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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

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Key graphs and information from the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

  1. 1. Agricultural prices are expected to remain constrained 50 100 150 200 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Index 2002-04 = 100 FAO Food Price Index (real) Prices spiked due to a « perfect storm » of market shocks reinforced by policy responses Real prices to be constrained by strong supply growth, ample stocks, and weakening demand growth
  2. 2. Growth in demand for agricultural commodities slows down – except for dairy 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 2008-17 2018-27 2008-17 2018-27 2008-17 2018-27 2008-17 2018-27 2008-17 2018-27 2008-17 2018-27 Cereals Meat Fish Fresh dairy Sugar Vegetable oil % Due to per capita demand growth (food & other uses) Due to population growth Average annual growth rate in demand
  3. 3. Most additional food demand will come from Sub-Saharan Africa, India and China -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2008-17 2018-27 2008-17 2018-27 2008-17 2018-27 2008-17 2018-27 2008-17 2018-27 2008-17 2018-27 Cereals Meat Fish Fresh dairy Sugar Vegetable oil Rest of World MENA China India Sub-Saharan Africa OECD Mt/decade Growth in demand
  4. 4. Meat and fish: Convergence in consumption patterns remains limited Per capita food consumption, 2027 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 SSA India China MENA OECD World Fish Sheepmeat Poultry Pigmeat Beef and vealkg/ cap
  5. 5. Dairy: Strong growth in fresh dairy products in India will continue Per capita food consumption of milk solids, 2027 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 SSA India China MENA OECD World Butter Whole milk powder Skim milk powder Cheese Fresh dairykg/cap
  6. 6. Aquaculture is on track to overtake capture fisheries globally 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Aquaculture Total capture Capture for human consumptionMt
  7. 7. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Maize Protein meals Other coarse grains Wheat Cereal bran Others Mt 2015-17 2027 Maize and protein meals increase their share of the global feed mix
  8. 8. Biofuel growth slows down 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 bln L World ethanol production World biodiesel production
  9. 9. Feedstocks for biofuels will account for a stable share of demand 0 5 10 15 20 25 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 % Maize used for biofuels Sugarcane used for biofuels Vegetable oil used for biofuels
  10. 10. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 Sub-Saharan Africa South and East Asia Middle East and North Africa Americas Eastern Europe and Central Asia Oceania Western Europe % 2015-17 2027 Growth, 2015-17 to 2027 (right axis)USD billion Production will grow fastest in developing regions Agriculture and fisheries production (constant 2004-06 prices)
  11. 11. The share of agricultural production traded is expected to remain constant 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 % 2015-17 2027
  12. 12. Trade: Specialisation between regions is increasing over time -100 -50 0 50 100 150 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 USD bln Agricultural trade balances by region, in constant value, 1990-2027 Americas Oceania Eastern Europe and Central Asia Western Europe Sub-Saharan Africa MENA South and East Asia
  13. 13. The Middle East and North Africa will remain dependent on imports Share of imports in domestic consumption 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Wheat Rice Oilseeds Vegetable oil Sugar Beef Poultry Sheep Milk Fish % 2015-17 2027
  14. 14. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 USD/t Real maize price: Baseline and 90% interval Grey range includes 90% of simulated prices from the stochastic analysis Despite downward trend, risk of temporary price increases remains

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