Økonomisk Perspektiv, september 2012 (DK)

302 views

Published on

The Economic Outlook is an internationally respected report on the state of the global economies with an extra focus on the Nordic markets, as well as the Baltic, Polish, Russian and key emerging markets plus the global oil and commodity markets. It is published twice a year by the renowned team of analysts and economists at Nordea Markets and supplemented with an additional two global and Nordic updates. It is published in English as well as the four Nordic languages.

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
302
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
2
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Økonomisk Perspektiv, september 2012 (DK)

  1. 1. ■ Indhold ØKONOMISK PERSPEKTIV SEPTEMBER 2012 I lavt gear Dansk økonomi i vækstdvale ■ Lav vækst og stor usikkerhed præger dansk økonomi, som fort- sat hænger fast i dødvandet. Økonomien vil dog gradvist finde til- bage på vækstsporet trukket af forbrug og investeringer. Skrøbeligt globalt opsving ■ Verdensøkonomien er fortsat i fremgang, men tempoet er lavt, og vejen frem er mudret. Euroområdet er igen på vej ind i reces- sion, mens USA og resten af verden hen over sommeren har op- OVERBLIK 04 levet en afmatning i den økonomiske aktivitet. Der er bedre tider I LAVT GEAR forude, men usikkerheden er stor. DANMARK 08 VÆKSTEN LADER VENTE PÅ SIG USA 16 LANGSOMT FREMAD EUROOMRÅDET 18 VÆKST KRÆVER TILLID RUSLAND 24 INFLATIONS DEJA-VU KINA 29 VARSOMME SKRIDT FREMAD OLIE 33 HØJE PRISER SELVOM UDBUDDET STIGER TO ALTERNATIVER 35 RISIKOSCENARIER2 ØKONOMISK PERSPEKTIV │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS
  2. 2. ■ IndholdDataoverblik OVERBLIK I lavt gear ..................................................................................................... 4Nøgletal ................................... 6Renter og valuta ................... 7 Nordiske økonomier DANMARK Væksten lader vente på sig ........................................................................... 8Redaktør SWEDEN Households prop up the economy ................................................................ 10Helge J. Pedersen,Cheføkonom NORWAYhelge.pedersen@nordea.com Risk of overheating may be the biggest challenge ........................................ 12Tel +45 3333 3126 FINLAND Finnish economy has cooled down across the board .................................... 14Redaktionel deadline Major economies30 August 2012 USA Moving slowly forward ................................................................................. 16 EURO AREA Restore confidence to end the recession ...................................................... 18Besøg os på: UKwww.nordeamarkets.com UK growth stalling – awaiting outside help ................................................... 20 JAPAN The challenges remain in the long term ........................................................ 21Kilder:Kilde til data i grafer er Reuters Emerging MarketsEcoWin og nationale statisti-kbureauer, med mindre andet er POLANDangivet. Slowdown under control .............................................................................. 22 RUSSIA Inflation déjà vu ........................................................................................... 24 ESTONIA Economy remains in a soft patch ................................................................. 26 LATVIA Economy keeps delivering positive surprises ............................................... 27 LITHUANIA Showing resilience ...................................................................................... 28 CHINA Stability, stability and … stability.................................................................. 29 INDIA A drought of growth..................................................................................... 31 BRAZIL Slow BRIC healing ....................................................................................... 32 Commodities OIL Oil prices stay high but spare capacity buffer should build ........................... 33 METALS Metal prices scratching the bottom for now .................................................. 34 TWO ALTERNATIVES Risk scenario 1: Back on track..................................................................... 35 Risk scenario 2: That sinking feeling............................................................ 363 ØKONOMISK PERSPEKTIV │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS
  3. 3. ■ OverblikI lavt gearVerdensøkonomien er fortsat i fremgang, men tempoet er ret i, at banker og kreditinstitutter har måttet skære nedlavt, og vejen frem er mudret. Euroområdet er igen på for udlånsaktiviteten. Dette brud i den pengepolitiskevej ind i recession, mens USA og resten af verden hen transmissionsmekanisme kan ECB få meget svært ved atover sommeren har oplevet en afmatning i den økonomi- rette op på, selv hvis den europæiske bankunion somske aktivitet. Vi er dog af den opfattelse, at der er bedre ventet bliver en realitet fra 2013.tider forude, men usikkerheden er stor. Pengepolitikkenvil være særdeles lempelig hen over prognoseperioden, Verden hænger jo sammenhvor også opstramningen af finanspolitikken i euroom- Så længe den indenlandske efterspørgsel ligger underdre-rådet løjer af. Men både den offentlige og private sektor jet – med store regionale forskelle mellem syd og nord –vil fortsat være fokuseret på at reducere gælden, og kre- er euroområdet fortsat meget afhængig af eksporten somditvæksten vil være svag. Der er således udsigt til en mo- drivkraft for den økonomiske vækst. Problemet er, at kri-derat vækst i verdensøkonomien på 3,1% i år. I 2013 og sen i euroområdet også har bredt sig til andre steder på2014 vil væksten øges til hhv. 3,5% og 3,8%. kloden. Således har de økonomiske nøgletal i både USA og Kina været ret svage hen over sommeren, og der erDen europæiske statsgældskrise nåede at blusse op igen fortsat risiko for, at situationen kan forværres. Især synesdenne sommer, katalyseret af parlamentsvalg i Græken- risikoen at være stor i USA, hvor der er præsidentvalg tilland og bankkrise i Spanien. Men brandslukningen gik november, og hvor man står yderst på den såkaldte ’’fi-hurtigt og prompte i gang. På topmødet i Bruxelles i slut- skale klippekant’’. De amerikanske politikere har bl.a.ningen af juni besluttede de europæiske politikere at tage fortsat ikke taget stilling til, om en række skattepolitiskeyderligere institutionelle skridt mod dannelsen af en ægte lempelser tilbage fra Bush-administrationens tid skal vi-økonomisk og monetær union, samtidig med at den nød- dereføres eller ej. Hvis de ikke bliver det, kan det i vær-lidende spanske banksektor fik stillet EUR 100 mia. til ste fald betyde en så kraftig opstramning af finanspoli-rådighed gennem den europæiske redningsfond tikken, at USA uvægerligt vil havne i en ny recession.EFSF/ESM. I juli sænkede ECB renten endnu engang Samtidig skal kongressen igen træffe beslutning om atmed 0,25 procentpoint, og senest har ’Super Mario’ hæve gældsloftet for at forhindre en offentlig betalings-Draghi verbalt udstukket garantier for, at euroområdet standsning i begyndelsen af det nye år. Det er ikke reali-ikke går i opløsning. stisk, at der påbegyndes en løsning på disse problemstil- linger før efter præsidentvalget, hvorfor de politiske risiciDet er endnu uklart, præcist hvordan ECB vil garantere for den fortsatte fremgang i USA ikke må undervurderes.dette, men alt tyder på, at det bliver i form af et storstiletinterventionsprogram i statsobligationsmarkedet. Det vil Vort hovedscenario er dog baseret på, at gældsloftet atterdog blive gjort betinget af, at det land, hvis obligationer hæves, og at i hvert fald en del af skattelettelserne videre-ECB skal købe, har anmodet EFSF/ESM om støtte og i føres under den nye præsident, uanset om han hedder Ba-den forbindelse indgår et dertil hørende økonomisk stabi- rack Obama eller Mitt Romney. Endelig må det ikkeliseringsprogram. Det sidste vil det gøre det nemmere for glemmes, at forbundsbanken under Ben Bernanke i langtBundesbank og de tyske politikere at sluge (endnu) en videre udstrækning end i euroområdet er indstillet på atøkonomisk politisk kamel. Tyskland er fortsat bekymret understøtte den økonomiske vækst. De pengepolitiskefor, at redningsplanerne kan føre til mere økonomisk styringsrenter vil derfor være rekordlave frem til 2014,slendrian blandt de gældsplagede landes politikere og og døren for yderligere kvantitative lempelser står fortsatlangsigtede inflationære risici. De store gældsramte lande åben, hvis konjunktursituationen forværres yderligere.Spanien og Italien er topkandidater til at benytte sig afden nye facilitet, hvis renten igen stiger til et ikke- Kina lemper den økonomiske politikholdbart niveau, men programmet er principielt åbent for Den politiske situation er mere forudsigelig i Kina, selv-alle lande. om ’Riget i Midten’ også skal finde en ny politisk ledelse i år. Men når det kommer til handling for at genskabeTillid er afgørende vækst, virker ét-parti systemet uovertruffent. I en perio-ECB’s proaktivitet – som også vil resultere i en yderlige- de, hvor eksportvæksten er ramt af den internationalere rentesænkning – er et vigtigt skridt i retning af at få afmatning, lempes den økonomiske politik med storgenskabt de finansielle markeders tillid til eurozonen. sandsynlighed så rigeligt, at den økonomiske vækst vilDet kan i sidste instans vise sig afgørende for også at få kunne holde sig omkring det niveau på 8%, der er nød-væksten tilbage i den private sektor. For selvom renten er vendig for at undgå en stigning i arbejdsløsheden.rekordlav, er forbrugs- og investeringslysten fortsat pånulpunktet. Det skyldes utvivlsomt en kombination af Vækstudsigterne synes også fortsat at være relativt fine imanglende tillid til fremtiden blandt husholdninger og Brasilien og Rusland, hjulpet af de høje råvarepriser ogvirksomheder, der afspejler sig i en svag låneefterspørg- nye reforminitiativer. Mere problematisk ser situationensel, og den nye regulering af den finansielle sektor. De ud i Indien, hvor eksporten er ramt af den internationaleskærpede solvens- og likviditetskrav har således resulte- afmatning, hvor en svag monsoon har medført krise i4 ØKONOMISK PERSPEKTIV │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS
  4. 4. ■ Overbliklandbruget, og et stort offentligt budgetunderskud redu- den efteråret 2010 har holdt aktiviteten fastlåst på et stortcerer mulighederne for at afhjælpe situationen gennem set uændret niveau. Økonomien vil over de kommendeøget offentlig efterspørgsel. kvartaler gradvist finde tilbage på vækstsporet trukket af et stort uforløst potentiale i husholdningerne, som grad-Højere priser, men ingen løn-pris-spiral i sigte vist vil blive vekslet til et stigende forbrug. Samtidig un-Vejrligets luner har også ramt USA, hvor den værste tør- derstøttes væksten af en forsinket effekt fra den offentli-ke i mands minde har afstedkommet rekordhøje priser på ge sektor, hvor både forbruget og investeringerne ventesbl.a. majs og soyabønner. De stigende fødevarepriser – at bidrage positivt.og nu igen stigende oliepriser – vil give anledning til sti-gende forbrugerpriser ikke alene i USA, men også i re- Høj sol over Norgesten af verden. Alligevel er der på nuværende tidspunkt Der er til gengæld kun få svaghedstegn at spore i denikke grund til den store bekymring for inflationen inden norske økonomi, som fortsat nyder godt af de høje olie-for prognoseperioden. Dertil er den økonomiske situation priser. Væksten vil også være stærk fremover, men tak-fortsat for svag i de industrialiserede lande, hvor der er ket være en stor indvandring af arbejdskraft kan det medmange ledige ressourcer. Derfor er der kun en meget lille stor sandsynlighed undgås, at arbejdsmarkedet overop-risiko for, at de stigende forbrugerpriser sætter gang i en hedes, og omkostningspresset stiger markant. Lønvæk-inflationær løn-pris-spiral, ligesom virksomhedernes mu- sten bliver godt nok markant højere end i de øvrige nor-lighed for at øge avancerne fortsat begrænses af den glo- diske lande, men ikke så høj, at Norges Banks inflati-bale konkurrence og fortsatte krise. onsmål bliver truet. Den stærke økonomiske vækst og en noget højere kapacitetsudnyttelse tilsiger ikke desto min-Pengepolitikken er lempelig længe endnu dre, at renten kommer til at stige noget over de kommen-Det betyder også, at de ledende markedsrenter kun vil de år. Dilemmaet for Norges Bank er imidlertid, at denstige svagt frem til 2014, hvor ECB og Fed vil begynde norske krone derved risikerer at blive styrket for meget.at stramme rentepolitikken igen. Vi venter, at ECB vilhæve renten til 1% mod slutningen af 2014, hvor Fed til Også den svenske økonomi har indtil videre været en sol-gengæld vil have sat renten op til 2%. Den enorme likvi- strålehistorie. Således steg både BNP og beskæftigelsen iditetsudpumpning, som de store centralbanker har stået første halvår 2012 til trods for afmatningen i den interna-bag over de senere år, udgør fortsat en latent inflationsfa- tionale økonomi. Meget tyder dog på, at væksten aftagerre, hvis ikke den trækkes tilbage, i takt med at de kom- over de kommende kvartaler, men husholdningerne ermercielle bankers udlånsvillighed atter tager til. Det vil i fortsat i god form, hvilket i kombination med en lidt me-givet fald kunne føre til højere renter end forudset i re ekspansiv økonomisk politik og den ventede bedringprognosen. af de internationale konjunkturer vil understøtte væksten hen over prognoseperioden. Afmatningen i resten afPengepolitikken har stor betydning for udviklingen i va- 2012 vil dog sætte sine spor på arbejdsmarkedet. Ledig-lutakurserne. Derfor vurderer vi også, at USD vil stige heden vil således stige i løbet af vinteren, hvilket vil bi-over for EUR i løbet af prognosehorisonten, selvom an- drage til at reducere det indenlandske omkostningspres. Idre forhold som betalingsbalance og gældssituation kan kombination med en fortsat styrkelse af SEK vil inflatio-dukke op som temaer på markedet. Den historiske bin- nen derfor kunne holdes betragteligt under målsætningending mellem USD og GBP betyder, at også GBP styrkes i på 2%. Riksbanken vil på den baggrund kunne sænkehovedscenariet over for EUR. Sent i prognoseperioden den pengepolitiske styringsrente yderligere i år. Modventer vi, at CHF svækkes over for EUR, mens JPY slutningen af 2013, når økonomien atter tager til i styrke,svækkes over for USD, i takt med at forholdene på de fi- vil banken påbegynde en ny stramningscyklus.naniselle markeder gradvist normaliseres. Finland mærker ligeledes afmatningen i verdensøkono-Også sikre havne kan rammes mien og er formentlig på vej i recession. Eksporten ogDanmark, Finland, Norge og Sverige tilhører alle den lil- investeringsaktiviteten falder i tråd med udviklingen ile eksklusive gruppe af lande, som har en toprating hos verdenshandlen, mens en svagere import afspejler pro-de store kreditvurderingsinstitutter. Det har givet status blemer i den indenlandske efterspørgsel. Det private for-som sikre havne på de finansielle markeder. Konsekven- brug har efterhånden ikke mange drivkræfter tilbage, ogsen har været markant stigende valutakurser for Norge og dampen vil gå yderligere af, når afmatningen også ram-Sveriges vedkommende, mens Danmark, som fører fast- mer arbejdsmarkedet. Et nyt opsving drevet af bedre in-kurspolitik over for euroområdet, har oplevet rekordlave ternationale konjunkturer vil først komme senere i prog-renter. Faktisk har den danske nationalbank måtte indføre noseperioden. På den baggrund har vi nedjusteretnegative renter på indskudsbeviser for at reducere kapi- vækstskønnet for 2013, som dog fortsat er markant høje-taltilstrømningen, der også har resulteret i en rekordstor re end gennemsnittet for euroområdet.valutareserve. Cheføkonom Helge J. PedersenAlligevel præger lav vækst og stor usikkerhed dansk helge.pedersen@nordea.com +45 3333 3126økonomi, som fortsat hænger fast i det dødvande, der si-5 ØKONOMISK PERSPEKTIV │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS
  5. 5. ■ OverblikRealvækst, % Inflation, % 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014EVerden1) 4.6 3.8 3.1 3.5 3.8 Verden1) 2.8 4.1 2.9 2.9 2.9USA 2.4 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.2 USA 1.6 3.1 2.1 2.2 2.2Euroområdet 1.9 1.5 -0.4 0.6 1.7 Euroområdet 1.6 2.7 2.2 1.6 1.6Kina 9.2 10.5 8.0 8.3 8.5 Kina 3.3 5.4 3.1 4.0 3.8Japan 4.6 -0.7 2.5 1.6 1.1 Japan -0.7 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.1Danmark 1.3 0.8 0.7 1.9 2.1 Danmark 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.0 2.2Norge 1.9 2.4 3.7 3.0 2.8 Norge 2.5 1.2 0.8 1.8 2.1Sverige 6.2 3.9 1.2 1.8 2.3 Sverige 1.2 3.0 1.2 1.2 2.0UK 1.8 0.8 -0.4 1.0 1.7 UK 3.3 4.5 3.0 2.2 1.4Schw eiz 2.7 2.1 1.5 1.9 2.4 Schw eiz 0.7 0.2 -0.7 0.6 1.6Tyskland 4.0 3.1 0.9 1.4 2.1 Tyskland 0.2 1.2 1.9 1.7 2.1Frankrig 1.6 1.7 0.1 0.8 1.7 Frankrig 0.1 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.9Italien 1.8 0.5 -2.3 -0.5 1.0 Italien 1.6 2.9 3.1 2.1 1.5Spanien -0.3 0.4 -1.2 -0.9 1.1 Spanien 2.0 3.1 2.4 2.2 0.5Holland 1.6 1.1 -0.2 1.2 1.7 Holland 0.9 2.5 2.4 1.7 1.8Østrig 2.3 2.7 0.9 0.8 1.7 Østrig 1.7 3.6 2.2 1.8 1.9Belgien 2.4 1.8 -0.4 0.6 1.8 Belgien 2.3 3.5 2.2 1.5 1.7Portugal 1.4 -1.6 -2.7 0.0 1.2 Portugal 1.4 3.6 2.9 1.5 1.3Grækenland -3.5 -6.9 -6.6 -0.9 1.2 Grækenland 4.7 3.1 0.5 -0.5 0.0Finland 3.3 2.7 0.8 1.2 2.8 Finland 1.2 3.4 3.0 2.5 2.3Irland -0.8 1.4 -0.2 1.5 2.1 Irland -1.6 1.2 1.8 1.5 1.5Estland 2.3 7.6 2.3 3.5 3.8 Estland 3.0 5.0 3.7 3.0 2.9Polen 3.9 4.3 2.8 2.3 3.1 Polen 2.6 4.3 3.9 2.7 2.2Rusland 4.0 4.4 4.2 4.8 5.0 Rusland 6.9 8.5 6.3 6.8 7.0Letland -0.3 5.5 4.2 2.5 3.9 Letland -1.1 4.4 2.3 2.5 2.8Litauen 1.4 5.9 2.7 3.3 3.5 Litauen 1.3 4.1 3.0 2.8 3.0Indien 9.6 6.9 6.0 6.7 7.2 Indien 9.6 9.5 7.5 6.8 7.0Brasilien 7.6 2.8 2.6 4.6 4.8 Brasilien 5.0 6.4 5.2 5.4 5.8Offentlige finanser, % af BNP Betalingsbalance, % af BNP 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014EUSA -8.9 -8.6 -7.0 -5.5 -4.1 USA -3.0 -3.1 -3.0 -3.5 -3.0Euroområdet -6.2 -4.1 -3.7 -3.0 -2.5 Euroområdet 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0Kina -1.7 -1.1 -1.5 -2.3 -1.9 Kina 5.1 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.5Japan -9.0 -9.7 -9.9 -9.6 -9.0 Japan 3.6 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.4Danmark -2.7 -1.9 -3.9 -2.1 -0.5 Danmark 5.5 6.7 5.8 5.1 4.4Norge 11.3 13.8 13.7 13.9 13.6 Norge 12.4 14.5 14.9 15.4 15.1Sverige -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -1.0 -0.5 Sverige 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.6 7.5UK -10.4 -8.3 -7.6 -6.4 -4.7 UK -2.5 -1.9 -2.3 -2.1 -1.3Schw eiz 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 Schw eiz 14.3 10.4 9.3 8.7 9.9Tyskland -4.3 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 Tyskland 5.8 5.3 4.6 4.4 4.0Frankrig -7.1 -5.2 -4.7 -3.9 -3.5 Frankrig -2.2 -2.7 -2.4 -2.1 -2.0Italien -4.6 -3.9 -2.0 -1.8 -1.0 Italien -3.5 -3.1 -2.0 -1.0 -0.5Finland -2.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 0.5 Finland 1.6 -1.1 -0.2 0.2 0.6Estland 0.2 1.0 -1.5 -0.5 -0.3 Estland 3.8 2.1 -2.3 -1.5 -1.3Polen -7.8 -5.1 -3.3 -3.3 -2.9 Polen -4.7 -4.3 -3.6 -3.0 -3.0Rusland -4.0 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.7 Rusland 4.8 4.5 4.2 3.0 2.5Letland -8.2 -3.5 -2.2 -2.0 -2.0 Letland 3.0 -1.2 -3.2 -3.5 -3.6Litauen -7.2 -5.5 -2.7 -3.0 -3.0 Litauen 1.1 -1.6 -2.7 -3.0 -3.0Indien -3.6 -6.6 -7.0 -7.5 -8.0 Indien -3.3 -2.8 -4.0 -3.0 -2.2Brasilien -2.7 -2.4 -2.0 -2.1 -2.2 Brasilien -2.3 -2.1 -2.5 -2.7 -2.81) Vægt et gennemsnit af lande i t abellen, om udgør 70,7 %af verdens BNP. Vægt e er beregnet ud f ra købekraf t skorrigeret BNP-niveauer for 2010 i henhold til IM F’s World Economic Out look database6 ØKONOMISK PERSPEKTIV │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS
  6. 6. ■ OverblikPengepolitiske styringsrenter Pengepolitisk rentespænd til euroområdet 30.8.12 3M 30.6.13 31.12.13 31.12.14 30.8.12 3M 30.6.13 31.12.13 31.12.14USA 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 2.00 USA -0.50 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 1.00Japan 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Japan1) -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -1.90Euroområdet 0.75 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 Euroområdet - - - - -Danmark 0.20 0.05 0.15 0.25 1.00 Danmark -0.55 -0.45 -0.35 -0.25 0.00Sverige 1.50 1.25 1.00 1.50 2.00 Sverige 0.75 0.75 0.50 1.00 1.00Norge 1.50 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.75 Norge 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75UK 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 UK -0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Schw eiz 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 Schw eiz -0.75 -0.50 -0.50 0.00 0.00Polen 4.75 4.50 4.00 4.00 4.50 Polen 4.00 4.00 3.50 3.50 3.50Rusland 8.00 8.00 8.25 8.25 8.25 Rusland 7.25 7.50 7.75 7.75 7.25Kina 6.00 5.75 5.75 6.00 6.00 Kina 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.50 5.00Indien 8.00 8.00 7.75 7.75 7.50 Indien 7.25 7.50 7.25 7.25 6.50Brasilien 7.50 7.50 7.50 8.00 10.50 Brasilien 6.75 7.00 7.00 7.50 9.50 1) Spænd til USA3 mdr. renter 3 mdr. rentespænd til euroområdet 30.8.12 3M 30.6.13 31.12.13 31.12.14 30.8.12 3M 30.6.13 31.12.13 31.12.14USA 0.42 0.45 0.50 0.60 2.50 USA 0.13 0.20 0.25 0.10 1.30Euroområdet 0.29 0.25 0.25 0.50 1.20 Euroområdet - - - - -Danmark 0.31 0.35 0.40 0.70 1.45 Danmark 0.03 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25Sverige 1.95 1.55 1.50 2.00 2.50 Sverige 1.66 1.30 1.25 1.50 1.30Norge 2.05 2.02 2.27 2.43 3.16 Norge 1.76 1.77 2.02 1.93 1.96UK 0.68 0.60 0.60 0.60 1.25 UK 0.40 0.35 0.35 0.10 0.05Polen 5.04 4.85 4.35 4.30 4.80 Polen 4.75 4.60 4.10 3.80 3.60Rusland 7.17 7.40 7.50 7.50 8.00 Rusland 6.88 7.15 7.25 7.00 6.80Letland 0.61 0.55 0.50 0.50 1.20 Letland 0.32 0.30 0.25 0.00 0.00Litauen 0.89 0.75 0.80 1.10 1.70 Litauen 0.60 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.5010-årige benchmark statsobligationsrenter 10-årigt rentespænd til euroområdet 30.8.12 3M 30.6.13 31.12.13 31.12.14 30.8.12 3M 30.6.13 31.12.13 31.12.14USA 1.64 2.00 2.50 3.00 4.00 USA 0.30 0.25 0.60 0.80 1.35Euroområdet 1.35 1.75 1.90 2.20 2.65 Euroområdet - - - - -Danmark 1.08 1.55 1.75 2.05 2.55 Danmark -0.26 -0.20 -0.15 -0.15 -0.10Sverige 1.38 1.80 2.00 2.60 3.00 Sverige 0.04 0.05 0.10 0.40 0.35Norge 1.97 2.58 2.86 2.96 3.14 Norge 0.62 0.83 0.96 0.76 0.49UK 1.48 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.75 UK 0.14 0.00 0.10 0.05 0.10Polen 4.92 4.80 4.90 5.00 5.50 Polen 3.58 3.05 3.00 2.80 2.85Valutakurser mod DKK Valutakurser mod EUR og USD 30.8.12 3M 30.6.13 31.12.13 31.12.14 30.8.12 3M 30.6.13 31.12.13 31.12.14EUR/DKK 7.45 7.45 7.46 7.46 7.46 EUR/USD 1.26 1.30 1.20 1.15 1.10USD/DKK 5.93 5.73 6.21 6.48 6.78 EUR/JPY 1) 99 104 98 98 99JPY/DKK1) 7.54 7.16 7.58 7.63 7.53 EUR/GBP 0.79 0.81 0.78 0.77 0.75SEK/DKK 0.89 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.87 EUR/CHF 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.25 1.30NOK/DKK 1.02 0.99 0.99 1.01 0.99 EUR/SEK 8.36 8.35 8.50 8.60 8.60GBP/DKK 9.39 9.23 9.62 9.75 9.94 EUR/NOK 7.31 7.50 7.50 7.40 7.50CHF/DKK 6.20 6.21 6.21 5.96 5.73 EUR/PLN 4.19 4.00 3.92 3.80 3.70PLN/DKK 1.78 1.86 1.90 1.96 2.01 USD/JPY 78.6 80.0 82.0 85.0 90.0RUB/DKK 0.18 0.18 0.21 0.23 0.23 USD/GBP 1.58 1.61 1.55 1.50 1.47LVL/DKK 10.7 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.6 USD/CHF 0.96 0.92 1.00 1.09 1.18LTL/DKK 2.16 2.16 2.16 2.16 2.16 USD/SEK 6.66 6.42 7.08 7.48 7.82CNY/DKK 0.93 0.90 0.98 1.04 1.11 USD/NOK 5.81 5.77 6.25 6.43 6.82INR/DKK 0.11 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.15 USD/PLN 3.33 3.08 3.27 3.30 3.36BRL/DKK 2.89 2.94 3.36 3.70 3.99 USD/CNY 6.35 6.36 6.34 6.25 6.101) Pr. 100 enheder USD/INR 55.6 55.0 53.0 48.0 45.0 USD/BRL 2.05 1.95 1.85 1.75 1.707 ØKONOMISK PERSPEKTIV │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS
  7. 7. ■ DanmarkVæksten lader vente på sig• Stigende aktivitet frem mod 2014 Trods udsigt til en historisk høj opsparingskvote har vi i prognosen antaget, at det private forbrug gradvist vil• Bedre takter på boligmarkedet vokse frem mod udgangen af 2014. Den accelererende• Forsinket effekt fra offentlig pengestrøm vækst i privatforbruget vil dels blive trukket af et opspa- ret forbrugsbehov, dels blive hjulpet på vej af en generelt• Negative renter fra Nationalbanken virker bedre stemning omkring dansk økonomi. Ikke mindst ud- sigterne til stigende beskæftigelse og en forbedret situati-Lav vækst og stor usikkerhed præger dansk økonomi, on på boligmarkedet vil øge forbrugslysten i de danskesom fortsat hænger fast i det dødvande, der siden efter- husholdninger henover prognoseperioden.året 2010 har holdt aktiviteten fastlåst på et stort setuændret niveau. Vi forventer, dog, at økonomien over Boligmarkedet viser tegn på helingde kommende kvartaler gradvist vil finde tilbage på Det blødende boligmarked har siden midten af 2008vækstsporet og vokse med 0,7% i indeværende år, sti- hængt som en tung blyklods om halsen på dansk økono-gende til 1,9% i 2013 og 2,1% i 2014. mi. Faldet i boligformuen, mindre kreditvækst og histo- risk lav aktivitet inden for byggeriet har således været enDen ventede vending i konjunkturerne vil på den inden- af hovedårsagerne til det stagnerende privatforbrug. Medlandske front blive trukket af et stort uforløst potentiale i de seneste revisioner af månedstallene fra Danmarks Sta-husholdningerne, som gradvist vil blive vekslet til et sti- tistiks Ejendomsprisstatistik tyder meget dog på, at bo-gende forbrug. Samtidig understøttes væksten af en for- ligpriserne siden årets start har stabiliseret sig. Vi forven-sinket effekt fra den offentlige sektor, hvor både forbru- ter, at denne udvikling markerer startskuddet på et nytget og investeringerne ventes at bidrage positivt. regime på det danske boligmarked, hvor de historisk lave finansieringsomkostninger og et stort opsparet efter-Forbrugerne holder på pengene spørgselsbehov efterhånden konsoliderer markedet.Selv om udbetalingerne fra de opsparede efterlønspengenærmer sig DKK 20 mia. (og dermed allerede nu oversti- Priserne vil dog blive holdt i ave af et fortsat stort lagerger de officielle forventninger), er effekten på detailsal- af usolgte boliger, en lav omsætning og en høj ungdoms-get og privatforbruget indtil videre udeblevet. I stedet har arbejdsløshed, som reducerer antallet af førstegangskøbe-mange valgt at øge opsparingen, og husholdningernes re. Fanget mellem disse to modsatrettede kræfter ventersamlede indestående i pengeinstitutterne er steget til det vi, at boligpriserne i resten af året vil ligge stort set ufor-højeste niveau nogensinde. For dansk økonomi betyder andret. Ind i det nye år venter vi, at huspriserne langsomtdet, at aktiviteten lider under manglen på den vitaminind- vil kravle opad, så de ind i 2014 igen overstiger den for-sprøjtning, som normalt strømmer fra det private forbrug. ventede inflation. De moderat stigende boligpriser vilSamtidig amputerer det regeringens muligheder for at først og fremmest blive koncentreret omkring de storestimulere den økonomiske aktivitet gennem skatte- og byer, hvor den demografiske udvikling tilsiger et opad-afgiftspolitikken. gående pres på efterspørgslen.Danmark: makroøkonomiske nøgletal (realvækst i pct. med mindre andet er angivet) 2009 (DKKbn) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014EPrivatforbrug 815 1.9 -0.8 0.6 1.8 1.9Offentligt forbrug 497 0.3 -1.3 0.4 0.8 0.8Faste bruttoinvesteringer i alt 314 -3.7 0.2 2.8 4.0 4.7 - offentlige investeringer 33 8.5 5.2 8.5 -12.0 2.5 - boliginvesteringer 80 -7.4 8.8 -5.8 4.7 5.0 - faste erhvervsinvesteringer 201 -4.4 -3.8 5.0 7.1 4.9Lagerinvesteringer* -20 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0Eksport 794 3.2 7.0 2.0 2.9 3.5Import 731 3.5 5.2 2.6 3.6 3.6BNP 1.3 0.8 0.7 1.9 2.1BNP nominel (mia. DKK) 1,668 1,772 1,783 1,818 1,879 1,949Bruttoarbejdsløshed, % 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.2Bruttoarbejdsløshed, 1000 personer 164.5 162.1 165.0 168.7 163.2Forbrugerpriser, % årsvækst 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.0 2.2Lønninger i den privat sektor, % årsvækst 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1Nominelle huspriser, enfamilie, % y/y 2.8 -2.8 -4.3 1.2 1.9Betalingsbalance (mia. DKK) 96.9 119.1 105.0 95.0 85.0 - % af BNP 5.5 6.7 5.8 5.1 4.4Offentlig budgetsaldo (mia. DKK) -47.4 -34.5 -71.0 -40.0 -10.0 - % af BNP -2.7 -1.9 -3.9 -2.1 -0.5Offentlig gæld, % af BNP 42.9 46.6 45.5 44.5 43.0* Contribution to GDP growth (% points)8 ØKONOMISK PERSPEKTIV │SEPTEMBER 2011 NORDEA MARKETS
  8. 8. ■ DanmarkNegative nationalbankrenter er en succes Forbruget er stagneretNationalbanken har under gældskrisen været tvunget tilat føre en meget proaktiv pengepolitik for at holde dendanske krone stabil over for euroen. Som et vitalt led idette forsvar nedsatte Nationalbanken i starten af juli ren-ten på indskudsbeviser til -0,20%. Det er første gang iDanmarkshistorien, at Nationalbanken opererer med ne-gative renter på indskud. Operationen har indtil viderehaft den ønskede effekt. Den danske krone er stabiliseretpå et solidt niveau over for euroen, uden at Nationalban-ken har haft behov for at gribe ind på markedet. Det står iskarp kontrast til situationen i maj og juni, hvor der i altblev solgt danske kroner for mere end DKK 36 mia. somled i forsvaret af den danske fastkurspolitik. Nationalbankens indlånsrente er negativOffentlig pengestrøm sander tilI et forsøg på at løfte økonomien ud af det aktuelle død-vande har regeringen besluttet at fremrykke offentligeinvesteringer for i alt DKK 19 mia. Samtidig er det of-fentlige forbrug budgetteret til at vokse med DKK 18mia. i år og yderligere knap DKK 8 mia. i 2013 – sva-rende til en real vækst på henholdsvis 1,5% og 0,1%.Trods disse intentioner var der i 1. halvår et fald i det of-fentlige forbrug på 1,0%, mens de offentlige investerin-ger ”kun” steg med 3%. Dermed har dansk økonomi ind-til videre ikke fået det bidrag fra finanspolitikken, somoprindeligt var planlagt. Forklaringen på den træge ud-vikling skal dels findes i en lang implementeringsperiode Forbedret konkurrenceevnefor de offentlige investeringer, dels at forbruget i den of-fentlige sektor historisk set har vist sig særdeles vanske-ligt at finjustere. Udviklingen betyder, at der er udsigt tilen betydelig ketchupeffekt over de kommende kvartaler,som vil kunne yde et væsentligt bidrag til at trækkedansk økonomi fri af det aktuelle dødvande, hvis rege-ringen formår at leve op til sine egne planer.Forbedret konkurrenceevne trækker eksporten fremEfter et midlertidigt dyk i årets start er eksporten igen påfremmarch. Denne udvikling er dels drevet af en fortsatvækst på de vigtigste eksportmarkeder, dels af en forbed-ret konkurrenceevne. Det er først og fremmest sket gen-nem en svækkelse af den handelsvægtede kronekurs, somhar gjort danske varer forholdsmæssigt billigere på de Dekobling mellem beskæftigelse og boligpriserudenlandske markeder.Men også det seneste års markante fald i lønstigningstak-ten i kombination med en forbedring i produktivitetenbetyder, at enhedslønomkostningerne i Danmark nu sti-ger langsommere end hos de vigtigste samhandelspartne-re. Og selvom effekten af de lavere enhedslønomkostnin-ger primært slår igennem på lidt længere sigt, er det enhelt afgørende forudsætning for at kunne fastholde enfortsat og nødvendig fremgang i eksporten.Helge J. Pedersenhelge.pedersen@nordea.com +45 33333126Jan Størup NielsenJan.storup.nielsen@nordea.com +45 333331719 ØKONOMISK PERSPEKTIV │SEPTEMBER 2011 NORDEA MARKETS
  9. 9. ■ SwedenHouseholds prop up the economy• GDP growth edging higher in coming years … Households keep the wheels turning Household finances are generally stable. A low inflation• … but near term, the labour market will weaken level and pay rises jack up households’ purchasing pow-• Long period of low inflation er. Real disposable incomes will rise by about 2% annu- ally in 2012-2014. The improved household finances• Riksbank to cut rates this year, and the SEK weakens have fed through to the housing market. House prices have started to rise again after having shown a slightlyGood growth weak trend over the past year. Share prices are also im-The Swedish economy has been surprisingly resilient to portant for households’ propensity to spend, and sincethe global turbulence. GDP growth did drop towards the the turn of the year stock markets have recovered some-end of 2011, but both the GDP and employment rose what. The conditions for households are therefore benignagain during H1 2012. The domestic economy was the so we expect consumer spending to rise noticeably inkey driver of growth, but also foreign trade improved. coming years.Growth in H1 2012 was fairly high, we think, despite thepossibility of a downward revision to Q2 GDP growth. Investment activity lost pace in Q2 2012 after rising sharply at the beginning of the year. There are indicationsAlthough the economy has been able to tackle the global that capacity utilisation in several sectors has declined,obstacles better than expected, GDP growth is still not which reduces the need for new investment. In addition,sufficiently high to prevent a decline in the demand for investment appetite seems suppressed by the dark cloudslabour. We expect unemployment to rise above 8% dur- still hanging over Europe. The number of housing startsing the winter. has already dropped sharply, and total investment will show a weak trend in coming quarters. We expect theProspects for H2 2012 are mixed. We will likely see sub- general need for investments to be modest during most ofdued growth. However, longer out there are factors sug- next year and then increase in 2014 in tandem with thegesting a pick-up in activity. A benign situation for overall pick-up in activity. An expansionary fiscal policyhouseholds, a slightly more expansionary economic poli- partly based on infrastructure investment will contributecy and a global economy that gradually recovers are the to underpinning investment growth over the forecastfactors that will underpin higher GDP growth in coming horizon.years. However, due to global weakness growth will onlyaccelerate slowly and unemployment will not decline un- Tough times for the export industrytil the latter part of the forecast period Despite some improvement recently, exports of goods have stagnated over the past year. The order intake re-Sweden: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted) 2009 (SEKbn) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014EPrivate consumption 1,533 3.7 2.0 1.7 2.0 2.1Government consumption 860 1.9 1.8 0.8 0.5 1.5Fixed investment 559 7.7 6.2 2.5 1.0 3.5 - industry 74 1.0 7.9 -2.2 2.2 4.4 - residential investment 92 17.2 15.1 -8.7 -2.2 4.5Stockbuilding* -46 2.1 0.6 -1.1 0.1 0.0Exports 1,489 11.7 6.9 1.2 4.2 4.9Imports 1,288 12.7 6.3 -0.4 3.8 5.1GDP 6.2 3.9 1.2 1.8 2.3GDP, calendar adjusted 5.9 3.9 1.5 1.8 2.4Nominal GDP (SEKbn) 3,106 3,331 3,492 3,580 3,703 3,836Unemployment rate, % 8.4 7.5 7.7 8.0 7.7Employment grow th 1.0 2.1 0.3 -0.2 0.8Consumer prices, % y/y 1.2 3.0 1.2 1.2 2.0Underlying inflation (CPIF), % y/y 2.0 1.4 1.1 1.5 1.5Hourly earnings, % y/y 0.4 2.9 3.3 3.2 2.8Current account (SEKbn) 225 243 259 280 288- % of GDP 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.6 7.5Trade balance, % of GDP 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.7General govt budget balance (SEKbn) -2 5 -12 -38 -18- % of GDP -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -1.0 -0.5Gross public debt, % of GDP 39.4 38.4 38.1 39.1 39.6* Contribution to GDP growth (% points)10 ØKONOMISK PERSPEKTIV │SEPTEMBER 2011 NORDEA MARKETS
  10. 10. ■ Swedenmains weak, and growth in many key export markets is Rising incomes and consumptionlow. Accordingly, goods exports will likely remain sub-dued during the remainder of 2012. Also the strong SEKis a problem for exporters. However, it probably affectsprofitability rather than volumes. The situation will im-prove longer out as the SEK will likely weaken and de-mand gradually rise.Sweden’s trade in services, which has increased sharplyso far this year, is gaining significance. Exports of ser-vices have risen from 6% of GDP in 1980 to currently15% of GDP. The export markets for services are largelyidentical to those for goods – where demand is weak.This suggests that the pick-up in H1 was temporary andwill lose momentum going forward. Weak global demand a drag on Swedish exportsLow inflation puts pressure on the RiksbankDespite an increase in the number of employed this yearthe labour market still shows signs of weakness. The de-mand for labour has not been sufficiently strong to keepunemployment in check. Labour market indicators arestill at benign levels, but have started to soften. We lookfor a decline in employment and accelerating growth inunemployment during autumn and winter.Labour market weakness is usually accompanied by re-duced domestic inflation. Also, the SEK strengtheninghelps putting a lid on costs. Inflation pressures thus lookset to moderate even further in future, extending the peri-od of core inflation markedly below the 2% target. This Reduced pressure on domestic marketmay cause some concern for the Riksbank as it couldcontribute to further accelerating the decline in inflationexpectations.The door is thus open for monetary easing. With low in-flation, a weaker labour market, low policy rates interna-tionally and a risk of further SEK appreciation, the Riks-bank should cut rates this year. But when the economystarts to recover in the latter part of 2013, the bank willembark on a hiking cycle.A paradigm shift for the SEKThe SEK has become a safe-haven currency in 2012. Thereasons are the modest exposure of the Swedish economyto troubled areas, solid public finances and a highly com- Paradigm shift for SEKpetitive business sector that generates surprisingly stronggrowth and increased interest rate differentials. Goingforward, we expect the SEK to weaken versus the EURin step with a gradual stabilisation of the situation inter-nationally and a narrowing of interest rate differentials.However, EUR/SEK will remain at levels below 9throughout the forecast period. The USD will continue tostrengthen against most currencies, including the SEK.Torbjörn Isakssontorbjorn.isaksson@nordea.com +46 8 614 885911 ØKONOMISK PERSPEKTIV │SEPTEMBER 2011 NORDEA MARKETS
  11. 11. ■ NorwayRisk of overheating may be the biggest challenge• Strong domestic demand growth feared. Some export industries are facing difficulties, but for instance strong growth in electricity exports has put a• High immigration prevents overheating floor under total export growth. However, while this• And Norges Bank may proceed with caution trend is probably only temporary, the strong growth in exports within the engineering industry should continue.The Norwegian economy is showing few signs of weak- It reflects the increasing significance of the oil servicesness and we see no reason to change our optimistic view industry for Norwegian exports. With sustained high oilof the economy going forward. Growth looks set to be prices, prospects are good for this type of exports in thehigh, but with increased labour immigration an overheat- years ahead. Over the forecast period we also see growthing of the economy and sharply rising costs will probably in traditional exports rising, driven by stronger traditionalbe avoided. Wage growth will be much higher than in export market growth.neighbouring countries, but not so high as to push infla-tion above target. However, strong economic growth and The exceptionally strong growth in Norwegian oil in-higher capacity utilisation point to higher interest rates vestment has been vital for the oil services industry.during the next couple of years. But fears of excessive Growth will likely slow in coming years, but it will stillNOK strengthening limit Norges Bank’s room for ma- remain very high. In our view, capacity limitations innoeuvre in monetary policy. many areas will prove the key obstacle to growth in this industry. Pressures in this part of the economy seem to beStrong consumption growth one of main reasons why the wage negotiations, despiteStrong wage and employment growth and very low infla- all the talk of competitiveness and the so-calledtion currently boost consumer purchasing power. It is “frontfagmodell” (meaning that the negotiations start intherefore no surprise that consumption growth in H1 the industries particularly exposed to competition), result2012 was very high after last year’s weaker-than- in pay rises in manufacturing way beyond those in rivalexpected trend. And with an initial high level of savings countries.and a sustained strong labour market we see consumptiongrowth continuing unabated during the remainder of the We also see fairly strong growth in mainland investmentyear and into 2013. In 2013 and 2014 consumption going forward, although the pace is not likely to matchgrowth should slow down as a result of higher interest that of oil investment growth. The propensity to investrates and more moderate employment growth. should be high with strong production gains in large parts of the corporate sector. Higher credit margins and tighterHigher exports, but lower mainland investment bank credit standards could slightly dampen investmentDespite weak growth in export markets, a strong NOK growth, but this effect will likely be largely offset by theand wage growth well above levels in other countries, overall very low interest rate level. A possible sharp es-mainland exports have remained at a higher level than calation of the euro crisis and a new financial crisisNorway: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted) 2009(NOKbn) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014EPrivate consumption 1,028 3.7 2.4 3.7 3.5 3.0Government consumption 531 1.7 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.5Fixed investment 516 -5.2 6.4 7.2 4.9 3.7 - gross investment, mainland 349 -2.5 8.0 3.2 3.7 3.7 - gross investment, oil 144 -14.3 9.1 20.0 8.0 4.0Stockbuilding* 14 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0Exports 929 1.8 -1.4 1.6 1.1 1.3 - crude oil and natural gas 416 -4.8 -6.2 2.5 0.0 0.0 - other goods 277 2.5 -0.4 0.0 2.0 2.5Imports 660 9.9 3.5 3.0 3.9 3.0GDP 2,357 0.7 1.4 3.4 2.4 2.3GDP, mainland 1,876 1.9 2.4 3.7 3.0 2.8Unemployment rate, % 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.9Consumer prices, % y/y 2.5 1.2 0.8 1.8 2.1Core inflation, % y/y 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.5 2.1Annual w ages, % y/y 3.6 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3Current account (NOKbn) 313.6 393.9 437.1 482.9 497.5- % of GDP 12.4 14.5 14.9 15.4 15.1Trade balance, % of GDP 12.4 13.8 14.6 15.1 14.8General govt budget balance (NOKbn) 284.5 375.1 400.0 435.0 450.0- % of GDP 11.3 13.8 13.7 13.9 13.6* Contribution to GDP growth (% points)12 ØKONOMISK PERSPEKTIV │SEPTEMBER 2011 NORDEA MARKETS
  12. 12. ■ Norwaycould, however, result in much tighter credit standards, Norwegian manufacturing production risesand this is probably one of the key risks to the Norwe-gian economy.Inflation to edge higherStrong domestic demand growth will contribute to strongproduction growth in the years ahead. However, thanksto high immigration we do not expect labour shortages tobecome a major problem. Nor do we expect major bot-tlenecks in the labour market despite shortages in someskilled areas. Consequently, wage growth should not pickup sharply, but still remain relatively high at just above4% in the years ahead.Wage growth just above 4%, strong domestic demand Higher income growth -> higher consumption growthgrowth and a relatively stable NOK suggest that inflationwill edge higher in coming years. Core inflation may riseto 2% over the forecast period, up from 1% at present,but to drive inflation above the 2½% target, cost growthwould have to be higher.Gradually higher interest ratesAgainst the background of strong growth, a relativelytight labour market, somewhat higher inflation andslightly improved prospects globally, Norges Bank willwant to hike interest rates during the forecast period. Al-so the steady increases in house prices and credit growthfrom high levels suggest higher interest rates. However,with below-target inflation and domestic economicgrowth largely matching capacity growth, Norges Bank Supply and demand growth almost identicalwill not be in a hurry. In the absence of rate hikes inneighbouring countries, an aggressive monetary policyline would only strengthen the NOK to levels that wouldcause inflation to drop further below target.At the time of writing the NOK has strengthened quitesignificantly against the EUR, but measured in terms ofthe trade-weighted exchange rate, the NOK strengtheningis far more modest. We expect Norges Bank to hike itspolicy rate twice next year, but these moves should notresult in a long-lasting period of NOK strengthening. In2014 the pace of monetary tightening may be increasedfurther, but as interest rates in other countries are alsolikely to go up, Norges Bank can hike its policy rateswithout risking excessive NOK strengthening. NOK not so strong in trade-weighted termsThere is a clear risk that the high domestic demandgrowth could result in increased capacity problems, high-er wage growth and consequently gradually higher infla-tion than we project. If so, Norges Bank will act moreaggressively, accepting the effect on the NOK. And theNOK strengthening would contribute to preventing infla-tion from rising above target. If Norges Bank chooses tofocus less on meeting the inflation target and more onpreventing surging house prices and household creditgrowth, the result may be a combination of higher inter-est rates and a stronger NOK. However, judging from thebank’s rhetoric it is not about to change its priorities.Erik Bruceerik.bruce@nordea.com +47 2248 444913 ØKONOMISK PERSPEKTIV │SEPTEMBER 2011 NORDEA MARKETS
  13. 13. ■ Finland Finnish economy has cooled down across the board• Exports will not recover until 2013 for instance, turned down again in the first half of the year. In our forecast, we assume export volumes to con-• Growth in private consumption will slow down tinue declining in the latter part of the year. The decreas-• Employment will fall less than previously forecast ing world trade growth will weaken production expecta- tions globally and decrease investment needs. This is bad• Public sector deficit will decrease news to the Finnish export industry, as its main products are raw materials, production supplies and investmentAs expected, economic activity has decreased in Finland goods. We expect international demand to strengthenacross the board after the first quarter of this year. Ex- moderately in 2013. Export volumes will increase butports have contracted, investment has continued to de- growth will still remain modest.cline and the growth in private consumption has sloweddown. Imports have decreased more than exports, which Growth in private consumption to slow downis, in particular, a sign of weakening in domestic demand. Private consumption increased at a brisk pace in Q1 thisWhat is positive, is that employment has not yet weak- year compared to Q4 2011. This was a result of the one-ened. However, it is probably only a question of time be- off additional salary items based on collective agree-fore it does. ments, which boosted retail sales, and the car tax hike that entered into force at the beginning of April, whichBased on preliminary data, the economy contracted in Q2 made people purchase new cars earlier than they other-compared to the previous quarter. Our forecast assumes wise would have. The growth in retail sales volumesthat the decline continues in Q3. This means that we be- slowed down markedly in Q2 and in July it stopped alto-lieve the Finnish economy is in recession, just like many gether. Car sales, too, have decreased sharply. Thanks toother European countries. As in our previous forecast, the strong beginning of the year, private consumptionhowever, we believe the recession will not last long and will significantly boost the economic growth this yearthere is no need to change the previous GDP growth despite the recent cooling.forecast of 0.8% for this year. On the other hand, interna-tional trade has cooled down more than expected, which For the remaining part of the year and for 2013, the out-indicates that an export-led recovery from the recession look for private consumption will remain weak. The in-will be much slower than previously estimated. That is crease in salaries and pensions as well as the decrease inwhy we have lowered our forecast for economic growth mortgage interest rates will support households purchas-in Finland in 2013 to 1.2% (previously 1.6%). In 2014, ing power. The growth in purchase power will, however,we expect growth to speed up to 2.8% as especially the be restrained by tax increases and the expected weaken-North-European economies will recover. ing in employment. Taxes will increase as the value add- ed tax will be raised and no inflation adjustments of in-Exports will not recover until 2013 come limits will be made in the income tax brackets. InFinnish goods exports have varied widely over the past addition, the rather rapid growth in consumer prices willyear – and the variation has taken place around a decreas- continue and erode purchasing power. Consumer pricesing trend. New orders received by the industrial sector, are expected to rise by 2.5% next year. The householdFinland: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted) 2009 (EURbn) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014EPrivate consumption 94 3.3 2.5 2.2 1.3 2.0Government consumption 43 -0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5Fixed investment 34 1.9 6.8 -3.2 0.6 3.8Stockbuilding* -2 0.5 1.1 -0.3 0.3 0.1Exports 64 7.5 2.6 -1.7 2.6 7.1Imports 62 6.9 5.7 -3.0 2.9 6.2GDP 3.3 2.7 0.8 1.2 2.8Nominal GDP (EURbn) 172.3 178.8 189.4 196.0 201.6 210.1Unemployment rate, % 8.4 7.8 7.7 8.0 7.9Industrial production, % y/y 8.3 0.9 -3.0 2.0 4.0Consumer prices, % y/y 1.2 3.4 3.0 2.5 2.3Hourly w ages, % y/y 2.6 2.7 3.5 3.0 3.0Current account (EURbn) 2.9 -2.2 -0.5 0.4 1.2 - % of GDP 1.6 -1.1 -0.2 0.2 0.6Trade balance (EURbn) 2.6 -1.2 -0.1 0.1 0.8 - % of GDP 1.4 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.4General govt budget balance (EURbn) -4.5 -1.2 -1.0 -0.1 1.0- % of GDP -2.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 0.5Gross public debt (EURbn) 90.0 93.0 99.0 104.1 108.4- % of GDP 50.3 49.1 50.5 51.6 51.6* Contribution to GDP growth (% points)14 ØKONOMISK PERSPEKTIV │SEPTEMBER 2011 NORDEA MARKETS
  14. 14. ■ Finlandsavings rate continues to decline which means that an in- Cooling of world trade brings problems to exportscreasing part of income is used for consumption. The ac-commodating monetary policy is well timed as the con-sumption outlook would be much gloomier without it.Investment to decline, employment to weakenThe bleak short-term outlook for exports, production andconsumption as well as the major uncertainty over theEuro area developments will eat away economic agentsconfidence and thus decrease willingness to invest andweaken employment prerequisites. Machinery andequipment investment increased sharply last year butturned down again already in the beginning of this year.The decline is expected to continue at least for the rest ofthis year. Construction investment is also expected to de- Weak sentiment points to an outright fall in GDPcline. The decrease in the number of granted constructionpermits indicates that the decline in residential and otherconstruction will continue and even steepen during thelatter part of the year. Reconstruction will compensatefor the decline in new construction.We expect both the traditional machinery and equipmentinvestment and construction investment to increase againin 2013. A precondition for this, however, is that theglobal economy will grow as forecast, the Euro area debtcrisis will clear up and confidence will return.The labour market has provided very positive surprisesthis year. Employment measured with the number ofpeople has not weakened (although the number of work- A decline in GDP is bad news for employmenting hours has probably started to decrease) and the num-ber of unemployed people has not started to increase.Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has stabilised at7.5% in recent months. The unemployment rate for 2012seems to remain at 7.7% (the previous forecast was8.0%), which is lower than in 2011. We still expect un-employment to increase, especially in 2013 with the un-employment rate rising to an average of 8%.Slower decrease in public sector deficitTax revenues will increase at a slower pace due to thesluggish economic growth, even though income taxationwill be tightened and value added tax will be raised. Thepublic sector deficit will, however, continue to decline.The deficit is estimated to decrease to 0.1% of GDP in Confidence + labour market = weak consumption2013 and turn into a small surplus in 2014. The govern-ments annual borrowing need will remain at EUR 4–6bnduring the forecast period, which will increase the publicdebt close to 52% of the value of total production alreadyin 2013.Pasi Sorjonenpasi.sorjonen@nordea.com +358 9 165 5994215 ØKONOMISK PERSPEKTIV │SEPTEMBER 2011 NORDEA MARKETS
  15. 15. ■ USAMoving slowly forward• If a perfect storm of fiscal chaos is avoided … After all, the economy’s fundamentals are much im- proved. Businesses are highly profitable, banks have re-• ... progress towards full employment in 2014 capitalised and the deleveraging process in the private• Stronger underlying inflation pressures set to emerge sector has come a long way. Still, households – especial- ly younger families – are likely to continue the process of• Fed to start tightening by mid-2014 balance sheet repair. Home prices seem to have bot- tomed, but the expected slow price increases provide lim-US economic growth is likely to remain moderate in the ited support to household net worth going forward.next few years through 2014, constrained by householddeleveraging, fiscal restraint, subpar global demand, In 2014 growth is expected to slow to a pace more in lineslower working-age population growth and a deteriora- with potential. Full employment, defined as an unem-tion of job skills. ployment rate of 7%, should be achieved in late 2014.The US economy clearly lost momentum during Q2 QE3 only in case of policy errors2012, but recent economic data paint a slightly brighter The effects of the drought in the Midwest on food com-picture, pointing towards GDP growth of 1½-2% in H2 modity prices and a rebound in oil prices are likely to2012. Stronger disposable income growth, easier finan- push headline inflation meaningfully higher by mid-cial conditions and bank lending standards, continued 2013.housing recovery, the end of the payback for the warmwinter weather and less drag from seasonal adjustment With the business cycle adjustment more or less com-distortions suggest that economic momentum will pick pleted in 2014, signs of stronger underlying inflationup slightly in the near term. pressures are projected to emerge in the latter part of the forecast horizon. As a result, we expect the Fed to startHowever, while the threat from the Euro-area crisis cur- raising policy rates and gradual unwind its securitiesrently appears less menacing, US fiscal challenges holdings around mid-2014.around the end of this year imply that risks to the US out-look over the next two to three quarters remain tilted to In the more immediate future, however, the Fed is likelythe downside. The probability of another US recession is later this month to postpone the expected first rate hikeuncomfortably high at 20-25%, in our view. from late 2014 to mid-2015. In our view, the central bank is currently overestimating the labour market slack andOn the other hand, an orderly resolution of the pending hence underestimating the longer-term risk of inflation.fiscal issues, as assumed in our baseline scenario, should Additional asset purchases (QE3) by the Fed are not ex-pave the way for stronger confidence and hence brighter pected unless the Euro-area crisis blows up again or ifeconomic prospects in 2013, when growth is projected to US policymakers fail to resolve the pending fiscal issuesexceed potential assumed at around 2% annually through in an orderly manner.most of the year.USA: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted) 2009 (USDbn) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014EPrivate consumption 9,845.9 1.8 2.5 1.9 2.0 2.1Government consumption and investment 2,967.2 0.6 -3.1 -2.0 -0.9 -0.3Private fixed investment 1,703.5 -0.2 6.6 9.4 6.9 6.9 - residential investment 354.2 -3.7 -1.4 11.7 9.4 12.4 - equipment and softw are 898.3 8.9 11.0 8.3 6.9 6.0 - non-residential structures 451.1 -15.6 2.8 10.2 4.5 3.5Stockbuilding* -154.2 1.5 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0Exports 1,587.5 11.1 6.7 4.3 5.2 5.3Imports 1,976.2 12.5 4.8 4.2 5.7 5.4GDP 2.4 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.2Nominal GDP (USDbn) 13,973.7 14,498.9 15,075.7 15,716.1 16,276.1 16,885.0Unemployment rate, % 9.6 9.0 8.1 7.7 7.3Industrial production, % y/y 5.4 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.3Consumer prices, % y/y 1.6 3.1 2.1 2.2 2.2Consumer prices ex. energy and food, % y/y 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.2Hourly earnings, % y/y 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.2Current account (USDbn) -442.0 -465.9 -471.5 -569.7 -506.5 - % of GDP -3.0 -3.1 -3.0 -3.5 -3.0Federal budget balance (USDbn) -1,293.5 -1,300.0 -1,100.0 -900.0 -700.0- % of GDP -8.9 -8.6 -7.0 -5.5 -4.1Gross public debt, % of GDP 95.2 99.5 106.5 112.0 116.2* Contribution to GDP growth (% points)16 ØKONOMISK PERSPEKTIV │SEPTEMBER 2011 NORDEA MARKETS
  16. 16. ■ USAA perfect storm of fiscal chaos hopefully avoided Moving slowly forwardThree US fiscal issues pose a threat to the economic out-look: the so-called fiscal cliff, another increase in theTreasury debt ceiling and the need for longer-term fiscalsustainability.As we approach the end of the year, attention will focuseven more sharply on the risk of the fiscal cliff – the un-fortunate coincidence of about USD 600bn in tax in-creases and spending cuts that will take effect next year,should Congress not act to change current law. Failure toscale back the fiscal cliff could knock as much as 4¼%off real GDP in 2013, enough to push the US economyback into recession. Moreover, the Treasury is likely tohit the debt ceiling again in December. Assuming it uses Slow progress towards full employment in late 2014the accounting strategies that have been employed in thepast, the Treasury seems likely to be able to finance gov-ernment operations under the current limit until some-time in February 2013, by which point Congress mustraise the debt ceiling. Failure to do so would imply de-fault on some of the US government’s obligations.With both political parties in full campaigning mode,none of these issues are likely to be resolved before thepresidential elections on 6 November. As seen too oftenduring the past two years, there will most likely be plentyof political brinkmanship and the accompanying uncer-tainty will probably come at a cost to the economy andthe financial markets later this year and in early 2013.The longer the uncertainty persists, the more likely it will Stronger underlying inflation pressures in 2014hurt confidence, hiring, investment and spending.However, our expectation is that when pressured by thethreat of another recession, policymakers will take actionto reduce the fiscal drag on growth (to around 0.5% ofGDP) either during the so-called lame duck session afterthe election or in January when the new governmenttakes office. Obviously, the outcome of the Novemberelections will be very crucial to how the fiscal debateplays out. In this context, the congressional election re-sults will be at least as important as who wins the WhiteHouse, Obama or Romney.Extending the otherwise expiring tax cuts and other eas-ing measures and repealing the automatic federal spend- Recession if economy is pushed off the fiscal cliffing cuts would significantly reduce the risk of recession, 1 1 % points Fiscal policy impact on GDP growth % pointsbut at the cost of a substantially larger budget deficit. 0 0Thus, with an extension of current policy federal debtheld by the public would rise from 70% of GDP today to -1 -1around 90% by 2022 compared to around 60% if current -2 -2law is not changed. In other words, apart from resolvingthe fiscal cliff issue and raising the debt ceiling policy- -3 -3makers will also soon have to address the need to restore -4 -4longer-term fiscal sustainability in order to shift the risk Current law Current policyto the economic outlook from negative to positive. -5 -5 2011 2012 2013 Source: Nordea Marktes, Congressional Budget Office and Office ofJohnny Bo Jakobsen Management and Budgetjohnny.jakobsen@nordea.com +45 3333 617817 ØKONOMISK PERSPEKTIV │SEPTEMBER 2011 NORDEA MARKETS
  17. 17. ■ Euro areaRestore confidence to end the recession• Gradual recovery from year-end Restoring confidence is key to recovery Why do we expect a recovery when numerous problems• Helped by smarter interventions remain unsolved and deleveraging has only just begun?• Significant downside risks to inflation Well, because we believe that decisions have been taken and will be taken in the coming months that are decisive• Spain heading for deeper recession and will help gradually restoring confidence in the Euro area. After all, monetary policy is extremely lenient, ex-The Euro area is in recession. The second quarter showed port markets are growing decently, the EUR is weaken-GDP contraction and the third quarter most likely will ing and even if more fiscal tightening will be needed intoo. We expect a recovery starting around year-end and a the years to come at least the pace of tightening will bevery gradual pick-up of momentum during 2013. In 2014 slower. Confidence is the missing ingredient that will al-growth will still be somewhat below the pre-crisis “nor- low these factors to work and pave the way for a verymal” level. gradual recovery.We have made a modest upward revision to growth this Restoring confidence takes more time than eroding it,year, but otherwise kept the Euro-area forecast roughly and we do not in any expect that the debt crisis is aboutunchanged compared with our May forecast revision. We to end. Solving the crisis requires massive deleveraginghave revised down our growth forecast for Spain in 2013 in the years to come, structural reforms, growth andafter the announcement of new austerity measures during building new credible institutions to prevent the samethe summer. kind of crisis from happening again. Restoring confi- dence also requires that Greece starts implementing theRecovery from year-end reforms agreed with the Troika.It is fair to say that signs of recovery have been scant upto this point. However, the most forward-looking indica- Interventions will work this timetors for growth in the Euro area as a whole have at least In terms of the decisive action, the ECB seems ready tostopped falling and stabilised at low levels. bring out Big Bertha – more or less the entire arsenal of instruments is being considered. We believe ECB inter-The contraction in Q2 was not as severe as one might ventions in the secondary market – done smarter thishave expected given the financial stress during that peri- time – combined with intervention in the primary marketod with Greek post-election chaos and a Spanish bank by the EFSF/ESM will reduce the level of stress in finan-bailout. Some lagged adverse impact on the economy is cial markets and help restore the confidence that is need-likely to be visible in the Q3 growth numbers, but we ex- ed to embark on a path to recovery.pect Q3 to mark the bottom of the current business cycle. When the ECB intervened through its old programme (the SMP) it did not work very well. Rather it reducedAnother reason that the Q2 numbers were not as bad as the incentive for eg Italy to do the right thing. Therefore,feared is Germany. German growth remained resilient interventions to reduce financial stress never becameduring the first half of the year driven to a large extent by credible. This time, the ECB will intervene with strictthe export sector and to some extent also the German conditionality – ie only in countries that have a bailoutconsumers. At present, the survey-based indicators point programme with promises to reduce budget deficits andto slightly negative growth in Germany in Q3.Euro area: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted) 2009 (EURbn) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014EPrivate consumption 5,128 0.9 0.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.3Government consumption 1,987 0.7 -0.3 0.2 -0.9 -0.8Fixed investments 1,735 -0.2 1.6 -3.0 1.1 2.4Stockbuilding* -48 0.7 0.3 -1.2 -0.1 0.5Exports 3,272 11.0 6.3 1.6 4.9 1.6Imports 3,155 9.4 4.1 -2.3 2.9 1.4Net exports* -0.8 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.0 0.2GDP 1.9 1.5 -0.4 0.6 1.7Nominal GDP, EUR bn 8,917 9,155 9,410 9,512 9,725 9,804Unemployment rate, % 10.1 10.2 11.3 11.6 10.6Industrial production, % y/y 4.3 2.7 -2.6 2.9 5.8Consumer prices, % y/y 1.6 2.7 2.2 1.6 1.6 - core inflation** 1.0 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.0Hourly earnings, % y/y 1.6 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1Current account, bn EUR -3.2 -1.1 33.1 21.0 17.0Current account, % of GDP 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0General government budget balance, % of GDP -6.2 -4.1 -3.7 -3.0 -2.5General government gross debt, % of GDP 85.3 87.2 90.9 93.9 96.4* Contribution to GDP growth (% points)18 ØKONOMISK PERSPEKTIV │SEPTEMBER 2011 NORDEA MARKETS

×