Oecd amro s1 14_oecd mr kensuke tanaka

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2nd OECD-AMRO Asian Regional Roundtable

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Oecd amro s1 14_oecd mr kensuke tanaka

  1. 1. Escaping the Middle-income Trap in Asia - Setting the scene Kensuke Tanaka Head of Asia Desk OECD Development Centre 19 July 2013, Paris 2nd OECD-AMRO Asian Regional Roundtable
  2. 2. Middle income trap issue is complex.  Definition of middle income trap  Growth slowdown or “trap”? Figure Average GDP Growth Rate of Asian countries(%) (source) OECD and IMF
  3. 3. • Country specific structural policy issues to avoid middle income trap – Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam  Different initial conditions  Different comparative advantages - Does growth model have anything to do with the possibility of being “trapped”? (manufacturing or services)  Evolving global environment - Integration of trade and financial markets This session will focus on… (1)
  4. 4. The structural transformations needed to sustain growth to avoid “the trap” are… Cambodia Agriculture Human capital development Reform of financial sector Indonesia Infrastructure Education Social security reform Malaysia Human capital development Labour market SME development Philippines Infrastructure Labour market Education Singapore Labour market SME development Innovation Thailand Education Healthcare system Green economy Viet Nam Human capital development Development of banking sector SOEs reform (Source) Southeast Asian Economic Outlook with Perspectives on China and India 2013
  5. 5. This session will focus on… This session will focus on… (2) • Human capital development, infrastructure, innovation … • The role of institution • Some key policy issues  Productivity –led growth  Financial system - The importance of allocating funds to the most efficient uses  Macroeconomic stability - Capital flows, exchange rates
  6. 6. THANK YOU

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