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Africa's emerging partners - update 2012

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Africa's emerging partners - update 2012

  1. 1. Africa and its Emerging Partners An update of the African Economic Outlook’s special theme 2011 1
  2. 2. Intro: Africa’s shifting role in globalization The four-speed world in the 1990s 2
  3. 3. Intro: Africa’s shifting role in globalization The four-speed world in the 2000s 3
  4. 4. Who are Africa’s “Emerging Partners”? Africa’s Trade with the Emerging Partners in 2011 (US$ billion and % of Total) Turkey 1.7% China ($14.5 bn) 19.5% ($171 bn) • Countries outside OECD DAC in 2000 whose economic relations with Africa Korea, Rep. have risen fast over 2.8% the decade India ($25 bn) 3.5% Brazil 3.2% ($31 bn) • China, India, Korea, ($27.6 bn) Brazil and Turkey are leading the pack Other Eps 8.8 % ($ 77.5 bn) 4
  5. 5. China’s share has grown rapidly … Africas total trade with emerging partners Distribution in 2008 Distribution in 2011 Oth.EPs Turkey 23% Oth.EPs China 31% 35% 4% China 49% Korea, Rep. Brazil Turkey India 7% 8% 6% Brazil 14% India (*) Korea, 8% 9% Rep. 6% 5
  6. 6. … in particular through the global crisis Total trade: Africas top Emerging Partners + Benchmarks (USA, FRA,Billion USD GER, ITA)180160140 China120 United States France100 Oth.EPs80 Italy Germany60 India (*)40 Brazil Korea, Rep.20 Turkey 0 1992 1999 2006 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  7. 7. Emerging Partners’ share in African trade: poised tostabilise at around 40%? Share of Traditional (TPs) and Emerging Partners (EPs) in Africa’s total trade • Africa’s total trade Trade volume with the EPs (right axis) TPs EPs almost tripled Billion USD between90% 350 2000 and 201180% 30070%60% 250 • The share of trade50% 200 with non- traditional40% 150 partners increased30% 100 from 23% in 200020% to 40% in 201110% 50 0% 0 • China’s share 2008 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 quadrupled 7
  8. 8. Industrialization: Emerging partners confirm their roleas importers of African manufactures Africa’s exports of manufactured products by type of partnerBillion USD (1995-2010, in billion USD)10080 EU2560 USA Oth.Traditional40 Oth.Emerging China20 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 8
  9. 9. Traditional Partners remain key: trade Africas Total Trade Volume 2000-2011 (in billion USD) Billion USD 900 800 700 China 600 Oth.Emerging 500 Oth.Traditional 400 USA 300 EU25 200 100 0 2011 2007 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 9
  10. 10. Traditional Partners remain key: investment African FDI inflows 1995-2008100% Developed Share of total Countries80% Africa60% Latin America40% 79 % Asia 72.1 %20% Unspecified 0% 1995-1999 2000-2008 10
  11. 11. Scope for synergies Emerging Partners have become a major driver of Africa’s growth – although Traditional Partners are still very significant and will remain so in the years to come The patterns of engagement of Emerging and Traditional Partners tend to be complementary, to the benefit of African countries There are outstanding risks especially for the weakest African states but so far, more fear than harm 11
  12. 12. Scope for synergies … (continued) DAC Official Development Assistance Concessional Loans from China to Africa, by sectors (05-09) Public by sectors (end of 2009) Multisectoral, facilities, 8% 3.2% Agriculture Others, , 4.3% 6.5% Productive sectors, 10% Industry , 16.1% Economic Social Infrastruc sectors, 65% ture, 61%Infrastructure, 17% Energy2005-2009 and resource devlpt, 8.9% 12
  13. 13. Managing a widening policy space Who among the following partners are typically most effective at meeting the development objectives of the country?100%80%60%40%20% 0% Infrastructure Innovation Exports Health Governance 1 Emerging partners 2 Multilaterals 3 None of them 4 Not relevant 5 Traditional partners 13
  14. 14. Policy implications Enshrine engagement strategies into national development plans Search for a virtuous circle of regional integration and coordination Raise the scale of investment to attract emerging investors, including Sovereign Wealth Funds More transparency to put an end to unconstructive myths 14
  15. 15. Free online accesswww.africaneconomicoutlook.org 15

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