Presented case for process to predict Brian McCann and Ubaldo Jimenez's 2013 free agent contracts, both with and without the players having previously declined a Qualifying Offer, and adjusting contracts for both one extra year and one less year than predicted. Case was received 5 days before presentation date and teams were judged by executives from the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals, Philadelphia Phillies and Baseball Prospectus. Our process included our own statistical models for performance/playing time projections and aging curves for McCann and Jimenez, insights from scouting and Pitch f/x data, the empirical value of a win and the MLB free agent market as a whole, the potential suitors for the two players, the value of the draft pick lost per team when signing a Qualifying Offer free agent, and risk adjustments.

1. Presented by:
Preston Barclay, Kyle Franco, Camden Hu, Nikhil Oza, Xavier Weisenreder
November 22, 2013

2. Our Objective
•Forecast Ubaldo Jimenez and Brian McCann’s
actual contracts that they will receive in the
2013-14 offseason
•Explain our process in developing our forecasts:
• Performance Projection
• Player Performance and Projection to Monetary Value
• Comparing Market Factors of Previous Years to This Year
•Estimate the players’ contracts had they not
received a qualifying offer
•Assess how the length of the contract affects the
Average Annual Value (AAV) of the deal
2

3. Our Approach
•Investigate and conduct studies into the price of a
win ($/WAR) historically and moving forward
•Assess the value of the compensation pick
attached to qualifying offers
•Brian McCann and Ubaldo Jimenez forecasts
• Scouting
• Mathematical Regression Models with Hitting, Defense,
Baserunning, Playing Time, Aging, and Probabilities of Injury
and Position Change
• Player Intrinsic Value and Player Value by Team
• Effects of Potential Suitors on Contract
• Relationship between Contract Years and AAV
• Prediction
•Source Presentation and Question & Answer Session
3

4. Monetary Value of Player Performance:
MLB Payroll Inflation Estimates
•Best determination of growth rate (organization
revenue) unavailable, thus the utilization of team
payrolls.
•Ten-year (2004-13) average growth: 5.08%
•Sans recession years (2009 and 2011), growth:
6.45%
•Our conservative estimate for next five years: 5.50%
4

5. Monetary Value of Player Performance:
Payroll Inflation on Free Agent Expenditures
•Hypothesis: Free agent expenditures increase at
slightly higher rate than league payroll increases sans
recession.
• Results: Not a strong
correlation, but tenyear average of FA
expenditures similar
to league payroll –
4.85%
•Conclusion: League payroll growth rate (5.50%)
serves as an adequate predictor for overall free agent
market growth in 2013-14 offseason.
5

6. Monetary Value of Player Performance:
Empirical Research for Free Agent $ per WAR
•Fundamental question: How much does it cost to
acquire a win on the free agent market?
• Lewie Pollis’ research – 2008-13 average: $6,692,719
6

7. Monetary Value of Player Performance:
Empirical Research for Free Agent $ per WAR
What about players that require draft pick compensation?
• Projecting future $/WAR with
our growth rate of 5.50%:
7

8. Monetary Value of Player Performance:
MLB Win Curves
• Value of a win depends on franchise, market, where
on the win curve a team currently sits.
• Value increases for wins that have increased
leverage for playoff probability.
8
Gennaro, Vince. "Diamond Dollars: The Economics of Winning in Baseball (Part 1)." The Hardball Times.

9. Monetary Value of Player Performance:
MLB Win Curves
9

10. Monetary Value of Player Performance:
MLB Win Curves
10

11. Monetary Value of Player Performance:
MLB Win Curves
11

12. Monetary Value of Player Performance:
MLB Win Curves
12

13. Qualifying Offer:
Calculating the Value of a Draft Pick
•Methodology
•Sample: All first round and supplemental first
round picks from ten drafts from 1995 to 2004.
•Average of each pick’s WAR in each of their
first seven years.
•Fit a logarithmic regression to project each
pick’s WAR in each of the years.
•Assume $7,048,721/WAR in 2013 and growth
of 5.50% per year in the future.
•Assume the picks from 2014 draft reach the
Major Leagues in 2017.
13

14. Qualifying Offer:
Calculating the Value of a Draft Pick
•Assume salary of picks in each year to be:
•Subtract the salary of the picks from their values
to get the surplus of the picks in each season.
•Discount the surplus in 2017-23 using the growth
rate of 5.50%.
•Subtract the draft slot assigned to each pick
selection to obtain the net value of each of the
first 50 picks in the 2014 draft.
14

15. Qualifying Offer:
Calculating the Value of a Draft Pick
Net Value of Each Pick versus Pick Number
$60,000,000
$50,000,000
$40,000,000
$30,000,000
$20,000,000
$10,000,000
$0
0
10
20
30
40
Average of Picks 11-40 = $12,400,523
15
50
60

16. Value of Compensation Pick:
Improving Prospect Prediction over Time
Source: Ball, Andrew. "2013 MLB Draft: How Valuable Are Draft Picks? - Beyond the Box Score." Beyond the Box Score.
16

17. Value of Compensation Pick:
Improving Prospect Prediction over Time
Source: Ball, Andrew. "2013 MLB Draft: How Valuable Are Draft Picks? - Beyond the Box Score." Beyond the Box Score.
17

18. Forecasting Brian McCann’s Contract:
Scouting Brian McCann – Pitch Framing
18

19. Forecasting Brian McCann’s Contract:
Scouting Brian McCann – Pitch Framing
19

20. Forecasting Brian McCann’s Contract:
Variable Value of Framing re: Pitching Staff
• Different pitchers throw different pitches in
different locations
• Different catchers could be more or less skilled
at framing different pitches/locations
• Therefore, value of framing is variable
depending on pitching staff repertoire
• McCann great at snapping wrist inside zone – 2
seam fastball running in on righties, away from
lefties, largely benefitting Tim Hudson
20

21. Forecasting Brian McCann’s Contract:
Uncertainty in Game-calling & Pitch-sequencing
• What is the value of Game-calling/Pitchsequencing?
• Entirely reflected in Pitcher WAR values
• Massive amount of uncertainty: +/- 2-3
WAR per year?
• Anecdotal evidence says McCann is probably
positive
21

22. Forecasting Brian McCann’s Contract:
Catcher Hitting WAR Aging Curve
• Catchers tend to have less
batting regression as they
get older, this is probably
due to the fact that they
are, on average, less
valuable as hitters, and
therefore have less
regression to the mean.
• Brian McCann is not ―most
catchers,‖ however, and
has consistently been a
very good hitter so we used
the all-hitter curve as our
age curve for Hitting WAR.
22
0
29
31
33
35
37
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
All Player Batting
Catcher Batting

23. Forecasting Brian McCann’s Contract:
Other Contributing WAR Factors
• Double Play WAR has very little
significant variance as a player gets
older. Therefore, for McCann, we set
his RAA for a double play as a
constant value of the average of his
career so far.
• Base-Running WAR has a very
small, linear decrease, so we found
the regression equation for the line,
as used the coefficient (.2007) as a
constant decrease for every year
older
• Defensive WAR was found using a
regression of all Catcher’s previous
Runs Saved By Passed Pitches,
and Stolen Base Runs saved from
year to year
0
29
33
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1
-1.2
BR
-1.4
DP
-1.6
Linear (BR)
-1.8
23
31
-2
35
37

24. Forecasting Brian McCann’s Contract:
Future Position Change
• There is a very strong
possibility that
McCann will play less
catcher (and play 1B or
DH instead) as his
career progresses,
greatly reducing his
Position WAR
• To account for this, we
have included a
percentage of Plate
Appearances as
catcher, in order to more
exactly pinpoint his
Position WAR year to
year
24
%GS as Catcher
0.96
0.94
0.92
0.9
0.88
0.86
0.84
0.82
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
• Based on his history of GS%
as catcher, we can start his
percentage at around 90%,
and then, after finding no pure
mathematical models we
have subjectively decided to
reduce the percent by 5% for
each additional year.

25. Forecasting Brian McCann’s Contract:
First Year Value
• Using a regression of hitters over 300 PA during consecutive seasons
from 1995-2013 on predicting Runs Above Average, with
BB%, SO%, ISO, BABIP, and HR per plate appearances.
• Using our regression equations, we were able to use McCann’s history in
these categories in order to come up with a model to determine his
values in these five categories.
• BB%: 9.69%
• K%: 16.70%
• ISO: 0.179
• BABIP: 0.274
• HR/PA: 0.04092
• From these values, we were able to come up with the 2014 Value for
McCann’s RAA: 5.389
• All other First Year Value WAR components were either made from a
direct regression in a similar way (defWar), or were constants found from
analyzing hitter Aging Curves (Double Play, and Base-Running)
25

26. Forecasting Brian McCann’s Contract:
Valuation of Brian McCann (without QO)
McCann Future WAR Projection, Year By Year
Age
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
Year
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
PA
487.00
506.41
505.57
497.82
487.56
476.26
464.39
452.12
Percent
of Games
Base
As
Running Double
Catcher Bat RAA
RAA
Play RAA
0.90
5.39
-3.56
-1.23
0.85
4.08
-3.76
-1.23
0.80
2.62
-3.96
-1.23
0.75
1.02
-4.16
-1.23
0.70
-0.73
-4.36
-1.23
0.65
-2.62
-4.56
-1.23
0.60
-4.66
-4.76
-1.23
0.55
-6.84
-4.96
-1.23
Defense
RAA
1.16
1.19
1.15
1.09
1.04
0.99
0.93
0.88
Total Replacemant
Position RAA RAA
Addition
RAR WAR
7.71
9.46
16.23
25.70 2.57
6.75
7.02
16.88
23.90 2.39
5.48
4.06
16.85
20.91 2.09
4.15
0.87
16.59
17.46 1.75
2.84
-2.43
16.25
13.82 1.38
1.59
-5.84
15.88
10.04 1.00
0.39
-9.34
15.48
6.14 0.61
-0.75
-12.92
15.07
2.15 0.22
Projecting expected WAR into a Contract
26
Year of
Contract
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
Age
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
Year
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
WAR
2.57
2.39
2.09
1.75
1.38
1.00
0.61
0.22
$ Per
WAR
7.79
8.22
8.67
9.15
9.65
10.18
10.74
11.33
Worth
that Year
20.02
19.65
18.13
15.97
13.34
10.22
6.60
2.44
Total
Contract
20.02
39.67
57.80
73.78
87.11
97.33
103.93
106.37
AAV
20.02
19.83
19.27
18.44
17.42
16.22
14.85
13.30
Using Pitch Frame
Pitch
Frame RAA
12.234
12.548
12.173
11.63
11.045
10.453
9.863
9.2824
New RAR
37.930917
36.452336
33.08169
29.090408
24.86399
20.488655
16.006717
11.436162
New
WAR
3.79309
3.64523
3.30817
2.90904
2.4864
2.04887
1.60067
1.14362

27. Forecasting Brian McCann’s Contract:
Valuation of Brian McCann (without QO)
• Right to extend own qualifying offer and likelihood of acquiring
compensatory future pick with short deals (adjust up)
• More variability/risk with long-term deals (adjust down)
Breakdown of WAR to various contracts:
Year of
Contract
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
•
•
•
•
•
•
27
Age
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
Year
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
WAR
2.57
2.39
2.09
1.75
1.38
1.00
0.61
0.22
$ Per
WAR
7.79
8.22
8.67
9.15
9.65
10.18
10.74
11.33
Worth
that Year
20.02
19.65
18.13
15.97
13.34
10.22
6.60
2.44
Total
Contract
20.02
39.67
57.80
73.78
87.11
97.33
103.93
106.37
AAV
20.02
19.83
19.27
18.44
17.42
16.22
14.85
13.30
2 Year Contract - $44 Million, $22MM AAV
3 Year Contract - $56 Million, $18.67MM AAV
4 Year Contract - $66 Million, $16.5MM AAV
5 Year Contract - $75 Million, $15MM AAV
6 Year Contract - $82 Million, $13.67MM AAV
7 Year Contract - $86 Million, $12.29MM AAV

28. Forecasting Brian McCann’s Contract:
Potential Suitors, Market for Catchers in ‘14
• Two FA Catchers to set the market – McCann and
Saltalamacchia
• Potential Suitors gain critical high-leverage Wins
• Value of Framing has not been significantly
reflected in market for Free Agents
28

29. Forecasting Brian McCann’s Contract:
Valuation of Brian McCann (With QO)
• Value of Draft Picks for McCann’s Market
pushes McCann’s Free Agency potential down
significantly (~$5-10MM)
• We used $6MM, as there is very high variance
with draft picks and teams would rather win
now
•
•
•
•
•
•
29
2 Year Contract - $38 Million, $19MM AAV
3 Year Contract - $50 Million, $16.67MM AAV
4 Year Contract - $60 Million, $15MM AAV
5 Year Contract - $69 Million, $13.8MM AAV
6 Year Contract - $76 Million, $12.67MM AAV
7 Year Contract - $80 Million, $11.43MM AAV

30. Forecasting Brian McCann’s Contract:
Our Prediction
• 3 Year Contract - $50 Million, $16.67MM AAV
• 4 Year Contract - $60 Million, $15MM AAV
• 5 Year Contract - $69 Million, $13.8MM AAV
30

31. Forecasting Ubaldo Jimenez’s Contract:
Scouting Ubaldo Jimenez – Pitch Frequencies
31

32. Forecasting Ubaldo Jimenez’s Contract:
Scouting Ubaldo Jimenez – Pitch Frequencies
32

33. Forecasting Ubaldo Jimenez’s Contract:
Scouting Ubaldo Jimenez – Pitch Frequencies
33

34. Forecasting Ubaldo Jimenez’s
Contract:
Irrelevance of First/Second Half Splits
• Pre All-Star Break ERA and FIP:
• Post All-Star Break ERA and FIP:
4.56
1.82
4.50
2.17
• Adjusted for opponent hitters’ FIP components (BB%,
K%, HR%) no difference
• Consistent pitch frequencies Pre ASB and Post ASB
• Scouting: Lagging and slower arm action with
current mechanics forces more stress on the
shoulder and elbow on breaking pitches.
34

35. Forecasting Ubaldo Jimenez’s
Contract:
Aging Curve
• Historic difference in RAA
from year to year by age.
• Looking at the ―all ages
curve,‖ it is clear early
values suffer from sample
bias (only top players
play at age 21, 22, 23)
• Therefore, we looked at
the curve for just 30-37
year olds, in order to
more accurately project
the change in Jimenez’s
pitching effectiveness as
he ages.
RAA All Ages
10
0
21
31
36
RAA
-20
Poly. (RAA)
-30
-40
-50
RAA Looking At Age 30-37
0
-5
29
31
33
35
37
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
35
26
-10
RAA
Poly. (RAA)

36. Forecasting Ubaldo Jimenez’s Contract:
Aging Curve
• Similarly to our Batting WAR projections for McCann, before we apply
the aging curve, we had to find a projection for the current Pitching
Runs Above Average by calculating the expected values of the
components of Pitching WAR
• Ran a regression for each component on the previous values of that
component from using past data from consecutive pitcher seasons
• Through this regression, we were able to predict the following values
for Jimenez’s 2014 season.
• FB% - 35.70%
• HR/FB - 10.47%
• K% - 21.98%
• BB% - 9.80%
• BABIP - 0.30089219
• LOB% - 0.7194523
• This totals to a predicted RAA value of -.08
36

37. Forecasting Ubaldo Jimenez’s
Contract:
Playing Time: Starts and Innings Pitched
• Starts and Innings Pitched need to be
determined to both project future as a starter
and determine his Replacement WAR
• We ran regressions on both GS and IP (from
qualifying pitchers in a given year)
• Significant variables: ERA last year, GS last
year, IP last year  predictive values for GS
and IP year to year
• The further that Ubaldo ages, the less he
projects as a starting pitcher, the more he
projects as a reliever
37

38. Forecasting Ubaldo Jimenez’s Contract:
Potential Suitors, Market for SP in ‘14
• Masahiro Tanaka set to be posted
• No clear top-flight pitcher on the market, many similar
options
• Lots of teams could use starting pitching help
38

39. Forecasting Ubaldo Jimenez’s
Contract:
Valuation of Ubaldo Jimenez (Without QO)
Year in
Contract
Season
GS
IP
ERA
RAA
RR
RAR
WAR $ Per WAR Year Value
Total
Contract
AAV
1st.
2014
29.64
163.37
3.88
-0.18
20.42
20.24
2.02
7.85
15.88
15.88
15.88
2nd.
2015
24.51
137.24
4.11
-3.72
17.15
13.43
1.34
8.28
11.12
27.00
13.50
3rd.
2016
19.43
112.86
4.47
-7.53
14.11
6.57
0.66
8.73
5.74
32.74
10.91
4th
2017
13.86
87.35
5.06
-11.56
10.92
-0.64
-0.06
9.21
-0.59
32.15
8.04
5th.
2018
6.93
56.27
6.39
-15.73
7.03
-8.70
-0.87
9.72
-8.45
23.70
4.74
6th.
2019
-4.23
6.17
33.03
-19.99
0.77
-19.22
-1.92
10.25
-19.71
3.99
0.67
7th.
2020
-126.32
-569.59
3.49
-24.27
-71.20
-95.47
-9.55
10.82
-103.28
-99.28
-14.18
8th.
2021
-97.97
-405.29
3.24
-28.51
-50.66
-79.18
-7.92
11.41
-90.36
-189.64
-23.71
• 1 Year Contract – $15.50 Million, $15.50MM AAV
• 2 Year Contract – $25.00 Million, $12.50MM AAV
• 3 Year Contract – $29.00 Million, $9.67MM AAV
39
After the third year, Jimenez is projected to have a
negative WAR value, and it is thus unlikely that he
would still be a starting pitcher.

40. Forecasting Ubaldo Jimenez’s Contract:
Valuation of Ubaldo Jimenez (With QO)
• Value of Draft Picks for Jimenez’s Market pushes
his Free Agency potential down (~$4-8MM)
• We used $5MM, as there is very high variance with
draft picks and teams would rather win now
• 1 Year Contract – $10.50 Million, $10.50MM AAV
• 2 Year Contract – $20.00 Million, $10.00MM AAV
• 3 Year Contract – $24.00 Million, $8.00MM AAV
40

41. Forecasting Ubaldo Jimenez’s Contract:
Our Prediction
• 1 Year Contract – $10.50 Million, $10.00MM AAV
• 2 Year Contract – $20.00 Million, $10.00MM AAV
• 3 Year Contract – $24.00 Million, $8.00MM AAV
41

42. Summary
• $/WAR going forward, variance in Hitter $/WAR vs.
Pitcher $/WAR
• Variance/uncertainty in projections
• Value of a win for different franchises in different
years
• Draft pick valuation effect on Qualifying Offer FAs
• McCann will get long-term, multi-year deal
• Uncertainty because of value of game-calling/pitchsequencing, variable value of framing
• Jimenez will get a much smaller and shorter deal
• Roughly league average pitcher
• Pitchers are extremely risky
42

43. Further Considerations
• Always use more data
• Adjust Aging Curves for only players who entered
league at 22, 23, … etc.
• Reliever Value – High Leverage Innings vs. Low
Leverage Innings, Low Run Environment vs. High
Run Environment
• Empirical estimation of McCann’s likelihood to
move to 1B/DH
• Probability that a draft pick does not resign (~5%),
resulting in protected pick one slot lower next year
• Adjust McCann’s framing value for each potential
pitching staff
• Adjust Jimenez’s ―pitching value‖ for each potential
catcher
43

44. Further Considerations
• Predict Years, AAV, Total from previous production
for all top Free Agents, top Free Agent Hitters, and
top Free Agent Pitchers with much more data
• Incorporate other prediction models
• Simulations of probability distributions instead of
averages
• Value of McCann’s contribution to Roster Flexibility
44

45. Conclusions
Brian McCann
Ubaldo Jimenez
No Qualifying Offer:
• 3 Year Contract - $56 Million,
$18.67MM AAV
• 4 Year Contract - $66 Million,
$16.5MM AAV
• 5 Year Contract - $75 Million,
$15MM AAV
• 1 Year Contract – $15.50 Million,
$15.50MM AAV
• 2 Year Contract – $25.00 Million,
$12.50MM AAV
• 3 Year Contract – $29.00 Million,
$9.67MM AAV
Qualifying Offer:
• 3 Year Contract - $50 Million,
$16.67MM AAV
• 4 Year Contract - $60 Million,
$15MM AAV
• 5 Year Contract - $69 Million,
$13.8MM AAV
45
• 1 Year Contract – $10.50 Million,
$10.00MM AAV
• 2 Year Contract – $20.00 Million,
$10.00MM AAV
• 3 Year Contract – $24.00 Million,
$8.00MM AAV

46. Sources & Questions
Key Research Websites (Statistical Databases):
•
•
•
•
•
Baseball Reference (baseball-reference.com)
Beyond the Box Score (beyondtheboxscore.com)
Brooks Baseball (brooksbaseball.net)
Fangraphs (fangraphs.com)
Stat Corner (statcorner.com) – Catcher Framing
Articles:
•
•
•
•
•
46
Ball, Andrew. "2013 MLB Draft: How Valuable Are Draft Picks? - Beyond the Box Score." Beyond the Box
Score. SB Nation, 25 June 2013. Web. 21 Nov. 2013.
<http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/6/25/4457048/2013-mlb-draft-how-valuable-are-draft-picks>.
Gennaro, Vince. "Diamond Dollars: The Economics of Winning in Baseball (Part 1)." The Hardball Times.
N.p., 22 Mar. 2007. Web. 21 Nov. 2013. <http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/diamond-dollars-theeconomics-of-winning-in-baseball-part-1/>.
Loftus, Stephen. "Adjusting Components for Pitcher Opposition - Beyond the Box Score." Beyond the Box
Score. SB Nation, 8 Nov. 2013. Web. 21 Nov. 2013.
<http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/11/8/5080680/adjusting-components-for-pitcher-opposition-2013matt-harvey-max-scherzer-FIP-WAR-sabermetrics>.
Pollis, Lewie. "How Much Does a Win Really Cost?" Beyond the Box Score. SB Nation, 15 Oct. 2013. Web.
21 Nov. 2013. <http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/10/15/4818740/how-much-does-a-win-reallycost>.
Sarris, Eno. "Hitters Age Like Wine — Power Like Cheese? | FanGraphs Baseball." Fangraphs. N.p., 12
Jan. 2013. Web. 21 Nov. 2013. <http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hitters-age-like-wine-power-like-cheese/>.