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Potential spatial impacts of the war in
Ukraine: A case study from Italy
14-12-2022
19th SPL meeting, Trento
Mattia Corbetta, Policy Analyst
OECD Trento Centre for Local Development
mattia.corbetta@oecd.org

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Two years later, a new global crisis broke out
The OECD stood ready to support
providing makers in providing sensible
responses with ad hoc tools:
For the OECD Trento Centre for Local Development, this
meant running pilots in Italian regions, with a focus on our host
region of Trentino-South Tyrol and having spatial implications
in mind:

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• Employment shares in gas-intensive
industries are higher in northern regions
• The shares vary between 6.03% and
10.6% in the five provinces where this
value is the highest
• Enterprises in crop farming are more
prevalent on the islands and in the south
(15% against 10% at national level)
• 8 of the 10 provinces with the highest
rate of firms in land farming are located
in those macro-areas
• Livestock farming firms follow a unique
territorial distribution, prevailing in non-
coastal, typically mountainous provinces
• There are six times fewer livestock
farming firms than crop farming ones
• Jobs and enterprises in wheat-based
food production are concentrated in the
south and islands
• Employment shares vary from 2% to 3%
in the 5 Italian provinces where the value
is highest (all in the islands)
• Russian tourists represented a limited
share (i.e. 1.33%) of all foreigners
visiting Italy in 2019
• The shares ranged from 0.5% or less in
the bottom 5 regions to 3 times as much
or more in the top 5 regions
• Russia accounted for only 1.64% of all
Italian exports in 2019
• It accounted for 3% of all exports from
Marche, against ≤ 0.50% in the islands
• Presence of highly specialised region
(e.g. pharmaceutical in Lazio)
Scope and overview of analysis
4 commodity-dependent sectors
2 sectors dependent on international mobility

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Gas-intensive industries prevail in the north
• The five sectors with the highest natural gas consumption in Italy include refinement of petroleum products, production of basic
metals, paper, chemicals and non-metallic minerals;
• Employment shares in gas-intensive sectors are the highest in the north; they vary between 6.03% and 10.6% in the five provinces
where this value is the highest (in ascending order: Modena, Terni, Lucca, Cremona and Taranto);
• The intensity of natural gas consumption is higher in most sectors in Italy compared to the European average, which leads to some
reflections on the green transition.
Key Messages
Employment share in gas-intensive industries, 2019

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Crop farming prevails in the south and islands
• Firms in crop farming are more prevalent in the southern and island regions, where they account for 15.83% and 14.39% of all firms
respectively. In the north-eastern regions this share is slightly lower (11.24%), while in the central and north-western regions it drops
to 7.89% and 5.04% respectively. The national average is 10.06%;
• 8 of the 10 provinces with the highest rate of enterprises in agriculture are located in southern or island regions;
• The share of firms in crop farming is higher than 20% in the top three regions (Basilicata, Molise and Trentino), whereas it is lower
than 6% in the bottom three (Lazio, Liguria and Lombardy). The first 5 provinces have shares ≥ 27%, while the last 5 ≤ 1.6%.
Key Messages
Density of crop farming firms, 2019

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So does wheat-based food production
• This sector is strongly concentrated in the southern and island regions. The spatial distribution of both employment and firms
confirms this general trend;
• The employment shares fluctuate between 2.09% and 3.01% in the four provinces where this value is the highest. They include, in
increasing order, the provinces of Oristano, Agrigento, Enna, South Sardinia and Nuoro, all located in Sardinia and Sicily.
Key Messages
Employment share of wheat-based food production, 2019

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Livestock farming: a unique spatial distribution
• The distribution of livestock farming firms follows a unique pattern: no macro-area clearly prevails over the others;
• Firms in this sector tend to be more prevalent in non-coastal provinces, which are typically hilly or mountainous, such as the Alpine
provinces in the far north and the Apennine provinces along the inland belt of central and southern Italy;
• In the three regions where the share of livestock farming over all firms is the highest, i.e. South Tyrol, Sardinia and Molise, it ranges
between 7.85% and 3.96%. The national average is 1.47% and deviation from this value is ≤ 1 p.p. in all macro-areas;
• Overall, firms in crop farming are six times more numerous than those in livestock farming.
Key Messages
Density of livestock farming firms, 2019

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Russian tourists concentrate in a few places
• Russian citizens accounted for a marginal share (1.33%) of nights spent by foreign visitors in Italy in 2019;
• Spatial variation is significant, ranging from ≤ 0.5% in the bottom 5 regions to three times as much or more in the top 5 regions;
• Veneto, Emilia-Romagna, Lombardy, Lazio and Tuscany account for two thirds of all nights spent by Russian visitors;
• In four of these five regions, the share of Russians over all foreign tourists is higher than the national average;
• Russian tourists tend to concentrate in a few top destinations within regions. For example, Rimini and Rome account for 74.3% and
95.1% of nights spent by Russian visitors in Emilia-Romagna and Lazio respectively.
Key Messages
Share of Russian tourists in total foreign tourists, 2019

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High regional variation in exports to Russia
• Russia accounted only for 1.65% of all Italian exports in 2019, but some sectors and regions are more vulnerable;
• Manufacturing, particularly of machinery and food production, accounted for 96.85% of all exports;
• Russia accounts for almost 3% of all exports from Marche, and just more than 2% for Umbria, Emilia-Romagna, Lazio and Veneto;
• Exports of machinery are concentrated in the northern regions, while food is more evenly distributed across the macro-regions;
• Lazio is a positive outlier in exports of pharmaceutical goods, while clothing stands out in Umbria and Marche;
• Exports to Russia from Sardinia, Basilicata and Sicily are marginal (less than 0.50% of all exports).
Key Messages
Share of exports to Russia in the total, 2019

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• Employment share of gas-intensive
industries:
o Trentino: 2nd quartile (3.06%)
o South Tyrol: 4th quartile (1.53%)
A closer look at Trentino and South Tyrol
4 commodity-dependent sectors
2 sectors dependent on international mobility
• Share of enterprises in crop farming:
o Trentino: 1st quintile (20.57%)
o South Tyrol: 1st quintile (19.19%)
• Employment share of wheat-based
food production:
o Trentino: 5th quintile (0.64%)
o South Tyrol: 3rd quintile (1.13%)
• Share of enterprises in livestock
farming:
o Trentino: 2nd quintile (2.41%)
o South Tyrol: 1st quintile (7.85%)
• Share of Russian tourists:
o Trentino: 2nd quintile (1.03%)
o South Tyrol: 4th quintile (0.52%)
• Share of exports to Russia:
o Trentino: 1.15% (machinery)
o South Tyrol: 0.8%.

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Policy recommendations and next steps
Policy recommendations
1. Multi-level governance can make the difference in addressing asymmetries inherent in shocks
and potentially arising from related policy responses
2. Spatial analysis should inform planning and budgeting in policy areas where both national and
sub-national administrations hold a stake (e.g. active labour market policies)
3. Spatial analysis should inform the distribution of subsidies for firms in industries hit by rising
commodity prices and disruptions in trade
4. Diversify source and destination markets in regions most dependent on Russia supply or
demand.
• Further analysis of the economic and social impacts of the war in Ukraine in Italian regions could
encompass the important issue of refugees and migration
• Future research could also investigate the impacts of the war in Ukraine on consumers in Italian
regions
Next steps

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Thank you!
14-12-2022
19th SPL meeting, Trento
Mattia Corbetta, Policy Analyst
OECD Trento Centre for Local Development
mattia.corbetta@oecd.org