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Post globe peter klaassen

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Post Globe 2010

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Post globe peter klaassen

  1. 1. Market Briefing: Gulf Region Post Globe 2010 March 29, 2010 Peter Klaassen, P.Eng, MBA General Manager, Canada
  2. 2. AES - Company Profile <ul><li>Vision: international environmental </li></ul><ul><li> strategies & solutions firm est. in 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Operations in: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Canada </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Bahrain </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Qatar </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Saudi Arabia </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>UAE </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  3. 3. March 20 2005 Background
  4. 4. GCC – Background Information
  5. 5. The Middle East
  6. 6. GCC Countries <ul><li>Gulf Cooperation Council </li></ul><ul><li>Comprised of six discrete Countries </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Kuwait </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Saudi Arabia </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bahrain </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Qatar </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>United Arab Emirates </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Oman </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Each is unique and has its own system </li></ul>
  7. 7. GCC Countries (more information) <ul><li>Rainfall less than 6.5 cm/yr mostly during </li></ul><ul><li>winter months </li></ul><ul><li>Temperatures in summer may exceed </li></ul><ul><li>50 degC </li></ul><ul><li>Mostly desert, arid land </li></ul><ul><li>Majority of population live in </li></ul><ul><li>Urban Centers </li></ul><ul><li>Large Expat Population </li></ul>
  8. 8. Kuwait Population - 2.6 Million (1.3 Million Expats) 17,820 sq km Mostly Muslim population (70% Sunni, 30% Shia) Parliamentary Emirate – 2/3 elected, 1/3 appointed Oil Production: 2.44 million bbl/day Oil Reserves: 104 billion barrels - 10% of world
  9. 9. Bahrain Population - 1.05 Million (.517 Million Expats) 266 sq km Mostly Muslim population (20% Sunni, 80% Shia) Monarchy with appointed Cabinet and with elected parliament Oil Reserves: 125 million barrels
  10. 10. Saudi Arabia Population - 28 Million (5.6 Million Expats) 2,149,690 sq km sq km Mostly Muslim population Royalty with appointed Council and with elected municipal representatives Oil Production: 11 million bbl/day Oil Reserves: 264.3 billion bbl - 20% of world
  11. 11. Qatar Population - 1.45 Million (1.1 Million Expats) 11,437 sq km sq km Mostly Muslim population (90% Sunni, 10% Shia) Emirate with appointed Council and with elected municipal representatives Gas Production: 580 bcf per year Oil Reserves: 910 trillion cf (3 rd in world )
  12. 12. United Arab Emirates Seven Emirates consisting of : Abu Dhabi, Dubai Sharjah, Ajman, Umm al Qaiwain, Ras al-Khaimah, Fujairah Population - 5.19 Million (4.4 Million Expats) 82,880 sq km sq km Mostly Muslim population (84% Sunni, 16% Shia) Each Emirate is absolute monarchy, with elected President of UAE. Partial Elected Parliament Oil Production: 2.75 million bbl/day Oil Reserves: 97.6 bbl (10% of world) Gas Reserves: 214 tcf
  13. 13. Oman Population - 3.3 Million (.58 Million Expats) 212,460 sq km sq km Ibadhi Muslim 75% (other includes Sunni Muslim, Shi'a Muslim, Hindu) Sultanate with appointed Cabinet and Upper Chamber and with elected Lower Chamber Oil Production: 710,800 million bbl/day Oil Reserves: 18.98 billion bbl
  14. 14. State of the GCC Economy
  15. 15. Sources World Bank and Desjardin
  16. 16. Source – World Bank
  17. 17. Middle East GDP Comparisons Saudi Arabia is the Middle East’s biggest free economic market Canada - $1500 B
  18. 18. Source of data: Emerging With Confidence: Reassessing the Investment Case for MENASA One Year On. By Abraaj Capital, Sept 2009
  19. 19. Light Crude Oil Trend Source - http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/co Estimated that the average cost of finding is $6 and production $5 – total $11 per Barrel Oil Prices expected to go over $100 per Barrel by mid year
  20. 20. GCC Market Trends <ul><li>Rapid population growth (~4% per year)… population to double from 33.5m in 2002 to 67.1m in 2020. </li></ul><ul><li>Rapid economic development. </li></ul><ul><li>Governments increasing spending on public utility facilities & infrastructure. </li></ul><ul><li>All GCC countries in process of privatizing public utility services. </li></ul>
  21. 21. Middle East Economic & Political Risk Ratings (MEDT, 2007) GCC Countries
  22. 22. MENA Investment Projection <ul><li>Capital Investment over the next 5 years will increase from $392 Bn in 2009 to $618 Bn in 2014 , as estimated by Business Monitor International for 11 countries in MENA (*), representing an average 10.2% annual growth. </li></ul><ul><li>As a rule of thumb, an appropriate level of capital expenditure is 20% of GDP. </li></ul>Source – EDC
  23. 23. MENA Investment Projection Source – EDC <ul><li>According to the World Bank, middle income countries in MENA will need to invest the equivalent of 9.2% of their yearly GDP ($75-100 billion) over the period of 2008 – 2015 in order to sustain economic growth prospects </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Of that amount, 33% will go towards the maintenance of existing infrastructure </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>The annual volume of infrastructure projects financed in MENA is estimated to have grown from US$25 billion in 2007 to US$27 billion in 2008, before sharply declining by June 2009 to US$6 billion due the global financial crisis </li></ul>
  24. 24. Not all Good News <ul><li>Slowdown in all GCC countries </li></ul><ul><li>Collapse of Dubai Real Estate Growth </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dubaiworld </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Naqeel </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Oil Revenues have dropped with decrease in demand, and lower prices </li></ul><ul><li>Political Instability with Iran and Iraq </li></ul>
  25. 25. GCC Environmental Market
  26. 26. World Bank Estimate <ul><li>The World Bank has estimated the needs of the environmental sector in the Arab world at US$100 billion over the next 10 years. </li></ul>
  27. 27. Middle East Market Size & Growth Relative to the Canadian Market
  28. 28. Why the Middle East ? <ul><li>All GCC countries state they are committed to securing a sustainable future and are at different stages of creating and implementing their environmental legislation, regulations and standards. </li></ul><ul><li>The GCC countries account for 40% of global trade in oil and the region’s strategic importance is set to grow significantly … by 2020 the region will be supplying over half of the world’s oil needs. </li></ul>
  29. 29. Shukran

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