Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Green Talks LIVE - Responding to Rising Seas

128 views

Published on

Coastal regions are extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, due to their exposure to the combined effects of sea level rise and intense storm events. Coastal risks are set to intensify in the future, with the potential to bring unprecedented costs to livelihoods and economies.

How can governments identify, prepare for and respond to these risks?

On 6 March, 2019 Lisa Danielson of the OECD Environment Directorate and Alexander Bisaro of the Global Climate Forum discussed how OECD countries are responding to these risks, and what more could be done in the future.

Published in: Environment
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Green Talks LIVE - Responding to Rising Seas

  1. 1. 1 Responding to Rising Seas OECD #GreenTalks LIVE 6 March 2019 @OECD_ENV Lisa Danielson, OECD Environment Alexander Bisaro, Global Climate Forum
  2. 2. 1. The challenge of coastal adaptation 2. Future costs of sea-level rise and policy implications 3. What countries are currently doing 4. What else can be done 2 Presentation overview
  3. 3. Why focus on coastal adaptation? Sea level rise will bring more frequent and severe flooding to coastal areas Hypothesis: Current institutional arrangements are not well equipped to deal with rising coastal risks 3
  4. 4. Understanding the problem Current approaches What works What policy tools are OECD countries using to reduce coastal risks? What is the extent of the problem? Why aren’t risks internalized into decisions? What aspects of the national context support, or hinder, adaptation at the local level? What are the elements of an effective response? Literature review Modelling Scan of adaptation plans & other grey literature Case studies (U.K., Canada, Germany, New Zealand) Case studies, expert interviews Research overview
  5. 5. THE CHALLENGE OF COASTAL ADAPTATION 5
  6. 6. Protect Coastal risks can be reduced by a combination of: Accommodate Planned retreat Avoid 4
  7. 7. Evidence of the problem
  8. 8. Understanding the problem Misaligned incentives for risk reduction Political- economy obstacles Gaps in risk awareness National governments Local governments Property developers Property owners Insurance
  9. 9. THE COSTS OF INCREASING RISK 9
  10. 10. • Main drivers: oceanic thermal expansion; melting from glaciers; Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets • Long-tailed risk from Antarctic ice sheet uncertainty Rising coastal risks – 21st century sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios 10
  11. 11. The economic costs of sea-level rise • Without adaptation, SLR impacts will be substantial across all scenarios (up to 4% annual world GDP by 2100) • Adaptation can reduce these impacts by 2-3 orders of magnitude 11
  12. 12. Investment needs are substantial: up to 70 billion USD by 2100 The economic costs of sea-level rise and benefits of adaptation 12
  13. 13. Robust adaptation to 21st century sea-level rise 13
  14. 14. • For local coastal planners: • Results provide entry point to consider adaptation measures; accounting for timing and flexibility • From a global perspective: • Adaptation makes economic sense for large share of coastal population and assets, but raises key challenges: • Financing of adaptation to meet large upfront costs of public goods • Distributional issues: how to enable adaptation in less densely populated areas and where financing costs are higher Key takeaways and policy challenges 14
  15. 15. WHAT ARE COUNTRIES DOING AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL? 15
  16. 16. Information provision Regulatory/economic instruments Dedicated national funding The role of national governments 16
  17. 17. 25 13 5 What policy tools are in use? Information provision Regulatory/ economic instruments Dedicated national funding NUMBER OF OECD COUNTRIES 17
  18. 18. 25 13 5 What policy tools are in use? Information provision Regulatory/ economic instruments Dedicated national funding Most countries have in place: • Downscaled regional climate projections • Climate hazard maps • A form of coastal adaptation guidance for local governments 18
  19. 19. 25 13 5 What policy tools are in use? Information provision Regulatory/ economic instruments Dedicated national funding • Mainstreaming SLR risks into land-use regulation (e.g. the Netherlands, U.K., Denmark) • Integrating SLR margins in infrastructure standards and building codes (e.g. Germany, Finland) 19
  20. 20. 25 13 5 What policy tools are in use? Information provision Regulatory/ economic instruments Dedicated national funding NUMBER OF OECD COUNTRIES • Very few countries have dedicated funding for coastal adaptation measures • National funding that targets one type of adaptation measure can prescribe and accidentally limit options 20
  21. 21. CASE STUDIES – LOCAL IMPLEMENTATION 21
  22. 22. North Norfolk, United Kingdom Truro, Canada Schleswig- Holstein, Germany Hawkes Bay, New Zealand Implementation at the local level 22
  23. 23. North Norfolk, United Kingdom Truro, Canada Schleswig- Holstein, Germany Hawkes Bay, New Zealand Implementation at the local level
  24. 24. Salt marsh restoration in Truro, Canada The North Onslow marsh body being modified (grey), with area to be restored (blue), aboiteaux to be removed (black) and new/improved (white), old dike (blue with dotted lines where to be breached), and new dike (black lines). 24
  25. 25. Information and engagement • Citizen preferences for government intervention with hard options (status quo) Alignment • Responsibilities spread across different ministries and levels of government Funding • Unavailable or unclear sources Truro illustrates common challenges 25
  26. 26. What leads to successful adaptation? Engage stakeholders early and substantively Plan for the future & prevent lock-in to unsustainable pathways Align actors’ responsibilities, resources and incentives Explicitly consider distributional and equity implications of policies
  27. 27. Impacts will get worse - political and economic challenges expected to intensify Economic case for coastal adaptation is strong, even in the context of uncertainty Incentives set by national government can constrain local action Current focus on information, but there is a need to establish frameworks and set clear expectations Key takeaways for national governments
  28. 28. Read the report & highlights: oe.cd/rising-seas Contact: Lisa.Danielson@oecd.org Thank you for joining us #GreenTalks @OECD_ENV

×