1.
1
Responding to Rising Seas
OECD #GreenTalks LIVE 6 March 2019 @OECD_ENV
Lisa Danielson, OECD Environment
Alexander Bisaro, Global Climate Forum

2.
1. The challenge of coastal adaptation
2. Future costs of sea-level rise and policy implications
3. What countries are currently doing
4. What else can be done
2
Presentation overview

3.
Why focus on coastal adaptation?
Sea level rise will bring more frequent
and severe flooding to coastal areas
Hypothesis: Current institutional
arrangements are not well equipped to
deal with rising coastal risks
3

4.
Understanding the
problem
Current approaches
What works
What policy tools are OECD countries
using to reduce coastal risks?
What is the extent of the problem?
Why aren’t risks internalized into
decisions?
What aspects of the national context
support, or hinder, adaptation at the local
level?
What are the elements of an effective
response?
Literature review
Modelling
Scan of adaptation plans &
other grey literature
Case studies (U.K., Canada,
Germany, New Zealand)
Case studies, expert
interviews
Research overview

5.
THE CHALLENGE OF
COASTAL ADAPTATION
5

6.
Protect
Coastal risks can be reduced by a combination of:
Accommodate
Planned retreat
Avoid
4

7.
Evidence of the problem

8.
Understanding the problem
Misaligned
incentives for
risk reduction
Political-
economy
obstacles
Gaps in risk
awareness
National
governments
Local
governments
Property
developers
Property
owners Insurance

9.
THE COSTS OF
INCREASING RISK
9

10.
• Main drivers: oceanic thermal expansion; melting from glaciers; Greenland and Antarctic ice
sheets
• Long-tailed risk from Antarctic ice sheet uncertainty
Rising coastal risks – 21st century sea-level rise (SLR)
scenarios
10

11.
The economic costs of sea-level rise
• Without adaptation,
SLR impacts will be
substantial across all
scenarios (up to 4%
annual world GDP by
2100)
• Adaptation can reduce
these impacts by 2-3
orders of magnitude
11

12.
Investment needs are substantial: up to 70 billion USD by 2100
The economic costs of sea-level rise and benefits of
adaptation
12

13.
Robust adaptation to 21st century sea-level rise
13

14.
• For local coastal planners:
• Results provide entry point to consider adaptation measures;
accounting for timing and flexibility
• From a global perspective:
• Adaptation makes economic sense for large share of coastal
population and assets, but raises key challenges:
• Financing of adaptation to meet large upfront costs of public goods
• Distributional issues: how to enable adaptation in less densely populated
areas and where financing costs are higher
Key takeaways and policy challenges
14

15.
WHAT ARE COUNTRIES
DOING AT THE NATIONAL
LEVEL?
15

16.
Information provision
Regulatory/economic
instruments
Dedicated national funding
The role of national governments
16

17.
25
13
5
What policy tools are in use?
Information
provision
Regulatory/
economic
instruments
Dedicated
national
funding
NUMBER OF OECD COUNTRIES
17

18.
25
13
5
What policy tools are in use?
Information
provision
Regulatory/
economic
instruments
Dedicated
national
funding
Most countries have in place:
• Downscaled regional climate projections
• Climate hazard maps
• A form of coastal adaptation guidance for
local governments
18

19.
25
13
5
What policy tools are in use?
Information
provision
Regulatory/
economic
instruments
Dedicated
national
funding
• Mainstreaming SLR risks into land-use regulation (e.g.
the Netherlands, U.K., Denmark)
• Integrating SLR margins in infrastructure standards
and building codes (e.g. Germany, Finland)
19

20.
25
13
5
What policy tools are in use?
Information
provision
Regulatory/
economic
instruments
Dedicated
national
funding
NUMBER OF OECD COUNTRIES
• Very few countries have dedicated funding
for coastal adaptation measures
• National funding that targets one type of
adaptation measure can prescribe and
accidentally limit options
20

21.
CASE STUDIES – LOCAL
IMPLEMENTATION
21

22.
North
Norfolk,
United
Kingdom
Truro,
Canada
Schleswig-
Holstein,
Germany
Hawkes
Bay, New
Zealand
Implementation at the local level
22

23.
North
Norfolk,
United
Kingdom
Truro,
Canada
Schleswig-
Holstein,
Germany
Hawkes
Bay, New
Zealand
Implementation at the local level

24.
Salt marsh restoration in Truro, Canada
The North Onslow marsh body being modified (grey), with area to be
restored (blue), aboiteaux to be removed (black) and new/improved
(white), old dike (blue with dotted lines where to be breached), and
new dike (black lines).
24

25.
Information and engagement
• Citizen preferences for
government intervention with
hard options (status quo)
Alignment
• Responsibilities spread across
different ministries and levels of
government
Funding
• Unavailable or unclear sources
Truro illustrates common challenges
25

26.
What leads to successful adaptation?
Engage stakeholders early and substantively
Plan for the future & prevent lock-in to unsustainable pathways
Align actors’ responsibilities, resources and incentives
Explicitly consider distributional and equity implications of policies

27.
Impacts will get worse - political and
economic challenges expected to intensify
Economic case for coastal adaptation is
strong, even in the context of uncertainty
Incentives set by national government can
constrain local action
Current focus on information, but there is a
need to establish frameworks and set clear
expectations
Key takeaways for national governments

28.
Read the report & highlights:
oe.cd/rising-seas
Contact:
Lisa.Danielson@oecd.org
Thank you for joining us
#GreenTalks @OECD_ENV