Which world and whichEuropean businesses in2020?     Johan Peter Paludan
The Copenhagen Institute forFutures Studies• Founded by Thorkil  Kristensen in 1970• Private, non-profit  organisation• Me...
Chance favours only the preparedmind.           Louis Pasteur
Ways into the future-   Trends – short term (fashion, bussiness)-   Prognoses (ex. Economic growth, demographics)-   Creat...
15 Megatrends1. Knowledge2. New technology3. Acceleration4. Hypercomplexity5. Globalisation6. Commercialisation7. Affluenc...
LOGICS
Logics, so far•   Hunter/gatherer•   Agricultural•   Industrial•   ?
The four value added logics                        Emotions & stories                       DreamSociety logicStandardisat...
INDUSTRY LOGIC• Economies of scale• Massproduction ofidentical products• To produce and toconsume•Automation•Outsourcing•I...
DREAM SOCIETY LOGIC From function toemotions•The immaterial side of aproduct more importantthan the material• Branding and...
Dream Society – thetheory• Driving forces:  - the accelerating rate of change: we  are already entering the Dream Society ...
Evolution of consumption18001600           Totally superfluous1400           Luxury1200       Important           Basic co...
100 ml 43Euro
From Dung to Coffee Brew With No Aftertaste
The six new marketprofiles•   The market for adventure•   The market for love and belonging•   The care market•   The who-...
 Future market segments and pastmarket categories                      Love and friendship                                ...
Stories• To send signals about the good life• The great stories aren’t what they used  to be, and yet….• What is abundant ...
Scarce resources in the DreamSociety ARE NOT :              BUT : •   Information        •   Attention •   Products       ...
Create value!What is the meaningOf what you do?                       Meaning                 Solution          ProductTec...
CREATIVE MANLOGIC• From experience toidentification• Creativity andinnovation in work andconsumption• The prosumer• Indivi...
Anarchism + Economy =ANARCONOMY      Download FREE report from IFF:       www.iff.dk/dk/anarconomy.asp
Anarconomy - basics• Networksociety• Open source• Share knowledge without losing it• Free• Copyright versus unique  soluti...
3D printers
Contour Crafting – printa house
From centrallised                                     Photovoltaic facade  energy systems            Trees  to decentralis...
tio d                   tri lise                            nA wildcard?                dis ntra                      bu  ...
Driving forces towards     anarconomyTECHNOLOGY               KNOWLEDGE              PEOPLE                  DECENTRALISA-...
Anarconomy vs. Commercialeconomy•   Free copyleft              •   Paid for, copyright•   Based on volunteers        •   B...
Digtialisation• Everything that  can be  digitalised, will  be digitalised• The price of all  that is  digitalised  approa...
Knowledge society logic• Develop, transmit, use and sell knowledge• Bussiness service: knowledge on the  interplay between...
- and so what?• So: know thy logic!
Value creation logics                          Emotional                    DreamSociety logicStandardisation             ...
Value creation logics                               Leadership                        Emotional Management DreamSociety lo...
Value creation logics: Motivation                        Emotional     ‘Hooked’                   DreamSociety logic Excit...
Value creation logics: Marketing                        Emotional     ‘Seduction’  Data             DreamSociety logic Pus...
Value creation logics: Innovation                        Emotional                   DreamSociety logic                   ...
The market situation forNordic companies 2020• Growth rates  - moderate• Barriers to growth  - humans• Global competition ...
ThankyouStay curious Read on:www.cifs.dk
Conference_20130305_Johan Peter Paludan
Conference_20130305_Johan Peter Paludan
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Conference_20130305_Johan Peter Paludan

  1. 1. Which world and whichEuropean businesses in2020? Johan Peter Paludan
  2. 2. The Copenhagen Institute forFutures Studies• Founded by Thorkil Kristensen in 1970• Private, non-profit organisation• Memberbased – members i DK,S, N• Crossdisciplinarian think tank• Staff 25
  3. 3. Chance favours only the preparedmind. Louis Pasteur
  4. 4. Ways into the future- Trends – short term (fashion, bussiness)- Prognoses (ex. Economic growth, demographics)- Creativity (out of the box thinking, transdisciplinarian)- Megatrends (globalisation)- Scenarios (environmental devl.)- Paradigms/Logics- Back Casting (point of departure: a preferred future)- Wild Cards (Mohammed-drawings)
  5. 5. 15 Megatrends1. Knowledge2. New technology3. Acceleration4. Hypercomplexity5. Globalisation6. Commercialisation7. Affluence8. Democratisation9. Polarisation10.Immaterialisation11.Individualisation12.Networks13.Health14.Environment15.Ageing
  6. 6. LOGICS
  7. 7. Logics, so far• Hunter/gatherer• Agricultural• Industrial• ?
  8. 8. The four value added logics Emotions & stories DreamSociety logicStandardisation DiversityAutomation TayloredSpecialisation DiyMaintenance Interactive Industrial Creative Man society logic and Anarchonomy logic Knowledge society logic Rational R&D
  9. 9. INDUSTRY LOGIC• Economies of scale• Massproduction ofidentical products• To produce and toconsume•Automation•Outsourcing•In services too!
  10. 10. DREAM SOCIETY LOGIC From function toemotions•The immaterial side of aproduct more importantthan the material• Branding and brandloyalty• ’Superfluous’
  11. 11. Dream Society – thetheory• Driving forces: - the accelerating rate of change: we are already entering the Dream Society - the immaterialisation of demand - automation of whatever can be automated - the revolt against the tyranny of reason
  12. 12. Evolution of consumption18001600 Totally superfluous1400 Luxury1200 Important Basic consumption1000 Necessities 800 600 400 200 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  13. 13. 100 ml 43Euro
  14. 14. From Dung to Coffee Brew With No Aftertaste
  15. 15. The six new marketprofiles• The market for adventure• The market for love and belonging• The care market• The who-am-I market• The market for peace of mind• The market for convictions
  16. 16.  Future market segments and pastmarket categories Love and friendship Peace of mind Conviction Adventure Identity Food Care Housing Transport Energy Finance ? Electronics
  17. 17. Stories• To send signals about the good life• The great stories aren’t what they used to be, and yet….• What is abundant is ’cheap’ - we go for the scarce elements
  18. 18. Scarce resources in the DreamSociety ARE NOT : BUT : • Information • Attention • Products • Care • Channels • Genuine interest • Opportunities • Time • Satisfaction • Trust • Good Stories • Meaning
  19. 19. Create value!What is the meaningOf what you do? Meaning Solution ProductTechnology
  20. 20. CREATIVE MANLOGIC• From experience toidentification• Creativity andinnovation in work andconsumption• The prosumer• Individualisedmassproduction
  21. 21. Anarchism + Economy =ANARCONOMY Download FREE report from IFF: www.iff.dk/dk/anarconomy.asp
  22. 22. Anarconomy - basics• Networksociety• Open source• Share knowledge without losing it• Free• Copyright versus unique solutions/experiences• The consumer takes over the means of production
  23. 23. 3D printers
  24. 24. Contour Crafting – printa house
  25. 25. From centrallised Photovoltaic facade energy systems Trees to decentralised Greenery air/watercleaning production Moss Thrash = food Intelligent surface Furniture recycleable
  26. 26. tio d tri lise nA wildcard? dis ntra bu ce De DecentralisatioDecentraliseddevelopment n: everything is in the perifery De prod ce ntr uctio ali n se d
  27. 27. Driving forces towards anarconomyTECHNOLOGY KNOWLEDGE PEOPLE DECENTRALISA- TIONUbiquitous IT and Transparency Surplus and a will to Death of Distanceinternet shareDismanteling of Free content and Easy networking Decentralisedtechnology knowledge (copyleft) (social sites) markets – P2PmonopoliesBasically free copying Knowledge easy to Social capital more Decentralisedof knowledge find (search important than organisation –products functions) material capital networks
  28. 28. Anarconomy vs. Commercialeconomy• Free copyleft • Paid for, copyright• Based on volunteers • Based on salaried labour• Produced/distributed • Produced/distributed centrally decentralised • Updated now and then• Continously updated • The producer is responsible• No one is responsible. • Good at streamlining• Not good at streamlining Challenges and supplements each other
  29. 29. Digtialisation• Everything that can be digitalised, will be digitalised• The price of all that is digitalised approaches 0.• New business models needed
  30. 30. Knowledge society logic• Develop, transmit, use and sell knowledge• Bussiness service: knowledge on the interplay between technology and customers• Knowledge embedded in products and systems• Develop new knowledge through research• Education in focus
  31. 31. - and so what?• So: know thy logic!
  32. 32. Value creation logics Emotional DreamSociety logicStandardisation DiversityAutomatisation Man-madeSpecialisation Diy Involvement Industrial Creative Man society- Logic and logic Anarchonomy Knowledge society logic Rational
  33. 33. Value creation logics Leadership Emotional Management DreamSociety logic Charisma ScientificStandardisation DiversityAutomatisation Man-madeSpecialisation Diy Involvement Industrial Creative Man society- Logic and logic Anarchonomy Empowerment Facilitate Servant leader Knowledge society logic Dual: Rational purse or
  34. 34. Value creation logics: Motivation Emotional ‘Hooked’ DreamSociety logic Excited 9-17Standardisation DiversityAutomatisation Man-madeSpecialisation Diy Involvement Industrial Creative Man society- Logic and logic Anarchonomy Empowerment Knowledge society logic ‘Going Rational places’
  35. 35. Value creation logics: Marketing Emotional ‘Seduction’ Data DreamSociety logic Push PushStandardisation DiversityAutomatisation Man-madeSpecialisation Diy Involvement Industrial Creative Man society- Logic and logic Anarchonomy Interactive Data pull Knowledge society logic Informatio Rational n
  36. 36. Value creation logics: Innovation Emotional DreamSociety logic Storybased ClosedStandardisation DiversityAutomatisation Man-madeSpecialisation Diy Involvement Industrial Creative Man society- Logic and logic Anarchonomy Open User driven Knowledge society logic Knowledg Rational e
  37. 37. The market situation forNordic companies 2020• Growth rates - moderate• Barriers to growth - humans• Global competition - polarisation: cheap labour vs. Innovation/automation• Future markets - realistic: the usual; - hopefully: BRIC and beyond• Regulation - the more automated, the better
  38. 38. ThankyouStay curious Read on:www.cifs.dk

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