Cleantech – renewable energy in particular – will follow one of two types of growthLinear – corresponds to a view that the world will remain much the same tomorrow as it is today. Non-Linear – corresponds to the view that something will force a changePeak Oil, sudden disruptive pricing on renewables, Climate Change.Not qualified to comment on Peak Oil, but am qualified to comment on Climate Change.What event will drive policy don’t know – hurricane, drought attributable in the publics mind, US deciding to catch up with China on Cleantech spendinggeneral awakening on the part of the public.Who knows?
By market pull, I really mean creating and supporting sustained demand for something.XWe all familiar with the typical innovation cycle. Invent something, learn to produce at economic levels, sell into the market; meet and also create demand.X This is also where MaRS plays; nurturing high-tech companies.This is no longer sufficient, we will not meet our climate challenge waiting for demand for clean energy to magically appear.Again – we’re replacing something that – aside from the externality of carbon – seems to work quite well, and has very strong vested interests.
We remember the Market Pull slide, creating and supporting demand.Green Bonds is a tool to redirect savings/capital; from both the public at large, as well as large institutions like pension funds.Lower the cost of debt, lower the cost of renewable energy production.
Post globe tom rand
Cleantech:Supporting Innovation.<br />March 29th 2010<br />Tom Rand, P.Eng., Ph.D.<br />Cleantech Practice Lead, MaRS Discovery District<br />
Two Types of Growth<br />1. Linear, Free-Market Driven<br />2. Non-Linear, Policy/Event-Driven<br />
Repercussions<br />Need Industrial production that can scale quickly:<br />Commodity-based (eg. Morgan Solar)<br />Simple, scalable manufacturing basis (Morgan)<br />Can be incrementally added to infrastructure<br />Strong industrial partners (eg. Samsung)<br />
What We’re doing Right<br />FIT<br />Local content on FIT infrastructure<br />Attracting industrial giants like Samsung<br />
What We Need<br />Better venture capital environment, risk-taking.<br />Get ahead of the curve on larger carbon debate.<br />Green Bonds – attracting larger investment $ as low-cost debt, eg. Pension funds<br />Develop technology-neutral incentives (non FIT) : <br />Enhanced Geothermal<br />Storage, large-scale and distributed.<br />