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Labour demand trends - Alexandra Tsvetkova

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Labour demand trends - Alexandra Tsvetkova

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Presentation by Alexandra Tsvetkova, Lead, Spatial Productivity Lab at the OECD Trento Centre for Local Development at the 19th OECD Spatial Productivity Lab meeting held on 14 December 2022 in Trento, Italy.

More info https://oe.cd/spl

Presentation by Alexandra Tsvetkova, Lead, Spatial Productivity Lab at the OECD Trento Centre for Local Development at the 19th OECD Spatial Productivity Lab meeting held on 14 December 2022 in Trento, Italy.

More info https://oe.cd/spl

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Labour demand trends - Alexandra Tsvetkova

  1. 1. @OECD_local www.linkedin.com/company/oecd-local www.oecd.org/cfe LABOUR DEMAND TRENDS Alexandra Tsvetkova Spatial Productivity Lab Trento Centre for Local Development OECD Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities 19th SPL-IRVAPP meeting
  2. 2. © OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local | Trento Centre for Local Development Lightcast data 2 Web-scrapped data from online job postings o Big o Detailed o Timely o (Some) unique information Information on: o Location (NUTS3) o Industry o Occupation o List of skills o Type of contract o Salary, education, experience, company name, etc. Disadvantages: o Missing data o Representativeness differs across industries and possibly regions o Changes in data quality over time Unit of observation: Job posting Frequency: Daily Time covered (EU27): July 2018 to June 2022
  3. 3. © OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local | Trento Centre for Local Development General trends
  4. 4. © OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local | Trento Centre for Local Development Total number of job postings, index Only observations with regional ID Fact 1 Labour demand fully recovered after COVID-19 Fact 2 Trends in Trentino mostly follow the national pattern; more volatility in Bolzano (could be due to language) 0 50 100 150 200 250 Lombardy Bolzano Trento Veneto FVG ER Italy
  5. 5. © OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local | Trento Centre for Local Development Labour demand by occupation Fact 2 Same general patterns in Bolzano; slightly stronger demand for clerical support workers Fact 1 In Trentino, strongest recovery in services & sales and elementary occupations; weakest recovery in crafts & related trades and plant & machine operators Labour demand by occupation, index 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Trento 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Bolzano Managers Professionals Technicians and associate professionals Clerical support workers Service and sales workers Craft and related trades workers Plant and machine operators, and assemblers Elementary occupations
  6. 6. © OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local | Trento Centre for Local Development Labour demand by sector, index Manufacturing Bolzano generally above national level; Trento at or below national level Services Large dip at the end of 2021; Trento generally above national level; Bolzano at or below except for 2022 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250 Manufacturing Lombardy Bolzano Trento Veneto FVG ER Italy 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250 Services Lombardy Bolzano Trento Veneto FVG ER Italy
  7. 7. © OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local | Trento Centre for Local Development High-tech/knowledge-intensive
  8. 8. © OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local | Trento Centre for Local Development Labour demand in HT manufacturing, share Fact 2 Underperformance is larger in medium High-Tech manufacturing, particularly in Bolzano Fact 1 Both TN and BZ tend to underperform already quite low national labour demand in High-Tech manufacturing 0 1 2 3 4 5 High-Tech Lombardia Bolzano Trento Veneto FVG ER Italy 0 1 2 3 4 5 Medium High-Tech Lombardia Bolzano Trento Veneto FVG ER Italy
  9. 9. © OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local | Trento Centre for Local Development Labour demand in KIS, share Fact 2 Bolzano is generally underperforming the national labour demand in KIS except for a short-lived increase after the initial pandemic restrictions were lifted Fact 1 Trento was outperforming national labour demand in KIS before COVID-19; similar or lower labour demand after the pandemic 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Lombardia Bolzano Trento Veneto FVG ER Italy
  10. 10. © OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local | Trento Centre for Local Development ICT trends and Internet speeds
  11. 11. © OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local | Trento Centre for Local Development ICT 11 The pandemic shifted many economic and social activities online  Enhanced reliance on ICT ICT occupations 133 Information and communications technology service managers 251 Software and applications developers and analysts 252 Database and network professionals 351 Information and communications technology operations and user support technicians General ICT skills Examples: “Microsoft” “Office software” “Internet” “Data” “Online communications tools” … Advanced ICT skills Examples: “SQL”, “Java”, “Pyton”, “C+” “information systems” “software engineering” “systems development” “statistical analysis” “data analysis” …
  12. 12. © OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local | Trento Centre for Local Development Labour demand in ICT occupations, share Fact 2 The shares in both Trento and Bolzano below the national average Fact 1 The share of ICT occupations in labour demand tends to decrease starting in 2021 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Lombardy Bolzano Trento Veneto FVG ER Italy
  13. 13. © OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local | Trento Centre for Local Development Labour demand for ICT skills (index) Fact 2 After the pandemic, demand for both general and advanced ICT skills mostly at or below national level in Trento; no pattern in Bolzano Fact 1 Differing dynamics at the beginning of the pandemic; stronger growth in demand for general ICT skills afterwards 30 80 130 180 230 General Lombardy Bolzano Trento Veneto FVG ER Italy 30 80 130 180 230 Advanced Lombardy Bolzano Trento Veneto FVG ER Italy
  14. 14. © OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local | Trento Centre for Local Development Labour demand for ICT skills (share) Fact 2 Bolzano at or above national level in demand for general ICT skills, Trento is lagging; both provinces are lagging in demand for advanced ICT skills Fact 1 Same dynamics during the onset of the pandemic; slow recovery in the share of demand for general ICT skills, contraction and slow growth for advanced 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Advanced Lombardy Bolzano Trento Veneto FVG ER Italy 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 General Lombardy Bolzano Trento Veneto FVG ER Italy
  15. 15. © OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local | Trento Centre for Local Development Internet speed (deviation from national) Fact 2 Positive dynamics in both Trento and Bolzano with Internet speeds going above national average in early 2020 and staying there Fact 1 Lowest fixed Internet speeds in both Trento and Bolzano; slight improvement over time in Trento, slight deterioration over time in Bolzano -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Fixed Lombardy Bolzano Trento Veneto FVG ER -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Mobile Lombardy Bolzano Trento Veneto FVG ER Source: OOKLA
  16. 16. © OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local | Trento Centre for Local Development Robotics and AI
  17. 17. © OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local | Trento Centre for Local Development Demand for Robotics and AI skills, share Fact 2 Trento tended to outperform Bolzano and Italy but more recently the demand lags behind the national one Fact 1 Overall downward trend in the share of labour demand for AI and Robotics skills 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 Lombardy Bolzano Trento Veneto FVG ER Italy
  18. 18. © OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local | Trento Centre for Local Development Most required skills
  19. 19. © OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local | Trento Centre for Local Development Top 10 skills
  20. 20. © OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local | Trento Centre for Local Development Main take-aways Labour demand as reflected in online job postings appears to fully recover after COVID-19 Services & sales and elementary occupations lead the recovery Both provinces underperform the nation in labour demand for workers in high-tech and medium-high- tech manufacturing and more recently in knowledge-intensive services Before the pandemic, the provinces had somewhat stronger labour demand for ICT, AI and robotics skills but more recently there is decline There is scope for improving fixed-connection Internet speeds in both Trento and Bolzano Transversal and general ICT are the leading skills required in Italy and in both provinces
  21. 21.  Twitter: @OECD_local LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/oecd-local Website: www.oecd.org/cfe | www.trento.oecd.org Thank you! Alexandra.Tsvetkova@oecd.org OECD Trento Centre for Local Development
  22. 22. © OECD | Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities | @OECD_Local | Trento Centre for Local Development Sector definitions 22 High-tech 21 Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations 26 Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products Medium High-tech 20 Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products 27 Manufacture of electrical equipment 28 Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. 29 Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi- trailers 30 Manufacture of other transport equipment KIS 50 Water transport 51 Air transport 58 Publishing activities 59 Motion picture, video and television programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities 60 Programming and broadcasting activities 61 Telecommunications 62 Computer programming, consultancy and related activities 63 Information service activities 64 Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding 65 Insurance, reinsurance and pension finding, except compulsory social security 66 Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities 69 Legal and accounting activities 70 Activities of head offices, management consultancy 71 Architectural and engineering activities, technical testing 72 Scientific research and development …. ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/metadata/Annexes/htec_esms_an3.pdf

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