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2016 GGSD Forum - Parellel Session A: Presentation by Ms. Julie Rozenberg, Economist, World Bank Sustainable Development Group

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Investing in Urban Infrastructure in a Changing World

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2016 GGSD Forum - Parellel Session A: Presentation by Ms. Julie Rozenberg, Economist, World Bank Sustainable Development Group

  1. 1. Investing in Urban Infrastructure In A Changing World Julie Rozenberg, Sustainable Development Chief Economist Office
  2. 2. Prediction errors are common
  3. 3. Urban infrastructure investments have very long lifetimes 3
  4. 4. Good Decision Making is Challenged by Uncertainty and Disagreement Shanghai 1990 vs. 2010 Rapid Changes Competing Priorities Conservation vs. Development 4 Uncertain Future Climate Change
  5. 5. Traditional Planning Asks “What Will The Future Bring?” What will the future be? What is the best near-term decision? How sensitive is our decision to our prediction? “Traditional Planning” • Conditions are stable or easy to predict • There is consensus among stakeholders Works well when:
  6. 6. It can lead to overconfidence in our projections “What if I’m wrong?”
  7. 7. What will the future be? What is the best near-term decision? How sensitive is our decision to our predictions? “Predict Then Act” Decision Making Under Uncertainty Runs the Analysis Backwards Develop strategy adaptations to reduce vulnerabilities Identify vulnerabilities of these strategies What are the available strategies? Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMU)
  8. 8. Urban Water Supply In Lima, Peru 8 Robustness test of current system • Identification of no-regret investments • Phasing of investment based on future observation of climate and demand
  9. 9. Urban wetlands in Colombo Rent decrease vs Flood risk, water quality, recreation Impacts on poor and non-poor Under which conditions is the development of the wetlands a good economic option?
  10. 10. Final remark: Stakeholder involvement is key

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