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CCXG Global Forum September 2017, BG4 2018 facilitative dialogue: Role of non-party stakeholders by Dave Turk

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CCXG Global Forum September 2017, BG4 2018 facilitative dialogue: Role of non-party stakeholders by Dave Turk

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CCXG Global Forum September 2017, BG4 2018 facilitative dialogue: Role of non-party stakeholders by Dave Turk

  1. 1. IEA © OECD/IEA 2017 The role of non-state actors in the 2018 facilitative dialogue Dave Turk, Energy Environment Division Head, IEA CCXG Global Forum - 13 September 2017
  2. 2. © IEA 2017 Value-added of NPS contributing to Facilitative Dialogue ? 1. Taking stock of collective efforts in relation to progress toward long-term mitigation goal: • Expertise to track drivers and outcomes of sectoral change (technology deployment and R&D, investment trends, fuel use, emissions) 2. Informing preparation of NDCs: • Identify most relevant policy, technology, and R&D opportunities by region • Technology cost projections for 2025 and 2030 • Long-term perspective: assess current actions in the context of long- term trajectories
  3. 3. © IEA 2017 Tracking energy and energy emissions data IEA analysis shows that global CO2 emissions from energy did not increase for the third consecutive year even though the global economy grew
  4. 4. © IEA 2017 Tracking technology development Tracking Clean Energy Progress (TCEP) highlights the overall status and recent progress in key clean- energy technologies as well as providing insights to achieve their full potential Electric vehicles Solar PV and onshore wind Renewable power overall Buildings Nuclear Transport Appliances and lighting Energy storage Industry Biofuels Carbon capture and storage More efficient coal-fired power Technology Status today against 2DS targets ●Not on track ●Accelerated improvement needed ●On track
  5. 5. © IEA 2017 Tracking investment trends In 2016, total public and private energy supply investment declined to USD 1.7 trillion. Energy efficiency was the biggest growth sector, although investment in biofuels and solar heating fell by a quarter
  6. 6. © IEA 2017 Value-added of NPS contributing to Facilitative Dialogue ? 1. Taking stock of collective efforts in relation to progress toward long-term mitigation goal: • Data expertise to track drivers and outcomes of sectoral change (technology deployment and R&D, investment trends, fuel use, emissions) 2. Informing preparation of NDCs: • Identify most relevant policy, technology, and R&D opportunities by region. • Long-term perspective: assess current actions in the context of long- term trajectories • Technology cost projections for 2025 and 2030.
  7. 7. © IEA 2017 Local opportunities: Bridging strategy varies across regions The measures in the Bridge Scenario apply flexibly across regions, with energy efficiency & renewables as key measures worldwide United States European Union China India Middle East Latin America Africa Southeast Asia Russia Fossil-fuel subsidies Efficiency Renewables Inefficient coal plants Methane reductions GHG emissions reduction by measure in the Bridge Scenario, relative to the INDC Scenario, 2030
  8. 8. © IEA 2017 Highlighting short-term actions for long-term transition The average carbon intensity of new power capacity needs be at around 100 grammes of CO2 per kilowatt hour (gCO2/kWh) in 2025 and close to zero gCO2/kWh by 2050, requiring further steep reduction. Power Generation 23% Oil & Gas 46% Coal 4% Electricity Networks 14% Energy Efficiency 12% Thermal Power 7% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 gCO2/kWh Historic 2DS average 2DS new build Global fleet average and new-build plants emissions intensity of power generation in IEA 2DS
  9. 9. © IEA 2017 Conclusion: How can NPS contribute inputs to FD? • Analytical inputs: • Submissions to UNFCCC processes • Participation in UNFCCC workshops, events • Potential role in convening sectoral stakeholders • Parallel publication and dissemination of analyses through sectoral-focused fora • Direct bilateral or multilateral work with countries on energy policies, technologies and strategies can also inform NDCs

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