 
5...
23 
CCD 2 – Ranked Choice Voting Results 
Candidate 
Initial with Undecided 
Initial without Undecided 
2nd 
3rd 
4th 
Dan...
24 
CCD 4 – Ranked Choice Voting Results 
Candidate 
Initial with Undecided 
Initial without Undecided 
Jill Broadhurst 
2...
25 
CCD 6 – Ranked Choice Voting Results 
Candidate 
Initial with Undecided 
Initial without Undecided 
DesleyBrooks 
33.9...
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2014 City of Oakland Election -- Survey of Voters

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Official poll results from the Oakland mayoral and city council poll commissioned by www.oakmayor2014.com and conducted by FM3 Research.

FM3 completed 1,012 telephone interviews with likely November 2014 voters in the City of Oakland
• Interviews were conducted September 8-14, 2014
• Interviews conducted on landlines and cell phones
• Interviews conducted in English, Spanish and Chinese (both Cantonese and Mandarin)
712 interviews were conducted citywide
An additional 300 interviews were conducted in the 2nd, 4th and 6th City Council Districts, yielding the following total number of interviews in each District:
• 209 in City Council District 2
• 206 in City Council District 4
• 211 in City Council District 6
Margin of sampling error of +/-3.7% for the citywide results
Margin of sampling error of +/-6.9% for the City Council District results
Due to rounding, not all percentages sum to 100%
• Names and ballot designations for all certified candidates in each race were read to respondents.
• The candidates were read in random order.
• Respondents were asked for their first, second and third choices.
• To model ranked-choice voting, undecided voters were eliminated. Supporters of the lowest-ranked candidate were re-allocated based on their second-and third-choice preferences. The process was repeated until a candidate reached majority support.

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2014 City of Oakland Election -- Survey of Voters

  1. 1. 220-4006 September 8-14, 2014Assessing the November 2014 Races for Oakland Mayor and City Council Results of a telephone survey conducted in English, Spanish, and Chinese, and on landlines and cell phones Prepared for: OakMayor2014.com
  2. 2. 2 Methodology FM3 completed 1,012 telephone interviews with likely November 2014 voters in the City of Oakland Interviews conducted September 8-14, 2014 Interviews conducted on landlines and cell phones Interviews conducted in English, Spanish and Chinese (Cantonese and Mandarin) 712 interviews were conducted citywide An additional 300 interviews were conducted in the 2nd, 4th and 6th City Council Districts, yielding the following total number of interviews in each District: 209 in City Council District 2 206 in City Council District 4 211 in City Council District 6 Margin of sampling error of +/-3.7% for the citywide results Margin of sampling error of +/-6.9% for the City Council District results Due to rounding, not all percentages sum to 100%
  3. 3. 3 Vote Question Structure and the Modeled Ranked-Choice Vote Names and ballot designations for all certified candidates in each race were read to respondents. The candidates were read in random order. Respondents were asked for their first, second and third choices. To model ranked-choice voting, undecided voters were eliminated.Supporters of the lowest-ranked candidate were re-allocated based on their second- and third-choice preferences.The process was repeated until a candidate reached majority support.
  4. 4. 4 Overall Key Findings Sizable proportions of voters remain undecided in all four elections, enough to swing any of the elections in the favor of several different candidates. In the race for Mayor, Kaplan, Quanand Schaafare the leading vote- getters, with Kaplan (57.5%) winning the modeled ranked-choice vote over Quan(42.5%). 39% initially undecided In CCD 2, King (55%) wins the modeled ranked-choice vote over Guillen (45%). 62% initially undecided In CCD 4, Broadhurst(60%) wins the modeled ranked-choice vote with Washington (36%) in second place. 64% initially undecided In CCD 6, Brooks (64%) wins the modeled ranked-choice vote with Johnson in second place (19%). 47% initially undecided
  5. 5. 5The Race for Mayor of Oakland
  6. 6. 6 15% 13% 10% 6% 5% 4% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 39% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Kaplan Quan Schaaf Tuman Siegel Parker Anderson Ruby Liu Wilson Williams Sidebotham McCullough Houston Karamooz Undecided/Other Kaplan57.5% Quan42.5% Kaplan, Quanand Schaafare the leading vote-getters – and Kaplan wins the modeled ranked choice voting – though two in five voters are undecided. 1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were… Initial Vote Ranked Choice Result <1% <1%
  7. 7. 7 Undecided voters are disproportionately at the age extremes, independent, Republican, Asian/Pacific Islanders and African-Americans. 1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were… Demographic Group Undecided/DK % of Electorate All Voters 39% 100% Ages 18-29 48% 12% Ages 75+ 48% 8% Independents Ages 18-49 47% 15% City Council District 3 46% 16% Asians/Pacific Islanders 46% 10% Chinese 46% 7% Women Ages 18-49 45% 25% 1+ Independent Households 44% 21% African-American 43% 28% Independent Women 43% 12% Republicans 43% 6%
  8. 8. 8 The first seven candidates eliminated by ranked choice voting were (in order): Karamooz Houston McCullough Sidebotham Williams Wilson Liu
  9. 9. 9 26% 22% 16% 10% 9% 8% 4% 4% Kaplan Quan Schaaf Tuman Siegel Parker Anderson Ruby 1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were… 8thRCV Round 9thRCV Round Ruby was eliminated in the 8thround, and many of her supporters went to Schaaf. 26% 23% 18% 11% 10% 8% 4% 2nd/3rd Choice Not Made or Previously Eliminated 10% 35% 12% 6% 0% 0% 0% 37% Kaplan Quan Schaaf Tuman Siegel Parker Anderson Ruby
  10. 10. 10 26% 23% 18% 11% 10% 8% 4% Kaplan Quan Schaaf Tuman Siegel Parker Anderson 1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were… 9thRCV Round 10thRCV Round Anderson was the next to be eliminated, and many of his supporters were unallocated. 28% 24% 19% 11% 10% 8% 13% 3% 0% 0% 55% 27% 2% Kaplan Quan Schaaf Tuman Siegel Parker Anderson 2nd/3rd Choice Not Made or Previously Eliminated
  11. 11. 11 28% 24% 19% 11% 10% 8% Kaplan Quan Schaaf Tuman Siegel Parker 1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were… 10thRCV Round 11thRCV Round A sizable portion of Parker’s supporters went to Kaplan. 32% 26% 20% 12% 10% 6% 5% 9% 3% 40% 37% Kaplan Quan Schaaf Tuman Siegel Parker 2nd/3rd Choice Not Made or Previously Eliminated
  12. 12. 12 32% 26% 20% 12% 10% Kaplan Quan Schaaf Tuman Siegel 1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were… 11thRCV Round 12thRCV Round Like Anderson, many of Siegel’s supporters were unallocated once he was eliminated. 36% 29% 21% 14% 12% 5% 5% 55% 22% Kaplan Quan Schaaf Tuman Siegel 2nd/3rd Choice Not Made or Previously Eliminated
  13. 13. 13 36% 29% 21% 14% Kaplan Quan Schaaf Tuman 1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were… 12thRCV Round 13thRCV Round Tuman’ssupporters tended to move to Schaafor be unallocated. 40% 31% 29% 5% 40% 47% 8% Kaplan Quan Schaaf Tuman 2nd/3rd Choice Not Made or Previously Eliminated
  14. 14. 14 40% 31% 29% Kaplan Quan Schaaf 1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were… 13th RCV Round 14th RCV Round Quan narrowly beat out Schaaf in the final elimination, though Schaaf supporters were not likely to support either Kaplan or Quan. 57.5% 10% 42.5% 70% 21% 2nd/3rd Choice Not Made or Previously Eliminated
  15. 15. 15 Q2. 29% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 22% 35% Jean Quan Jason Anderson Rebecca Kaplan Dan Siegel Ken Houston Saied Karamooz Peter Liu Bryan Parker Libby Schaaf Nancy Sidebotham Joe Tuman Charles Williams Pat McCullough Courtney Ruby Eric Wilson No one/Could vote for any Don't know Respondents were asked: “Is there any candidate for Mayor of Oakland that you would nevervote for?”
  16. 16. 16The Race for City Council
  17. 17. 17 55% 45% 13% 9% 7% 7% 1% 62% King Guillen Blackburn Park Maxey Undecided/ Other King and Guillen appear to be the top two contenders – with King wining the modeled ranked choice voting – though more than three in five voters are undecided. Initial Vote Ranked Choice Result 3. In your area, there are fivecandidates for City Council, and similar to the election for mayor, you can vote for up to threeof them. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for City Council if the candidates were…
  18. 18. 18 60% 36% 4% 22% 13% 1% 64% Broadhurst Washington Lim Undecided/ Other Broadhursthas a lead in CCD 4, though more than three in five voters are undecided. Initial Vote Ranked Choice Result 4. In your area, there are threecandidates for City Council, and similar to the election for mayor, you can vote for up to threeof them. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for City Council if the candidates were…
  19. 19. 19 64% 19% 8% 9% 34% 10% 4% 5% 47% Brooks Johnson Moore Nosakhare Undecided/ Other Initial Vote Ranked Choice Result 5. In your area, there are fourcandidates for City Council, and similar to the election for mayor, you can vote for up to threeof them. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for City Council if the candidates were… While nearly half of voters are undecided, Brooks enjoys a three-to-one lead in CCD 6.
  20. 20. For more information, contact: 1999 Harrison St., Suite 1290Oakland, CA 94612Phone (510) 451-9521 Fax (510) 451-0384 Dave@FM3research.com Curtis@FM3research.com
  21. 21. 21Appendix
  22. 22. 22 Oakland Mayor – Ranked Choice Voting Results Candidate Initial with Undec. Initial without Undec. 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th RebeccaKaplan 15.1 24.9 24.9 24.9 25.0 25.2 25.6 25.8 25.9 26.3 28.0 32.0 36.4 40.1 57.5 Jean Quan 12.7 20.9 20.9 21.0 21.6 21.7 21.8 22.0 22.5 23.2 24.3 25.6 28.5 31.2 42.5 Libby Schaaf 9.7 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 18.1 18.6 19.6 21.3 28.7 Joe Tuman 5.7 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.7 9.8 10.2 10.4 11.1 11.4 12.5 13.7 Dan Siegel 5.2 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.5 9.7 10.3 BryanParker 4.3 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.9 Jason Anderson 1.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.5 4.1 4.2 Courtney Ruby 2.1 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.1 Peter Liu 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.2 Eric Wilson 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5 Charles Williams 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 Nancy Sidebotham 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 Pat McCullough 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 KenHouston 0.2 0.3 0.3 SaiedKaramooz 0.1 0.2 Undecided/ Other 39.4
  23. 23. 23 CCD 2 – Ranked Choice Voting Results Candidate Initial with Undecided Initial without Undecided 2nd 3rd 4th Dana King 12.9 34.0 34.4 42.9 54.7 Abel Guillen 9.4 24.9 25.2 32.2 45.4 Kevin Blackburn 6.8 18.0 20.8 24.9 Andrew Park 7.4 19.5 19.7 Ken Maxey 1.4 3.6 Undecided/Other 62.2
  24. 24. 24 CCD 4 – Ranked Choice Voting Results Candidate Initial with Undecided Initial without Undecided Jill Broadhurst 21.9 60.2 Ann Campbell Washington 13.2 36.2 Paul Lim 1.3 3.7 Undecided/Other 63.6
  25. 25. 25 CCD 6 – Ranked Choice Voting Results Candidate Initial with Undecided Initial without Undecided DesleyBrooks 33.9 64.2 Michael Johnson 10.2 19.3 James Moore 4.1 7.7 SheredaNosakhare 4.6 8.8 Undecided/Other 47.3

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