Housing policy issues and relevance of Tax Authority data to produce house prices statistics in Portugal. Workshop on Modernising Statistical Systems, OECD.

1. OECD Working Party on Territorial Indicators
Workshop
FRANCISCO VALA | Statistics Portugal
JORGE MALHEIROS | CEG-IGOT-University of Lisbon
Paris, 5th November 2018
Modernising statistical systems for better data on regions and cities
Housing policy issues and relevance of Tax Authority
data to produce house prices and rents statistics in
Portugal

2. 1 Debates on housing and policy issues
2
3
AGENDA
Key questions to be answered in housing access
and housing inequality
Tax Authority data to produce house prices and
rents and envisaged new housing market statistics
4 Final remarks

3. Debates on housing and policy issues
A financial perspective
The 2018 IMF annual report for Portugal addresses the housing market in
the Macro-Financial Issues and Policies section stating that:
 Housing prices continue to increase, but there is no significant
overvaluation yet
 Higher prices especially in Lisboa, Porto and the Algarve
 Increases driven largely by transactions on existing dwellings by non-
residents
 Share of housing transactions financed by Portuguese mortgages has
been growing since 2015

4. Proportion of owner occupied dwellings with mortgage, Portugal and
municipality, 1991, 2011 and 2011
 73% of dwellings occupied by the owner
 Progress of housing ownership with
mortgages as the dominant form of
housing access
 An intense phenomena in Metropolitan
areas, the Algarve and several medium-
sized cities Source: Statistics Portugal, Population and housing census
22,33
31,45
42,87
0
10
20
30
40
50
1991 2001 2011
%
0 50 km
Municipalities
Frequencies
] 42.87 ; 70 ]
] 32 ; 42.87 ]
] 22 ; 32 ]
] 7 ; 22 ]
PT
%
Territorial Limits
Municipality
NUTS II
NUTS III
11231697125 1101167111 71857973 70858073

5. Proportion of urban estates sale contracts with mortgage and Total number
of real estates sale contracts, Portugal, 2011-2017
 Reduction of real estate market activity during the crisis with an intense decline
in contracts with mortgages
 Strong reanimation of the market after 2014:
 raise of the number of transactions
 Increase in the proportion of contracts with loans
112 062
168 79855,60
40,47
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
No. %
Source: Directorate-General for Justice
Policy, Operations over real estates

6. Proportion of real estate sales (urban) to non-residents in the total of real
estate sales, Portugal, 2012-2017
Increasing presence of foreigner investment
in the Portuguese Real estate market, but…
 Progressive reduction in the past 3 years
Uneven distribution of the foreign regional
investment in housing:
 Higher values in Algarve and MA
 More expressive in touristic regions such
as Madeira, Oeste and the South
8,41
10,66
15,74
14,38
12,48
11,46
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
%
0 50 km
NUTS III
Frequencies
] 11.5 ; 40.9 ]
] 8 ; 11.5 ]
] 5 ; 8 ]
[ 2.4 ; 5 ]
52595237
%
Territorial limits
NUTS III
NUTS II
61054
thousands euros
298 466
1 193 862
596 931
Source: Directorate-General for Justice
Policy, Operations over real estates

7. Median value per m² of dwellings sales, Portugal, NUTS III and municipality,
2nd Q2018
0 400 800 1 200 1 600 2 000 2 400 2 800
Alto Alentejo
Beiras e S.Estrela
Baixo Alentejo
Beira Baixa
Douro
T.Trás-os-Montes
Alto Tâmega
Médio Tejo
Tâmega e Sousa
Lezíria do Tejo
Viseu Dão Lafões
R.A.Açores
Região de Leiria
Ave
Alentejo Central
Cávado
Alto Minho
Região de Aveiro
Oeste
Região de Coimbra
Alentejo Litoral
A.M.Porto
PORTUGAL
R.A.Madeira
A.M.Lisboa
Algarve
NUTS III Lowestmunicipalvalue Highestmunicipalvalue
PORTUGAL
€ / m²
0
LouléMonchique
Moita Lisboa
FunchalSantana
Lisboa
Pampilhosa da Serra
SinesAlcácer do Sal
Arouca Porto
Coimbra
Pampilhosa da Serra
Bombarral Nazaré
AveiroS. Vouga
CaminhaMelgaço
V. Verde Esposende
ÉvoraPortel
V. N. Famalicão
M. Basto
Ponta Delgada
Lajes do Pico
Leiria
C. Pêra
Aguiar Beira
Viseu
BenaventeChamusca
Resende
Penafiel
Ourém
Sardoal
Chaves
Boticas
Vimioso
Mirandela
Vila Real
F. Espada Cinta
Penamacor
Castelo Branco
Beja
Mértola
Fronteira
Portalegre
Covilhã
Fª .C.Rodrigo
0 50 km
Municipalities
Frequencies
] 969 ; 2 753 ]
] 620 ; 969 ]
] 440 ; 620 ]
[ 130 ; 440 ]
PT
€/m
2
Not applicable
Territorial Limits 95779538
Municipality
NUTS II
NUTS III
Source: Statistics Portugal, Statistics on house prices at local level

8. Debates on housing and policy issues
A sociospatial perspective
The 2017 UN report on adequate housing in Portugal puts focus on the
following topics:
 access to housing, affordability and quality of housing, including
informal settlements and housing conditions of deprived social groups
 social housing, including its extension, maintenance and localization
 “touristification” and short-term rental and its effects on housing
market prices and on community networks and the social fabric
 “golden visas” program and its eligibility criteria regarding the purchase
of real estate property and possible effects on housing market prices

9. 1 462
1758
1 051
2663
832
1419
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
∕∕
Local
Accommodation
Hotel
establishments
RTHT
No.
Source: INE, Guests stays and other data
on hotel activity survey
Number of tourist accommodation establishments
by type, 2013-2017
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400
Localaccomodationper1000dwellingsstock(No.)
Median value of dwellings sales (€/ m²), 4th Q2017
PT= 932 €/ m²
PT= 1.06
//
65
70
R. Coimbra
A.M. Lisboa
Alto Tâmega R.A.Açores
Algarve
R.A. Madeira
Oeste
Alentejo Litoral
A.M. Porto
Beiras e
S. Estrela
Alto Minho
Médio Tejo
Cávado R. Aveiro
Alentejo Central
NUTS III with LQ higher than 1
Tourism dynamics and housing prices
Ratio of local accommodation per dwellings stock and Median
value per m² of dwellings sales, Portugal and NUTS 3, 4thQ 2017
 Increase of local accommodation establishments from 2014 onwards especially in
touristic regions and historical centers of main cities

10. Ratio of conventional dwellings of usual residence rented per 100 dwellings
occupied by the owner, Portugal and municipality, 1991, 2011 and 2011
 Evidences of a rental market limited and
in decline, but experiencing a recovery in
the crisis period
 Rental housing market stocks particularly
relevant in Lisbon and Porto
 Also relevant in the inner metropolitan
crowns and in some medium-sized cities Source: Statistics Portugal, Population and housing census
0 50 km
Municipalities
Frequencies
] 51 ; 90 ]
] 27.47 ; 51 ]
] 14 ; 27.47]
] 1 ; 14 ]
PT
No.
Territorial Limits
Municipality
NUTS II
NUTS III
11231697125 1101167111 148111472 149110472
42,54
27,54
27,47
0
10
20
30
40
50
1991 2001 2011
No.

11. 0 50 km
Municipalities
Frequencies
] 4.39 ; 9.62 ]
] 3.3 ; 4.39 ]
] 2.7 ; 3.3 ]
[ 1.6 ; 2.7 ]
PT
€/m
2
Not applicable
9664 52595237Territorial Limits
NUTS II
NUTS III
Municipality
Median value per m² of new lease agreements of dwellings, Portugal, NUTS III
and municipality, 2nd Q2018
Source: Statistics Portugal, Statistics on house rents at local level0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Baixo Alentejo
Alto Tâmega
Alentejo Litoral
Beira Baixa
Alto Alentejo
Douro
T.Trás-os-Montes
R.A. Madeira
Alentejo Central
R.A. Açores
Beiras e S. Estrela
Médio Tejo
Tâmega e Sousa
Viseu Dão Lafões
Lezíria do Tejo
Alto Minho
Ave
Região de Leiria
Oeste
Cávado
Região de Aveiro
Região de Coimbra
Algarve
A. M. Porto
A. M. Lisboa
%
Sub-regional contribution to Total new lease agreements, 2017

12. 0 5 10
T.Trás-os-Montes
Tâmega e Sousa
Beiras e S. Estrela
Beira Baixa
Alto Alentejo
Alto Tâmega
Douro
Médio Tejo
Ave
Viseu Dão Lafões
Alto Minho
Baixo Alentejo
Lezíria do Tejo
Região de Leiria
R.A. Açores
Alentejo Central
Cávado
Região de Aveiro
Oeste
Região de Coimbra
Alentejo Litoral
PORTUGAL
A. M. Porto
Algarve
R.A. Madeira
A. M. Lisboa
Highestmunicipalvalue Lowestmunicipalvalue NUTS III
PORTUGAL
€ / m²
LisboaMoita
Machico Funchal
AlbufeiraS. Brás Alportel
PortoV. Cambra
Alcácer do Sal Sines
CoimbraMortágua
Bombarral T. Vedras
AveiroS. Vouga
EsposendeAmares
V. Viçosa Évora
Praia da VitóriaHorta
LeiriaP. Mós
AzambujaChamusca
BejaMoura
P. Barca Viana do Castelo
ViseuSátão
C. de Basto V.N. Famalicão
TomarAlcanena
Vila RealV.N. Foz Côa
Valpaços Chaves
Ponte de SorC. Maior
Castelo Branco
CovilhãBelmonte
Lousada Penafiel
Bragança
M. Cavaleiros
LisboaBelmonte
Median value per m² of new lease agreements of dwellings, Portugal, NUTS III
and municipality, 2nd Q2018
0 50 km
Municipalities
Frequencies
] 4.39 ; 9.62 ]
] 3.3 ; 4.39 ]
] 2.7 ; 3.3 ]
[ 1.6 ; 2.7 ]
PT
€/m
2
Not applicable
9664 52595237Territorial Limits
NUTS II
NUTS III
Municipality
Source: Statistics Portugal, Statistics on house rents at local level

13. Ratio of social housing dwellings per dwellings stock, Portugal and
municipality, 2012 and 2015
 Residual stock of public housing (2%)
and production negligible in the last
decade
 Public housing stocks particularly
important in Lisbon and Porto
metropolitan areas and in some
middle-sized cities Source: INE, Social Housing Survey
and Statistics on construction works completed
0 50 km
Municipalities
Frequencies
] 5.0 ; 10.4 ]
] 2.02 ; 5.0 ]
] 1.0 ; 2.02 ]
] 0 ; 1.0 ]
0
PT
%
Territorial Limits
Municipality
NUTS II
NUTS III
3717253388
2,00 2,02
2012 2015
2,02 2,00 2,02
1,5
1,8
2,0
2,3
2011 2012 2015
0,0
//

14. Proportion of overcrowded living dwellings, Portugal and municipality, 1991,
2011 and 2011
 General trend to a reduction in
overcrowding: reduction in family size;
standards of new housing
 Lower overcrowding in areas combining
ageing and higher levels of emigration
 Higher over crowding in the Algarve,
LMA, Northwest and Autonomous
Regions of Azores and Madeira Source: Statistics Portugal, Population and housing census
22,96
15,9
11,36
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1991 2001 2011
%
0 50 km
Municipalities
Frequencies
] 15 ; 33 ]
] 11.36 ; 15 ]
] 8 ; 11.36 ]
] 3 ; 8 ]
PT
%
Territorial Limits
Municipality
NUTS II
NUTS III
11231697125 1101167111 1151115923

15. Debates on housing and policy issues
New generation of Housing Policies in PT
In 2018 the Government outlined new policy instruments to reach the
following strategic targets:
 To meet the needs of families that live in a severe situation of housing
deprivation
 To guarantee access to housing for those who are unable to meet their
needs in the housing market
 To set the conditions so that rehabilitation is the main form of
intervention on buildings and at the urban development level
 To promote social and territorial inclusion and opportunities for housing
choice
Information for monitoring: housing prices and rents and accessibility

16. Key questions to be answered
Data needs at regional and local levels
 Housing stock, production and rehabilitation – Construction works Stats
 Housing prices and rents evolution by segment
 Evolution of housing market tenure …
 Metrics on affordability and families effort to housing access
 Foreign demand and corporate investments in the housing market
 Social housing dynamics – Social Housing Survey
 Metrics on housing conditions – Survey on Income and Living Conditions
 Impact of housing market regulation, including supply and demand side
subsidies, fiscal benefits and spatial planning
 Impact of touristification in the housing market

17. National Statistical System - Legal basis
Law no. 22/2008
Establishes principles, rules and structure of the NSS
Framework for the production of official statistics in PT
Protocol with
Tax Authority
 First established in 2005 and reviewed in April 2018
 It includes now more detailed and disaggregated data
covering several tax domains
 Relevant for housing statistics  Data on Patrimony
(Municipal Property Transfer Tax, Municipal Property
Tax and Lease Agreements) and Data on Income
 It defines the mandate for Statistics Portugal to have access to
administrative data
 Access to administrative data is usually framed by means of a bilateral
Protocol

18. Tax Authority data to produce house
prices and rents statistics
 House prices statistics – quarterly, up to parish level + 500 m grid:
• Municipal Property Transfer Tax (IMT): from which the transaction
prices are obtained → flow data
• Municipal Property Tax (IMI): from which identifying characteristics of
the transacted dwelling are obtained → stock data
 House rents statistics – yearly, up to municipality:
• Communication of lease agreements (Model 2): from which the house
rental value of new lease agreements are obtained → flow data
• Municipal Property Tax (IMI) → stock data
 The link between sources is made at the dwelling level
 Data transmission framed by the new protocol will include
‘pseudonymized’ data and characteristics of fiscal individuals

19. Area
Use
Category
Typology
Flats
Municipal
Property Transfer
Tax (IMT)
Dwelling
ID
Municipal
Property Tax
(IMT)
Value €
Use
Median value per m2 of dwellings sales (€)
Category of housing unit, Typology, Flats
Dwellings sales (No.)
Disseminated outputs
Owner tax number
Resident / Non-resident
NEW
Median value per m2 of dwellings sales (€) – Individual /
corporation investment
Dwellings sales (No.) – Individual / corporation investment
Median value per m2 of dwellings sales (€) – National/foreign
investment
Dwellings sales (No.) – National/foreign investment
Possible new outputs
Transactional intensity (No. of times the
same asset has been sold in a period time)
Possible new outputs
Tax Authority data to produce house prices

20. Dwelling
ID
New lease agreements of dwellings (No.) – resident / non-resident
owners
New lease agreements of dwellings (No.) – Individual / corporations
Median house rental value per m2 of new lease agreements of dwellings
(€) – Individual / corporations
Median house rental value per m2 of new lease agreements of dwellings
(€) – resident / non-resident owners
Families’ effort rate by
social economic goups
Value €
Rental duration
Lease
agreements
(Stamp tax)
Municipal
Property Tax
Area
Housing characteristics
Owner tax number
Resident / Non-resident
NEW
Possible new outputs
New lease agreements of dwellings (No.)
Median house rental value per m2 of new
lease agreements of dwellings (€)
Disseminated outputs
Electronic
receipt
Dwelling
ID
Individual
ID
Individual Tax
Income (IRS)
Tenants tax number
NEW
NEW Possible new outputs
Duration of rental agreements (Months)
Possible new outputs
Tax Authority data to produce house rentals

21. Final remarks
Tax Authority data, due to its high spatial granularity and domains covered, is
extremely relevant to provide new statistics for monitoring the housing market
evolution, but…
… viability analysis for new statistics will still have to be carried out
 Housing prices and rents evolution by segment
 Metrics on affordability and families effort to housing access
 Foreign demand and corporate investments in the housing market
Stronger integration at micro level of Tax Authority data with other sources (e.g.
Operations over real estates statistics from the Ministry of Justice and
Construction works data from Statistics Portugal) is essential to leverage the
insights on housing and real estate markets…
… the single system of real estate codification being put in place for Public
Administration will be crucial for further data integration

22. OECD Working Party on Territorial Indicators
Workshop
FRANCISCO VALA | Statistics Portugal
JORGE MALHEIROS | CEG-IGOT-University of Lisbon
Paris, 5th November 2018
Modernising statistical systems for better data on regions and cities
Housing policy issues and relevance of Tax Authority
data to produce house prices and rents statistics in
Portugal