Seminar on Tourism Marketing Trends, Challenges and Opportunities Vilnius, Lithuania, 27-28 February 2008
<ul><ul><li>How is marketing changing? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How are consumers changing? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>H...
Tourism Market Trends: The World in 2007 and Outlook for 2008 Seminar on Tourism Marketing Trends, Challenges and Opportun...
<ul><li>“ Activities of persons travelling to and staying in places outside their usual environment for not more than one ...
The millions traveling abroad
The millions travelling abroad… +6.5% a year 25 million 898 million
Where are they going ? Americas 142 million 15% Africa 44 million 5% Middle East  46 million 5% Asia / Pacific  185 millio...
Increased competition – emerging destinations  – Top destinations
What do they generate? International Tourism  Receipts, 2006  US$ 733 billion   US$ 2.4 billion a day
Where do they come from?
The importance of the domestic market Domestic overnights: 3.6 bn in 2005  (63%)  International overnights: 2.1 bn in 2005...
2007 above expectations
<ul><li>Objective:   monitoring short-term evolution of worldwide tourism </li></ul><ul><li>Frequency:  3 times a year  (J...
Arrivals grow from 800 to 900 million in two years <ul><li>2007: 898 million international tourist arrivals </li></ul><ul>...
52 million international arrivals more Europe  + 19 million  (38%) Africa  + 3 million (6%)   Middle East + 5 million  (11...
2007 growth rates by region
World, Growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Longest period of sustained growth for 25 years Source: International Moneta...
Advanced economies, GDP growth However, strength is not coming from advanced economies  Source: International Monetary Fun...
Emerging market and developing economies , GDP growth  Growth driven by emerging market and developing economies Source: I...
Europe: 480 mn, +4%  ▲ Turkey (+18%), Greece (+10%), Portugal (+10%), Italy (+7%), Switzerland (+7%), Croatia (+8%), Bosni...
▲ Japan (+14%), Macao (China) (+21%), China (+10%), Cambodia (+19%), Indonesia (+15%), Malaysia (+20%), Vietnam (+16%), In...
▲ USA (+10%), Chile (+12%), Argentina (+11%), Anguilla, Aruba, Bonaire, Cayman, Curaçao, Grenada, Guatemala, Honduras, Nic...
▲ Morocco (+14%), Kenya (+13%), South Africa (+8%), Ghana, Mauritius, Mozambique, Seychelles, Egypt (+20%), Syria (+31%), ...
Who is spending the most? 51%
Outbound Tourism International Tourism Expenditure, % change over same period of the previous year (local currencies, curr...
Forecast 2008 International Tourism 6-10 % 13 % Middle East 6-8 % 8 % Africa 1-3 % 5 % Americas 8-10 % 10 % Asia and the P...
UNWTO Tourism 2020 Vision
UNWTO  Tourism 2020 Vision Series of 7 Reports: - Global Forecast and Profiles of Market Segments - 6 regional volumes
International Tourist Arrivals, 1950-2020 Current situation and forecasts UNWTO  Tourism 2020 Vision
1995 2010 2020 1995-2020 Base Year Forecasts Average annual growth rate (%) Africa Americas East Asia and the Pacific Euro...
World’s Top Inbound Countries 2020…. <ul><li>1 China </li></ul><ul><li>2 France </li></ul><ul><li>3 United States </li></u...
1.0 bn 898 mn 1.6 bn Actual trend vs.  Tourism 2020 Vision  forecast World 536 mn
527 mn 480 mn 717 mn Actual trend vs.  Tourism 2020 Vision  forecast Europe 311 mn
Lithuania in the global market
International Tourism in the Baltic States <ul><li>International Tourist Arrivals 2005 </li></ul><ul><li>5.7   million: + ...
International Tourism in the Baltic States  2006
Baltic destinations: above average growth Lithuania  11.6%/year Estonia  12.5%/year Latvia  10%/year Central&Eastern Europ...
International Tourism in the Baltic States  1995-2006  +235% +266% +185%
International Tourism in the Baltic States  1995-2005
International Tourism in selected destinations , 2007 VF: Visitors at frontiers; TCE: Tourist arrivals at all accommodatio...
10 Global Market Trends
Adventure Travel World Summit Whistler, Canada – 4 October 2007 10 Global Market Travel Trends                            ...
Economy  (1) <ul><li>GDP growth </li></ul><ul><li>exchange rates fluctuations </li></ul><ul><li>high oil prices </li></ul>...
<ul><li>aging population (senior = wealth/well being/active) </li></ul><ul><li>change in composition of families (singles/...
Increase concern on safety and security  (3) <ul><ul><li>terrorism </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>health scares </li></ul></ul...
<ul><li>product development </li></ul><ul><li>marketing </li></ul><ul><li>sales </li></ul><ul><li>destination  </li></ul><...
<ul><li>India, China and Russia </li></ul><ul><li>strong potential  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>limited part of the pop. traveli...
… vs. traditional markets <ul><li>slower growth </li></ul><ul><li>growth due to: </li></ul><ul><li>Increased participation...
Transport (7) <ul><li>liberalization air travel </li></ul><ul><li>LCC expansion </li></ul><ul><li>decreased cost of air tr...
<ul><li>socio-environmental conscience vs. need to travel  </li></ul><ul><li>the 3 E’s: entertainment, experience and educ...
<ul><li>all mighty technology: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ICT in all parts of the process </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>the power ...
<ul><li>from producers to consumers (from a sellers to a buyers market)  </li></ul><ul><li>mature and experienced that kno...
www.unwto.org
 
email:scarvao@unwto.org Thank you very much for your attention! World Tourism Organization www.UNWTO.org
Highlights 2007 <ul><li>2007: continuation of sustained growth rate of past years </li></ul><ul><li>No major negative fact...
Europe <ul><li>Highlights 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Continuation of the economic pick-up of 2006 </li></ul><ul><li>German out...
Asia and the Pacific <ul><li>Highlights 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Continuation of economic strength (over 7% since 2004) </li...
Americas <ul><li>Highlights 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>US inbound market finally rebounds </li></ul><ul><li>Central and South ...
Africa and the Middle East <ul><li>Highlights 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Oil money stimulates tourism investment and demand, i...
Outlook 2008 <ul><li>Difficult to assess economic situation at this moment </li></ul><ul><li>Economic growth prospects sti...
Where were we right? <ul><li>overall world forecast, both direction and volume (aag +4.1%)  </li></ul><ul><li>strong growt...
Where have we missed …? <ul><li>underestimation of the potential of the Middle East </li></ul><ul><li>overestimation of th...
Europe Asia and the Pacific Americas Africa Middle East Market Share (%) - 1995 Market Share (%) - 2006 International Tour...
Actual trend vs.  Tourism 2020 Vision  forecast World’s Top destinations 2020
Actual trend vs.  Tourism 2020 Vision  forecast Rising stars (destinations > 5 mn)
Actual trend vs.  Tourism 2020 Vision  forecast Outbound tourism (2006, mn) 7 25 18 0 -10 -6 23 24 diff. 24 142 167 474 84...
Actual trend vs.  Tourism 2020 Vision  forecast Outbound tourism (2006, mn) -11 18 diff. 163 669 actual 174 651 proj.
Tourism 2020 Vision : Conclusions <ul><li>strong resilience and capacity of recovery against adverse conditions (economic ...
“ this of the stock market is very bad for the neck!”
Participation in Outbound Tourism Arrivals generated per 100 population per year
International tourism  volume and receipts growth in receipts close to growth in arrivals Asian financial and economic cri...
10 Global Market Travel Trends   <ul><li>Economy </li></ul><ul><li>Demographic Changes </li></ul><ul><li>Increased concern...
And the winner is… 50%  47%
International tourism  Emerging destinations tend to grow faster and did so in 2007
The heartbeat of international tourism Source: World Tourism Organization
International Tourist Arrivals by Month July and August exceeded 100 mn
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  • 3
  • 9% 1st quarter and 4% in the 2nd 0% in April, 7% in May, 6% in June and 5% in July
  • 9% 1st quarter and 4% in the 2nd 0% in April, 7% in May, 6% in June and 5% in July
  • Seminar on Tourism Marketing Trends, Challenges and Opportunities

    1. 1. Seminar on Tourism Marketing Trends, Challenges and Opportunities Vilnius, Lithuania, 27-28 February 2008
    2. 2. <ul><ul><li>How is marketing changing? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How are consumers changing? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How is tourism marketing changing? </li></ul></ul>
    3. 3. Tourism Market Trends: The World in 2007 and Outlook for 2008 Seminar on Tourism Marketing Trends, Challenges and Opportunities Vilnius, Lithuania, 27-28 February 2008 Sandra Carvão Deputy Chief of Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services, UNWTO [email_address]
    4. 4. <ul><li>“ Activities of persons travelling to and staying in places outside their usual environment for not more than one consecutive year for leisure, business and other purposes” </li></ul><ul><li>Forms and indicators: </li></ul><ul><li>visitors: same-day visitors and tourists </li></ul><ul><li>international and domestic </li></ul><ul><li>all purposes except paid work in the destination </li></ul>Tourism: some concepts
    5. 5. The millions traveling abroad
    6. 6. The millions travelling abroad… +6.5% a year 25 million 898 million
    7. 7. Where are they going ? Americas 142 million 15% Africa 44 million 5% Middle East 46 million 5% Asia / Pacific 185 million 21% Europe 480 million 54%
    8. 8. Increased competition – emerging destinations – Top destinations
    9. 9. What do they generate? International Tourism Receipts, 2006 US$ 733 billion US$ 2.4 billion a day
    10. 10. Where do they come from?
    11. 11. The importance of the domestic market Domestic overnights: 3.6 bn in 2005 (63%) International overnights: 2.1 bn in 2005 (37%)
    12. 12. 2007 above expectations
    13. 13. <ul><li>Objective: monitoring short-term evolution of worldwide tourism </li></ul><ul><li>Frequency: 3 times a year (January, June, October) </li></ul><ul><li>Permanent elements: </li></ul><ul><li>Short term tourism data </li></ul><ul><li>In focus </li></ul><ul><li>UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts </li></ul><ul><li>Economic data relevant for tourism </li></ul>UNWTO World Tourism Barometer
    14. 14. Arrivals grow from 800 to 900 million in two years <ul><li>2007: 898 million international tourist arrivals </li></ul><ul><li>+ 6% or 52 million more as compared to 2006 </li></ul>
    15. 15. 52 million international arrivals more Europe + 19 million (38%) Africa + 3 million (6%) Middle East + 5 million (11%) Americas + 6 million (12%) Asia and the Pacific + 17 million (33%)
    16. 16. 2007 growth rates by region
    17. 17. World, Growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Longest period of sustained growth for 25 years Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)
    18. 18. Advanced economies, GDP growth However, strength is not coming from advanced economies Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)
    19. 19. Emerging market and developing economies , GDP growth Growth driven by emerging market and developing economies Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)
    20. 20. Europe: 480 mn, +4% ▲ Turkey (+18%), Greece (+10%), Portugal (+10%), Italy (+7%), Switzerland (+7%), Croatia (+8%), Bosnia Hz, Serbia, Montenegro, TFYROM, Slovenia, Israel, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania , Romania
    21. 21. ▲ Japan (+14%), Macao (China) (+21%), China (+10%), Cambodia (+19%), Indonesia (+15%), Malaysia (+20%), Vietnam (+16%), India (+13%), Maldives (+12%), Laos, Nepal, Bhutan, Samoa Asia and the Pacific: 185 mn, +10%
    22. 22. ▲ USA (+10%), Chile (+12%), Argentina (+11%), Anguilla, Aruba, Bonaire, Cayman, Curaçao, Grenada, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Panama, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Venezuela Americas: 142 mn, +5%
    23. 23. ▲ Morocco (+14%), Kenya (+13%), South Africa (+8%), Ghana, Mauritius, Mozambique, Seychelles, Egypt (+20%), Syria (+31%), Palestine Africa: 44 mn, +8% ; Middle East: 46 mn, +13%
    24. 24. Who is spending the most? 51%
    25. 25. Outbound Tourism International Tourism Expenditure, % change over same period of the previous year (local currencies, current prices) Of the first 50 spenders, 44 have data available for at least the first half of 2007, of which 30 (two thirds) have done better than in 2006
    26. 26. Forecast 2008 International Tourism 6-10 % 13 % Middle East 6-8 % 8 % Africa 1-3 % 5 % Americas 8-10 % 10 % Asia and the Pacific 3-4 % 4 % Europe 3-4 % 6 % World Forecast 2008 2007*
    27. 27. UNWTO Tourism 2020 Vision
    28. 28. UNWTO Tourism 2020 Vision Series of 7 Reports: - Global Forecast and Profiles of Market Segments - 6 regional volumes
    29. 29. International Tourist Arrivals, 1950-2020 Current situation and forecasts UNWTO Tourism 2020 Vision
    30. 30. 1995 2010 2020 1995-2020 Base Year Forecasts Average annual growth rate (%) Africa Americas East Asia and the Pacific Europe Middle East South Asia World 20 110 81 336 14 4 565 47 190 195 527 36 11 1006 77 282 397 717 69 19 1561 5.5 3.8 6.5 3.1 6.7 6.2 4.1 Forecasts by Receiving Region International Tourist Arrivals, 1995-2020 (million) 1995 2020 Market share (%) 3.6 19.3 14.4 59.8 2.2 0.7 100 5.0 18.1 25.4 45.9 4.4 1.2 100
    31. 31. World’s Top Inbound Countries 2020…. <ul><li>1 China </li></ul><ul><li>2 France </li></ul><ul><li>3 United States </li></ul><ul><li>4 Spain </li></ul><ul><li>5 HK (China) </li></ul><ul><li>UK </li></ul><ul><li>Italy </li></ul><ul><li>8 Mexico </li></ul><ul><li>9 Russian Fed. </li></ul><ul><li>10 Czech Rep. </li></ul>130 106 102 74 57 54 52 49 48 44 7.8 2.3 3.5 2.6 7.1 2.1 3.4 3.6 6.8 4.0 Country Total arrivals (million) Growth rate (%)
    32. 32. 1.0 bn 898 mn 1.6 bn Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast World 536 mn
    33. 33. 527 mn 480 mn 717 mn Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Europe 311 mn
    34. 34. Lithuania in the global market
    35. 35. International Tourism in the Baltic States <ul><li>International Tourist Arrivals 2005 </li></ul><ul><li>5.7 million: + 12% vs. +4% in Central & Eastern Europe </li></ul><ul><li>6 % market share in the subregion </li></ul><ul><li>annual average growth 1995-2006: 11% vs 4% in the subregion </li></ul><ul><li>International Tourism Receipts 2005 </li></ul><ul><li>€ 2 billion </li></ul><ul><li>7 % market share in the subregion </li></ul><ul><li>R eceipts p er arrival : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Estonia: € 6 10 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Latvia: € 173 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lithuania: € 244 </li></ul></ul>
    36. 36. International Tourism in the Baltic States 2006
    37. 37. Baltic destinations: above average growth Lithuania 11.6%/year Estonia 12.5%/year Latvia 10%/year Central&Eastern Europe: 3.9%/year
    38. 38. International Tourism in the Baltic States 1995-2006 +235% +266% +185%
    39. 39. International Tourism in the Baltic States 1995-2005
    40. 40. International Tourism in selected destinations , 2007 VF: Visitors at frontiers; TCE: Tourist arrivals at all accommodation units; NHS: Nights in hotel and similar establishment; NCE: Nights in all accommodation units.
    41. 41. 10 Global Market Trends
    42. 42. Adventure Travel World Summit Whistler, Canada – 4 October 2007 10 Global Market Travel Trends                                                                                                     
    43. 43. Economy (1) <ul><li>GDP growth </li></ul><ul><li>exchange rates fluctuations </li></ul><ul><li>high oil prices </li></ul><ul><li>interest rates </li></ul><ul><li>emerging market driving growth </li></ul>
    44. 44. <ul><li>aging population (senior = wealth/well being/active) </li></ul><ul><li>change in composition of families (singles/one parent/ grandparents, etc) </li></ul><ul><li>immigration/emigration (increased travel for VFR facilitated by lower transport costs) </li></ul>Demographic Changes (2)
    45. 45. Increase concern on safety and security (3) <ul><ul><li>terrorism </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>health scares </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>natural disasters </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>travel advisories </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>visa regulations vs. easier border control </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>tourism resilience </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>crisis management (sos.travel) </li></ul></ul>
    46. 46. <ul><li>product development </li></ul><ul><li>marketing </li></ul><ul><li>sales </li></ul><ul><li>destination </li></ul><ul><li>management </li></ul><ul><li>stakeholders </li></ul><ul><li>outside the industry </li></ul>Public/private partnerships (4)
    47. 47. <ul><li>India, China and Russia </li></ul><ul><li>strong potential </li></ul><ul><ul><li>limited part of the pop. traveling </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>growing middle class </li></ul></ul><ul><li>strong economic growth </li></ul><ul><li>market diversification </li></ul>Emerging source markets (5)
    48. 48. … vs. traditional markets <ul><li>slower growth </li></ul><ul><li>growth due to: </li></ul><ul><li>Increased participation of the pop > decrease cost </li></ul><ul><li>Increased nr. of trips, but shorter stays </li></ul>1990 2005 2020 ?
    49. 49. Transport (7) <ul><li>liberalization air travel </li></ul><ul><li>LCC expansion </li></ul><ul><li>decreased cost of air travel </li></ul><ul><li>increase long haul air capacity </li></ul><ul><li>long-haul forecast to grow faster (5.4% vs. 3.8%) </li></ul><ul><li>waiting for the A380 </li></ul><ul><li>pressure due to climate change </li></ul>
    50. 50. <ul><li>socio-environmental conscience vs. need to travel </li></ul><ul><li>the 3 E’s: entertainment, experience and education </li></ul><ul><li>voluntourism </li></ul><ul><li>climate change : impact on destinations </li></ul><ul><li>poverty alleviation </li></ul>Increase conscience on sustainable tourism (8)
    51. 51. <ul><li>all mighty technology: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ICT in all parts of the process </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>the power to the consumer / Web 2.0 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>flexibility </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>increased competition </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>new players in the market: access from local providers </li></ul></ul>Continued incorporation of new technologies (9)
    52. 52. <ul><li>from producers to consumers (from a sellers to a buyers market) </li></ul><ul><li>mature and experienced that know what they want and what they can get </li></ul><ul><li>looking for flexibility </li></ul><ul><li>more fickle and less loyal </li></ul>More fickle and less loyal customer (10)
    53. 53. www.unwto.org
    54. 55. email:scarvao@unwto.org Thank you very much for your attention! World Tourism Organization www.UNWTO.org
    55. 56. Highlights 2007 <ul><li>2007: continuation of sustained growth rate of past years </li></ul><ul><li>No major negative factors or disruptions / No large events </li></ul><ul><li>Expanded air capacity coupled with high load factors </li></ul><ul><li>Hotel occupation and RevPAR up </li></ul><ul><li>Results confirm resilience regarding external factors such as turbulence in financial markets, increasing interest rates, tighter credit conditions, rising fuel prices and security and health issues </li></ul><ul><li>Tourism growth supported by strong world economy: since 2004 in the longest period of sustained growth for more than two decades </li></ul><ul><li>Economic and tourism growth driven by emerging market and developing countries </li></ul><ul><li>Climate change has definitively entered the agenda </li></ul>
    56. 57. Europe <ul><li>Highlights 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Continuation of the economic pick-up of 2006 </li></ul><ul><li>German outbound market stronger than in previous years </li></ul><ul><li>Wet summer in the North / strong results for Mediterranean destinations </li></ul><ul><li>Strong euro </li></ul><ul><li>Romania and Bulgaria entered EU </li></ul><ul><li>LCC keep expanding, even to and from mature destinations </li></ul><ul><li>UK ‘annus horribilis’ </li></ul><ul><li>Prospects 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Extension of Schengen area with 9 of the new EU members and Switzerland </li></ul><ul><li>Extension of euro to 15 countries </li></ul><ul><li>Early snow for ski resorts </li></ul><ul><li>European football championship in Austria and Switzerland / Zaragoza World Expo </li></ul><ul><li>Open sky policy with US / Further airline concentration </li></ul>
    57. 58. Asia and the Pacific <ul><li>Highlights 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Continuation of economic strength (over 7% since 2004) </li></ul><ul><li>Favourable exchange rates </li></ul><ul><li>Further LCC expansion </li></ul><ul><li>No overall impact of political tension in Thailand, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Pakistan </li></ul><ul><li>Japan is taking off as a destination </li></ul><ul><li>Mekong continues to grow quite above average </li></ul><ul><li>Prospects 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>China will showcase itself to the world in the Beijing Olympics </li></ul><ul><li>Continued economic dynamism not expected to be affected seriously by an eventual slowdown in the developed world </li></ul><ul><li>Avian flu still a concern, but not hitting the headlines up to the moment </li></ul>
    58. 59. Americas <ul><li>Highlights 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>US inbound market finally rebounds </li></ul><ul><li>Central and South American destinations share in emerging market upturn </li></ul><ul><li>Increased regional cooperation and integration in Central and South America </li></ul><ul><li>Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative (WHTI) creates uncertainty and impacts Caribbean results </li></ul><ul><li>Lower dollar (1 euro ≈1.5 USD,1 CAD ≈ 1 USD,1 GBP ≈ 2 USD) stimulates inbound and slows outbound to non-dollar areas, ie above all Canada affected by unfavourable exchange rate </li></ul><ul><li>US outbound still strong in spite of credit crunch </li></ul><ul><li>Prospects 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Presidential elections will keep US occupied </li></ul><ul><li>Uncertainty about US economy </li></ul><ul><li>Dollar still expected to weaken further </li></ul><ul><li>WHTI continues to influence travel </li></ul>
    59. 60. Africa and the Middle East <ul><li>Highlights 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Oil money stimulates tourism investment and demand, in particular in Gulf countries </li></ul><ul><li>High priority given to tourism in many MENA destinations </li></ul><ul><li>This time Africa is also profiting from strong world economy through commodity prices and investment </li></ul><ul><li>Mediterranean destinations are successfully tapping traditional and emerging European source markets as well as the Middle East market </li></ul><ul><li>Prospects 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Ghana hosts African Cup of Nations in January </li></ul><ul><li>South Africa is already getting attention from the run up to the FIFA World Cup </li></ul><ul><li>Kenya has been doing very well in past years, but might face temporary setback </li></ul><ul><li>Air liberalisation (i.e. Morocco, Egypt) will further stimulate tourism </li></ul><ul><li>Sarkozy effect in Egypt and Jordan? </li></ul>
    60. 61. Outlook 2008 <ul><li>Difficult to assess economic situation at this moment </li></ul><ul><li>Economic growth prospects still decent (2008 worldwide +4.1%) </li></ul><ul><li>On the downside: volatile financial markets, aftermath of the credit crunch, high oil prices, inflationary pressures, agflation (rise of food prices), slowing growth particularly in the USA </li></ul><ul><li>Confidence overall still high, but has started to weaken </li></ul><ul><li>A new generation of aircraft is coming into service: first A380 last October and 787 is expected next year, 2007 saw record number of orders for new aircraft at both Airbus and Boeing with Asia and Middle East among major buyers </li></ul><ul><li>Climate change in focus (carbon offsetting, technological innovation, taxes, ‘eco’ marketing, etc.) </li></ul><ul><li>Caution, but no panic </li></ul>
    61. 62. Where were we right? <ul><li>overall world forecast, both direction and volume (aag +4.1%) </li></ul><ul><li>strong growth for emerging destinations and source markets </li></ul><ul><li>strong growth for Asia and the Pacific and for Africa </li></ul><ul><li>more moderate growth for Europe </li></ul><ul><li>increase of share of Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East and Africa, and decrease of Europe and the Americas </li></ul><ul><li>emergence of China as a major inbound and outbound market </li></ul><ul><li>demography: aging population, increased VFR, changing households </li></ul><ul><li>change from ‘service’ to ‘experience’ </li></ul>
    62. 63. Where have we missed …? <ul><li>underestimation of the potential of the Middle East </li></ul><ul><li>overestimation of the growth of North America </li></ul><ul><li>various country estimates </li></ul><ul><li>overestimation of interregional growth </li></ul><ul><li>underestimation of the impact of new technologies, in particular of the internet, in terms of: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>information, promotion and marketing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>distribution, sales, pricing, management and service </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>more transparency and power to consumer </li></ul></ul><ul><li>explosion of low cost airlines in Europe, Asia and the Middle East </li></ul><ul><li>unexpected events not catered for </li></ul><ul><li>border facilitation (+/-) </li></ul><ul><li>socio-environmental awareness (+/-) </li></ul>
    63. 64. Europe Asia and the Pacific Americas Africa Middle East Market Share (%) - 1995 Market Share (%) - 2006 International Tourist Arrivals by region of destination
    64. 65. Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast World’s Top destinations 2020
    65. 66. Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Rising stars (destinations > 5 mn)
    66. 67. Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Outbound tourism (2006, mn) 7 25 18 0 -10 -6 23 24 diff. 24 142 167 474 846 actual 25 152 172 451 821 proj.
    67. 68. Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast Outbound tourism (2006, mn) -11 18 diff. 163 669 actual 174 651 proj.
    68. 69. Tourism 2020 Vision : Conclusions <ul><li>strong resilience and capacity of recovery against adverse conditions (economic downturns, terrorism, health threats, natural disasters, etc.) </li></ul><ul><li>strong underlying demand, with still huge potential for growth: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>both from increase of participation and increased frequency: more often but shorter stays </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>from current travellers but above all from new emerging middle classes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>sizable populations in developing countries currently still only take part in international tourism very limitedly </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>many emerging economies show rapid economic growth resulting in increasing disposable incomes, a relative big share of this increase will be spent on tourism (domestic as well as international) </li></ul></ul>
    69. 70. “ this of the stock market is very bad for the neck!”
    70. 71. Participation in Outbound Tourism Arrivals generated per 100 population per year
    71. 72. International tourism volume and receipts growth in receipts close to growth in arrivals Asian financial and economic crisis: expenditure grew slower 11S, SARS, economic downturn: receipts more affected ?
    72. 73. 10 Global Market Travel Trends <ul><li>Economy </li></ul><ul><li>Demographic Changes </li></ul><ul><li>Increased concern for safety and security </li></ul><ul><li>Increased public/private partnerships </li></ul><ul><li>Emerging source markets </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing competition: new destinations </li></ul><ul><li>Transport </li></ul><ul><li>Increase conscience regarding sustainable development </li></ul><ul><li>Continued incorporation of new technologies </li></ul><ul><li>More fickle and less loyal customer </li></ul>
    73. 74. And the winner is… 50% 47%
    74. 75. International tourism Emerging destinations tend to grow faster and did so in 2007
    75. 76. The heartbeat of international tourism Source: World Tourism Organization
    76. 77. International Tourist Arrivals by Month July and August exceeded 100 mn

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