Despite people’s optimism, emerging trends in the economy, technology, demography, environment, security and governance could undo much of the progress made to date.
In the interests of time, focus in two of the more worrying concerns for livelihoods: Demography: youth bulge Environment: droughts
Carl Dahlman's presentation - OECD - PGD Expert Meeting
NEW CHALLENGES AND
IN A SHIFTING WORLD
OECD Development Centre
• Patterns of Global Migration Stocks
• Source and Destination 2013 Snapshot
• Starting the Discussion on Shifting Wealth
• Other Issues on which we need Guidance
• Explore some key trends that are likely to
significantly impact migration flows
• Try to identify some of the key
interdependencies between different trends,
migration flows, and policies
• Identify critical issues that policy makers in
developed and developing countries, as well
as key international organisations, need to
consider regarding the future of migration
Share of GDP in PPP (current international $)
Source: OECD, Perspectives on Global Development 2014 (updated figure)
Source: United Nations Population Division (2013),
International Migration Report, United Nations
Patterns of Global Migration Stocks
Patterns of migration stocks 2013 (in
Source: UN DESA, International Migration Report 2013
Source and Destination Snapshot
Ten Countries with Largest Stocks of
1990-2013 (in millions)
Source: UN DESA, International Migration Report 2013
The ten largest bilateral migration
corridors: 1990-2013 (thousands)
Trends and Impacts on Migration and
• How will increasing economic weight of
developing countries affect migration flows?
• Will countries in the North have difficulty in
getting the migrants they need?
• Will shifting wealth stimulate the return of
migrants to the South, fostering innovations
and entrepreneurship in the origin countries?
• How will shifting wealth affect the
competition for talent?
• How will the interdependence between the
development of the human capital and rising
income, affect fertility and mortality in N and S,
and the global demographic imbalance?
• How will the demographic imbalance affect the
potential demand and supply of global migration
• Which countries are likely to shift from net
emigration to net immigration countries?
• How is the demographic imbalance likely to affect
migration policies of sending and receiving
• How is automation likely to affect the demand for labour and
the global distribution of labour demand ; and how is that
likely to affect international migration flows?
• How will medical progress affect fertility and life expectancy
and the demand for elder care workers?
• How will the transportation improvement affect the migrant
corridors and their composition?
• How will communication technology affect the ties between
origin and destination countries (in terms of remittances,
psychological costs, transfers of norms, return and so on)?
• Will technological advances likely to affect the duration of the
stay, will migration become more temporary?
• What other major innovations may affect migration flows and
• How are the policies toward migration of countries in
the North and South likely to change?
• What is the trade-off between more restrictive policies
and irregular migration?
• What key non-migration policies are likely to affect the
future of migration flows?
• What influences how those policies change?
• What are the costs and benefits of changing migration
– destination countries
– origin countries
• Which regions are likely to face the greatest
threats from climate change and what are
• How are they likely to affect domestic and
international migration flows?
• Are the resulting international migration
flows likely to be temporary or permanent?
• Will climate change lead to a densification/
urbanisation of some regions threating the
• How will political instability and conflict affect the migration
flows between countries?
• Are they likely to become larger over time?
• How will political instability and conflict affect labour
• Is the number of countries offering resettlement likely to
increase in the future?
• Will a higher proportion of refugees be resettled than is
currently the case?
• In order to predict future refugee flows, do we need to try to
predict what types of conflicts will be more or less likely in the
future (interstate, intrastate, internationalised, regime
collapse vs regime transitions…)? Is this feasible?
Political Instability and Conflict
• We will have a scenario exercise tomorrow
• Want you to be thinking of which trends are most
likely to affect migration flows in the future
• Note that trends may reinforce or offset each other
in terms of their impact on different types of
migration flows and that there is high uncertainty
• Think of what combination of trends we should
use for our three scenario exercise
• You have been given a small workbook to write
notes on as you go through the discussion of the
• What are the likely trends in relative growth of main countries in the
North and the South and what will they imply about wage
differentials for main migration corridors?
• What alternative trends in global growth scenarios should we
– large slowdown in growth of developing countries?
– major disruption in global growth
• Because of major disruption in China?
• Because of another major international financial crisis?
• How important are wage differentials as opposed to other factors
(such as quality of life, family and country connection, etc. )that
• What are the implications for
– competition for talent,
– knowledge transfer
– diaspora networks
– return migrants?
• What are the implication for development?
To Start the Discussion on Shifting Wealth
• Data quality and availability
• Methodology for doing projections and
analysis of impact of trends on migration
flows, policies and development impact
• Major gaps in that we have in terms of key
trends, migration corridors, migration
policy issues, etc.
• On what issues do you think this type of
report may have the greatest value added?
More General Issues on which we need
Carl J. Dahlman