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Armed Conflict and Forced
Migration Flows
Erik Melander
Professor of Peace and Conflict Research
Deputy Director of
the Up...
Armed Conflict and Migration
Flows: Two issues
• How much conflict (number of conflicts
and intensity)?
• How large migrat...
Armed Conflicts of the World, 2013
Number of Battle Deaths, 1946-2013
Average Migration Flows in
Intrastate Armed Conflict, 1979-2008
50100150200250
AverageForcedDisplacementFlowinThousands
19...
Georeferenced Eventdata
Observed and Simulated Proportion of
Countries in Armed Conflict, 1960-2050.
Source: Hegre et al. (2013), p 216.
Following the War on Terror
and the Arab Spring
• Onsets of armed conflict in relatively
developed countries: Iraq, Lebano...
Norms of tolerance of difference
and treatment of weaker groups
• The fundamental template in all societies (and
all famil...
Not taking into account these norms
• Underestimating risks in North Africa and the
Middle East.
• Examples of countries m...
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Erik Melander's presentation - OECD - PGD Expert Meeting

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Erik Melander's presentation - OECD - PGD Expert Meeting

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Erik Melander's presentation - OECD - PGD Expert Meeting

  1. 1. Armed Conflict and Forced Migration Flows Erik Melander Professor of Peace and Conflict Research Deputy Director of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program
  2. 2. Armed Conflict and Migration Flows: Two issues • How much conflict (number of conflicts and intensity)? • How large migration flows per conflict (the size of the migration flow depends on the type of conflict)?
  3. 3. Armed Conflicts of the World, 2013
  4. 4. Number of Battle Deaths, 1946-2013
  5. 5. Average Migration Flows in Intrastate Armed Conflict, 1979-2008 50100150200250 AverageForcedDisplacementFlowinThousands 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 year Displaced Fitted values Adapted from: Melander, Erik; Magnus Öberg & Jonathan Hall, 2009. 'Are 'New Wars' More Atrocious? Battle Intensity, Civilians Killed and Forced Migration Before and After the End of the Cold War', European Journal of International Relations, 15(3):505-536.
  6. 6. Georeferenced Eventdata
  7. 7. Observed and Simulated Proportion of Countries in Armed Conflict, 1960-2050. Source: Hegre et al. (2013), p 216.
  8. 8. Following the War on Terror and the Arab Spring • Onsets of armed conflict in relatively developed countries: Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Palestine, Syria (Bahrain), Ukraine. • Particularly atrocious wars: Iraq, Syria. • More in line with the model: Afghanistan, Nigeria, Somalia.
  9. 9. Norms of tolerance of difference and treatment of weaker groups • The fundamental template in all societies (and all families): discrimination of women. • Linked to ideals of masculinity that promote violence as a means of dealing with conflict and domination of weaker groups. • Measures of gender inequality predict armed conflict and human rights violations. • Many studies published in major peer-reviwed journals (ask me if you are interested).
  10. 10. Not taking into account these norms • Underestimating risks in North Africa and the Middle East. • Examples of countries missing from the list of most conflict-prone: Bahrain, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Syria, etc. • Overestimating somewhat the risks in highly developed but populous countries in East Asia and Latin America. • Underestimating how many refugees are generated per conflict?

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