Erik Melander's presentation - OECD - PGD Expert Meeting
Armed Conflict and Forced
Professor of Peace and Conflict Research
Deputy Director of
the Uppsala Conflict Data Program
Armed Conflict and Migration
Flows: Two issues
• How much conflict (number of conflicts
• How large migration flows per conflict (the
size of the migration flow depends on the
type of conflict)?
Average Migration Flows in
Intrastate Armed Conflict, 1979-2008
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Displaced Fitted values
Adapted from: Melander, Erik; Magnus Öberg & Jonathan Hall, 2009. 'Are 'New Wars'
More Atrocious? Battle Intensity, Civilians Killed and Forced Migration Before and After the End of the Cold War',
European Journal of International Relations, 15(3):505-536.
Observed and Simulated Proportion of
Countries in Armed Conflict, 1960-2050.
Source: Hegre et al. (2013), p 216.
Following the War on Terror
and the Arab Spring
• Onsets of armed conflict in relatively
developed countries: Iraq, Lebanon,
Libya, Palestine, Syria (Bahrain), Ukraine.
• Particularly atrocious wars: Iraq, Syria.
• More in line with the model: Afghanistan,
Norms of tolerance of difference
and treatment of weaker groups
• The fundamental template in all societies (and
all families): discrimination of women.
• Linked to ideals of masculinity that promote
violence as a means of dealing with conflict and
domination of weaker groups.
• Measures of gender inequality predict armed
conflict and human rights violations.
• Many studies published in major peer-reviwed
journals (ask me if you are interested).
Not taking into account these norms
• Underestimating risks in North Africa and the
• Examples of countries missing from the list of
most conflict-prone: Bahrain, Jordan, Lebanon,
Libya, Saudi Arabia, Syria, etc.
• Overestimating somewhat the risks in highly
developed but populous countries in East Asia
and Latin America.
• Underestimating how many refugees are
generated per conflict?