CCXG Forum, September 2023, Joeri Rogelj
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CCXG Forum, September 2023, Joeri Rogelj
- 1. Prof. Joeri ROGELJ Questioning climate progress three dimensions of climate overconfidence Climate Change Expert Group (CCXG) Global Forum on the Environment and Climate Change 12-13 September 2023, Paris, France
- 2. Three dimensions of climate overconfidence relevant to the Global Stocktake Questioning climate progress 12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj Source: ENB, Ken Sklute, R. Butler Progress in pledges Climate projections Overshooting as viable alternative
- 3. We are way off track Contrasting messages about what current climate action brings We are almost there Questioning climate progress 12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj
- 4. Contrasting messages of pledges versus policies Questioning climate progress 12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj Source: Rogelj et al (2023) ‘Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets leaves world at high risk’, Science, doi: 10.1126/science.adg6248 Three metrics to transparently assess net-zero pledge credibility: • Is target legally binding? • Is there a credible implementation plan? • Are near-term policies already putting a country’s emissions on a downward path?
- 5. Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets leaves world at high risk Questioning climate progress 12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj Source: Rogelj et al (2023) ‘Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets leaves world at high risk’, Science, doi: 10.1126/science.adg6248 Three metrics to transparently assess net-zero pledge credibility: • Is target legally binding? • Is there a credible implementation plan? • Are near-term policies already putting a country’s emissions on a downward path?
- 6. Three dimensions of climate overconfidence relevant to the Global Stocktake Questioning climate progress 12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj Source: ENB, Ken Sklute, R. Butler Progress in pledges Climate projections Overshooting as viable alternative
- 7. Climate uncertainty dangerously overlooked Questioning climate progress 12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj Source: Rogelj et al (2023) ‘Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets leaves world at high risk’, Science, doi: 10.1126/science.adg6248
- 8. Climate uncertainty dangerously overlooked Questioning climate progress 12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj Source: Rogelj et al (2023) ‘Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets leaves world at high risk’, Science, doi: 10.1126/science.adg6248
- 9. Climate uncertainty dangerously overlooked Questioning climate progress 12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj Source: Rogelj et al (2023) ‘Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets leaves world at high risk’, Science, doi: 10.1126/science.adg6248
- 10. Climate uncertainty dangerously overlooked Questioning climate progress 12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj Source: Rogelj et al (2023) ‘Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets leaves world at high risk’, Science, doi: 10.1126/science.adg6248
- 11. Climate uncertainty dangerously overlooked Questioning climate progress 12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj Source: Rogelj et al (2023) ‘Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets leaves world at high risk’, Science, doi: 10.1126/science.adg6248
- 12. Three dimensions of climate overconfidence relevant to the Global Stocktake Questioning climate progress 12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj Source: ENB, Ken Sklute, R. Butler Progress in pledges Climate projections Overshooting as viable alternative
- 13. Overconfidence about ease of overshooting Questioning climate progress 12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj Figure source: Rogelj et al (2021) ‘Net-zero emissions targets are vague: three ways to fix’, Nature, doi: 10.1038/d41586-021-00662-3
- 14. Overconfidence about ease of overshooting Questioning climate progress 12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj Figure source: Rogelj et al (2021) ‘Net-zero emissions targets are vague: three ways to fix’, Nature, doi: 10.1038/d41586-021-00662-3 Overshooting overconfidence in: • Amount of CO2 removal required for overshoot due to uncertainty in peak warming • Technological ability of scaling up permanent CO2 removal technologies • Effectiveness of CO2 removal in reversing global warming
- 15. Overshooting is a flawed concept for harm prevention Questioning climate progress 12/09/2023 – J. Rogelj Overshoot concept = aim to fail and hope for the best Peak and decline = focus on minimizing damages until problem is under control and return to safer pastures thereafter
- 16. Thank you Questioning climate progress: three dimensions of climate overconfidence Contact: j.rogelj@imperial.ac.uk