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Goodess clare univ east anglia

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Expert Workshop on Adaptation Financing and Implementation, Putting Priorities into Practice in OECD Countries, Paris, 18-19 June, 2014

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Goodess clare univ east anglia

  1. 1. Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK Panel discussion: Enabling the transition to climate resilience – 19 June 2014, OECD, Paris
  2. 2. Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) Dynamical and statistical downscaling The impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) community
  3. 3. Approaches to climate adaptation, Dessai and Hulme, 2004 Source: Dessai and Hulme (2007) and Ranger et al. (2010)
  4. 4. So – need to reframe some of the questions:  What are the current priorities for successfully translating adaptation planning into implementation?  How well-suited are current policy approaches to addressing the longer-term consequences of climate change?  How to better engage the private sector in managing the risks and maximising the opportunities of the adaptation? How can professional bodies, trade associations and others be used to assist this process? Climate science can provide evidence and tools • But easier to make the case for adaptation • Than to input effectively into implementation of adaptation
  5. 5. Projected ‘All Europe’ changes in temperature and precipitation extremes, including dryness. For 2071-2100 (wrt 1961-1990) or 2080-2100 (wrt 1980-2000) - GCMs/RCMs and A2/A1B emissions. Tmax (warm days WD & cold days CD) and Tmin (warm nights WN & cold nights CN) Heat waves/warm spells Heavy precipitation (HPD>95thP, %DP10, HPC, RV20HP) Dryness High confidence WD/WN very likely to increase and CD/CN very likely to decrease. Largest WD increases in summer & in C & S Europe, smallest in N Europe. High confidence: likely more frequent, longer, &/or more intense heat waves & warm spells but little change over Scandinavia. Low confidence to high confidence depending on region: likely overall increases & decreases in return periods: strong signals in N Europe particularly in winter, but lower confidence in C Europe & in particular, Mediterranean. Medium confidence: European area affected by stronger dryness with largest and most consistent changes in Mediterranean. See IPCC SREX Table 3.3 for all 3 European regions and full details. Very likely = 90-100% probability. Likely = 66-100% probability.
  6. 6. A look at observed and modelled time series of warm spell duration for 1950-2050 – produced for stakeholders in the North Adriatic • Black is the average of the five RCMS • Grey is the individual models • Red is gridded 25 km observations – which are more directly comparable with RCMs than single station series • Moss green is observations for Bologna • Bright green is the VenFVG 12-station series • RCMs reproduce WSDI fairly well in the first few decades – but underestimate the increased frequency of longer-lasting events over the most recent decade • All RCMs show a continuing increase. For 2021-2050 minus 1971-2000, the ensemble mean change is +10 days (model range is + 3 days to + 17 days) • 2003 is a very extreme year in the observations and is not captured by the models, although they do simulate some very large events towards the middle of this century
  7. 7. IPCC AR5 WGII SPM1 SPM3

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