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The Economic Cost of Inactivity in
Europe
Vicky Pryce, CEBR
MOVE Congress
November 6,2015
Proportion of jobs in the EU-28 nations, by occupational
category, 1995-2014
Up by 43 million
Down by 7 million
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Less active occupations
More active occupations
Source: EU Labour Force Survey, Cebr analysis
How much activity is sufficient?
Source: WHO
The WHO recommends that adults aged 18 or over should undertake, either:
• 150 minutes per week of moderate-intensity aerobic physical activity (equivalent
to around 20 minutes per day); or
• 75 minutes per week of vigorous-intensity activity; or
• an equivalent combination of moderate and vigorous activity.
For children and adolescents aged 5-17, the guidelines are more demanding:
• At least 60 minutes per day of moderate-to-vigorous intensity aerobic
physicalactivity
The health benefits which activity delivers
Source: WHO (2006)
Condition Effect
Heart disease Reduced risk
Stroke Reduced risk
Overweight and obesity Reduced risk
Type II diabetes Reduced risk
Colon cancer Reduced risk
Breast cancer Reduced risk
Musculoskeletal health Improvement
Falls in older people Reduced risk
Psychological wellbeing Improvement
Depression Reduced risk
Leading risk factors for global mortality, 2004
Source: WHO (2009)
2.0
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.2
3.4
5.1
7.5
0 2 4 6 8
Indoor smoke from solid fuels
Childhood underweight
Alcohol use
Unsafe sex
High Cholesterol
Overweight and obesity
PHYSICAL INACTIVITY
High blood glucose
Tobacco use
High blood pressure
Millions of global deaths
Economic costs of inactivity
• Why economic costs?
• Direct costs of treatment and healthcare
• These are resources expended in the treatment of inactivity-related disease
• Indirect costs resulting from reduced length and quality of life
• This represents forgone output from premature morbidity and mortality
• Includes the indirect costs of inactivity-related mental health disorders
• Value of statistical life (VSL) not included
Proportion of insufficiently active adults, 2010
14%
19% 19%
22%
27% 28%
32%
24% 24%
29%
30%
34%
38%
42%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Poland Germany France EU-28 Spain Italy UK
Males Females
Source: WHO 2010, Cebr analysis. Data are age-standardised
Proportion of insufficiently active children, EU-28
Source: HBSC via Currie et al., (2008, 2012), Cebr analysis
77%
82%
86%
78%
83%
87%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
Age 11 Age 13 Age 15
2005-06
2009-10
Regularity of exercise or sport participation, 2013, EU-28
Source: Eurobarometer
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Regularly With some regularity Seldom Never
Retired
Homemakers
Unemployed
Manual workers
Self-employed
Other white collar workers
Managers
Physical activity improves wellbeing
Source: Global Corporate Challenge. Values represent average change in self-reported well-being
indices, for individuals who completed GCC programme (relative to same respondent’s scores prior to
GCC).
-11.9%
-8.0%
0.4%
6.1%
8.1%
9.2%
9.9%
13.9%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Stress at home
Stress at work
Work relationships
Organisation morale
Vigour
Productivity
Overall health
Sleep quality
Average impacts on self-reported wellbeing indicators following participation in Global Corporate Challenge (n=33,612)
Total annual costs of inactivity-related disorders in EU-28,
2012
Source: Lee et al., (2012), WHO, OECD, Eurostat, IDA, EUCAN, Cebr analysis
23.5 23.1
13.9
11.4
8.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Coronary heart
disease
Mood and anxiety
disorders
Type II diabetes Colorectal cancer Breast cancer
€billions
Total annual costs of inactivity-related disorders in focus
nations, 2012
Source: Lee et al., (2012), WHO, OECD, Eurostat, IDA, EUCAN, Cebr analysis
1.0 1.2 1.6 1.9 1.72.0
5.6
8.3
10.6
12.3 12.8
2.2
6.6
9.5
12.1
14.2 14.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Poland Spain France Italy United
Kingdom
Germany
€billions
Direct
Indirect
Total
Inactivity costs as a proportion of annual healthcare
expenditure, 2012
Source: Lee et al., (2012), WHO, OECD, Eurostat, IDA, EUCAN, Cebr analysis
4.0%
4.8%
6.2%
6.9%
8.3% 8.4% 8.9%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
France Germany EU-28 Spain United
Kingdom
Poland Italy
Economic cost savings from reducing inactivity in six
focus countries, 2012
Source: Lee et al., (2012), WHO, OECD, Eurostat, IDA, EUCAN, Cebr analysis
109
331
473
607
712 726
217
661
947
1,214
1,423 1,452
435
1,322
1,894
2,429
2,846 2,905
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Poland Spain France Italy United
Kingdom
Germany
€millions
5% 10% 20%

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MOVE Congress 2015: The Economic Cost of Physical Inactivity

  • 1. The Economic Cost of Inactivity in Europe Vicky Pryce, CEBR MOVE Congress November 6,2015
  • 2. Proportion of jobs in the EU-28 nations, by occupational category, 1995-2014 Up by 43 million Down by 7 million 25% 35% 45% 55% 65% 75% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Less active occupations More active occupations Source: EU Labour Force Survey, Cebr analysis
  • 3. How much activity is sufficient? Source: WHO The WHO recommends that adults aged 18 or over should undertake, either: • 150 minutes per week of moderate-intensity aerobic physical activity (equivalent to around 20 minutes per day); or • 75 minutes per week of vigorous-intensity activity; or • an equivalent combination of moderate and vigorous activity. For children and adolescents aged 5-17, the guidelines are more demanding: • At least 60 minutes per day of moderate-to-vigorous intensity aerobic physicalactivity
  • 4. The health benefits which activity delivers Source: WHO (2006) Condition Effect Heart disease Reduced risk Stroke Reduced risk Overweight and obesity Reduced risk Type II diabetes Reduced risk Colon cancer Reduced risk Breast cancer Reduced risk Musculoskeletal health Improvement Falls in older people Reduced risk Psychological wellbeing Improvement Depression Reduced risk
  • 5. Leading risk factors for global mortality, 2004 Source: WHO (2009) 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.2 3.4 5.1 7.5 0 2 4 6 8 Indoor smoke from solid fuels Childhood underweight Alcohol use Unsafe sex High Cholesterol Overweight and obesity PHYSICAL INACTIVITY High blood glucose Tobacco use High blood pressure Millions of global deaths
  • 6. Economic costs of inactivity • Why economic costs? • Direct costs of treatment and healthcare • These are resources expended in the treatment of inactivity-related disease • Indirect costs resulting from reduced length and quality of life • This represents forgone output from premature morbidity and mortality • Includes the indirect costs of inactivity-related mental health disorders • Value of statistical life (VSL) not included
  • 7. Proportion of insufficiently active adults, 2010 14% 19% 19% 22% 27% 28% 32% 24% 24% 29% 30% 34% 38% 42% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Poland Germany France EU-28 Spain Italy UK Males Females Source: WHO 2010, Cebr analysis. Data are age-standardised
  • 8. Proportion of insufficiently active children, EU-28 Source: HBSC via Currie et al., (2008, 2012), Cebr analysis 77% 82% 86% 78% 83% 87% 72% 74% 76% 78% 80% 82% 84% 86% 88% Age 11 Age 13 Age 15 2005-06 2009-10
  • 9. Regularity of exercise or sport participation, 2013, EU-28 Source: Eurobarometer 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Regularly With some regularity Seldom Never Retired Homemakers Unemployed Manual workers Self-employed Other white collar workers Managers
  • 10. Physical activity improves wellbeing Source: Global Corporate Challenge. Values represent average change in self-reported well-being indices, for individuals who completed GCC programme (relative to same respondent’s scores prior to GCC). -11.9% -8.0% 0.4% 6.1% 8.1% 9.2% 9.9% 13.9% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Stress at home Stress at work Work relationships Organisation morale Vigour Productivity Overall health Sleep quality Average impacts on self-reported wellbeing indicators following participation in Global Corporate Challenge (n=33,612)
  • 11. Total annual costs of inactivity-related disorders in EU-28, 2012 Source: Lee et al., (2012), WHO, OECD, Eurostat, IDA, EUCAN, Cebr analysis 23.5 23.1 13.9 11.4 8.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Coronary heart disease Mood and anxiety disorders Type II diabetes Colorectal cancer Breast cancer €billions
  • 12. Total annual costs of inactivity-related disorders in focus nations, 2012 Source: Lee et al., (2012), WHO, OECD, Eurostat, IDA, EUCAN, Cebr analysis 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.9 1.72.0 5.6 8.3 10.6 12.3 12.8 2.2 6.6 9.5 12.1 14.2 14.5 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Poland Spain France Italy United Kingdom Germany €billions Direct Indirect Total
  • 13. Inactivity costs as a proportion of annual healthcare expenditure, 2012 Source: Lee et al., (2012), WHO, OECD, Eurostat, IDA, EUCAN, Cebr analysis 4.0% 4.8% 6.2% 6.9% 8.3% 8.4% 8.9% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% France Germany EU-28 Spain United Kingdom Poland Italy
  • 14. Economic cost savings from reducing inactivity in six focus countries, 2012 Source: Lee et al., (2012), WHO, OECD, Eurostat, IDA, EUCAN, Cebr analysis 109 331 473 607 712 726 217 661 947 1,214 1,423 1,452 435 1,322 1,894 2,429 2,846 2,905 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Poland Spain France Italy United Kingdom Germany €millions 5% 10% 20%