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Electric Car Wars - Who will win the race between BEVs, PHEVs, and FCEVs?

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Who will win the race between Battery Electric Vehicles, Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles?

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Electric Car Wars - Who will win the race between BEVs, PHEVs, and FCEVs?

  1. 1. Electric Car Wars Who will win the race between BEVs, PHEVs & FCEVs?
  2. 2. 2 1,150 750 400 300 225 150 850 550 250 200 150 100 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2010 2012 2016 2018 2020 2025 Expected decline in battery prices drove vehicle manufacturers to develop Battery Electric Vehicles with larger batteries Lithium Ion Battery Pack* Cost Estimates ($/kWh) Historical Forecast Max Min Source: Frost & Sullivan
  3. 3. 3 Vexed by Tesla, Audi and Mercedes plan to launch EVs with 60 kWh+ batteries and ultra fast charging capability to compete with Tesla on range as well as charging time OEM Model Charging Specifications • Charging Capacity – 350kW • Battery size – 80kWh • Range – 200 miles • Charging time ~10 min • Launch year – 2019 • Charging Capacity – Initially 150kW and going up to 350kW • Battery Size – 95kWh • Range – 200+ miles • Charging time ~15-20 min • Launch year – 2018/19 Maybach 6 e-Tron Quattro
  4. 4. 4 More than 25 models for almost every OEM are expected to have a 200+ mile range in the next 5 years. OEMs have a 300 mile range benchmark to match the performance of the EV to an ICE. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Existing Tesla Roadster (~400 m) Jaguar crossover 300+ miles Tesla Model 3 (215+ m) Ford Model E (200m) Aston Martin RapidE (200+m) Nissan Leaf (200+m) Chevrolet Bolt (240 m) Porsche Pajun EV (250m) Tesla Model S (~260+ m) Tesla Model X (~250+ m) Audi R8 gen 2 (280m) Tesla Model Y Hyundai / KIA SUV (200-300m) 200- 300 miles Volvo SPA PSA EMP2 (280m) Audi Q6 VW eGolf Mercedes S Class (~300+ m) Porsche Mission E (310 m) Mercedes B class (250m) Mercedes Larger than GLS - Coupe Audi Q8 (370+m) VW Phaeton (300+m) Mercedes crossover between C & E Class Porsche Boxster Total EV Market: Announced and Probable Future Launches of Long Range BEVs, Global, 2016-2021 Range Faraday Future FF91 (370 m) Lucid Air (400 m) Source: Frost & Sullivan
  5. 5. 5 With the future launch of those EVs with 200+ miles range, the industry is wondering whether PHEVs is only a short term solution or whether it is expected to contribute significantly to the future of the electric mobility Vehicles & End- Users Targeted Risks BEVs • Weight < 1.5 tons • Segment A & B • Urban • Commuting • 2nd vehicle • Requires the deployment of a fast charging network • Electricity grid constrains at local level as well as on highway corridors • Limits on cobalt and lithium availability if deployed in large scale • Limited range in highway driving conditions PHEVs • Weight > 1.5 tons • Segment D & Higher • Suburban & Rural • Unique vehicles • Limited incentives compared to BEV as not 100% electric • Electricity grid constrains at local level • More complex architecture as embarking 2 powertrains • Some end-users don’t charge it • NEDC cycle too optimistic on fuel consumption & CO2 emissions FCEVs • Weight > 1.5 tons • Segment D & Higher • Suburban & Rural • Unique vehicles • Needs renewable electricity to produce clean hydrogen & increase well to well energy efficiency • Expensive fuelling infrastructure to be deployed • Limits on platinum availability if deployed in large scale
  6. 6. 6 Metal Independence Shifting the resource availability issue from oil to metals do not address it – it only moves it • 1 kWh LCA battery = 800 gr of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent = 150 gr of Lithium = $12 lithium BoM* • 80 kWh LCA battery = 64 kg of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent = 12 kg of Lithium = $960 lithium BoM* • Tesla Gigafactory producing 500,000 batteries would require 2015 global lithium production for batteries (40% of global lithium production) • LCE prices were multiplied 2 fold in 6 months but are expected to stay below $15k/ton in the long term  No issue in the short/medium term with lithium • 1 kWh Li-ion battery = 200 gr of Cobalt • 80 kWh Li-ion battery = 16 kg of Cobalt = $950 • Cobalt was already in supply deficit in 2016 • Cobalt is a by-product of copper & nickel mining hence limited possibility to increase supply • Cobalt in rechargeable battery chemicals already represents about 45% of total cobalt demand • 65% of mined cobalt comes from RDC & 50% of the world's refined cobalt from China  Potential supply constrain & geopolitical risks for cobalt sourcing *Bill of Material Lithium Cobalt Pricesin$/ton
  7. 7. 7 Highway Range When driving on highways at 130 km/h, driving range is only 50 to 60% of the NEDC range for a BEV 2010 2015 2020 Battery Capacity 20-30kWh 30-60kWh 60-90kWh NEDC Range Up to 200 km 200-400 km +400 km • Even if BEVs are expected to reach 500km driving range, it is in city driving conditions • When driving on highways at 130 km/h, driving range is 50 to 60% of the NEDC range • At 130 km/h, the energy consumption more than double compared to 90 km/h with aerodynamic forces tripling to account for 80% of friction forces BEV battery capacity, NEDC & highway range roadmap Power required to balance mechanic & aerodynamic friction forces 80% Power to balance mechanical losses Power to balance aerodynamic losses Speed (km/h) Power(kW) 20% 73% 27% 65% 35% Source: Gregory Launay 22 kW 9 kW 15 kW Highway Range Up to 100 km 100-200 km +200 km
  8. 8. 8 Charging Infrastructure Availability Electric Vehicles will require significant investment to upgrade the local distribution grid and be able to charge everyday as well as to deploy a fast charging network on highways Local distribution grid “If two EV customers on the same transformer plugged in a 6.6 kW charger each during a peak time, their load could exceed the emergency rating of roughly 40% of distribution transformers in the US” Silver Spring Networks • Since 6,6 kW chargers draw an electricity load equivalent to a house (7 kW for a typical residence), utilities will need to invest in updating distribution networks and potentially add generation and transmission capacity. • Smart grid allowing load shifting will be critical to ensure smooth charging of multiple electric vehicle in the same neighbourhood • The impact on the local grid is expected to be equivalent between a PHEV and a BEV as they are likely to charge an equivalent “amount” of energy – what they used to commute • Charging power is expected to have the strongest impact on the local grid Fast charging on highways • Fast charging station in fuel stations will have to connect to the medium voltage grid which could represent significant installation cost • Most project under development do not plan to install more than 2 fast chargers (50kW) to be compared with 10+ gasoline/diesel “chargers” • With a fast charging 25 times as slow as regular fuelling (20 min for 100 km vs. 5 min for 600km) and 5 times as less “fuelling” points, availability for “refuelling” large BEVs will be 125 times more limited than for regular car • As most of the drivers tend to travel long distance at the same moment (week-end, holidays), a charging infrastructure 125 less dense won’t be able to address this peak demand • Fast charging network is not needed for PHEVs as they are able to drive on ICE for long distances and use the existing ultra fast charging infrastructure
  9. 9. 9 Charging Infrastructure Availability Even with a very dense network of fast chargers, BEVs sales might not follow. In Japan, fast charging infrastructure already reached saturation levels but EV sales are declining Number of CHAdeMO chargers installed by Country & in Japan Source: Nissan Electric Vehicle Sales in Japan Source: EV Volumes • 25,500 electric vehicles were sold in Japan in 2015 out of 5 million passenger car (0.5%) • Contrary to what the industry believe, BEVs sales might not surge even with large scale deployment of fast charging infrastructure
  10. 10. 10 • With 80% of electricity coming from thermal plants, FCEV well-to-wheel energy efficiency is currently more than twice as low as ICE vehicles at less than 10% • Clean hydrogen produced from fatal electricity from intermittent renewables is required to make FCEV an energy efficient alternative • Renewable energies are only expected to reach 8% of primary energy mix by 2035 hence availability of hydrogen from their fatal electricity production will be in the % scale Energy Efficiency With 80% of electricity coming from thermal plants, FCEV well-to-wheel energy efficiency is currently twice as low as ICE vehicles at less than 10% Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035 Mtoe Evolution of world primary energy consumption - Million tons of oil equivalent & % , 1965 to 2035 -
  11. 11. 11 Oil Independence Reducing the 97% oil dependence for transportation is critical as we will face an oil availability constrain by 2020 following the lack of investment in oil E&P since the oil price collapse in 2014 World all liquids production & forecast - Million barrels per day, 1900 to 2020 - Source: Jean Laherrere, ASPO France, June 2016 ProductionMb/d
  12. 12. 12 PHEVs do not need an expensive fast charging infrastructure deployment, can reduce oil consumption by as much as 80% and uses four times as less supply-constrained cobalt than BEVs Sources: Frost & Sullivan analysis Affordability Metal Independence Highway Range Charging Infrastructure Availability Energy efficiency* Oil Independence ICE Most cost competitive alternative 5 Platine in catalytic converters 4 More than 500 km 5 Infrastructur e existing 5 18% Gasoline 22% Diesel 3 100% oil 1 23 BEV High cost of 60kWh battery 3 Lithium and cobalt for 60 kWh battery 2 Up to 300 km 3 Fast charger network & local grid upgrade 2 20% 3 100% electric 5 18 PHEV 20kWh battery 4 Lithium and cobalt for 20 kWh battery 3 More than 500 km 5 Local grid upgrade 4 20% 3 80% electric 20% oil 4 23 FCEV High cost of fuel cell stack 2 Platinum in the fuel cell stack 2 More than 500 km 5 Network of hydrogen station 1 8% 1 100% electric 5 16 * Well to wheel
  13. 13. 13 Plug-in hybrids represent the best trade-off for a sustainable vehicle at a global scale in the short to medium term - up to 2030 Sources: Frost & Sullivan analysis Plug-In Hybrids Electric VehicleInternal Combustion Engine Battery Electric Vehicle Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Metal Independence Highway Range Charging Infrastructure Availability Energy Efficiency Affordability Oil Independence Metal Independence Highway Range Charging Infrastructure Availability Energy Efficiency Affordability Oil Independence Metal Independence Highway Range Charging Infrastructure Availability Energy Efficiency Affordability Oil Independence Metal Independence Highway Range Charging Infrastructure Availability Energy Efficiency Affordability Oil Independence
  14. 14. 14 What if the electric car of the future was not a car? Sources: Frost & Sullivan analysis
  15. 15. 15 What if the electric car of the future was a bicycle-car? Source: http://www.jmk-innovation.se/?lang=en Technical specifications PodRide Electric bicycle-car Tesla S Autonomous electric tank PodRide vs. Tesla S Weight 70 kg 2 100 kg 30 times lighter Dimensions 1.8 m x 0.75 m 1.35 m2 5 m x 2 m 10m2 7 times smaller Top speed 25 km/h 225 km/h 10 times more slowly Power 250 W 235 kW 1000 times less powerful Battery capacity 0.7 kWh 70 kWh 100 times smaller Electric range 60 km 450 km 7 times lower Price 3,000 € 80,000 € 25 times cheaper
  16. 16. 16 Electric cars will need more than hype to become mainstream! Media attention for all alternative fuel vehicle technologies - 1980–2013 - Source: Moving beyond alternative fuel hype to decarbonize transportation, Noel Melton, Jonn Axsen & Daniel Sperling, Nature Energy (2016)
  17. 17. 17 Thank you for your attention! Nicolas Meilhan Principal Consultant Energy & Transportation Practices (+33) 1 42 81 23 24 nicolas .meilhan@frost.com

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