Shaping The Future

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Future Objectives
•Managing business uncertainty may involve introducing, developing and implementing Strategic Enterprise Management Frameworksfor the following subject areas –
–Corporate Foresight and Business Strategy Framework
–Business Planning and Forecasting Framework
–Business Transformation Framework
–Programme Management Framework
–Enterprise Architecture Framework
–Enterprise Risk Management Framework
–Enterprise Performance Management Framework
–Enterprise Governance, Reporting and Controls Framework
–Social Enterprise Architecture and Triple Bottom Line Framework
•This paper describes an approach fprintroducing, developing and implementing such Strategic Enterprise Management Frameworks

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Shaping The Future

  1. 1. Enterprise Architecture – Future Landscape Envisioning Foresight – Strategy & Planning – Future Landscape – Advisory Consulting EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework v.10.0 La fortune favorise les audacieux….. le changement les faveurs que le puits a préparées.
  2. 2. EA-envision Sources Strategic Enterprise Foresight – Strategy & Planning – EA-envision™ Management Framework Future Architecture Landscape ™ Strategic Analysis Five Visions of the Future™ Technology Futures™ Framework Futures Framework Thinking About the Future™ Peter Bishop and Andy Hines University of Houston in Texas™ Eltville Model Five Views of the Future™ Future Management Group™ Horizon Scanning 21 Drivers for the 21st Century™ Outsights™ Applied Future Studies Infinite Futures Wendy Schultz Transhumanism Natasha Vita-More Extropy Institute, President Cultural Strategist Futurist Arts & Culture, Founder Brainstorming Advanced 'Kaleidoscope Businessballs.com Brainstorming'© technique Massive Change The Massive Change Project Bruce Mau Design and the Institute Without Boundaries Foresight and Precognition The Sixth Sense Kees Van der Heijden Precognition Jeffry Palmer Precognition: Sensing the Future Rita Berkowitz, Deborah S. Romaine EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  3. 3. Futurology Organisations EA-envision • Established Management • Established Foresight, Planned and Consultancies with Foresight Practices Managed Futures Consultancies – Booze & Co – Kate Thomas & Kleyn Future Management – The Boston Group – Outsights – AT Kearney – Technology Futures Inc. (TFI) – Arthur D. Little • Emerging Futures and Horizon Scanning – McKinsey Consultancies - challengers – Monitor – Core UK – Roland Berger – The Structure Group (TSG) • Niche / Boutique Futurology • Futurology Associations and Institutes Consultancies – rising stars – Association of Professional; Futurists (APF) – Fast Future – Extropy Institute – Foresight Consulting – The European Futures Conference – future directions GmbH – The European Futures Observatory – futurestudies – Global Foresight Network – Future Management Group – Institute Without Boundaries – Future Trends – Shaping Tomorrow - The Foresight Network – Infinite Futures – The Institute for the Future – Leading Futurists – Strategic Foresight Network – Strategic Foresight Consultancy – ZUKUNFTSINSTITUT – Sutherland Consulting – ZUKUNFTSFORSCHUNG – The Futures Group – ZUKUNFTSMANAGEMENTS EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  4. 4. EA-envision Future Objectives • It has long been recognised that one of the most important competitive factors for any organization to master is the management of uncertainty. Uncertainty is the major intangible factor contributing towards the risk of failure in every process, at every level, in every type of business: - – Corporate Foresight and Business Strategy – M&A Integration and Business Restructuring – Business Planning and Forecasting – Strategic Finance and Investment – Business Transformation – Programme Management – Enterprise Architecture – Enterprise Risk Management – Enterprise Performance Management – Enterprise Governance, Reporting and Controls – Social Enterprise Architecture and Triple Bottom Line Management EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  5. 5. EA-envision Future Objectives • Managing business uncertainty may involve introducing, developing and implementing Strategic Enterprise Management Frameworks for the following subject areas – – Corporate Foresight and Business Strategy Framework – Business Planning and Forecasting Framework – Business Transformation Framework – Programme Management Framework – Enterprise Architecture Framework – Enterprise Risk Management Framework – Enterprise Performance Management Framework – Enterprise Governance, Reporting and Controls Framework – Social Enterprise Architecture and Triple Bottom Line Framework • This paper describes an approach fpr introducing, developing and implementing such Strategic Enterprise Management Frameworks EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  6. 6. EA-envision Future Objectives • Our mission is to deliver a set of products which are free-to-use at point of distribution (starter pack) that makes managing the Future much more accessible to future stakeholders (everyone…..) This may include (but is not restricted to) some or all of the following: - • Future Starter Pack • Future Framework – Introduction – Advanced Methods & Techniques – Basic Methods & Techniques – Guidelines and Best Practice • Futures Studies • Future Governance – Future Paradigms – Principles and Policies – Prediction and Futurology – Approaches and Standards – Strategists versus Futurists • Future Toolkit – Foresight – Enterprise Modelling – Forecasting • (e.g. Aris, Computas from Metis) – Horizon Scanning – Visualisation Tools – Risk Management • (e.g. Visual Paradigm) – Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis – Repository Tools – Master Plan and Future Roadmap • (e.g. Adaptive) • Future Resources – Planning / Simulation Tools • (e.g. PlanView, PlanningIT) – Templates – Statistical Analysis – Monte Carlo – CHAID – Reference Models – Analytics – Goal-seeking – Scenarios – Collaboration, Futures Organisations, Networking. & Knowledge Management – Data Mining – Propensity Modelling EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  7. 7. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework 1. Strategic Enterprise Management Frameworks 6. Business Strategy Development 1.1 SEM Framework Design and Development 6.1 Business Innovation 1.2 SEM Framework Deployment and Implementation 6.2 Technology Innovation 2. Foresight Approaches and Methods 6.3 Strategy Discovery 2.1. Future Study Domain - Framing and Scoping 6.4 Strategy Development 2.2. Horizon Scanning and Delphi Oracle 6.5 Enterprise Performance Strategy 2.3. Strategic Envisioning and Predictive Models 6.6 Business Transformation Strategy 2.4. Possible Futures and Alternative Futures 2.5. Preferred Futures and Desired Outcomes 7. Current / Future Business Models 2.6. Strategic Forecasting and Planning 7.1 Operational Model - Process Execution, Integration & 2.7. Managed Futures Implementation and Execution Orchestration, Collaboration, Workgroups & Workflow 3. Foresight Tools & Techniques 7.2 Tactical Model - Analysis, Reporting and Communication 3.1. Trend / Extrapolation Analysis 7.3 Strategic Model - Command, Control and Co-ordination 3.2. Precursor / Pattern Analysis 8. Enterprise Performance Management 3.3. Scenario / Goal Analysis 8.1. Critical Success Factors 3.4. Outsights 21 Drivers for the 21st Century 8.2. Key Performance Indicators 3.5. Game Theory / Monte Carlo Simulation 8.3. Business Metrics 3.6. Boston Group Matrix / Five Forces / SWOT Analysis 3.7. Threat Assessment / Risk Management 9. Business Transformation 3.8. Data Mining / Statistical Analysis 9.1. Business Transition Planning 4. Future Enterprise Architecture Blueprint 9.2. Business Process Management 4.1. Business Landscape Envisioning 9.3. Business Programme Planning 4.2. Application Landscape Envisioning 9.4. Business Change Management 4.3. Technology Landscape Envisioning 9.5. Organization Management 4.4. Business Roadmap Planning 9.6. Human Resource Management 4.5. Application Roadmap Planning 10. Business Programme Management 4.6. Technology Roadmap Planning 10.1. Benefits Realisation Strategy 4.7 Business Architecture Blueprint 4.7.1. Organisation Architecture Blueprint 10.2. Communications Strategy 4.7.2. Process Architecture Blueprint 10.3. Stakeholder Management Strategy 4.7.3. Data Architecture Blueprint 11. Enterprise Portfolio Management 4.7.4. Information Architecture Blueprint 11.1. Project Portfolio Management 4.8. Application Architecture Blueprint 11.2. Application Portfolio Management 4.9. Infrastructure Architecture Blueprint 11.3. Technology Portfolio Management 4.10. Architecture Visualisation, Scenarios and Simulation 5. Publish Current / Future Business Master Plan 12. Publish Current / Future Enterprise Architecture
  8. 8. EA-envision Futures Studies Framework Futures Studies Political Economic Ethnographic & Environmental Science & Strategic Sociology and Science and Futures Demographic Futures Technology Foresight Human Futures Policy Futures Futures Horizons Human Identity. Science and Society Foundations, History History and Culture Futures and Philosophy of Political Science Economic Theory Demographics Earth Sciences 12. Outsights 17. Outsights Prediction Identity Science and Society Future Frameworks, Economic Planning Religion, Values and Bio-Technology and Paradigms, Methods Policy Studies and Strategy Beliefs Psychographics Life Sciences Medical Science & Techniques Future Strategy, Urbanisation and the Philosophy and Sustainability and Sustainability and Planning, Governance, Law Growth of Cities Ethical Studies Ethnographics Renewable Renewable Forecasting, and Order 21. Outsights Resources (1) Resources (2) Modelling & Analysis Urbanisation Peace and Conflict Shaping the Future - Corporate Finance Nano-Technology Studies Psychology and Global Massive Planned and and Strategic Biographics and 1. Outsights War, Patterns of Behaviour Change Managed Outcomes Investment Artificial Intelligence Terrorism, Security Financial Markets Transhumanism Threat Assessment & Information and Military Science and Traded The Arts Risk Management Communication Instruments Natasha Vita-Moore Innovation and Business Communications and Weapons and Entrepreneurial Administration Media Studies Countermeasures Studies Futures Collaboration Networking & Cosmology and Knowledge Space Science Management
  9. 9. Futures Studies Framework Primary Futures Disciplines (27) Secondary Futures Specialties (27) Futures Studies History and Analysis of Prediction Alternative Futures Critical and Evidence-Based Thinking Future Foundations and Foresight Frameworks Probabilistic (Statistical) Prediction Planning and Strategy (foundation & advanced) Forecasting and Modelling (foundation and advanced) Ethnographic / Demographic Futures Geo-demographic Profiling and Actuarial Science Strategic Foresight Threat Assessment and Risk Management Scenario Analysis Scenario Development and Back-casting Market Analysis and Prediction Corporate Finance and Long-Term / Strategic Investment Environmental / Horizon Scanning Geography, Sociology, Demographics and Social Change Pattern Analysis and Extrapolation Urban and Long-Range Infrastructure Planning Science and Technology Futures Studies Innovation and Entrepreneurship Studies Systems and Technology Trends Analysis Cross Impact and Pattern Analysis Environment, Ecology and Sustainability Studies Future Landscape Envisioning. Planning and Mapping Emerging Issues / Technology Trends Analysis Preferential Surveys / Polls and Market Research Knowledge Management and Decision Support Collaboration, Facilitation Predictive Envisioning Intuition and Pre-cognition Development and Acceleration Studies Linear Systems Studies Massive Global Change Complex Systems, Chaos Theory, Human Impact Analysis Critical Futures and Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Peace and Conflict Studies, Military Science Cognitive and Positive Psychology Personal Futures / Foresight Development Foresight, Intuition and Pre-cognition Predictive Surveys / Delphi Oracle Political Science and Policy Studies Leadership Studies, Religious Studies (Future Beliefs) Ethics of Emerging Technology Studies Socially Responsible / Triple Bottom Line Management Sociology, Philosophy and Evolution Studies Trans-humanism, Ethics and Values Studies Integral Studies and Future Thinking Weak Signals and Wildcards Visioning, Intuition, and Creativity Utopian and Dystopian Literature, Film & Arts Bio-Technology and Quantum Science Science Fiction and Images of the Future
  10. 10. Futures Discovery Foresight – Strategy & Planning – Future Landscape – Advisory Consulting EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework Après la tempête c'est calme….. plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. “Take hold of your future - or your future will take hold of you…..” (Patrick Dixon - Futurewise. 2005)
  11. 11. EA-envision The Management of Uncertainty • It has long been recognized that one of the most important competitive factors for any organization to master is the management of uncertainty. • Uncertainty is the major intangible factor contributing towards the risk of failure in every process, at every level, in every type of business. • Managing business uncertainty may involve introducing, developing and implementing strategic enterprise management frameworks for – – Corporate Foresight and Business Strategy – Business Planning and Forecasting – Business Transformation – Enterprise Architecture – Enterprise Risk Management – Enterprise Performance Management – Enterprise Governance, Reporting and Controls EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  12. 12. EA-envision Futures Studies • Futures Studies, Foresight, or Futurology is the practice and art of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures . Futures studies (colloquially called "Futures" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is novel. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future events and trends. • Futures is an interdisciplinary curriculum, studying yesterday's and today's changes, and aggregating and analyzing both lay and professional strategies, bets and opinions with respect to tomorrow. It includes analyzing the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in the attempt to develop foresight and to map possible futures. • Around the world the field is variously referred to as futures studies, strategic foresight, futurology, futuristics, futures thinking, futuring, futuribles (in France, the latter is also the name of the important 20th century foresight journal published only in French), and prospectiva (in Spain and Latin America). Futures studies (and one of its sub-disciplines, strategic foresight) are the academic field's most commonly used terms in the English-speaking world.
  13. 13. EA-envision Foresight • In Futures Studies, the term " Foresight" embraces: - – Critical thinking concerning long-term policy development, – Debate and consultation to create wider stakeholder participation, – Shaping the future - by influencing public policy and strategic direction • Foresight is being applied to strategic activities in the public as well as the private sector, and underlines the need to link every activity or project with any kind of future dimension to action today in order to make a planned, integrated future impact (“shaping the future”). • Foresight differs from much futures research and strategic planning. It encompasses a range of approaches that combine the three components mentioned above, which may be recast as: - – futures (forecasting, forward thinking, perspectives), – planning (strategic analysis, priority setting), and – networking (participatory, dialogic) tools and orientations. • Much futures research has been academic, but Foresight programmes were designed to influence policy - often R&D policy. Much technology policy had been very elitist; Foresight attempts to go beyond the normal bounds and gather widely distributed intelligence
  14. 14. EA-envision Foresight • Foresight draws on traditions of work in long-range forecasting and strategic planning, horizontal policymaking and democratic planning, horizon scanning and futures studies - but was also highly influenced by systemic approaches to innovation studies, global design, science and technology policy, and analysis of "critical technologies“ and “cultural evolution". • Many of the methods that are commonly associated with Foresight - Delphi surveys, scenario workshops, etc. - derive from the futures field. So does the fact that Foresight is concerned with: - – The longer-term - futures that are usually at least 10 years away (though there are some exceptions to this, especially in its use in private business). Since Foresight is action-oriented (the planning link) it will rarely be oriented to perspectives beyond a few decades out (though where decisions like aircraft design, power station construction or other major infrastructural decisions are concerned, then the planning horizon may well be half a century). – Alternative futures: it is helpful to examine alternative paths of development, not just what is currently believed to be most likely or business as usual. Often Foresight will construct multiple scenarios. These may be an interim step on the way to creating what may be known as positive visions, success scenarios, aspirational futures. Sometimes alternative scenarios will be a major part of the output of Foresight work, with the decision about what fuure to build being left to other mechanisms.
  15. 15. EA-envision Strategic Foresight • Strategic Foresight is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in useful organisational ways. For example to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy, and to explore new markets, products and services. It represents a fusion of futures methods with those of strategic management (Slaughter (1999), p.287). • Strategic Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are determined via Strategic Foresight and are defined by design, planning and management - so that the future becomes realistic and achievable. Possible futures may comply with our preferred options - and therefore our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes could thus be fulfilled – Positivism – articulating a single, preferred vision of the future. The future will conform to our preferred options - thus our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes will be fulfilled. – Futurism – assessing possible, probable and alternative futures – selecting those futures offering conditions that best fit our strategic goals and objectives for achieving a preferred and desired future. Filtering for a more detailed analysis may be achieved by discounting isolated outliers and focusing upon those closely clustered future descriptions which best support our desired future outcomes, goals and objectives. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  16. 16. Strategic Foresight Framework EA-envision
  17. 17. EA-envision Forecasting • Forecasting is the process of estimation in unknown situations. Prediction is a similar, but more general term. Both can refer to estimation of time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data. • Usage can differ between areas of application: for example in hydrology, the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. • Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction. Forecasting is used in the practice of in every day business forecasting for manufacturing companies. The discipline of demand planning, also sometimes referred to as supply chain forecasting, embraces both statistical forecasting and a consensus process. • Forecasting is commonly used in discussion of time-series data. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  18. 18. EA-envision Risk Management • Risk management is a structured approach to managing uncertainty through foresight and planning. A risk is related to a specific threat (or group of related threats) managed through a sequence of activities using various resources: - • Risk Research – Risk Identification – Risk Prioritization – Risk Assessment – Risk Management Strategies – Risk Planning – Risk Mitigation • Risk management strategies may include: - – transferring the risk to another party – avoiding the risk – reducing the negative effect of the risk – accepting part or all of the consequences of a particular risk . • In an ideal risk management scenario, a prioritization process ranks those risks with the greatest potential loss and the greatest probability of occurring to be handled first - and risks with lower probability of occurrence and lower consequential losses are then handled in descending order • In practice this prioritization can be challenging. Comparing and balancing the overall threat of risks with a high probability of occurrence but lower loss - versus risks with higher potential loss but lower probability of occurrence - can often be misleading.
  19. 19. EA-envision Enterprise Risk Management Framework
  20. 20. EA-envision Global Massive Change • Global Massive Change is an evaluation of global capacities and limitations. It encompasses both utopian and dystopian possibilities of the emerging world future state, in which climate, the environment, ecology and geology are dominated by human manipulation: - – Human impact is now the major factor in climate change. – Species extinction rate is now greater than in the late Permian mass extinction event – in which 90% of all species were eliminated – Man now moves more rock and earth than do all geological processes.
  21. 21. Climate Change • Most scientists agree that global warming presents the greatest threat to the environment. There is little doubt that the Earth is heating up. In the last century the average temperature has climbed about 0.6 degrees Celsius (about 1 degree Fahrenheit) around the world. • From the melting of the ice cap on Mount Kilimanjaro, Africa's tallest peak, to the loss of tropical coral reefs as oceans become warmer, the effects of global warming are often clear. Just as the evidence is irrefutable that temperatures have risen in the last century, it's also well established that carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has increased about 30 percent, enhancing the atmosphere's ability to trap heat. • The exact link, if any, between the increase in carbon dioxide emissions and the higher temperatures is still under debate. Most scientists believe that humans, by burning fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum, are largely to blame for the increase in carbon dioxide. But some scientists also point to natural causes, such as volcanic activity. • The current rate of warning is unprecedented, however. It is apparently the fastest warming rate in millions of years, suggesting it probably is not a natural occurrence. And most scientists believe the rise in temperatures will in fact accelerate. The United Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2001 that the average temperature is likely to increase by between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees Celsius (2.5 and 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by the year 2100.
  22. 22. Climate Change • Since our entire climatic system is fundamentally driven by energy from the sun, it stands to reason that if the sun's energy output were to change, then so would the climate. Since the advent of space-borne measurements in the late 1970s, solar output has indeed been shown to vary. With now 28 years of reliable satellite observations there is confirmation of earlier suggestions of an 11 (and 22) year cycle of irradiance related to sunspots but no longer term trend in these data. • Based on paleoclimatic (proxy) reconstructions of solar irradiance there is suggestion of a trend of about +0.12 W/m2 since 1750 which is about half of the estimate given in the last IPCC report in 2001. There is though, a great deal of uncertainty in estimates of solar irradiance beyond what can be measured by satellites, and still the contribution of direct solar irradiance forcing is small compared to the greenhouse gas component. However, our understanding of the indirect effects of changes in solar output and feedbacks in the climate system is minimal. There is much need to refine our understanding of key natural forcing mechanisms of the climate, including solar irradiance changes, in order to reduce uncertainty in our projections of future climate change.
  23. 23. Climate Change • In addition to changes in energy from the sun itself, the Earth's position and orientation relative to the sun (our orbit) also varies slightly, thereby bringing us closer and further away from the sun in predictable cycles (Milankovitch Cycles). Variations in these cycles are believed to be the cause of Earth's ice-ages (glacial episodes). One factor of particular importance for the development of glaciations is the amount of radiation received at high northern latitudes in the summer. • Diminishing radiation at these latitudes during the summer months would have enabled winter snow and ice cover to persist throughout the year, eventually leading to a permanent snow- or icepack. Over several centuries, it may be possible to observe the effect of these orbital parameters. While Milankovitch Cycles have tremendous value in explaining ice-ages and long-term climatic changes on the earth, there are other factors which have very high impact on the decade-century timescale. However for the prediction of climate change in the 21st century, these long-term factors will be far less significant than other changes - such a radiative forcing from greenhouse gases.
  24. 24. EA-envision Milankovitch Cycles • Milankovitch Cycles are the collective effect of changes in the Earth's movements upon its climate, named after the Serbian mathematician Milutin Milanković. The eccentricity (E), axial tilt (T), and precession (P) of the Earth's orbit vary in several patterns, resulting in 100,000-year ice age cycles of the Quaternary glaciations over the last few million years. The Earth's axis completes one full cycle of precession (P) approximately every 26,000 years. At the same time, the elliptical orbit rotates, more slowly, leading to a 21,000-year cycle between the seasons and the orbit. In addition, the angle between Earth's rotational axis and the normal to the plane of its orbit moves from 22.1 degrees to 24.5 degrees and back again on a 41,000-year cycle. Currently, this angle is 23.44 degrees and decreasing. • The Milankovitch Cycles, or ‘orbital’ theory of the ice ages is now well developed. Ice ages are generally triggered by minima in high-latitude Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, enabling winter snowfall to persist through the year and therefore accumulate to build Northern Hemisphere glacial ice sheets. Similarly, times with especially intense high-latitude Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, determined by orbital changes, are thought to trigger rapid de-glaciations, associated climate change and sea level rise. These orbital forcings determine the pacing of climatic changes, while the large responses appear to be determined by strong feedback processes that amplify the orbital forcing. Over multi-millennial time scales, orbital forcing also exerts a major influence on key climate systems such as the Earth’s major monsoons, global ocean circulation and the greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere. • Current evidence indicates that current warming will not be mitigated by a natural cooling trend towards glacial conditions. Understanding of the Earth’s response to orbital forcing indicates that the Earth will not naturally enter another ice age for at least 30,000 years.
  25. 25. EA-envision Milankovitch Cycles EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  26. 26. EA-envision The Earth’s Movements • As the Earth spins around its axis and orbits around the Sun, several quasi-periodic variations occur. Although the curves have a large number of sinusoidal components, a few components are dominant. Milankovitch studied changes in the eccentricity, obliquity, and precession of Earth's movements. Such changes in movement and orientation change the amount and location of solar radiation reaching the Earth. This is known as solar forcing (an example of radiative forcing). Changes near the north polar area are considered important due to the large amount of land, which reacts to such changes more quickly than the oceans do. • Currently the difference between closest approach to the Sun (perihelion) and furthest distance (aphelion) is only 3.4% (5.1 million km). This difference is equivalent to about a 6.8% change in incoming solar radiation. Perihelion presently occurs around January 3, while aphelion is around July 4. When the orbit is at its most elliptical, the amount of solar radiation at perihelion is about 23% greater than at aphelion. This difference is roughly 4 times the value of the eccentricity. • Orbital mechanics require that the length of the seasons be proportional to the areas of the seasonal quadrants, so when the eccentricity is extreme, the seasons on the far side of the orbit can be substantially longer in duration. When autumn and winter occur at closest approach, as is the case currently in the northern hemisphere, the earth is moving at its maximum velocity and therefore autumn and winter are slightly shorter than spring and summer. Thus, summer in the northern hemisphere is 4.66 days longer than winter and spring is 2.9 days longer than autumn. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  27. 27. EA-envision Milankovitch Cycles National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  28. 28. EA-envision Orbital shape (eccentricity) • The Earth's orbit is an ellipse. The eccentricity is a measure of the departure of this ellipse from circularity. The shape of the Earth's orbit varies from being nearly circular (low eccentricity of 0.005) to being mildly elliptical (high eccentricity of 0.058) and has a mean eccentricity of 0.028. The major component of these variations occurs on a period of 413,000 years (eccentricity variation of ±0.012). A number of other terms vary between 95,000 and 136,000 years, and loosely combine into a 100,000-year cycle (variation of −0.03 to +0.02). The present eccentricity is 0.017. • If the Earth were the only planet orbiting our Sun, the eccentricity of its orbit would not vary in time. The Earth's eccentricity varies primarily due to interactions with the gravitational fields of Jupiter and Saturn. As the eccentricity of the orbit evolves, the semi-major axis of the orbital ellipse remains unchanged. From the perspective of the perturbation theory used in celestial mechanics to compute the evolution of the orbit, the semi-major axis is an adiabatic invariant. According to Kepler's third law the period of the orbit is determined by the semi-major axis. It follows that the Earth's orbital period, the length of a sidereal year, also remains unchanged as the orbit evolves. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  29. 29. EA-envision Orbital inclination • The inclination of Earth's orbit drifts up and down relative to its present orbit with a cycle having a period of about 70,000 years. Note: Milankovitch did not study this three-dimensional aspect of orbital movement. • More recent researchers noted this drift and that the orbit also moves relative to the orbits of the other planets. The invariable plane, the plane that represents the angular momentum of the solar system, is approximately the orbital plane of Jupiter. The inclination of the Earth's orbit has a 100,000 year cycle relative to the invariable plane. This 100,000-year cycle closely matches the 100,000-year pattern of ice ages. • It has been proposed that a disk of dust and other debris is in the invariable plane, and this affects the Earth's climate through several possible means. The Earth presently moves through this plane around January 9 and July 9, when there is an increase in radar-detected meteors and meteor-related noctilucent clouds. • A study of the chronology of Antarctic ice cores using oxygen to nitrogen ratios in air bubbles trapped in the ice, which appear to respond directly to the local insolation, concluded that the climatic response documented in the ice cores was driven by Northern Hemisphere insolation as proposed by the Milankovitch hypothesis (Kawamura et al, Nature, 23 August 2007, vol 448, p912-917). This is an additional validation of the Milankovitch hypothesis by a relatively novel method, and is inconsistent with the "inclination" theory of the 100,000-year cycle. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  30. 30. EA-envision Axial tilt (obliquity) • The angle of the Earth's axial tilt (obliquity) varies with respect to the plane of the Earth's orbit. These slow 2.4° obliquity variations are roughly periodic, taking approximately 41,000 years to shift between a tilt of 22.1° and 24.5° and back again. When the obliquity increases, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in insolation increases, with summers in both hemispheres receiving more irradiative flux from the Sun, and the winters less irradiative flux. As a result, it is assumed that the winters become colder and summers warmer. • But these changes of opposite sign in the summer and winter are not of the same magnitude. The annual mean insolation increases in high latitudes with increasing obliquity, while lower latitudes experience a reduction in insolation. Cooler summers are suspected of encouraging the start of an ice age by melting less of the previous winter's ice and snow. So it can be argued that lower obliquity favours ice ages both because of the mean insolation reduction in high latitudes as well as the additional reduction in summer insolation. • Currently the Earth is tilted at 23.44 degrees from its orbital plane, roughly half way between its extreme values. The tilt is in the decreasing phase of its cycle, and will reach its minimum value around the year 10,000 AD. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  31. 31. EA-envision Precession (wobble) • Precession is the change in the direction of the Earth's axis of rotation relative to the fixed stars, with a period of roughly 26,000 years. This gyroscopic motion is due to the tidal forces exerted by the sun and the moon on the solid Earth, associated with the fact that the Earth is not a perfect sphere but has an equatorial bulge. The sun and moon contribute roughly equally to this effect. In addition, the orbital ellipse itself precesses in space (anomalistic precession), primarily as a result of interactions with Jupiter and Saturn. This orbital precession is in the opposite sense to the gyroscopic motion of the axis of rotation, shortening the period of the precession of the equinoxes with respect to the perihelion from 26,000 to 21,000 years. • When the axis is aligned so it points toward the Sun during perihelion, one polar hemisphere will have a greater difference between the seasons while the other hemisphere will have milder seasons. The hemisphere which is in summer at perihelion will receive much of the corresponding increase in solar radiation, but that same hemisphere will be in winter at aphelion and have a colder winter. The other hemisphere will have a relatively warmer winter and cooler summer. • When the Earth's axis is aligned such that aphelion and perihelion occur near the equinoxes, the Northern and Southern Hemispheres will have similar contrasts in the seasons. • At present perihelion occurs during the Southern Hemisphere's summer, and aphelion is reached during the southern winter. Thus the Southern Hemisphere seasons are somewhat more extreme than the Northern Hemisphere seasons, when other factors are equal.
  32. 32. Climate Change • Indirect indicators of global warming such as ice borehole temperatures, snow cover, and glacier recession data, are in substantial agreement with the more direct indicators of recent warmth. Evidence such as changes in glacial mass balance (the amount of snow and ice contained in a glacier) is useful since it not only provides qualitative support for meteorological data, but glaciers are often found in places too remote to support meteorological stations. The records of glacial advance and retreat often extend back further than weather station records, and glaciers are usually at much higher altitudes than weather stations, allowing scientists more insight into temperature changes prevalent higher in the atmosphere - though extending the Antarctic sea-ice record back in time is more difficult due to the lack of direct observations in this part of the world. • Large-scale measurements of sea-ice have only been possible since the satellite era, but through looking at a number of different satellite estimates, it has been determined that September Arctic sea ice has decreased between 1973 and 2007 at a rate of about -10% +/- 0.3% per decade. Sea ice extent for September for 2007 was by far the lowest on record at 4.28 million square kilometres, eclipsing the previous record low sea ice extent by 23%. Sea ice in the Antarctic has shown very little trend over the same period, or even a slight increase from 1979 to 1995. • In 1995, however, Larsen Ice Shelf A disintegrated. In 2002 the whole of the Larsen Ice Shelf B disappeared in just a few weeks – an area the size of Rhode Island in the USA. The mechanism is thought to be summer liquid water pooling at the surface, filtering down cracks and crevices and subsequently freezing – shattering the ice sheet
  33. 33. Glacial Ice Mass Balance
  34. 34. Sea Ice Extent
  35. 35. Global Warming • Clouds are an important indicator of climate change. Surface-based observations of cloud cover suggest increases in total cloud cover over many continental regions – including areas of increased urbanization such as tropical Africa and southern Asia. This increase since 1950 is consistent with regional increases in precipitation for the same period. However, despite regional variation, analyses of cloud cover over land for the period 1976- 2003 shows little statistically significant overall global change. • An enhanced greenhouse effect would be expected to cause cooling in higher parts of the atmosphere because the increased "blanketing" effect in the lower atmosphere holds in more heat, allowing less to reach the upper atmosphere. Cooling of the lower stratosphere (about 49,000-79,500 ft.) since 1979 is shown by both satellite Microwave Sounding Unit and weather balloon data, but is larger in weather balloon data (most likely this is due to unidentified / uncorrected data errors). • Relatively cool surface and tropospheric temperatures, and a relatively warmer lower stratosphere, were observed in 1992 and 1993, due to atmospheric volcanic dust following the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. The warming reappeared in 1994. A dramatic global warming took place in 1998 - at least partly associated with the record El Niño. This warming episode was consistent from the surface right to the top of the troposphere.
  36. 36. Global Warming EA-envision Global surface temperatures have increased about 0.74°C (plus or minus 0.18°C) since the late-19th century, and the linear trend for the past 50 years of 0.13°C (plus or minus 0.03°C) per decade is nearly twice that for the past 100 years The warming has not been globally uniform. Some areas (including parts of the south- eastern U.S. and parts of the North Atlantic) have, in fact, cooled slightly over the last century. The recent warmth has been greatest over North America and Eurasia between 40 and 70°N, Lastly, seven of the eight warmest years on record have occurred since 2001 and the 10 warmest years have all occurred since 1995.
  37. 37. Global Warming • Examination of changes in climate extremes requires long-term daily or even hourly data sets which until recently have been scarce for many parts of the globe. However these data sets have become more widely available allowing research into changes in temperature and precipitation extremes on global and regional scales. Global changes in temperature extremes include decreases in the number of unusually cold days and nights and increases in the number of unusually warm days and nights. Other observed changes include lengthening of the growing season, and decreases in the number of frost days. • Global temperature extremes have been found to exhibit no significant trend in inter- annual variability, but several studies suggest a significant decrease in intra-annual variability. There has been a clear trend to fewer extremely low minimum temperatures in several widely-separated areas in recent decades. Widespread significant changes in extreme high temperature events have not been observed. There is some indication of a decrease in day-to-day temperature variability in recent decades. • Many individual studies of various regions show that extra-tropical cyclone activity seems to have generally increased over the last half of the 20th century in the northern hemisphere, but decreased in the southern hemisphere. Furthermore, hurricane activity in the Atlantic has shown an increase in number since 1970 with a peak in 2005. It is not clear whether these trends are multi-decadal fluctuations or part of a longer-term trend.
  38. 38. Global Warming Recent analyses of temperature trends in the lower and mid- troposphere (between about 2,500 and 26,000 ft.) using both satellite and weather balloon data show warming rates that are similar to those observed for surface air temperatures. These warming rates are consistent with their uncertainties and these analyses reconcile a discrepancy between warming rates noted on the IPCC Third Assessment Report (U.S. Climate Change Science Plan Synthesis and Assessment Report 1.1). .
  39. 39. Storms
  40. 40. Precipitation • Globally-averaged land-based precipitation shows no statistically significant upward trend - with most of the increase occurring in the first half of the 20th century. Furthermore, observed precipitation changes have been spatially variable over the last century. • On a regional basis, increase in annual precipitation have occurred in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, in southern South America and in northern Australia – areas remote from major cities. Decreases have occurred in tropical Africa and in southern Asia. • This may be explained by the dramatic increase in air travel from the early 1960s onwards. Up to 10% of global cloud cover is generated by jet condensation trails – acting to both reduce the amount of energy from sunlight reaching the earth, and also the amount of evaporation of surface water caused by photon energy in sunlight directly exciting surface water molecules - thus making them more energetic and increasing overall evaporation. • Jet aircraft traffic density is lower in higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, southern South America and in northern Australia – therefore jet condensation trails have a smaller impact on reducing evaporation. Clearly, although jet travel contributes greatly to rising greenhouse gas levels, jet condensation trails act to suppress impact on the environment • Due to the difficulty in measuring trends in annual precipitation, it has been important to validate these observations by analysing other related variables. The measured changes in precipitation are consistent with observed changes in stream flow, lake levels, and soil moisture (where data sets are available and have been analysed).
  41. 41. Precipitation Globally-averaged land-based precipitation shows no statistically significant upward trend - with most of the increase occurring in the first half of the 20th century. Furthermore, observed precipitation changes have been spatially variable over the last century. On a regional basis, increase in annual precipitation have occurred in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, in southern South America and in northern Australia – areas remote from major cities. Decreases have occurred in tropical Africa and in southern Asia.
  42. 42. Precipitation On a regional basis, increase in annual precipitation have occurred in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, in southern South America and in northern Australia – all areas that are remote from major cities. Decreases in annual precipitation have occurred in tropical Africa and in southern Asia – all areas of increased urbanisation.
  43. 43. El Niño and La Niña • El Niño's are not caused by global warming. Clear evidence exists from a variety of sources (including archaeological studies) that El Niño's have been present for thousands, and some indicators suggest maybe millions, of years. However, it has been hypothesized that warmer global sea surface temperatures can enhance the El Niño phenomenon, and it is also true that El Niño's (and La Niña's) have been more frequent and intense in recent decades. Whether El Niño occurrence changes with climate change is a major research question. • A rather abrupt change in the El Niño - Southern Oscillation behavior occurred around 1976/77. Often called the climatic shift of 1976/77, this new regime has persisted. There have been relatively more frequent and persistent El Niño episodes rather than the cool episode La Niñas. This behavior is highly unusual in the last 130 years (the period of instrumental record). Changes in precipitation over the tropical Pacific are related to this change in the El Niño - Southern Oscillation, which has also affected the pattern and magnitude of surface temperatures. However, it is unclear as to whether this apparent change in the ENSO cycle is related to global warming. • In areas where a drought or excessive wetness usually accompanies an El Niño or La Niña, these dry or wet spells have been more intense in recent years. Further, there is some evidence for increasing drought worldwide, however in the U.S. there is no evidence for increasing drought.In some areas where overall precipitation has increased (ie. the mid-high northern latitudes), there is evidence of increases in the heavy and extreme precipitation events
  44. 44. El Niño and La Niña • In areas where a drought or excessive wetness usually accompanies an El Niño or La Niña, these dry or wet spells have been more intense in recent years. Further, there is some evidence for increasing drought worldwide, however in the U.S. there is no evidence for increasing drought. • In some areas where overall precipitation has increased (ie. the mid-high northern latitudes), there is evidence of increases in the heavy and extreme precipitation events. Even in areas such as eastern Asia, it has been found that extreme precipitation events have increased despite total precipitation remaining constant or even decreasing somewhat. This is related to a decrease in the frequency of precipitation in this region. • On a regional basis, increase in annual precipitation have occurred in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, in southern South America and in northern Australia – all areas that are remote from major cities. Decreases in annual precipitation have occurred in tropical Africa and in southern Asia – all areas of increased urbanisation.
  45. 45. El Niño and La Niña In areas where a drought or excessive wetness usually accompanies an El Niño or La Niña, these dry or wet spells have been more intense in recent years. Further, there is some evidence for increasing drought worldwide, however in the U.S. there is no evidence for increasing drought. Even in areas such as eastern Asia, it has been found that extreme precipitation events have increased despite total precipitation remaining constant or even decreasing somewhat. This is related to a decrease in the frequency of precipitation in this region.
  46. 46. EA-envision Sea Level Rising - Historic • Global mean sea level has been rising historically at an average rate of 1.7 mm/year (plus or minus 0.5mm) over the past 100 years, which is significantly larger than the rate averaged over the last several thousand years. However, the global average sea level is currently rising , for the most part, at nearly 3mm/year and accelerating. Scientists fully expect average sea levels to have risen by 30cm or more by 2100 on a simple projection of these ocean thermal expansion figures alone. • Depending on which greenhouse gas increase scenario is used (high or low) projected sea-level rise is projected to be anywhere from 0.18 (low greenhouse gas increase) to 0.59 meters by 2100 for the highest greenhouse gas increase scenario. Acceleration of global warming may lead to a ten-fold future global sea level increase – suggesting a possible 3 meter rise in average sea levels by 2100. • However, this simplistic linear increase in global mean sea level is based only on ocean thermal expansion - with small contributions from retreating alpine glaciers – and does not include any potential massive contributions from land based melting ice caps in either Greenland or Antarctica. Very much larger sea level increases must be expected but our current understanding of glacial dynamics leads to uncertainties in being able to assess the precise extent of large-scale melting of massive ice caps. • The greatest danger, many experts warn, is that global warming will cause sea levels to rise dramatically. Thermal expansion has already raised the oceans by around 7 inches (17 to 18 centimetres). This mean sea level rise is insignificant compared to what would happen if, for example, Greenland's massive ice sheet were to melt.
  47. 47. Sea Level Rising s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  48. 48. EA-envision Sea Level Rising - Future • Large-scale measurements of sea-ice have only been possible since the satellite era, but through looking at a number of different satellite estimates, it has been determined that September Arctic sea ice has decreased between 1973 and 2007 at a rate of about -10% +/- 0.3% per decade. Sea ice extent for September for 2007 was by far the lowest on record at 4.28 million square kilometres, eclipsing the previous record low sea ice extent by 23%. Sea ice in the Antarctic has shown very little trend over the same period, or even a slight increase from 1979 to 1995. • Recent research has established a direct correlation between sea levels and average global temperature. For each one degree centigrade increase / decrease in average global temperature then there is a corresponding 20 metre rise / fall in sea level (Professor Richard Alley, Penn State University). The IPCC projects a best estimate of global temperature increase of 1.8 - 4.0°C with a possible range of 1.1 - 6.4°C by 2100 – indicating a catastrophic corresponding rise in sea levels in the range 22 – 128 metres. • Many glaciers are now flowing at up to eight times faster than only a decade ago – due to summer liquid water pooling at the surface, filtering down cracks and crevices and lubricating flow at the base. Additionally, melting of the arctic tundra permafrost in Siberia is contributing vast amounts of additional fresh water into the Arctic Sea.
  49. 49. EA-envision Sea Level Rising - Future • In Antarctica, however, average summer temperatures are now rising at six to eight times faster than the global average – about 0.5 °C per decade since the late 1940s - massively increasing the rate of summer ice loss. Current studies indicate an acceleration of climate warming towards a predicted two degrees centigrade increase in average global temperature by 2100 – predicating a corresponding 40metre rise in sea level by the end of the century – causing global flooding over the world’s coastline and huge loss of large areas of existing land. • In 1995 Larsen Ice Shelf A disintegrated. In 2002, however, the whole of the Larsen Ice Shelf B disappeared in just a few weeks – an area the size of Rhode Island in the USA. The mechanism is thought to be summer liquid water pooling at the surface, filtering down cracks and crevices and subsequently re-freezing – shattering the ice sheet • Should the Greenland Ice Cap disappear, then global sea levels will rise by 7 meters – flooding large parts of the world’s coastal cities, harbours, and all low- lying coastline, estuaries, deltas and archipelagos. The loss of the Antarctic Ice Cap would increase sea levels by a further 130 meters – loosing up to 90km from the existing coastline, displacing over one-third of world’s population, drowning most of the worlds capital cities and washing away much of the world’s most productive and intensively cultivated agricultural land.
  50. 50. EA-envision Greenhouse Gases • We have learned - from the continuing work on the analysis of ice-cores by the British Antarctic Survey - that levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, particularly CO2, are at their highest point at any time during the last 700,000 years. • Current levels of atmospheric CO2 have risen to 430ppm (up 150ppm from 280ppm at the start of the industrial revolution). Furthermore, the global rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 is higher than at any time in the last 20,000 years and continues to rise exponentially (Professor Richard Alley, Penn State University). It is widely agreed that when CO2 levels exceed 500ppm then the tipping point of irreversible climate change will be surpassed – therefore catastrophic environmental degradation will become inevitable – disrupting agriculture and fisheries with the consequent loss of up to 90 per cent of human population through scarcity of resources, war, famine and disease. • If there is no amelioration in the acceleration of CO2 emissions, then this figure will increase to 750ppm by the end of this century - which would represent higher CO2 levels than those prevalent at any time during the last 30 million years. • Scientists are now looking at what needs to be done to mitigate and adapt to these challenging conditions as the rate of change in greenhouse gases settles down at the new, higher predicted rates. Their emphasis is on building better climate models linking the Milankovitch Cycles (changes in earth orbit, axial tilt and axial wobble) together with average global temperature, atmospheric CO2 and sea level changes. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  51. 51. Climate Models EA-envision • Due to the enormous complexity of the atmosphere, the most useful tools for gauging future changes are 'climate models'. These are computer-based mathematical models which simulate, in three dimensions, the climate's behaviour, its components and their interactions. Climate models are constantly improving based on both our understanding and the increase in computer power, though by definition, a computer model is a simplification and simulation of reality, meaning that it is an approximation of the climate system. The first step in any modelled projection of climate change is to first simulate the present climate and compare it to observations. If the model is considered to do a good job at representing modern climate, then certain parameters can be changed, such as the concentration of greenhouse gases, which helps us understand how the climate would change in response. Projections of future climate change therefore depend on how well the computer climate model simulates the climate and on our understanding of how forcing functions will change in the future. • According to the range of possible forcing scenarios, and taking into account uncertainty in climate model performance, the IPCC projects a best estimate of global temperature increase of 1.8 - 4.0°C with a possible range of 1.1 - 6.4°C by 2100, depending on which emissions scenario is used. However, this global average will integrate widely varying regional responses, such as the likelihood that land areas will warm much faster than ocean temperatures, particularly those land areas in northern high latitudes (and mostly in the cold season). In Antarctica, however, average summer temperatures are rising – with increased ice loss. Globally, it is very likely that - as a result of increased climatic energy - storms, floods, heat waves, drought and other climatic extremes will increase. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  52. 52. Climate Models National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  53. 53. Climate Models • Paleoclimatic data sets are critical for enabling us to extend our knowledge of climatic variability beyond what is measured by modern instruments. • Many natural phenomena are climate dependent (such as the growth rate of a tree for example), and as such, provide natural 'archives' of climate information. Some useful paleoclimate data can be found in sources as diverse as tree rings, ice cores, corals, lake sediments (including fossil insects and pollen data), speleothems (stalactites etc), and ocean sediments. • Some of these, including ice cores and tree rings, are able to provide us also with an annual chronology due to the nature of how they are formed, and so high resolution climate reconstruction is possible. • In these cases. however, there is no continuous, comprehensive or complete 'network' of paleoclimate data as there is with instrumental coverage - so global climate reconstructions are often difficult to obtain. Nevertheless, combining different types of paleoclimate records enables us to gain a near- global picture of climate changes in the distant past.
  54. 54. Climate Models Paleoclimatic data sets are critical for enabling us to extend our knowledge of climatic variability beyond what is measured by modern instruments. Many natural phenomena are climate dependent (such as the growth rate of a tree for example), and as such, provide natural 'archives' of climate information. Paleoclimate data may be found in sources as diverse as tree rings, ice cores, corals, lake sediments (including fossil insects and pollen data), speleothems (stalactites etc), and ocean sediments.
  55. 55. Climate Models • For Northern Hemisphere temperature, recent decades appear to be the warmest since at least about 1000AD, and the warming since the late 19th century is unprecedented over the last 1000 years. Older data sets are insufficient to provide reliable hemispheric temperature estimates. Ice core data suggest that the 20th century has been warm in many parts of the globe, but also that the significance of the warming varies geographically, when viewed in the context of climate variations of the last millennium. • Large and rapid climatic changes affecting the atmospheric and oceanic circulation and temperature, and the hydrological cycle, occurred during the last ice age and during the transition towards the present Holocene period (which began about 10,000 years ago). Based on the incomplete evidence available, the projected change of 3 to 7°F (1.5 - 4°C) over the next century would be unprecedented in comparison with the best available records from the last several thousand years. • The IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios determines the range of future possible greenhouse gas concentrations (and other forcings) based on considerations such as population growth, economic growth, energy efficiency and a host of other factors. This leads a wide range of possible forcing scenarios, and consequently a wide range of possible future climates.
  56. 56. EA-envision Sustainability • Sustainability is a characteristic of a process or state that can be maintained at a certain level indefinitely. The term, in its environmental usage, refers to the potential longevity of vital human ecological support systems, such as the planet's climatic system, systems of agriculture, industry, forestry, fisheries, and the systems on which they depend. In recent years, public discourse has led to a use of "sustainability" in reference to how long human ecological systems can be expected to be usefully productive. In the past, complex human societies have died out, sometimes as a result of their own growth-associated impacts on ecological support systems. The implication is that modern industrial society, which continues to grow in scale and complexity, will also collapse. • The implied preference would be for systems to be productive indefinitely, or be "sustainable." For example, "sustainable agriculture" would develop agricultural systems to last indefinitely; "sustainable development" can be a development of economic systems that last indefinitely, etc. A side discourse relates the term sustainability to longevity of natural ecosystems and reserves (set aside for other-than-human species), but the challenging emphasis has been on human systems and anthropogenic problems, such as anthropogenic climate change, or the depletion of fossil fuel reserves. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  57. 57. EA-envision Renewable Resources • A natural resource is a renewable resource if it is replenished by natural processes at a rate comparable or faster than its rate of consumption by humans or other users. Solar radiation, tides, winds and hydroelectricity are perpetual resources that are not in danger of being consumed at a rate in excess of their long-term availability or renewal. • The term renewable resource also has the implication of sustainability of handling and absorption of waste products by the natural environment. • Nuclear Fission supports Low Carbon Generation but carries with it problems of both renewability and sustainability. Nuclear Fusion is both renewable and sustainable. • Some natural renewable resources such as geothermal, fresh water, timber, and biomass must be carefully managed to avoid exceeding the environment's capacity to replenish them. A life cycle assessment provides a systematic evaluation of renewability. • Petroleum, coal, natural gas, diesel, are commodities derived from fossil fuels and are non-renewable. Unlike fossil fuels, a renewable resource can have a sustainable yield. • Renewable resources may also mean commodities such as wood, paper, and leather. • Solar power is the energy derived directly from the Sun. It is the most abundant source of energy on Earth. It is captured by photovoltaic cells, or by using sunlight to heat water. The Sun ignited about 4.6 billion years ago and will continue for another 5 billion years. • Wind power is derived from uneven heating of the Earth's surface from the Sun and the warm core. Most modern wind power is generated in the form of electricity by converting the rotation of turbine blades into electrical current by means of an electrical generator. In windmills (a much older technology) wind energy is used to turn mechanical machinery to do physical work, like crushing grain or pumping water. • Hydropower, energy derived from the movement of water in rivers and oceans (or other energy differentials), can likewise be used to generate electricity using turbines, or can be used mechanically to do useful work. It is a very common resource.
  58. 58. Combined heat and power (CHP) • What is CHP? • Who is it suitable for? • Combined heat and power (CHP), also • CHP can be used throughout the known as co-generation, is the commercial, industrial and public sectors. generation and exploitation of both Larger, tailor-made systems are particularly heat and power (usually in the form of suited to applications where there is a high electricity) from the same equipment heat demand, such as hospitals, leisure set, in the same place, at the same centres, hotels and industrial sites with time. process heating requirements (especially chemical, brewing and paper industries). • Not only does CHP enable the conversion of a high proportion of • Some industrial processes which use hot otherwise waste heat to usable heat, water or steam are suited to small scale but it is very efficient because power is (<1MW) CHP, including the following generated close to where it is being sectors: chemicals; textiles and leather; used (and thus electricity transmission food and drink; rubber and plastics; losses are minimised). The engineering; and agriculture/horticulture. predominant fuel used for CHP schemes is natural gas (62% in 2000). • For a site to support a successful CHP Other fuels include oil, coal or even installation, it should typically have a heat renewables (such as municipal and and power requirement for at least 4,500 industrial waste, sewage gases, hours/year (although it could be cost- biogases, from anaerobic digestion, effective with fewer operating hours). biodiesel, gasification etc and wood). Generally, the greater the annual period of demand, then the greater the benefits…..
  59. 59. Combined heat and power (CHP) • How does CHP work? • In its simplest form a CHP system comprises a gas turbine, engine or steam turbine to drive an alternator. • The resulting electricity is used primarily on-site. The waste heat, in the form of steam or hot water, is collected and can be used to provide heat for industrial processes, for community heating and for space heating. It can also provide cooling - using advanced absorption cooling technology. • Systems vary considerable in size, from micro turbines (<50 kW) to many MW of electrical output
  60. 60. Petroleum Reservoir Simulation and Exploitation Petroleum Reservoir depletion may take place over periods up to and exceeding 30 years….. • Reservoir Simulation • Reservoir Exploitation – The Grid System – Economic Modelling for Oil & Gas – The Well Model Production – Conservation Equations – Geological Science – Geological Mapping, Log Data – Transient Well Logging and Spatial Analysis – Open Hole Logging – Reservoir Modelling and – Production Logging Typological Characterization – Subsurface Reservoir Geology • Aquifers – Exploration Geophysics • Salt Domes – Reservoir Mapping – Model Initialization – Reservoir Modelling • Prediction Runs • History Matching – Heavy Oil Technology – Exploitation Modelling – Enhanced Oil and Gas Recovery • Depletion Options • Water flooding – Reservoir Analysis • Extraction Rates – Recovery Prediction • Recovery Extents – Injection Design – Enhanced Recovery Techniques • Gas displacement • Water Injection – Reservoir Analysis • Gas Injection – Recovery Prediction – Injection Design Typical Petroleum Recovery was 35% until Enhanced Recovery Techniques drove up to and over 65%…..
  61. 61. Petroleum Reservoir Modelling and Simulation
  62. 62. Petroleum Reservoir Modelling and Simulation
  63. 63. Visions Of The Future EA-envision • Leading theoretical physicist and futurist Dr Michio Kaku explores the cutting edge science of today, tomorrow, and beyond. He argues that the human race is at a tipping point in its history. In this century, we are going to make the historic transition from the 'Age of Discovery' to the 'Age of Mastery', a period in which humans move from being passive observers of nature to its active choreographers - where human impact dominates climate, the environment, ecology and geology. This will give us not only unparalleled opportunities but also great responsibilities - with the possibility of both utopian and dystopian future outcomes. • 1. The Intelligence Revolution Kaku explains how artificial intelligence will revolutionise homes, workplaces and lifestyles, and how virtual worlds will become so realistic that they will rival the physical world. Robots with human-level intelligence may finally become a reality, and in the ultimate stage of mastery, we'll even be able to merge our minds with machine intelligence – man-machine. • 2. The Biotech Revolution Genetics and biotechnology promise a future of unprecedented health and longevity: DNA screening could prevent many diseases, gene therapy could cure them and, thanks to lab- grown organs, the human body could be repaired as easily as a car, with spare parts readily available. Ultimately, the ageing process itself could be slowed or even halted. • 3. The Quantum Revolution The quantum revolution could turn many ideas of science fiction into science fact - from meta- materials with mind-boggling properties like invisibility through limitless quantum energy and room temperature superconductors to Arthur C Clarke's space elevator. Some scientists even forecast that in the latter half of the century everybody will have a personal fabricator that re- arranges molecules to produce everything from almost anything. Yet how will we ultimately use our mastery of matter? Like Samson, will we use our strength to bring down the temple? Or, like Solomon, will we have the wisdom to match our technology?
  64. 64. TRANSHUMANISM 2.0 Transhumanism 2.0 Natasha Vita-More Cultural Strategist
  65. 65. History Trans-humanism – advocates the ethical use of technology to expand the human capacity for performance, supporting the use of future science and technology to enhance human capabilities and qualities – and to overcome undesirable and unnecessary aspects of the present human condition. 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Trans-humanism – arose out of an inspirational dream that a handful of unrelated forward thinkers shared and came together to realize. Transhumanism, like other cultures of society, grew into the global culture it is today. But what is the projected or expected state of transhumanism, and what will be the defining lines that will determine if it will or can become a powerful driving force of the future? Natasha Vita-More - Cultural Strategist
  66. 66. Transhumanism — History Cultural Evolution “transhuman” is used by FM Transhumans in LA Transhuman Arts Statement Breakthroughs – TransCentury Transhuman Update airs Early 1980s Term “Extropy” is created Terms “Transhumanist and Mid 1980s “Transhumanism” are used Late 1980s Extropy: Journal of Transhumanist Thought emerges Early 1990s Extropy Institute develops Mid 1990s Extropians email list develops Extro Conferences are held Late 1990s Aleph develops transhumanist Resources in Sweden Transhumanist FAQ written “Introduction to Transhumanism” written Transcedo develops in Netherlands TransVision Conference is held De:Trans develops in Germany WTA develops
  67. 67. What is the projected or expected state of transhumanism, and what will be the defining lines that will determine if it will or can become a powerful driving force of the future? Sustainable Transhumanism Probable future Current Actions situation necessary Possible future Natasha Vita-More - Cultural Strategist
  68. 68. Futures Studies Foresight – Strategy & Planning – Future Landscape – Advisory Consulting EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework Changement est vieux comme le monde….. changement est aussi vieux que le temps.
  69. 69. Quantitative v. Qualitative Future Methods Challenges in Applying Qualitative Future Methods Wendy Schultz – Infinite Futures • Challenges in Applying Qualitative Future Methods • Positivists versus Futurists – a dichotomy • Strategists versus Scientists – research roles • Overview of Applied Future Studies – Key Components – Common Research Tools • Common Research Design Challenges – Choices - decision making & options selection – Common misunderstanding in the evaluation and selection of the methods available – Problems with method application & execution – Errors in interpretation & communication – Flaws in analysis & reporting Wendy Schultz – Infinite Futures
  70. 70. Positivists versus Futurists – design differences Challenges in Applying Qualitative Future Methods Wendy Schultz – Infinite Futures • Theory Formation v. Futures Articulation • Reductionism v. Systemic and Holistic • Experimental v. Descriptive • Linear Systems v. Complex and Chaotic Systems • Predictive v. Exploratory • Repeatable Results v. Insights • Hard Facts v. Soft Alternatives • Value Neutral v. Value Driven Wendy Schultz – Infinite Futures
  71. 71. Strategists versus Scientists – research roles Strategists Scientists Positivist – articulating a single, preferred Futurist – assessing possible, probable and vision of the future. The future will conform to alternative futures offering those conditions preferred options - thus our vision of an ideal which best fit our strategic goals / objectives future and desired outcomes will be fulfilled. for achieving a preferred future. We select those futures which best support our desired • Objective v. Subjective outcomes, goals and objectives for further • Observation v. Facilitation / Participation and more detailed analysis and investigation. • Knowledge Revelation v. Change Agent • Reporting v. Performing • Future Studies assumes that the objective of exploring multiple possible outcomes is to help people create the futures that they desire: - active, value-focussed research Wendy Schultz – Infinite Futures
  72. 72. Possible Futures and Alternative Futures….. Challenges in Applying Qualitative Future Methods Wendy Schultz – Infinite Futures Wendy Schultz – Infinite Futures • Firstly, assessing the probability of any given image of the future actually occurring must of necessity be an ongoing process: as trends and emerging issues of change • Alternative Possibilities grow, transform, plateau, and collapse over time, the probability of a possible outcome, or possible future, may vary over time. • Reality is non-liner – that is, chaotic – Hence the need for ongoing identification and thus it is impossible to predict and monitoring of the indicators of change. • Possible Futures emerge from the • Secondly, evaluating any given image of interplay of current trends and the future as aligning more or less closely emerging factors of change with the enterprise mission and vision statement is important in assessing which • This, again, articulates an exaggerated futures offer conditions that best fit strategic perspective to make the point that the goals and objectives in achieving a desired interrelationship between linear and outcome – a preferred future (Futurism) – non-linear systems demonstrates the however, that evaluation of a possible set of case that future reality is generated by future conditions as preferable is NOT THE the interaction of uncertainty with the SAME ACTIVITY as articulating a preferred present set of conditions and trends vision of the future (Positivism).
  73. 73. Futurists versus Positivists – summary of differences between Quantitative and Qualitative Future Methods • Futurists • Positivists – Quantitative – Qualitative – Analytic – Visionary – Objective – Subjective – Observation – Facilitation / Participation – Hypothesis Formation – Futures Articulation – Predictive – Exploratory – Theory Construction – Outcome Anticipation – Experimental – Descriptive – Complex / Chaotic Systems – Linear Systems – Repeatable Results – Insights – Model Driven – Intuitive – Hard Facts – Soft Alternatives – Reporting – Performing – Knowledge Revelation – Change Agent – Value Neutral – Value Driven – Reductionism – Systemic and Holistic Wendy Schultz – Infinite Futures
  74. 74. Quantitative v. Qualitative Futures Framework Primary Futures Disciplines (27) Secondary Futures Specialties (27) Future Foundations and Foresight Frameworks Probabilistic (Statistical) Prediction Planning and Strategy (foundation & advanced) Forecasting and Modelling (foundation and advanced) Ethnographic / Demographic Futures Geo-demographic Profiling and Actuarial Science Strategic Foresight Threat Assessment and Risk Management Scenario Analysis Scenario Development and Back-casting Market Analysis and Prediction Corporate Finance and Long-Term / Strategic Investment Environmental / Horizon Scanning Geography, Sociology, Demographics and Social Change Pattern Analysis and Extrapolation Urban and Long-Range Infrastructure Planning Science and Technology Futures Studies Innovation and Entrepreneurship Studies Systems and Technology Trends Analysis Cross Impact and Pattern Analysis Environment, Ecology and Sustainability Studies Future Landscape Envisioning. Planning and Mapping Emerging Issues / Technology Trends Analysis Preferential Surveys / Polls and Market Research Knowledge Management and Decision Support Collaboration, Facilitation Strategic Foresight Intuition and Pre-cognition Development and Acceleration Studies Linear Systems Studies Massive Change Complex Systems, Chaos Theory, Human Impact Futures Studies History and Analysis of Prediction Alternative Futures Critical and Evidence-Based Thinking Critical Futures and Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Peace / Conflict Studies Cognitive and Positive Psychology Personal Futures / Foresight Development Foresight, Intuition and Pre-cognition Predictive Surveys / Delphi Oracle Political Science and Policy Studies Leadership Studies, Religious Studies (Future Beliefs) Ethics of Emerging Technology Studies Socially Responsible / Triple Bottom Line Management Sociology, Philosophy and Evolution Studies Trans-humanism, Ethics and Values Studies Integral Studies and Future Thinking Weak Signals and Wildcards Visioning, Intuition, and Creativity Utopian and Dystopian Literature, Film & Arts Bio-Technology and Quantum Science Science Fiction and Images of the Future
  75. 75. Peter Bishop and Andy Hines – University of Houston 'Thinking About The Future' Peter Bishop and Andy Hines “Time present and time past are both perhaps contained in time future and time future contained in time past…..” T. S. Elliott
  76. 76. 'Thinking About The Future‘ Thinking About the Future Framework • 1. Framing: This important first step enables organizations to define the scope and focus of problems requiring strategic foresight. By taking time at the outset of a project, the team analyzing a problem can clarify the objective and determine how best to address it. • 2. Scanning: Once the team is clear about the boundaries and scope of an activity, it can scan the internal and external environments for relevant information and trends. • 3. Forecasting: Most organizations, if not challenged, tend to believe the future is going to be pretty much like the past. When the team probes the organization’s view of the future, they usually find an array of unexamined assumptions that tend to converge around incremental changes. • The task, then, is to challenge this view and prod the organization to think seriously about the possibility that things may not continue as they have—and in fact, rarely do. Considering a range of potential futures is the only sure-fire way to develop robust strategies that will position the organization securely for any future that may occur. • 4. Visioning: After forecasting has laid out a range of potential futures, visioning comes into play—generating the organization’s ideal or “preferred” future and starting to suggest stretch goals for moving toward it. • 5. Planning: This is the bridge between the vision and the action. Here, the team translates what could be into strategies and tactics that will lead toward the preferred future. • 6. Acting: This final phase is largely about communicating results, developing action agendas, and institutionalizing strategic thinking and intelligence systems, so the organization can nimbly and continually respond to the changing external environment. Peter Bishop and Andy Hines – University of Houston
  77. 77. executives and analysts Thinking About the Future • How executives and analysts can use the Thinking About the Future Framework – Design strategic foresight projects – Develop robust strategies that can stand up to a wide range of possible, plausible, probable and preferred future outcomes – Find how-to answers to specific tasks – Provide a refresher for experienced practitioners – Adopt guidelines for excellence as an organization Peter Bishop and Andy Hines – University of Houston
  78. 78. trainers and educators Thinking About the Future • How trainers and educators can use the Thinking About the Future Framework – Examine the important tenets of futurist theory and research – Understand how futurist thinking can powerfully strengthen an organization’s strategic thinking and acting on a day-to-day basis – Obtain a strong intellectual foundation preparing for careers in corporate foresight, strategy, planning or management consulting – Interact with analysts and role play strategic futures in order to challenge, influence, modify or corroborate their own assumptions Peter Bishop and Andy Hines – University of Houston

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