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Assessing capabilities to manage critical risks: Swedish experiences

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Assessing capabilities to manage critical risks: Swedish experiences

  1. 1. Assessing Capabilities to manage critical risks Swedish experiences Magnus Winehav Civil Preparedness Department
  2. 2. Agenda • Strategic planning process • National risk assessment • National risk and capability assessment • Strategic foresight
  3. 3. The Swedish Context • Crisis Preparedness and peace related hazards since 2000 • Total defence planning resumed 2015 • Total defence = military defence and civil defence • Civil defence based on Crisis Preparedness • Total defence planning increases capability to prepare for and respond to all hazards Pop: 10, 1 million Area: 449 964 km2
  4. 4. Comprehensive strategic planning - 5 year cycle • MSB together with the Swedish Armed forces, same view on: • Scenarios • Endurance and geography • Objectives • In cooperation with government agencies with responsibilities within vital societal functions Bill with Planning directive (Government) Military - civilian road map & Planning guidance (MSB and SAF) Capability development (All of society) Measurement of capabilities within sectors Measurement of national capabilities
  5. 5. National Risk Assessment • Focus on understanding risk • Risk matrix - Not the solution to find measures and not the base for the next step RM-Planning • Scenario analyses: to challenge the society and our civil preparedness system • The key for identifying measures are vulnerabilities and capability gaps
  6. 6. Risk category Scenario analysis Year Unintentional man made incidents Fire in a cruise ship 2012 Dam failure 2012 Disruption in GNSS 2013 CBRNE Diesel in the supply of drinking water 2012 Nuclear accident 2013 Pandemic flu 2013 Antibiotic-resistant bacteria 2015 African swine fever 2019 Oil spill at sea 2020 Antagonistic incidents Disruption to food supply 2012 School shooting 2012 Bomb attack 2013 Violent disturbances 2013 Cyberattack 2020 Natural hazards Heat-wave 2013 Solar storm 2014 Volcanic eruption in Iceland 2014 Mudslide 2014 Extreme precipitation 2016 Storm followed by a cold wave 2017 Forest fire 2018 Analyzed scenarios
  7. 7. Transboundary risks - Nordic cooperation • Nordic risk and capability analysis related to volcanic eruptions in 2014 • In 2019 a Nordic CBRNE gap analysis • four different scenarios, covering various CBRNE aspects. • The conclusion was that further development is needed, some within • rescEU (detection, decontamination and stockpiling) • nordic/national level (large gas accidents, expert reach back, training and exercise and civil-military cooperation).
  8. 8. Focus on vulnerabilities and capabilities Generic capability assessments Scenario based capability assessment Generic + Scenario based capability assessment
  9. 9. National Risk Assessment Scenario based Capability Assessment Risk and Vulnerability Assessments Stakeholder bottom up assessments Evaluations of real event and exercises Strategic Foresight National Risk And Capability Assessment Government & Stakeholders Distribution of financial founds Strategic Road Map & Planning guidance
  10. 10. National Risk and Capability Assessment • Strategic basis for further development • an overview of risks and threats • an overview of vulnerabilities and gaps in capability, • an overview of collected efforts made and current risk management plans, • suggested measures, in addition already planned measures
  11. 11. Intersectoral as well as on National areas of focus 7 sectors + Regional and local level Financial services Energy supply Information and communications Security HealthcareTransportsFood and water
  12. 12. Energy supply Foodstuffs Transport Health, medical and care services Financial services Information and communication Protection, safety and security Structural deficiencies Assured continuity of government and critical government services Seven priority areas Generic capabilities - Nato Baselines in Sweden Nato Baselines Resilient energy supplies Ability to deal effectively with the uncontrolled movement of people Resilient food and water resources Ability to deal with mass casualties Resilient transportation systems Resilient communications systems
  13. 13. Strategic Foresight • Working process is under development • Study possible long-term developments/trends in society • > 10 years • Example: Climate change, Demography, Urbanisation, Digitalisation, Technology, Geopolitics • Assess what capability is needed to meet challenges that may arise • Long term investments
  14. 14. Lessons learned • Capability assessments without reference to particular risk scenarios tend to be broad and overly optimistic • The scenario-based capability analysis is particularly useful for identifying gaps in how key actors handle disasters together • National risk and capability assessments must combine data from generic capability assessments, scenario analyses, and other sources (e.g. evaluations of exercises and real-life experience).
  15. 15. Key issues moving forward • Moving in tandem between crisis preparedness and civilian defense • Develop new models for engaging the private sector • Close Nordic cooperation • Develop the transatlantic link including the partnership with NATO
  16. 16. Thank you!

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