<ul><li>Economic Update & Outlook </li></ul><ul><li>February 9, 2012 </li></ul>Oklahoma State Treasurer Ken Miller
Office of the State Treasurer <ul><li>The Treasurer is the state’s elected chief financial officer, responsible for protec...
Economic & Budget Outlook OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
Oklahoma economic climate <ul><li>As reflected in gross receipts, Oklahoma’s economy showed growth for a 23 rd  consecutiv...
Oklahoma economic climate <ul><li>The one source of revenue on the decline – the gross production tax – is a key driver of...
Gross Receipts: January 2012 <ul><li>Total from all revenue sources up 8.5% compared to January 2011 </li></ul><ul><li>Gro...
Gross Receipts: January 2012 February 2011 – January 2012 Percentage Variance Feb. 3.8% June 15.5% Jan. 8.5% OKLAHOMA STAT...
Gross Receipts: 12 Months <ul><li>12-month collections are $1.4 billion higher than in February 2010.  </li></ul><ul><li>7...
Gross Receipts: 12 Months $11,283 Dec. 2008 OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov (in millions) $11,283...
Gross Receipts:  Sources as percentage OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov February 2011 - January 2012
General Revenue Fund:  Sources as percentage Fiscal Year 2011 OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
General Revenue Fund Comparison with Estimate - First Half FY-12 OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov ...
Where your money is spent OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
FY-13 Outlook <ul><ul><li>Board of Equalization will set final certified estimate February  21 for use by the Legislature ...
FY’13 Balanced Budget <ul><li>FY’13 Certified Revenues: $6.5 billion </li></ul><ul><li>Other revenues: $329.8 million </li...
Executive Budget FY’12 vs. FY’13 <ul><li>FY’12 Total Appropriations: $6.5 billion </li></ul><ul><li>FY’13 Proposed Appropr...
“ Off-the-top” Funding <ul><ul><li>Executive budget excludes money for specific purposes. Among them: </li></ul></ul><ul><...
Governor’s Tax Proposal OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov Lower, Flatter, Simpler Currently:  7 tax...
What’s driving our growth? OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
Job growth outpacing the nation Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Oklahoma U.S. OKLAHOMA STATE T...
Unemployment rate relatively low Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.g...
Solid corporate profits Top 25 OK capitalized companies’ stock index Feb ’09 $20.47 Dec ’11 $52.18 OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURE...
Stable real estate prices Los Angeles Metro New York City Metro U.S. Average OKC Metro Tulsa Metro OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURE...
Increased drilling activity Source: Baker Hughes & U.S. Energy Information Administration Price per bbl Active Rigs West T...
Must be doin’ something right <ul><li>7th best performing state says U.S. Chamber of Commerce (Up from 14th in 2010.) </li...
Must be doin’ something right <ul><li>13th best on Forbe’s annual “Best States for Business and Careers” </li></ul><ul><li...
Bullish on Oklahoma <ul><li>Our fundamentals are strong: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Energy & manufacturing </li></u...
Stay informed www.treasurer.ok.gov OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
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Oklahoma Economic Outlook 02-09-12

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Oklahoma State Treasurer Ken Miller's presentation on the Oklahoma Economic Outlook at Oklahoma Association of REALTORS® 2012 Leadership Development Conference.

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Oklahoma Economic Outlook 02-09-12

  1. 1. <ul><li>Economic Update & Outlook </li></ul><ul><li>February 9, 2012 </li></ul>Oklahoma State Treasurer Ken Miller
  2. 2. Office of the State Treasurer <ul><li>The Treasurer is the state’s elected chief financial officer, responsible for protecting taxpayer money, safeguarding the financial health of the state and promoting responsible fiscal policy. </li></ul><ul><li>Oversees more than $22 billion deposited each year. </li></ul><ul><li>Manages investment of more than $5 billion on a daily basis. </li></ul>OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
  3. 3. Economic & Budget Outlook OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
  4. 4. Oklahoma economic climate <ul><li>As reflected in gross receipts, Oklahoma’s economy showed growth for a 23 rd consecutive month in January as all but one revenue stream improved over the same month of the prior year. </li></ul>OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
  5. 5. Oklahoma economic climate <ul><li>The one source of revenue on the decline – the gross production tax – is a key driver of Oklahoma’s economy and could moderate growth going forward until natural gas supply is reduced and prices rebound. </li></ul>OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
  6. 6. Gross Receipts: January 2012 <ul><li>Total from all revenue sources up 8.5% compared to January 2011 </li></ul><ul><li>Gross income tax up 10.1% </li></ul><ul><li>Sales tax up 10.2% </li></ul><ul><li>Gross production down 7.4% </li></ul>OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
  7. 7. Gross Receipts: January 2012 February 2011 – January 2012 Percentage Variance Feb. 3.8% June 15.5% Jan. 8.5% OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
  8. 8. Gross Receipts: 12 Months <ul><li>12-month collections are $1.4 billion higher than in February 2010. </li></ul><ul><li>73% of the revenue lost from December 2008’s peak recovered. </li></ul><ul><li>Income tax collections up 14% from trailing 12 months. </li></ul>OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
  9. 9. Gross Receipts: 12 Months $11,283 Dec. 2008 OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov (in millions) $11,283 Dec. 2008 $9,364 Feb. 2010 $10,760 Jan. 2012
  10. 10. Gross Receipts: Sources as percentage OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov February 2011 - January 2012
  11. 11. General Revenue Fund: Sources as percentage Fiscal Year 2011 OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
  12. 12. General Revenue Fund Comparison with Estimate - First Half FY-12 OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov in millions +9.7% +18.3% +1.8% +33.4% -1.1% -4.1%
  13. 13. Where your money is spent OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
  14. 14. FY-13 Outlook <ul><ul><li>Board of Equalization will set final certified estimate February 21 for use by the Legislature for the FY’13 budget. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Waiting to see if other sources of revenue will offset the decline in natural gas extraction revenue since the preliminary estimate in December. </li></ul></ul>OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
  15. 15. FY’13 Balanced Budget <ul><li>FY’13 Certified Revenues: $6.5 billion </li></ul><ul><li>Other revenues: $329.8 million </li></ul><ul><li>Impact of tax cut: -$124.4 million </li></ul><ul><li>Supplemental approps: -$88.7 million </li></ul><ul><li>Total Budget: $6.7 billion </li></ul>OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
  16. 16. Executive Budget FY’12 vs. FY’13 <ul><li>FY’12 Total Appropriations: $6.5 billion </li></ul><ul><li>FY’13 Proposed Appropriations: $6.6 billion </li></ul><ul><li>Difference: 1.9% </li></ul>OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
  17. 17. “ Off-the-top” Funding <ul><ul><li>Executive budget excludes money for specific purposes. Among them: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>$297.4 million taken from income tax for transportation </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>$57 million for “Oklahoma’s Promise,” the Oklahoma Higher Learning Access Program </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
  18. 18. Governor’s Tax Proposal OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov Lower, Flatter, Simpler Currently: 7 tax brackets Rates from ½% to 5.25% Families owe tax from first dollar Top rate at $15,900 Proposed: 3 tax brackets Rates from 2.25% to 3.5% Families owe no tax below $15,000 Top rate at $70,000
  19. 19. What’s driving our growth? OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
  20. 20. Job growth outpacing the nation Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Oklahoma U.S. OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
  21. 21. Unemployment rate relatively low Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov 8.3% 6.1% Oklahoma U.S.
  22. 22. Solid corporate profits Top 25 OK capitalized companies’ stock index Feb ’09 $20.47 Dec ’11 $52.18 OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
  23. 23. Stable real estate prices Los Angeles Metro New York City Metro U.S. Average OKC Metro Tulsa Metro OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
  24. 24. Increased drilling activity Source: Baker Hughes & U.S. Energy Information Administration Price per bbl Active Rigs West Texas Intermediate Crude Active Oklahoma Rigs OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
  25. 25. Must be doin’ something right <ul><li>7th best performing state says U.S. Chamber of Commerce (Up from 14th in 2010.) </li></ul><ul><li>3rd lowest cost of living </li></ul><ul><li>4th highest growth in Gross State Product </li></ul><ul><li>6th highest growth in per capita income </li></ul>OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
  26. 26. Must be doin’ something right <ul><li>13th best on Forbe’s annual “Best States for Business and Careers” </li></ul><ul><li>OKC ranks 6th most favorable business community by Wall Street Journal </li></ul><ul><li>Oklahoma had 3% year-over-year employment growth -- better than all neighboring states. (Texas is next with 2.2%) </li></ul>OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
  27. 27. Bullish on Oklahoma <ul><li>Our fundamentals are strong: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Energy & manufacturing </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Employment </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Corporate profits </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Banks & real estate prices </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Quality of life </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul>OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov
  28. 28. Stay informed www.treasurer.ok.gov OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER KEN MILLER www.treasurer.ok.gov

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