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Green Growth and Sustainable Development Forum,
OECD, 10 November 2016 - Paris
The role of infrastructure for
the energy t...
Paris Agreement
Rogelj et al, Nature, 2016
Investments over the next 15 years will shape
the energy infrastructure for many decades
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
GHG...
China
SouthAsia
USA+Canada
Africa
Europe
MENA
Rest of the world
Stranded assets by Region
Source: MESSAGE model
Current gl...
6
1850 19501900 2000 2050
Source: After G Morgan and N Nakicenovic
Transformational Change
Behavioral change:
Strong feedback effects between infrastructure availability and consumer preferences
McCollum et al. (2...
Perfectly rational consumers (cost-
minimizing behavior)
(mean representative decision agents)
Current preferences & behav...
Buildings sector
Retrofit or new efficient buildings? Major implications for long-term lock-in of the building stock
Urge-...
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2016 GGSD Forum - Parellel Session A: Presentation by Mr. Keywan Riahi, Energy Program Director, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Austria

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The role of infrastructure for energy transformation

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2016 GGSD Forum - Parellel Session A: Presentation by Mr. Keywan Riahi, Energy Program Director, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Austria

  1. 1. Green Growth and Sustainable Development Forum, OECD, 10 November 2016 - Paris The role of infrastructure for the energy transformation Keywan Riahi International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Graz University of Technology
  2. 2. Paris Agreement Rogelj et al, Nature, 2016
  3. 3. Investments over the next 15 years will shape the energy infrastructure for many decades 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 GHGemissions(GtCO2equiv.) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Delays cause “lock-in” and stranded assets (coal power) Meeting the 2ºC targets implies the phase-out of coal power infrastructure without CCS Source AMPERE: Riahi et al, 2015 and Bertram et al, 2015
  4. 4. China SouthAsia USA+Canada Africa Europe MENA Rest of the world Stranded assets by Region Source: MESSAGE model Current global energy-related investments are in the order of 1000 billion Johnsonetal.(2015),TFSC
  5. 5. 6 1850 19501900 2000 2050 Source: After G Morgan and N Nakicenovic Transformational Change
  6. 6. Behavioral change: Strong feedback effects between infrastructure availability and consumer preferences McCollum et al. (2016), Transp. Research Part D PerceivedCosts (non-financialprefs.) RealCosts (financialprefs.) Tech-savvy, urbanite Auto- dependent urbanite Late- adopting ruralist 3 Types of Consumers (different lifestyles, preferences, etc.) Battery technology improves (increased vehicle range) EV charging infrastructure build-out (but range still limited) BOTH battery improvements and infrastructure build-out
  7. 7. Perfectly rational consumers (cost- minimizing behavior) (mean representative decision agents) Current preferences & behavior (heterogeneous decision agents) (Reductions from baseline; LDVs only) Marginalcostofabatement McCollumetal.(2016),Transp.ResearchPartD ? Behavioral change: CO2 mitigation costs in the vehicle transport sector Key questions is how to induce behavioral change? Infrastructure investments 3-15 billion US$ in an initial phase (preliminary estimate)
  8. 8. Buildings sector Retrofit or new efficient buildings? Major implications for long-term lock-in of the building stock Urge-Vorsatzetal,2012

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