CCXG Forum, September 2023, Simon Sharpe

OECD Environment
OECD EnvironmentOECD Environment
“Without international
collaboration, the transition to
net zero global emissions could
be delayed by decades.”
- International Energy Agency, Net
Zero by 2050
“More effective international
cooperation and credible initiatives
can contribute to bridging emissions
and implementation gaps.”
- UNFCCC Global Stocktake report
HOW THE MITIGATION WORK PROGRAMME CAN PROMOTE
EFFECTIVE INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
Simon Sharpe, Director of Economics, Climate Champions Team
Presentation for IEA-OECD discussion on the Mitigation Work Programme, Paris, 12 September 2023
“Intensive efforts to
support cooperation
and innovation are
essential throughout
the technology cycle”
– UNFCCC Global
Stocktake Report
1. Focus on the opportunities for international collaboration to
make transitions faster, easier, and lower cost
Source: IEA, IRENA and UN Climate Change High-Level Champions (2022), adapted from Victor, Geels & Sharpe (2019)
POWER
Politics: energy security,
electricity costs, coal jobs
Technologies: wind and
solar vs coal and gas
Problem: infrastructure
and markets designed for
old technologies
Influential countries:
China, India, US, Japan,
Germany, South Africa,
Vietnam, UK, Denmark
ROAD TRANSPORT
Politics: costs,
manufacturing jobs
Technologies: electric
motors and batteries vs
combustion engines
Problem: technology
costs, infrastructure
Influential countries: EU,
China, US / California
LAND USE
Politics: food security,
rural development,
consumer preference
Technologies:
sustainable
agriculture practices
Problem:
international trade
flows incentivize
deforestation
Influential countries:
Indonesia, Malaysia,
Brazil, Ghana, Cote
d’Ivoire, EU, China,
India, US, Argentina
2. Structure discussions by sector
Source: fivetimesfaster.org
3. Build on initiatives that are already making progress
Mission Innovation Green Powered Future Mission: agreement to start 5
large demonstration projects in 5 continents by 2024 to test power systems
with up to an 80% share of variable renewables, and share learning.
Need: implement quickly, expand the set, share learning widely
Global MoU on zero emission heavy duty vehicles now covers
20% of the global market in a commitment to 30% HDV sales ZEV
by 2030 and 100% by 2040. Endorsed by >75 non-state actors.
Need: expand to larger share of market, increase tech. assistance
Industrial Deep Decarbonisation Initiative: countries covering 20% of global
steel production working to agree standards and use public procurement to
create first market for near-zero emission steel. Plus >60 companies.
Need: agree near-term procurement targets & actions, increase participation
Agriculture Innovation Mission for Climate: members raised their collective commitment to
investment of over $10bn in sustainable agriculture innovation over the period 2021-2025.
Need: agree standards & regulations for deployment of solutions like low-emission fertilisers
& alternative proteins in global markets
4. Recognise the breadth-depth trade-off in cooperation
Source: Victor, Geels & Sharpe, Accelerating the low carbon transition (2019)
UNFCCC, with universal participation
Strength: high legitimacy
Weakness: shallow cooperation
Independent initiatives
with lower participation
Strength: deep
cooperation
Weakness: low
legitimacy
5. Create a mutually reinforcing relationship between the UNFCCC
and initiatives outside the formal negotiations
The Breakthrough Agenda:
a process to identify
priorities and agree actions
for international
cooperation in each of the
high-emitting sectors
Sector-focused initiatives
Diverse set of initiatives in each
sector, each focused on specific forms
of international cooperation (RD&D,
technical & financial assistance,
standards, demand-creation, trade)
The Mitigation Work Programme:
holds series of sector-focused
discussions, identifies opportunities
for international collaboration,
encourages participation and strong
action in relevant initiatives
Input to MWP discussions:
Advice on priorities for
international collaboration,
drawing on annual reports
of IEA, IRENA and Climate
Champions
Expert input to
MWP on
specific sectors
Helps increase participation,
political commitment, and
investment in sector-focused
initiatives
1 of 6

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CCXG Forum, September 2023, Simon Sharpe

  • 1. “Without international collaboration, the transition to net zero global emissions could be delayed by decades.” - International Energy Agency, Net Zero by 2050 “More effective international cooperation and credible initiatives can contribute to bridging emissions and implementation gaps.” - UNFCCC Global Stocktake report HOW THE MITIGATION WORK PROGRAMME CAN PROMOTE EFFECTIVE INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION Simon Sharpe, Director of Economics, Climate Champions Team Presentation for IEA-OECD discussion on the Mitigation Work Programme, Paris, 12 September 2023
  • 2. “Intensive efforts to support cooperation and innovation are essential throughout the technology cycle” – UNFCCC Global Stocktake Report 1. Focus on the opportunities for international collaboration to make transitions faster, easier, and lower cost Source: IEA, IRENA and UN Climate Change High-Level Champions (2022), adapted from Victor, Geels & Sharpe (2019)
  • 3. POWER Politics: energy security, electricity costs, coal jobs Technologies: wind and solar vs coal and gas Problem: infrastructure and markets designed for old technologies Influential countries: China, India, US, Japan, Germany, South Africa, Vietnam, UK, Denmark ROAD TRANSPORT Politics: costs, manufacturing jobs Technologies: electric motors and batteries vs combustion engines Problem: technology costs, infrastructure Influential countries: EU, China, US / California LAND USE Politics: food security, rural development, consumer preference Technologies: sustainable agriculture practices Problem: international trade flows incentivize deforestation Influential countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil, Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire, EU, China, India, US, Argentina 2. Structure discussions by sector Source: fivetimesfaster.org
  • 4. 3. Build on initiatives that are already making progress Mission Innovation Green Powered Future Mission: agreement to start 5 large demonstration projects in 5 continents by 2024 to test power systems with up to an 80% share of variable renewables, and share learning. Need: implement quickly, expand the set, share learning widely Global MoU on zero emission heavy duty vehicles now covers 20% of the global market in a commitment to 30% HDV sales ZEV by 2030 and 100% by 2040. Endorsed by >75 non-state actors. Need: expand to larger share of market, increase tech. assistance Industrial Deep Decarbonisation Initiative: countries covering 20% of global steel production working to agree standards and use public procurement to create first market for near-zero emission steel. Plus >60 companies. Need: agree near-term procurement targets & actions, increase participation Agriculture Innovation Mission for Climate: members raised their collective commitment to investment of over $10bn in sustainable agriculture innovation over the period 2021-2025. Need: agree standards & regulations for deployment of solutions like low-emission fertilisers & alternative proteins in global markets
  • 5. 4. Recognise the breadth-depth trade-off in cooperation Source: Victor, Geels & Sharpe, Accelerating the low carbon transition (2019) UNFCCC, with universal participation Strength: high legitimacy Weakness: shallow cooperation Independent initiatives with lower participation Strength: deep cooperation Weakness: low legitimacy
  • 6. 5. Create a mutually reinforcing relationship between the UNFCCC and initiatives outside the formal negotiations The Breakthrough Agenda: a process to identify priorities and agree actions for international cooperation in each of the high-emitting sectors Sector-focused initiatives Diverse set of initiatives in each sector, each focused on specific forms of international cooperation (RD&D, technical & financial assistance, standards, demand-creation, trade) The Mitigation Work Programme: holds series of sector-focused discussions, identifies opportunities for international collaboration, encourages participation and strong action in relevant initiatives Input to MWP discussions: Advice on priorities for international collaboration, drawing on annual reports of IEA, IRENA and Climate Champions Expert input to MWP on specific sectors Helps increase participation, political commitment, and investment in sector-focused initiatives