Future of education - Austria

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  • And policy makers do this because in this world where all work that can be digitised, automated or outsourced can now be done anywhere in the world by those who are best prepared, the yardstick for success is no longer improvement by national standards, but the best performing education systems internationally. I will begin my presentation this evening by showing how the global talent pool has changed, in response to the forces of globalisation and technological changeThen examine what international comparisons can tell us about this. I will show you where we see the United States and try to contrast this with the best performing education systems, that give you a sense of what is possible in education, terms of the quality of educational outcomes and equity in the distribution of educational opportunities. And I will conclude with tying the results to some of the policy levers that emerge from international comparisons.
  • The pace of change is most clearly visible in higher education, and I want to bring two more dimensions into the picture here. Each dot on this chart represents one country. The horizontal axis shows you the college graduation rate, the proportion of an age group that comes out of the system with a college degree. The vertical axis shows you how much it costs to educate a graduate per year.
  • *Lets now add where the money comes from into the picture, the larger the dot, the larger the share of private spending on college education, such as tuition.The chart shows the US as the country with the highest college graduation rate, and the highest level of spending per student. The US is also among the countries with the largest share of resources generated through the private sector. That allows the US to spend roughly twice as much per student as Europe. US, FinlandThe only thing I have not highlighted so far is that this was the situation in 1995. And now watch this closely as you see how this changed between 1995 and 2005.
  • You see that in 2000, five years, later, the picture looked very different. While in 1995 the US was well ahead of any other country – you see that marked by the dotted circle, in 2000 several other countries had reached out to this frontier. Look at Australia, in pink.
  • Thatwasallveryquick, letusgothroughthisdevelopmentonceagain
  • Let us go back to the 1960s. The chart shows you the wealth of world regions and the average years of schooling in these regions, which is the most traditional measure of human capital. Have a look at Latin America, it ranked third in wealth and third in years of schooling, so in the 1960s the world seemed pretty much in order.
  • But when you look at economic growth between 1960 and 2000, you see that something went wrong. Despite the fact that Latin America did well in terms of years of schooling, only Sub-Saharan Africa did worse in terms of economic growth. So in 2000, Latin America had fallen back considerably in terms of GDP per capita.You can draw two conclusions from this: Either education is not as important for economic growth as we thought, or we have for a long time been measuring the wrong thing.
  • Now let me add one additional element, and that is a measure of the quality of education, in the form of the score of the different world regions on international tests like PISA or TIMSS. And you see now that the world looks in order again, there seems a close relationship between test scores and economic growth. You can see that even more clearly when you put this into graphical form. This is one of the charts produced by Professor Hanushek. And, as Professor Hanushek will explain, the relationship holds even when you account for other factors, it even holds when you compare growth in economies with growth in learning outcomes, which is the closest we can come to examining causality.So what this tells you is that it is not simply years of schooling or the number of graduates we produce, but indeed the quality of learning outcomes that counts.
  • The best way to find out whether what students have learned at school matters for their life is to actuallywatch what happens to them after they leave school. This is exactly what we have done that with around 30,000 students in Canada. We tested them in the year 2000 when they were 15 years old in reading, math and science, and since then we are following up with them each year on what choices they make and how successful they are in their transition from school to higher education and work.The horizontal axis shows you the PISA level which 15-year-old Canadians had scored in 2000. Level 2 is the baseline level on the PISA reading test and Level 5 the top level in reading.The red bar shows you how many times more successful someone who scored Level 2 at age 15 was at age 19 to have made a successful transition to university, as compared to someone who did not make it to the baseline PISA level 1. And to ensure that what you see here is not simply a reflection of social background, gender, immigration or school engagement, we have already statistically accounted for all of these factors. The orange bar. …How would you expect the picture to be like at age 21? We are talking about test scores here, but for a moment, lets go back to the judgements schools make on young people, for example through school marks. You can do the same thing here, you can see how well school marks at age 15 predict the subsequent success of youths. You see that there is some relationship as well, but that it is much less pronounced than when we use the direct measure of skills.
  • That’s all just the beginning. The first, and easy phase of globalisation, the time that the industrialised world only had to compete against the China’s and India’s that offered a low skilled work force at a fraction at our labour costs is long gone. What we now see is, that we no longer compete with low skills at low costs, but that countries like China or India are starting to deliver high skills at low costs at an ever increasing pace. And that’s beginning to challenge the middle and high skills sectors.
  • This is where China, the European Union, India and the US stood in terms of the number of high school graduates in 2003. This is how the picture is likely to look in 2010, and this is what we project for 2015.
  • Clearly, our countries will not compete with this by putting more graduates through schools and universities, it is the nature of skills quality of educational output that really counts. Creativity and innovation are what gives us the competitive edge. Its all about putting new triangles up.If in a global economy, all work that can be digitised, automatised or outsourced will be digitised, automatised or outsourced, then we need to ask ourselves what key competencies education systems need to provide for young people to succeed
  • Clearly, our countries will not compete with this by putting more graduates through schools and universities, it is the nature of skills, it is the quality of educational output that really counts.
  • Analogy with militaryGet children into school when they have reached a certain agePut them into fixed classrooms, managed by a single instructorRun schools with curricula, timetables, instruction hours, working horus …
  • Levy and Murnane show how the composition of the US work force has changed. What they show is that, between 1970 and 2000, work involving routine manual input, the jobs of the typical factory worker, was down significantly. Non-routine manual work, things we do with our hands, but in ways that are not so easily put into formal algorithms, was down too, albeit with much less change over recent years – and that is easy to understand because you cannot easily computerise the bus driver or outsource your hairdresser. All that is not surprising, but here is where the interesting story begins: Among the skill categories represented here, routine cognitive input, that is cognitive work that you can easily put into the form of algorithms and scripts saw the sharpest decline in demand over the last couple of decades, with a decline by almost 8% in the share of jobs. So those middle class white collar jobs that involve the application of routine knowledge, are most at threat today. And that is where schools still put a lot of their focus and what we value in multiple choice accountability systems.The point here is, that the skills that are easiest to teach and test are also the skills that are easiest to digitise, automatise and offshore. If that is all what we do in school, we are putting our youngsters right up for competition with computers, because those are the things computers can do better than humans, and our kids are going to loose out before they even started. Where are the winners in this process? These are those who engage in expert thinking – the new literacy of the 21st century, up 8% - and complex communication, up almost 14%.
  • A strong foundation of subject matter knowledge will always remain at the heart of success, but it is no longer enough. As the previous chart has shown, other skill dimensions are rising in their importance.In our schools, students learn individually and at the end of the school year, we certify their individual achievement. But the more complex the globalised world becomes, the more individuals and companies need various forms of co-ordination and management, the great collaborators and orchestrators will be successful, people who can relate well to others, manage and resolve conflicts, to respect and appreciate different values, beliefs, cultures. Inter-personal competencies will be of growing importance, but are often not sufficiently recognised by school curricula and even less so in assessments.The conventional approach in school is often to break problems down into manageable bits and pieces and then teach students how to solve these. However, today we create value by synthesising disparate bits, today, for example, the computer scientist is at a premium who works in the pharmazeutical company to analyse genetic structures and turns this knowledge into new medicines. If such competencies matter, we need to reflect them in modern assessments. Similarly, if we log on to the world wide web today, we can find everything we are looking for, and teaching students to access and process information is easy. But the more content we can search and access, the more important will those people become, who can meaningfully sort and filter information and explain specialised content in their own sphere to people working in other spheres. Again, if those competencies matter, we need to reflect them in modern assessments.
  • Our modern world is also no longer divided into the categories of specialists and generalists. Specialists generally have deep skills and narrow scope, giving them expertise that is recognised by peers but they face difficulties working outside their domain. Generalists have broad scope but shallow skills and that is important but not enough. What counts most today are versatilists who are capable to apply depth of skill to a progressively widening scope of situations and experiences, gaining new competencies, building relationships, and assuming new roles. Modern schools therefore need to help young individuals to constantly adapt and grow, individuals who cannot only reproduce subject matter knowledge but have the capacity and motivation to expand their horizons and transfer and apply knowledge in novel settings. As peoples future becomes more and more uncertain, individuals need to have the capacity to find and constantly adjust their right place in an increasingly complex world, people who can manage their lives in meaningful and responsible way, and to recognise rights and limitations, those of themselves and others. We can extend the list further but the point is that, whatever competencies are considered relevant for success in modern societies, we need to base modern assessments of learning outcomes at school on those key competencies, rather than solely assessing the efficiency with which students have learned what they have been taught.
  • At the OECD, we are measuring skills, with a focus on those non-routing cognitive skills, regularly through our PISA programme, now the most comprehensive international assessment of the quality of education. Every three years, we test roughly half a million of children in OECD countries in key competencies, and that’s not simply about checking whether students have learned what they were recently taught, but we examine to what extent students can extrapolate from what they have learned and apply their knowledge and skills in novel settings. Here you see the countries which we can compare, and how the set of countries being compared has expanded.
  • International comparisons demonstrate what can be done with a combination of the right strategy and courageous, sustained leadership. Let us look at what’s behind the success of some of these countries.
  • But the balance between national prescription and schools leading reform is not an all-or-nothing. In fact, most school systems have started out with highly prescriptive education systems. But gradually the have moved towards building capacity and enabling schools to assume greater responsibility.
  • Future of education - Austria

    1. 1. Herausforderungen an Bildungssysteme in einer neuen globalen Relalität<br />Wien, 15. April 2010<br />Prof. Andreas SchleicherAdvisory of the OECD Secretary-General on Education PolicyOECD Directorate for Education<br />
    2. 2. NeueHerausforderungen<br />Gestern<br />Heute<br />Stabil<br />Märkte<br />Dynamisch<br />National<br />Wettbewerb<br />Global<br />Hierarchisch<br />Vernetzt<br />Organisationsformen<br />Flexible Produktion –embedded services<br />Massenproduktion<br />Produktion<br />Mechanisierung<br />Wachstumsimpulse<br />Digitalisierung, Miniaturisierung<br />„Economies of scale“<br />Wettbewerbsvorteil<br />Innovation, Zeitnähe<br />Einzelbetrieb<br />Firmenmodell<br />„Co-petition” – Allianzen<br />Vollbeschäftigung<br />Politische Ziele<br />„Employability”<br />Klare Identität im berufsspezifischen Kontext<br />Berufsprofile<br />Konvergenz und Transformation<br />Berufsspezifisch<br />Kompetenzen<br />Multi-dimensional<br />Lebensbegleitendes Lernen<br />Formale Qualifikation<br />Bildung<br />
    3. 3. „The world is flat“ (Thomas Friedman)<br />
    4. 4. There is nowhere to hide<br />Why the yardstick for success is no longer improvement by national educational standards<br />
    5. 5. BasisqualifikationenApproximatedbypercentage of personswithhighschoolorequivalentqualficationsin the agegroups 55-64, 45-55, 45-44 und 25-34 years<br />%<br />1<br />13<br />11<br />1<br />27<br />10<br />1. Excluding ISCED 3C short programmes 2. Year of reference 2004<br />3. Including some ISCED 3C short programmes 3. Year of reference 2003.<br />
    6. 6. Spitzenqualifikationen<br />Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)<br />Cost per student<br />Graduate supply<br />Tertiary-type A graduation rate <br />
    7. 7. Spitzenqualifikationen<br />Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)<br />United States<br />Cost per student<br />Austria<br />Finland<br />Graduate supply<br />Tertiary-type A graduation rate <br />
    8. 8. Spitzenqualifikationen<br />Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)<br />Australia<br />Finland<br />United Kingdom<br />Poland <br />Tertiary-type A graduation rate <br />
    9. 9. Spitzenqualifikationen<br />Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)<br />Tertiary-type A graduation rate <br />
    10. 10. Spitzenqualifikationen<br />Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)<br />Tertiary-type A graduation rate <br />
    11. 11. Spitzenqualifikationen<br />Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)<br />Tertiary-type A graduation rate <br />
    12. 12. Spitzenqualifikationen<br />Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)<br />Tertiary-type A graduation rate <br />
    13. 13. Spitzenqualifikationen<br />Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)<br />Tertiary-type A graduation rate <br />
    14. 14. Spitzenqualifikationen<br />Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)<br />United States<br />Australia<br />Austria<br />Finland<br />Tertiary-type A graduation rate <br />
    15. 15. Components of the private net present value for a male with higher education<br />27K$<br />56K$<br />170K$<br />105K$<br />35K$<br />26K$<br />367K$<br />Net present value in USD equivalent<br />
    16. 16. Latin America then…<br />Hanushek 2009<br />
    17. 17. Latin America then and now…<br />Hanushek 2009<br />
    18. 18. Latin America then and now…<br />Why quality is the key<br />Hanushek 2009<br />
    19. 19. Increased likelihood of tertiary particip. at age 19/21 associated with PISA reading proficiency at age 15 (Canada)after accounting for school engagement, gender, mother tongue, place of residence, parental, education and family income (reference group PISA Level 1)<br />Increased chance of successful tertiary participation<br />School marks at age 15<br />PISA performance at age 15<br />
    20. 20. Better skills or lower pay<br />The world is flat (Thomas Friedman)<br />
    21. 21. Moving targetsFuture supply of college graduates<br />There are more smart kids in China than there are kids in Europe<br />
    22. 22. The world is flat (Thomas Friedman)<br />
    23. 23. Schooling in the medieval age:<br />The school of the church<br />
    24. 24. Schooling in the industrial age:<br />Educating for discipline<br />
    25. 25. Schooling in the industrial age:<br />Educating for discipline<br />The challenges today:<br />Motivated and self-reliant citizens<br />Risk-taking entrepreneurs, converging and continuously emerging professions tied to globalising contexts and technological advance<br />
    26. 26. Veränderungen in der NachfragenachKompetenzenEconomy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US)<br />Mean task input as percentiles of the 1960 task distribution<br />The dilemma of schools:<br />The skills that are easiest to teach and test are also the ones that are easiest to digitise, automate and outsource<br /> (Levy and Murnane)<br />
    27. 27. Skills for the 21st century<br />The great collaborators and orchestrators<br />The more complex the globalised world becomes, the more individuals and companies need various forms of co-ordination and management <br />The great synthesisers<br />Conventionally, our approach to problems was breaking them down into manageable bits and pieces, today we create value by synthesising disparate bits together<br />The great explainers<br />The more content we can search and access, the more important the filters and explainers become<br />
    28. 28. Skills for the 21st century<br />The great versatilists<br />Specialists generally have deep skills and narrow scope, giving them expertise that is recognised by peers but not valued outside their domain<br />Generalists have broad scope but shallow skills<br />Versatilists apply depth of skill to a progressively widening scope of situations and experiences, gaining new competencies, building relationships, and assuming new roles. <br />They are capable not only of constantly adapting but also of constantly learning and growing<br />The great personalisers<br />A revival of interpersonal skills, skills that have atrhophied to some degree because of the industrial age and the Internet<br />The great localisers<br />Localising the global<br />
    29. 29. It is estimated that a week’s worth of the New York Times contains more information than a person was likely to come across in a lifetime in the 18th century<br />There are over 200 million registered users on MySpace. If MySpace was a country, it would be the 5th largest country in the world<br />There are 31 billion searches on Google every month<br />To whom were these questions addressed B.G. (before Google)?<br />The first commercial text messages was sent in December 1992 <br />Today the number of text messages sent and received everyday exceeds the total population of the planet<br />During the course of this presentation over a million songs will be downloaded illegally<br />
    30. 30. Bildung 2.0<br />Bildungseinrichtungen daran messen, wie sie…<br />Schülern helfen, sich in einer sich immer schneller verändernden Welt zurechtzufinden <br />Schüler auf Berufe vorbereiten, die wir noch nicht kennen <br />Schülern helfen Technologien zu nutzen, die erst morgen erfunden werden<br />Schüler darauf vorbereiten strategische Herausforderungen zu bewältigen von denen wir heute noch nicht wissen dass es sie gibt<br />Lernen nicht Ort sondern Aktivität<br />Lehrer als Experten, die Schüler dabei unterstützten, durch eigenständiges Denken und Handeln selbstständig und kooperativ zu lernen<br />Lernen als aktiver, sozialer Prozess<br />Kreativität und Erfindungsreichtum anstelle von Konformität<br />Lernerzentrierung anstelle von Lehrplanzentrierung <br />Erarbeitetes Wissen anstelle von vermitteltem Wissen<br />Soziale Intelligenz, emotionale Sicherheit und Gründergeist .<br />
    31. 31. OECD’s PISA assessment of the knowledge and skills of 15-year-olds<br />Coverage of world economy<br />83%<br />77%<br />81%<br />85%<br />86%<br />87%<br />
    32. 32. High science performance<br />Average performanceof 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and apply<br />Poland<br />… 18 countries perform below this line<br />Low science performance<br />
    33. 33. High science performance<br />Average performanceof 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and apply<br />High average performance<br />Large socio-economic disparities<br />High average performance<br />High social equity<br />Strong socio-economic impact on student performance<br />Socially equitable distribution of learning opportunities<br />Low average performance<br />Large socio-economic disparities<br />Low average performance<br />High social equity<br />Low science performance<br />
    34. 34. High science performance<br />Durchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik<br />High average performance<br />Large socio-economic disparities<br />High average performance<br />High social equity<br />Strong socio-economic impact on student performance<br />Socially equitable distribution of learning opportunities<br />Low average performance<br />Large socio-economic disparities<br />Low average performance<br />High social equity<br />Low science performance<br />
    35. 35. Handlungsfelder<br />Some policy levers that emerge from international comparisons<br />
    36. 36. Hohe Erwartungenund anspruchsvolle Standards<br />Zugang zu guter Praxis und berufliche Weiterentwicklung als integraler Bestandteil des Berufsfeldes<br />
    37. 37. Standards und Unterstützung<br />Gute Unterstützung der Einrichtungen<br />Schwache Leistungen<br />Verbesserungen bleiben Einzelfall<br />Starke Leistungen<br />Systemische Verbesserungen<br />Unklare Anforderungen<br />AnspruchsvolleStandards<br />Schwache Leistungen<br />Stagnation<br />Konflikt<br />Demoralisierung<br />Geringe Unterstützung<br />
    38. 38. Hohe Erwartungenund anspruchsvolleStandards<br />Freiräume und Handlungsfähigkeit der Bildungs-einrichtungen<br />Evaluation, motivierende Leistungsrückmeldungen und Intervention invers zum Erfolg<br />Zugang zu guter Praxis und berufliche Weiterentwicklung als integraler Bestandteil des Berufsfeldes<br />
    39. 39. School autonomy, standards-based examinations and science performanceSchool autonomy in selecting teachers for hire<br />PISA score in science <br />
    40. 40. Local responsibility and national prescription<br />Towards system-wide sustainable reform<br />National prescription<br />Schools today<br />The industrial model, detailed prescription of what schools do<br />Schools tomorrow?<br />Building capacity<br />Finland today<br />Every school an effective school<br />Schools leading reform<br />
    41. 41. Hohe Erwartungenund anspruchsvolleStandards<br />Freiräume und Handlungsfähigkeit der Schulen<br />Individualisierung von Lernen<br />Evaluation, motivierende Leistungsrückmeldungen und Intervention invers zum Erfolg<br />Offene und vernetzte Bildungswege statt früher Selektion<br />Qualifikationsrahmen<br />Zugang zu guter Praxis und berufliche Weiterentwicklung als integraler Bestandteil des Berufsfeldes<br />
    42. 42. High science performance<br />Durchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik<br />High average performance<br />Large socio-economic disparities<br />High average performance<br />High social equity<br />Strong socio-economic impact on student performance<br />Socially equitable distribution of learning opportunities<br />Early selection and institutional differentiation<br /> High degree of stratification<br /> Low degree of stratification<br />Low average performance<br />Large socio-economic disparities<br />Low average performance<br />High social equity<br />Low science performance<br />
    43. 43. Hohe Erwartungenund anspruchsvolle Standards<br />Freiräume und Handlungsfähigkeit der Schulen<br />Individulalisierung von Lernen<br />Evaluation und Intervention invers zum Erfolg<br />Offene und integrierte Bildungswege<br />Zugang zu guter Praxis und berufliche Weiterentwicklung als integraler Bestandteil des Berufsfeldes<br />
    44. 44. Pooled international dataset, effects of selected school/system factors on science performance after accounting for all other factors in the model<br />School principal’s positive evaluation of quality of educational materials(gross only)<br />Schools with more competing schools(gross only)<br />Schools with greater autonomy (resources)(gross and net)<br />School activities to promote science learning(gross and net)<br />One additional hour of self-study or homework (gross and net)<br />One additional hour of science learning at school (gross and net)<br />School results posted publicly (gross and net)<br />Academically selective schools (gross and net) but no system-wide effect<br />Schools practicing ability grouping (gross and net)<br />One additional hour of out-of-school lessons (gross and net)<br />20<br />Each additional 10% of public funding(gross only)<br />School principal’s perception that lack of qualified teachers hinders instruction(gross only)<br />Effect after accounting for the socio-economic background of students, schools and countries<br />Measured effect<br />OECD (2007), PISA 2006 – Science Competencies from Tomorrow’s World, Table 6.1a <br />
    45. 45. Paradigm shifts<br />
    46. 46. www.oecd.org; www.pisa.oecd.org<br />All national and international publications<br />The complete micro-level database<br />email: pisa@oecd.org<br />Andreas.Schleicher@OECD.org<br />… and remember:<br /> Without data, you are just another person with an opinion<br />Thank you !<br />

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