OECD Development Centre Recent Research 经合组织发展中心的最近研究成果Development Research Centre of the State CouncilBeijing, June 26, 2013 Mario Pezzini Director, OECD Development Centre
Recent research work at OECD DevelopmentCentre 经合组织发展中心的最近学术研究成果 Related to the 4 flagship publications of the Development Centre
Shifting wealth 全球财富转移 The organising theme of a major flagship – The Perspectives on Global Development 主要出版物之一“全球发展展望”的中心题目 •.2011, 2012 now: 3rd edition •. Main message of PGD 2013: overcoming the middle income trap will imply the need for active innovation policy. •跨越中等收入陷阱的重点是采取刺激创新的一系列的政策
SW = China+ The world’s economic centre of gravity, Mass, growth, duration => SW 1980, 2008, 2050 The world’s economic centre of gravity, • In 1980, the global economy‟s centre1980–2007 (black) and extrapolated, at three-year intervals of gravity was mid-Atlantic • In 2050: between India and China • Economic centre of gravity will shift from its 1980 location 9,300 km, East • China + India = 40% of global labour force • China has superior double-digit growth since > 30 years • „BRICs, Eagles, GGGs‟ Source: D. Quah, Global Economic Policy, Vo.2.1., Jan 2011
SW = China+ China India % of world GDP % of world GDP14% 14%12% 12%10% 10%8% 8%6% 6%4% 4%2% 2%0% 0% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Market Exchange Rate PPP Exchange Rate Market Exchange Rate PPP Exchange Rate
China has successfully diversified its economy andis moving ahead in the value chainOECD DEV used the product space method tocompare “connectivity” (proximity of exportprofile to high value-added products) and“capabilities” (diversified exports not producedby others)采用产品空间方法测算世界各国的”连通性” 与“技能”
Connectivity (proximity of export profile to high value products) – Asia 连通性（更多产品趋于更高的附加值） •Larger countries, even THA, go further in connectivity. •CHN, IND are outliers, the highest levels of connectivity •KOR early gains in connectivity are stopped relatively early in the process. TWN less so. •Overall, this group has reached the area of diminishing returns.
Capabilities (diversified exports ofgoods not produced by others) – Asia• China: (dark blue line)Start already with a highvalue, substantial gains inrelative capabilities onlyfrom 1990 onwards reached world average. world average•India: slow progress incapabilities•Indonesia: rapidprogress, but low startingpoint•Thailand: rapid progress,approached worldaverage capabilities
Capabilities – Asia• Structural transformationoccurs concomitantly withincreases in capabilities. world average• Again, note the highstarting point of Korea andSingapore and thesubstantial above averagecapability measure in 2008.
Capabilities – Latin America• In general below-averageperformance inLatin America.• The exception worldbeing Mexico (high averagestarting value) andslow increaseacross time) andthe stronglydiversifying Brazil(gradual increase incapability rankingover time).
Capabilities – Central America• Substantially belowaverage performancehas improved inrecent years. world average•The case of CRI:despite a highdegree of exportorientation,capabilities are notparticularly high
Input-output analysis – China’s changing role• During the 10 years of 1995-2005 an increasing degree of integration with Asian markets (as suppliers)
The rise of China in global supply chains as a dominant supplier 中国作为全球供应链的关键供给方 投入产出表分析 亚洲各国中间商品和服务的主要目的地 Major trade partners for Asia’s intermediate exports in goods and services -If a country’s intermediate exports (in both goods and services) to a particular partner country exceed a given threshold percentage of that Source: OECD Input-Output country’s total intermediate exports (15% or 20% in our exercise), we Database, March 2010; IDE-JETRO Asian International Input-Output Database 2006; OECD Bilateral Trade consider such a trade node as a dominant link. Database, March 2010; OECD Trade in Services, January 2010.
China’s ties with ASEAN- business cycles increasingly synchronised a) Indonesia中国和东盟的连接 – 经济周期 b) Malaysia Business cycles: composite leading indicators of Southeast Asia, China and India (100=threshold point) a) ASEAN average b) China c) Philippines d) Singapore e) Thailand f) India Note: ASEAN average includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. - The OECD Development Centre’s Asian Business Cycle Indicators show co-movement of the business cycles of ASEAN and China. Source: OECD This Quarter in Asia, Vol. 8, June, 2012
Impact of global uncertainty on China based on historical decomposition of the output gap 中国潜在和实际产出量的差的分解 Historical decomposition of output gap in Asia in 2009-11 (%) b) China a) Indonesia -The impact of global uncertainty (represented as a demand shock) has been limited in China. - The result suggests that in China there is room to improve potential output by enhancing productivity through appropriate d) c) Philippines India structural policies, as, in 2011, technology shocks had a negative impact on output gap. - Furthermore, the effect of monetary policy shocks prove that monetary policies have been relatively well managed so far.Source: OECD Development Centre, MPF-SAEO2011/12.
Relative poverty indeveloping countries发展中国家的相对贫穷率• Calculate relative poverty lines for emerging economies (set at 40, 50 and 60% of median income or consumption) • How? Based on parametric estimations of Lorenz curves for country/year observations 罗伦斯曲线 • Why? Because relative poverty lines are closer to national lines, yet correspond to the same concept improvement vis-à-vis dollar-a-day for international comparisons
Relative poverty rates across the world 世界各国的相对贫穷率% Living below 60% median35 Living below 50% median Living below 40% median30 Living below $1.25 PPP/day25201510 50 Source: PGD 2010, OECD and Garroway and de Laiglesia (forthcoming)
Relative poverty flat or increasingdespite large falls in absolute poverty Brazil China $1.25/day Relative poverty (50% of the median) $1.25/day 50% of the median30% 90% 80%25% 70%20% 60% 50%15% 40%10% 30% 20%5% 10%0% 0% 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Social Institutions and Gender Index Social Institutions and Gender Index 2012 Restricted Discriminatory Restricted Restricted Son Bias Resources Family Code Physical Integrity Civil Liberties and Entitlements • Legal Age of • Violence against • Access to land Marriage women • Access to bank • Missing women loans and other • Access to public • Early marriage • FGM forms of credit space • Fertility • Parental • Reproductive preferences • Access to • Political voice authority integrity property other • Inheritance than land The Social Institutions and Gender Index measures discrimination against women across five areas for non OECD countries
2012 SIGI: by region 2012 SIGI results by region Latin America and Europe and Middle East and Sub Saharan the Caribbean East Asia Pacific Central Asia South Asia North Africa Africa 0 Argentina1= high discrimination 0=low discrimination 0.1 FYR Macedonia South Africa Philippines Morocco 0.2 Nicaragua Nepal China Average Laos 0.3 Top ranking Bottom ranking Azerbaijan Afghanistan 0.4 China 0.5 Yemen 0.6 Mali 0.7The 2012 SIGI ranks China 42 out of 86 countries.In the East Asia and Pacific region China ranked 6 out of9 countries.
Gender inequality in China• China shows the strongest performance in Restricted Physical Integrity sub-index (ranked 5 out of 99) – Strong legal framework to combat violence against women and good access to contraception for women. – Only 2% of women have an unmet need for family planning.• China shows the weakest performance in the Son Bias (ranked 88 out of 95). – Strong social norms of son preference exacerbated by one-child policy. – Severe imbalance in sex-ratios - census data show that more than 40 million Chinese women were „missing‟ in 2000. – Data on the share of the last child who are male indicate strong fertility preference for boys.
Possible collaboration with DRC• In the context of the Perspectives on Global Development on issues related to competitiveness –Competitiveness of services industries –Definition of urban areas following the OECD methodology and use for regional competitiveness analyses