The Future of Higher Education - Four OECD Scenarios


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Mihaylo Milovanovitch
OECD Directorate for Education
3rd Congress on Innovation
Porto Alegre, 18 November 2010

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The Future of Higher Education - Four OECD Scenarios

  1. 1. The Future of Higher Education Four OECD Scenarios Mihaylo Milovanovitch OECD Directorate for Education 3rd Congress on Innovation Porto Alegre, 18 November 2010
  2. 2. Outline <ul><li>OECD – an overview </li></ul><ul><li>A glance on some trends </li></ul><ul><li>Higher Education to 2030 – project and research outline </li></ul><ul><li>Four OECD scenarios </li></ul>
  3. 3. OECD – an overview <ul><li>The Future of Higher Education </li></ul>
  4. 4. 34 OECD Members Australia (1971) Hungary (1996) Poland (1996) Austria (1961) Iceland (1961) Portugal (1961) Belgium (1961) Ireland (1961) Slovak Republic (2000) Canada (1961) Israel (2010) Slovenia (2010) Chile (2010) Italy (1961) Spain (1961) Czech Republic (1995) Japan (1964) Sweden (1961) Denmark (1961) Korea (1996) Switzerland (1961) Estonia (2010) Luxemburg (1961) Turkey (1961) Finland (1969) Mexico (1994) United Kingdom (1961) France (1961) Netherlands (1961) United States of America (1961) Germany (1961) New Zealand (1973) Greece (1961) Norway (1961)
  5. 5. Policy areas for co-operation
  6. 6. 1998 PISA countries in 2000 2001 2003 2006 2009 Coverage of world economy 77% 81% 83% 85% 86% 87%
  7. 7. An overview OECD Directorate for Education
  8. 8. Selected Trends <ul><li>The Future of Higher Education </li></ul>Credits: SCBWI
  9. 9. % 1. Excluding ISCED 3C short programmes 2. Year of reference 2004 3. Including some ISCED 3C short programmes 3. Year of reference 2003. 10 1 1 29 Selected Trends A world of change in the global skill supply Evolution of school completion Approximated by % of persons with high school or equivalent qualfications in the age groups 55-64, 45-55, 45-44 und 25-34 years 37 35
  10. 10. Selected Trends Tertiary educational attainment of 25-64 population (%) OECD (2008): Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography
  11. 11. Selected Trends How the demand of skills has changed Economy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US) (Levy and Murnane) Mean task input as percentiles of the 1960 task distribution
  12. 12. Selected Trends Excellence in education and countries’ research intensity Percentage of students at Levels 5 or 6 in the PISA assessment
  13. 13. Selected Trends Projected Tertiary Enrolments in 2025 under Recent Trends (2005=100) OECD (2008): Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography
  14. 14. Selected Trends Demographic Shape of Tertiary Education in the Future Source: OECD (2009) Graduate education Continuing education First degree First degree Graduate education Continuing education
  15. 15. Selected Trends Evolution of share of private HE enrollments 1970-2006 Source: OECD (2009)
  16. 16. Selected Trends Increase in the Number of Foreign Students Worldwide and Projections Source: OECD (2009)
  17. 17. Project and Research Outline <ul><li>The Future of Higher Education </li></ul>
  18. 18. Project and Research Outline Long-term Policy Planning <ul><li>Although long term thinking in education is important, educational policy making is often done with a short term perspective. </li></ul><ul><li>Selected forward looking OECD projects: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Schooling for Tomorrow </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Future of Higher Education – University Futures </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Innovation Strategy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>AHELO Project </li></ul></ul>
  19. 19. Project and Research Outline A Brief Overview <ul><li>Objectives </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Feed strategic reflection on major questions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Highlight past developments and recent changes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Underline future opportunities and challenges from an international standpoint </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Main types of activity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Thematic trends analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dialogue with stakeholders and experts – basis for the: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>> Thematic reports </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>> Future scenarios </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>NB: International standpoint as a special feature </li></ul></ul>
  20. 20. Project and Research Outline Higher Education to 2030 Series <ul><li>Vol. 1: Demography (2008) </li></ul><ul><li>Vol. 2: Globalisation (2009) </li></ul><ul><li>Vol. 3: Technology (forthcoming) </li></ul><ul><li>Vol. 4: Scenarios (forthcoming) </li></ul>
  21. 21. Four OECD Scenarios <ul><li>The Future of Higher Education </li></ul>
  22. 22. OECD Scenarios University Futures – Scenarios <ul><li>Scenarios are not predictions of the future… </li></ul><ul><li>They are largely rooted in the present... </li></ul><ul><li>And try to balance relevance and imagination </li></ul>
  23. 23. OECD Scenarios University Futures - Scenarios <ul><li>Open networking </li></ul><ul><li>Serving local communities </li></ul><ul><li>New public responsibility </li></ul><ul><li>Higher education, Inc. </li></ul>
  24. 24. OECD Scenarios Scenario 1 – Open Networking <ul><li>Main features </li></ul><ul><li>Global, harmonized higher education systems </li></ul><ul><li>Personalised, more interactive teaching </li></ul><ul><li>Shared language (English as lingua franca) </li></ul><ul><li>Research is collaborative, but partnerships are determined by institutional prestige </li></ul><ul><li>Free and better access to knowledge and research </li></ul><ul><li>What could make this scenario happen? </li></ul><ul><li>Harmonisation of higher education systems </li></ul><ul><li>Lower costs of communication and transportation </li></ul><ul><li>Spread of the ideal of open knowledge . </li></ul>Related developments in the present Bologna Process in Europe; increased mobility; cheap and accessible computing power and communications; a culture of openness regarding intellectual property rights
  25. 25. <ul><li>Main features </li></ul><ul><li>Universities are focused on national, regional and/or local missions </li></ul><ul><li>Mainly publicly funded and administered systems </li></ul><ul><li>Streghtened financial support from local entities </li></ul><ul><li>Academics are trusted professionals with teaching as their central objective </li></ul><ul><li>Convergence between universities and polytechnics </li></ul><ul><li>What could make this scenario happen? </li></ul><ul><li>Anti-globalisation movements </li></ul><ul><li>Scepticism in the public regarding internationalisation </li></ul><ul><li>Emergence of geo-strategic concerns </li></ul>Related developments in the present Migration is a problematic issue in many countries; growing anti-globalisation movement based on economic and cultural grounds; social responsibility of universities is more and more in the policy debate OECD Scenarios Scenario 2 – Serving Local Communities
  26. 26. <ul><li>Main features </li></ul><ul><li>Public funding, autonomy of institutions , yet with greater use of ‘new public management’ tools </li></ul><ul><li>Diversified funding sources </li></ul><ul><li>Strong public accountability, but also more private reward systems </li></ul><ul><li>National competition for public research funding </li></ul><ul><li>What could make this scenario happen? </li></ul><ul><li>Mounting budget pressures and rising public debt </li></ul><ul><li>Diversification of stakeholders, caused by diversification of funding </li></ul>Related developments in the present General quest for accountability, transparency, efficiency and effectiveness in public management; Increasing institutional autonomy in many countries ; Cost-sharing and raising tuition fees increasingly under debate; Increasingly competitive research funding OECD Scenarios Scenario 3 – New Public Responsibility
  27. 27. <ul><li>Main features </li></ul><ul><li>Institutions competing globally on a commercial basis </li></ul><ul><li>Public funding exclusively to non-commercially viable disciplines </li></ul><ul><li>Strong competition for students with English as a key language of study </li></ul><ul><li>Disconnection of research and teaching according to competitive advantage </li></ul><ul><li>Concentration of research with worldwide competition for funding </li></ul><ul><li>What could make this scenario happen? </li></ul><ul><li>Trade liberalisation in education (GATS of the WTO) </li></ul><ul><li>Low transportation and communication costs, </li></ul><ul><li>Rise in private funding </li></ul>Related developments in the present Trade in higher education and inclusion of it in trade negotiations; Increasing international mobility of students and cross-border higher education; Increase of cross-border funding of research and private research activities OECD Scenarios Scenario 4 – Higher Education Inc.
  28. 28. OECD Scenarios Four Scenarios for Higher Education Systems Serving Local Communities International National Market Demand-driven Administration Supply-driven Open Networking Higher Education Inc. New Public Responsibility
  29. 29. Thank you! [email_address] ; www.oecd./org/edu/nme