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Climate change adaptation policies to foster resilience in agriculture.pdf

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Climate change adaptation policies to foster resilience in agriculture.pdf

  1. 1. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION POLICIES TO FOSTER RESILIENCE IN AGRICULTURE 87th APM Session – Item 5 Kelly Cobourn (kelly.COBOURN@oecd.org)
  2. 2. Motivation • Planned adaptation by governments can strengthen agriculture’s resilience to adverse climatic events by developing: – Absorptive capacity: ability to cope with a shock in the short run – Adaptive capacity: ability to adjust in the medium run through incremental changes – Transformative capacity: ability to create a fundamentally new system in the long run
  3. 3. Example: kiwifruit in New Zealand • Production – Green (“Hayward”) fruit – Bay of Plenty region • Challenges – Reduced winter chilling – Delayed budbreak – Yield loss Vanneste et al. (2013)
  4. 4. Example: kiwifruit in New Zealand • Traditional approach: Hydrogen Cynamide (HC) to stimulate budbreak (absorptive capacity) • Alternatives: – Relocation further south (transformative capacity) – New cultivars with lower chilling requirements (adaptive capacity) – Trunk girdling, use of artificial shelters above & below canopy (adaptive capacity) Kenny (2008)
  5. 5. Objectives 1. Identify ways in which OECD member states are investing in climate change adaptation programmes for agriculture – To what extent are concerns about agriculture reflected in adaptation planning? – What vulnerabilities do current programmatic efforts target? 2. Determine how investments potentially support the development of absorptive, adaptive, and transformative capacities
  6. 6. Approach • Stocktake of national-level adaptation programmes in OECD member states – Self-reported activities from UNFCCC reports (n = 69) • Paris Agreement (NDCs, adaptation communications) • National communications (ch. 6 or equivalent of 7th or most recent) – Programmes specific to agriculture • Mixed-methods qualitative content analysis
  7. 7. Results: adaptation & resilience by document type • All refer to adaptation • Heterogeneity in extent of discussion – Annex I/Non-Annex I – Document type • References to resilience relatively rare
  8. 8. Results: agriculture by document type & context • Agriculture most discussed in national communications • Context varies with document type – NDCs: mitigation – ACs: adaptation – NCs: vulnerabilities, adaptation
  9. 9. Results: percent coverage adaptation vs. agriculture • Weak positive correlation between coverage of adaptation and agriculture • Quadrants – High ag, low adapt: concern about ag vulnerabilities – Low ag, high adapt: well developed programmes but less coverage of agriculture specifically High ag, low adapt High ag, high adapt Low ag, high adapt Low ag, low adapt
  10. 10. Results: programmatic development • Strength in aggregate to address key vulnerabilities – Water resources: management & planning – Crop production: soil & nutrient management; cultivar selection & breeding – Decision support tools • Areas with less specific programmatic development – Livestock production: heat stress; pasture quality & yield – Human capital: extension & outreach – Pest & disease management
  11. 11. Results • Current programmes emphasize adaptive capacity • Emerging actions to support transformative capacity – Cultivate partnerships – Collaborative planning – Multidisciplinary research funding – Decision-support tools for transformative change in production systems
  12. 12. Conclusions • Agricultural adaptation is addressed in UNFCCC documents; but significant heterogeneity across countries • Opportunities to enhance information sharing – Depth of programme development in aggregate for water resources & crop production – Opportunities for greater investment in programming for livestock, extension, pests & disease spread • Greatest emphasis on adaptive capacity – Discussion of transformative measures is more general/vague – Future efforts may focus on addressing barriers to transformative change
  13. 13. THANK YOU

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