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PIAAC          Lisbon Council                                         15 September 2011OECD Programme for the internationa...
2                 2                                                      Agenda for this morning                          ...
PIAAC               Lisbon Council                                            15 September 2011OECD Programme for the inte...
4                 4                                                          Australia                                    ...
5                 5                                                          Australia                                    ...
6                 6                                                          Australia                                    ...
7                 7                                                          Australia                                    ...
8                 8                                                          Australia                                    ...
9                 9                                                          Australia                                    ...
10   10                                                          Australia                                                ...
11    11                                                          Australia                                               ...
12   12                                                          Australia                                                ...
13   13                                                          Australia                                                ...
14   14                                                          Australia                                                ...
16   16                                                     The composition of the global talent pool has changed…        ...
17   17                                                     The composition of the global talent pool has changed…        ...
18   18                                                                                …and will continue to change       ...
PIAAC           Lisbon CouncilOECD Programme for the international    15 September 2011   assessment of adult competencies...
21   21                                                        PIAAC will                                                ...
22   22                                                                           Key elements of PIAAC                   ...
PIAAC           Lisbon Council                                 OECD Programme for the international    15 September 2011  ...
PIAAC          Lisbon CouncilOECD Programme for the international   15 September 2011   assessment of adult competencies  ...
26   26            15 September 2011                 Andreas SchleicherLisbon Council                                     ...
27                                                                 Low skills and economic outcomes   27                  ...
28   28                                                                                              Marginal probability ...
29                                                                     Low skills and social outcomes   29                ...
30                                                                         Low skills and ICT outcomes   30               ...
31                                                            Producing an effective skill mix   31            15 Septembe...
32   32                                                                    Demographic challenges                         ...
33   33                                                             Keeping learning beyond school                        ...
34                                                                  Optimising the use of skills   34            15 Septem...
35   35                                                                                                                   ...
36   36                                                       Changes in employment shares by occupation                  ...
37                                                                   Skill use by occupational groups   37                ...
38                                                          Skill mismatch by occupational groups   38                    ...
4040international Assessments                                  Making investment in skill                               de...
PIAAC          Lisbon CouncilOECD Programme for the international   15 September 2011   assessment of adult competencies  ...
Components of the private net present value for a man   42   42                                                        wit...
PIAAC          Lisbon CouncilOECD Programme for the international   15 September 2011   assessment of adult competencies  ...
Translating better skills into better economic and social outcomes (Lisbon Council15 September 2011)
Translating better skills into better economic and social outcomes (Lisbon Council15 September 2011)
Translating better skills into better economic and social outcomes (Lisbon Council15 September 2011)
Translating better skills into better economic and social outcomes (Lisbon Council15 September 2011)
Translating better skills into better economic and social outcomes (Lisbon Council15 September 2011)
Translating better skills into better economic and social outcomes (Lisbon Council15 September 2011)
Translating better skills into better economic and social outcomes (Lisbon Council15 September 2011)
Translating better skills into better economic and social outcomes (Lisbon Council15 September 2011)
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Translating better skills into better economic and social outcomes (Lisbon Council 15 September 2011)

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Andreas Schleicher
Special advisor to the Secretary-General on Education Policy
Head of the Indicators and Analysis Division, ED

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Translating better skills into better economic and social outcomes (Lisbon Council 15 September 2011)

  1. 1. PIAAC Lisbon Council 15 September 2011OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies Andreas Schleicher 1 1 Lisbon Council 15 September 2011 Translating better skills into better economic and social outcomes
  2. 2. 2 2 Agenda for this morning  Skills matter for individuals...  because skills have an increasing impact on labour market outcomes and social participation … and for economies 15 September 2011 Andreas Schleicher because failure to ensure a good skills match has bothLisbon Council  short- term consequences (skills shortages) and longer- term effects on economic growth and equality of opportunities … but better skills do not automatically translate into higher incomes and higher productivityPIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies  Success with converting skills into jobs and growth depends on whether – we know what those skills are that drive economic outcomes – the right mix of skills is being taught and learned in effective, equitable and efficient ways – economies and labour-markets fully utilize their skill potential – Governments build strong coalitions with the social partners to find sustainable approaches to who should pay for what, when and where .
  3. 3. PIAAC Lisbon Council 15 September 2011OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies Andreas Schleicher 3 3 more people to higher qualifications Many systems have done well in getting
  4. 4. 4 4 Australia Austria Belgium Canada A world of change – higher education Chile Czech Republic 30,000.0 Denmark Estonia 1995 Finland France 25,000.0 Germany 15 September 2011 Andreas Schleicher Greece Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)Lisbon Council Hungary 20,000.0 Cost per student Iceland Ireland Israel Italy 15,000.0 Japan KoreaPIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies Luxembourg 10,000.0 Mexico Netherland New Zealand Norway 5,000.0 Poland Portugal Slovak Republic 0.0 Slovenia Spain 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Sweden Switzerland Graduate supply Turkey United Kingdom Tertiary-type A graduation rate United States
  5. 5. 5 5 Australia Austria Belgium Canada A world of change – higher education Chile Czech Republic 30,000.0 Denmark Estonia 1995 Finland France 25,000.0 Germany 15 September 2011 Andreas Schleicher Greece Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)Lisbon Council Hungary 20,000.0 Cost per student Iceland United States Ireland Israel Italy 15,000.0 Finland Japan KoreaPIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies Luxembourg Japan 10,000.0 Mexico Netherland New Zealand Norway 5,000.0 Poland Portugal Slovak Republic 0.0 Slovenia Spain 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Sweden Switzerland Graduate supply Turkey United Kingdom Tertiary-type A graduation rate United States
  6. 6. 6 6 Australia Austria Belgium Canada A world of change – higher education Chile Czech Republic 30,000.0 Denmark Estonia 2000 Finland France 25,000.0 Germany 15 September 2011 Andreas Schleicher Greece Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)Lisbon Council Hungary 20,000.0 Iceland Ireland Israel Italy 15,000.0 Japan KoreaPIAAC OECD Programme for the international United Kingdom assessment of adult competencies Luxembourg 10,000.0 Mexico Netherland New Zealand Norway 5,000.0 Poland Portugal Slovak Republic 0.0 Slovenia Spain 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom Tertiary-type A graduation rate United States
  7. 7. 7 7 Australia Austria Belgium Canada A world of change – higher education Chile Czech Republic 30,000.0 Denmark Estonia 2001 Finland France 25,000.0 Germany 15 September 2011 Andreas Schleicher Greece Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)Lisbon Council Hungary 20,000.0 Iceland Ireland Israel Italy 15,000.0 Australia Japan KoreaPIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies Luxembourg 10,000.0 Mexico Netherland New Zealand Norway 5,000.0 Poland Portugal Slovak Republic 0.0 Slovenia Spain 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom Tertiary-type A graduation rate United States
  8. 8. 8 8 Australia Austria Belgium Canada A world of change – higher education Chile Czech Republic 30,000.0 Denmark Estonia 2002 Finland France 25,000.0 Germany 15 September 2011 Andreas Schleicher Greece Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)Lisbon Council Hungary 20,000.0 Iceland Ireland Israel Italy 15,000.0 Japan KoreaPIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies Luxembourg 10,000.0 Mexico Netherland New Zealand Norway 5,000.0 Poland Portugal Slovak Republic 0.0 Slovenia Spain 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom Tertiary-type A graduation rate United States
  9. 9. 9 9 Australia Austria Belgium Canada A world of change – higher education Chile Czech Republic 30,000.0 Denmark Estonia 2003 Finland France 25,000.0 Germany 15 September 2011 Andreas Schleicher Greece Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)Lisbon Council Hungary 20,000.0 Iceland Ireland Israel Italy 15,000.0 Japan KoreaPIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies Luxembourg 10,000.0 Mexico Netherland New Zealand Norway 5,000.0 Poland Portugal Slovak Republic 0.0 Slovenia Spain 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom Tertiary-type A graduation rate United States
  10. 10. 10 10 Australia Austria Belgium Canada A world of change – higher education Chile Czech Republic 30,000.0 Denmark Estonia 2004 Finland France 25,000.0 Germany 15 September 2011 Andreas Schleicher Greece Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)Lisbon Council Hungary 20,000.0 Iceland Ireland Israel Italy 15,000.0 Japan KoreaPIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies Luxembourg 10,000.0 Mexico Netherland New Zealand Norway 5,000.0 Poland Portugal Slovak Republic 0.0 Slovenia Spain 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom Tertiary-type A graduation rate United States
  11. 11. 11 11 Australia Austria Belgium Canada A world of change – higher education Chile Czech Republic 30,000.0 Denmark Estonia 2005 Finland France 25,000.0 Germany 15 September 2011 Andreas Schleicher Greece Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)Lisbon Council Hungary 20,000.0 Iceland Ireland Israel Italy 15,000.0 Japan KoreaPIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies Luxembourg 10,000.0 Mexico Netherland New Zealand Norway 5,000.0 Poland Portugal Slovak Republic 0.0 Slovenia Spain 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom Tertiary-type A graduation rate United States
  12. 12. 12 12 Australia Austria Belgium Canada A world of change – higher education Chile Czech Republic 30,000.0 Denmark Estonia 2006 Finland France 25,000.0 Germany 15 September 2011 Andreas Schleicher Greece Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)Lisbon Council Hungary 20,000.0 Iceland Ireland Israel Italy 15,000.0 Japan KoreaPIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies Luxembourg 10,000.0 Mexico Netherland New Zealand Norway 5,000.0 Poland Portugal Slovak Republic 0.0 Slovenia Spain 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom Tertiary-type A graduation rate United States
  13. 13. 13 13 Australia Austria Belgium Canada A world of change – higher education Chile Czech Republic 30,000.0 Denmark Estonia 2007 Finland France 25,000.0 Germany 15 September 2011 Andreas Schleicher Greece Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)Lisbon Council Hungary 20,000.0 Iceland Ireland Israel Italy 15,000.0 Japan KoreaPIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies Luxembourg 10,000.0 Mexico Netherland New Zealand Norway 5,000.0 Poland Portugal Slovak Republic 0.0 Slovenia Spain 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom Tertiary-type A graduation rate United States
  14. 14. 14 14 Australia Austria Belgium Canada A world of change – higher education Chile Czech Republic 30,000.0 Denmark Estonia 2008 Finland France 25,000.0 Germany 15 September 2011 Andreas Schleicher Greece Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)Lisbon Council Hungary 20,000.0 Iceland Finland Ireland Israel Italy 15,000.0 Japan KoreaPIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies Luxembourg 10,000.0 Mexico Netherland New Zealand Norway 5,000.0 Poland Portugal Slovak Republic 0.0 Slovenia Spain 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom Tertiary-type A graduation rate United States
  15. 15. 16 16 The composition of the global talent pool has changed… Countries’ share in the population with tertiary education, for 25-34 and 55-64 year- old age groups, percentage (2009) 55-64-year-old population 25-34-year-old population 15 September 2011 Andreas SchleicherLisbon CouncilPIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies About 39 million people About 81 million people who attained tertiary level who attained tertiary level
  16. 16. 17 17 The composition of the global talent pool has changed… Countries’ share in the population with tertiary education, for 25-34 and 55-64 year- old age groups, percentage (2009) 55-64-year-old population 25-34-year-old population 15 September 2011 Andreas Schleicher UnitedLisbon Council United other, 14.5 States, 20.5 other, 12.9 States, 35.8 Korea, 1.6 Australia, 1.7 Korea, 5.7 Mexico, 1.8 Australia, 1.6PIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies Italy, 1.9 Mexico, 3.9 Spain, 2.1 Italy, 2.0 Japan, 10.9 Brazil, 3.5 Spain, 3.5 France, 3.5 Canada, 4.2 Brazil, 4.5 United France, 4.1 China, 18.3 Kingdom, 5.3 Japan, 12.4 Canada, 3.1 Germany, 6.3 Germany, 3.1 China, 6.9 United Kingdom, 4.4
  17. 17. 18 18 …and will continue to change Share of new entrants into tertiary education in 2009 (all OECD and G20 countries) Other China, 36.6% countries, 4.8% 15 September 2011 Andreas SchleicherLisbon Council Netherlands, 0.5 % Other Portugal 0.5% Chile, 1.3% Czech Republic 0.4% Australia, 1.3% Israel 0.4%PIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies Sweden 0.4% Italy, 1.4% Belgium 0.4% Spain, 1.6% Hungary 0.4% Poland, 2.1% Austria 0.4% New Zealand 0.3% Germany, 2.5% United Switzerland 0.3% States, 12.9%Slovak Republic 0.3% Argentina, 2.7% Denmark 0.2% Korea, 3.1% Norway 0.2% Ireland 0.2% Mexico, 3.1% Russian Finland 0.2% Federation, 10.0 Slovenia 0.1% United % Estonia 0.1% Kingdom, 3.3% Japan, 4.2% Indonesia, 4.9% Iceland 0.0% Turkey, 3.7%
  18. 18. PIAAC Lisbon CouncilOECD Programme for the international 15 September 2011 assessment of adult competencies Andreas Schleicher 20 20 ...but qualifications are not the same as skills...
  19. 19. 21 21  PIAAC will  in each country interview 5000 adults aged 16-65 in their homes and testing their skills  collect information on the antecedents, outcomes and contexts of skill development and use … in order to… 15 September 2011 Andreas SchleicherLisbon Council  provide a comprehensive assessment of the human capital stock  show to what extent skills held by individuals are actually used at work and identify the role skills play in improving labour market prospectsPIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies  improve understanding of the labour market and social returns to education and training  help governments better understand how education and training systems can nurture these skills  help countries prioritise investment of scarce resources in education  contribute to building strategic partnerships for policy implementation .
  20. 20. 22 22 Key elements of PIAAC Measures of adult Measures of key competencies social and economic  Test-based measures in areas outcomes where methodologies exist Labour-market experience 15 September 2011 Andreas Schleicher  Indirect measures in other , status andLisbon Council  areas that support PIAAC‘s transitions, earnings, adult policy objectives learning, social outcomes Surveyed: Surveyed: individuals individuals Assessment: Assessment: direct and indirectPIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies indirect Surveyed: Surveyed: individuals individuals Measures of the A background Assessment: Assessment: utilisation of indirect, indirect questionnaire competencies e.g. JRA  To contextualise and analyse determinants of at the workplace competencies, their  Through a development, and their job-requirement survey use
  21. 21. PIAAC Lisbon Council OECD Programme for the international 15 September 2011 assessment of adult competencies Andreas Schleicher 23 23 150 200 250 300 350 Skill scoreSource: PIAAC Field trial Not completed school Upper secondary University Not completed school Upper secondary University Not completed school Upper secondary University Measuring the value of qualifications Interquartile range in skill distribution by educational qualification
  22. 22. PIAAC Lisbon CouncilOECD Programme for the international 15 September 2011 assessment of adult competencies Andreas Schleicher 24 24 PIAAC participating countries Round 1 Round 2
  23. 23. 26 26 15 September 2011 Andreas SchleicherLisbon Council Skills matter for individuals… …because skills have an increasing impact on labour market outcomes and social participationPIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies
  24. 24. 27 Low skills and economic outcomes 27 Increased likelihood of failure (16-65 year olds) 3.5 In lowest two quintiles of personal 3.0 income 15 September 2011 Andreas SchleicherLisbon Council Unemployed 2.5 2.0 Received socialPIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies assistance in last 1.5 year Did not receive 1.0 investment income in 0 1 2 3 4 last year Number of skills domains with low performance Odds are adjusted for age, gender and immigration status.
  25. 25. 28 28 Marginal probability of being unemployed by skill decile 16-65 years 16-24 years 0.12 Probability of being unemployed 15 September 2011 Andreas Schleicher 0.10Lisbon Council 0.08 y = -0.007x + 0.115 0.06PIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies 0.04 y = -0.004x + 0.075 0.02 0.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Skill decile Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4/5 Adjusted for age, gender, foreign language status, and country.
  26. 26. 29 Low skills and social outcomes 29 Odds ratios Has fair to poor health 2.6 Does not volunteer for 15 September 2011 2.4 Andreas Schleicher charity or non-profitLisbon Council 2.2 organizations Poor understanding of 2.0 political issues facing country 1.8 Poor level of general trustPIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies 1.6 Higher propensity of 1.4 believing people try to take 1.2 of advantage of others Lower propensity to 1.0 reciprocate Level 5 Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1 PIAAC skill level Poor political efficacy Odds are adjusted for age, gender, pand immigration status.
  27. 27. 30 Low skills and ICT outcomes 30 Odds ratios 3.0 In bottom half of computer 15 September 2011 Andreas Schleicher 2.5 engagement at home indexLisbon Council 2.0 Do not use internet at work 1.5PIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies 1.0 0.5 0.0 Level 5 Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1 Proxy skill level Source: PIAAC Field trial Odds are adjusted for age, gender, education, parents education and immigration status.
  28. 28. 31 Producing an effective skill mix 31 15 September 2011 Andreas SchleicherLisbon CouncilPIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies Drivers of current and future demand of skills Instruments to ensure responsiveness of education provision to labour demand Optimising access to education and training throughout life Impact of migration and international labour mobility on skill formation systems
  29. 29. 32 32 Demographic challenges Skills by age Skill score 305 295 15 September 2011 Andreas Schleicher 285Lisbon Council 275 265 255PIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies 245 235 225 15 25 35 45 55 65 No adjustment Age Adjusted for immigrant status and education Adjusted for immigrant status, education and reading engagement
  30. 30. 33 33 Keeping learning beyond school Cross-sectional skill-age profiles for youths by education and work status Mean skill score 320 310 Youth in education 15 September 2011 Andreas Schleicher 300Lisbon Council Youth in and work 290 education 280 270 260 Youth in workPIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies 250 240 230 Not in education, 220 not in work 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Age Linear (In education only) Linear (In education and work) Linear (Work only) Linear (NEET)
  31. 31. 34 Optimising the use of skills 34 15 September 2011 Andreas SchleicherLisbon CouncilPIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies Which measures help optimise the utilisation of skills on the job? How can workforce participation be boosted? Which tools facilitate the recognition of skills? How can transparency of skills systems be ensured? What information is necessary to facilitate matching of skills?
  32. 32. 35 35 How the demand for skills has changed Economy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US) Mean task input as percentiles of the 1960 task distribution 65 Routine manual 15 September 2011 Andreas Schleicher 60Lisbon Council Nonroutine manual 55 Routine cognitivePIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies 50 Nonroutine analytic 45 Nonroutine interactive 40 1960 1970 1980 The dilemma for education and training: 1990 2002 The skills that are easiest to teach and test are also the ones that are easiest to (Levy and Murnane) digitise, automate and outsource
  33. 33. 36 36 Changes in employment shares by occupation 1960-2009, selected OECD countries 20 15 10 15 September 2011 Andreas SchleicherLisbon Council 5 0 -5PIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 Prof. and Tech. Admin. and Clerical Sales Service Farm Prod. and Manag. labour. Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland , Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom and United States.
  34. 34. 37 Skill use by occupational groups 37 Problem solving 1.00 Computer use Teamwork 0.80 0.60 Internet use 0.40 Oral communication 15 September 2011 Andreas Schleicher 0.20Lisbon Council 0.00 -0.20 Basic numeracy -0.40 Influence others -0.60 -0.80 -1.00 Advanced numeracy Plan own timePIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies Write Plan others time Read document type texts Fine motor skills Read prose type texts Gross motor skills Total Service (low-skill) Goods Information (low-skill) Information (high-skill) Managers Knowledge (expert) Source: PIAAC Field trial
  35. 35. 38 Skill mismatch by occupational groups 38 HIGH-SKILL MATCH 60% 50% 40% 15 September 2011 Andreas SchleicherLisbon Council 30% 20% 10% MISMATCH-SKILL MISMATCH-SKILL 0% DEFICIT SURPLUSPIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies LOW-SKILL MATCH Goods Service (low-skill) Information (low-skill) Information (high-skill) Managers Knowledge (expert) Source: PIAAC Field trial
  36. 36. 4040international Assessments Making investment in skill development and utilisation moreImpact of efficient 16 September 2009 Andreas Schleicher Who should pay for what, when and how? Which is the right level of intervention (regional and local dimension)? How should financing and incentives (to employers and individuals) be structured? What are good models of policy evaluation to ensure efficiency/continuity of skills policies?
  37. 37. PIAAC Lisbon CouncilOECD Programme for the international 15 September 2011 assessment of adult competencies Andreas Schleicher 41 41 Individuals are getting a good return…
  38. 38. Components of the private net present value for a man 42 42 with higher education (2007 or latest available year) Direct cost Foregone earnings Income tax effect Social contribution effect Transfers effect Grosss earnings benefits Unemployment effect Portugal 373,851 United States 323,808 Italy 311,966 Korea 15 September 2011 Andreas Schleicher 300,868 IrelandLisbon Council 253,947 Czech Republic 240,449 Hungary 230,098 Slovenia 225,663 Poland 215,125 United Kingdom 207,653 Canada 175,670 OECD Average 175,067 Austria 173,522PIAAC OECD Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies Germany 147,769 France 144,133 Japan 143,018 Finland 135,515 Net Belgium 115,464 present Netherlands 112,928 value in Australia 100,520 Spain 95,320 USD Norway 92,320 equ. New Zealand 74,457 Turkey 64,177 Sweden 62,481 Denmark 55,946 -400,000 -200,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 USD equivalent C hart A9.3
  39. 39. PIAAC Lisbon CouncilOECD Programme for the international 15 September 2011 assessment of adult competencies Andreas Schleicher 44 44 …Taxpayers are getting a good return too

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