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NEW CHALLENGES AND
OPPORTUNITIES FOR
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
IN A SHIFTING WORLD
Carl Dahlman
OECD Development Centre
• Objectives
• Patterns of Global Migration Stocks
• Source and Destination 2013 Snapshot
• Trends
• Scenarios
• Starting ...
• Explore some key trends that are likely to
significantly impact migration flows
• Try to identify some of the key
interd...
Shifting Wealth
Share of GDP in PPP (current international $)
Source: OECD, Perspectives on Global Development 2014 (updat...
Source: United Nations Population Division (2013),
International Migration Report, United Nations
Publication
Patterns of ...
South South
NorthNorth
81.8 13.7
82.3
53.8
Patterns of migration stocks 2013 (in
millions)
Source: UN DESA, International ...
Ten Countries with Largest Stocks of
Migrants
1990-2013 (in millions)
Source: UN DESA, International Migration Report 2013
South-South
The ten largest bilateral migration
corridors: 1990-2013 (thousands)
South-North
Shifting
Wealth
Demographics
Technology
Public
Policies
Environment
Conflict
Trends and Impacts on Migration and
Developme...
• How will increasing economic weight of
developing countries affect migration flows?
• Will countries in the North have d...
• How will the interdependence between the
development of the human capital and rising
income, affect fertility and mortal...
• How is automation likely to affect the demand for labour and
the global distribution of labour demand ; and how is that
...
• How are the policies toward migration of countries in
the North and South likely to change?
• What is the trade-off betw...
• Which regions are likely to face the greatest
threats from climate change and what are
those threats?
• How are they lik...
• How will political instability and conflict affect the migration
flows between countries?
• Are they likely to become la...
• We will have a scenario exercise tomorrow
afternoon.
• Want you to be thinking of which trends are most
likely to affect...
• What are the likely trends in relative growth of main countries in the
North and the South and what will they imply abou...
• Data quality and availability
• Methodology for doing projections and
analysis of impact of trends on migration
flows, p...
THANK YOU!
Carl J. Dahlman
Carl.dahlman@oecd.org
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Carl Dahlman's presentation - OECD - PGD Expert Meeting

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Carl Dahlman's presentation - OECD - PGD Expert Meeting

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Carl Dahlman's presentation - OECD - PGD Expert Meeting

  1. 1. NEW CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION IN A SHIFTING WORLD Carl Dahlman OECD Development Centre
  2. 2. • Objectives • Patterns of Global Migration Stocks • Source and Destination 2013 Snapshot • Trends • Scenarios • Starting the Discussion on Shifting Wealth • Other Issues on which we need Guidance Structure
  3. 3. • Explore some key trends that are likely to significantly impact migration flows • Try to identify some of the key interdependencies between different trends, migration flows, and policies • Identify critical issues that policy makers in developed and developing countries, as well as key international organisations, need to consider regarding the future of migration and development Objectives
  4. 4. Shifting Wealth Share of GDP in PPP (current international $) Source: OECD, Perspectives on Global Development 2014 (updated figure)
  5. 5. Source: United Nations Population Division (2013), International Migration Report, United Nations Publication Patterns of Global Migration Stocks
  6. 6. South South NorthNorth 81.8 13.7 82.3 53.8 Patterns of migration stocks 2013 (in millions) Source: UN DESA, International Migration Report 2013 Source and Destination Snapshot
  7. 7. Ten Countries with Largest Stocks of Migrants 1990-2013 (in millions) Source: UN DESA, International Migration Report 2013
  8. 8. South-South The ten largest bilateral migration corridors: 1990-2013 (thousands) South-North
  9. 9. Shifting Wealth Demographics Technology Public Policies Environment Conflict Trends and Impacts on Migration and Development S S NN
  10. 10. • How will increasing economic weight of developing countries affect migration flows? • Will countries in the North have difficulty in getting the migrants they need? • Will shifting wealth stimulate the return of migrants to the South, fostering innovations and entrepreneurship in the origin countries? • How will shifting wealth affect the competition for talent? Shifting Wealth
  11. 11. • How will the interdependence between the development of the human capital and rising income, affect fertility and mortality in N and S, and the global demographic imbalance? • How will the demographic imbalance affect the potential demand and supply of global migration for countries? • Which countries are likely to shift from net emigration to net immigration countries? • How is the demographic imbalance likely to affect migration policies of sending and receiving countries? Demographics
  12. 12. • How is automation likely to affect the demand for labour and the global distribution of labour demand ; and how is that likely to affect international migration flows? • How will medical progress affect fertility and life expectancy and the demand for elder care workers? • How will the transportation improvement affect the migrant corridors and their composition? • How will communication technology affect the ties between origin and destination countries (in terms of remittances, psychological costs, transfers of norms, return and so on)? • Will technological advances likely to affect the duration of the stay, will migration become more temporary? • What other major innovations may affect migration flows and migration policies? Technology
  13. 13. • How are the policies toward migration of countries in the North and South likely to change? • What is the trade-off between more restrictive policies and irregular migration? • What key non-migration policies are likely to affect the future of migration flows? • What influences how those policies change? • What are the costs and benefits of changing migration policies to: – migrants – destination countries – origin countries Public Policies
  14. 14. • Which regions are likely to face the greatest threats from climate change and what are those threats? • How are they likely to affect domestic and international migration flows? • Are the resulting international migration flows likely to be temporary or permanent? • Will climate change lead to a densification/ urbanisation of some regions threating the social cohesion? Environment
  15. 15. • How will political instability and conflict affect the migration flows between countries? • Are they likely to become larger over time? • How will political instability and conflict affect labour mobility policies? • Is the number of countries offering resettlement likely to increase in the future? • Will a higher proportion of refugees be resettled than is currently the case? • In order to predict future refugee flows, do we need to try to predict what types of conflicts will be more or less likely in the future (interstate, intrastate, internationalised, regime collapse vs regime transitions…)? Is this feasible? Political Instability and Conflict
  16. 16. • We will have a scenario exercise tomorrow afternoon. • Want you to be thinking of which trends are most likely to affect migration flows in the future • Note that trends may reinforce or offset each other in terms of their impact on different types of migration flows and that there is high uncertainty • Think of what combination of trends we should use for our three scenario exercise • You have been given a small workbook to write notes on as you go through the discussion of the trends. Scenarios
  17. 17. • What are the likely trends in relative growth of main countries in the North and the South and what will they imply about wage differentials for main migration corridors? • What alternative trends in global growth scenarios should we consider? – large slowdown in growth of developing countries? – major disruption in global growth • Because of major disruption in China? • Because of another major international financial crisis? • How important are wage differentials as opposed to other factors (such as quality of life, family and country connection, etc. )that affect migration? • What are the implications for – competition for talent, – remittances – knowledge transfer – diaspora networks – return migrants? • What are the implication for development? To Start the Discussion on Shifting Wealth
  18. 18. • Data quality and availability • Methodology for doing projections and analysis of impact of trends on migration flows, policies and development impact • Major gaps in that we have in terms of key trends, migration corridors, migration policy issues, etc. • On what issues do you think this type of report may have the greatest value added? More General Issues on which we need Guidance
  19. 19. THANK YOU! Carl J. Dahlman Carl.dahlman@oecd.org

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