Dealing with Urban Mobility Challenges - What can we learn from China?


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  • Ce tour d'horizon est beaucoup plus complet. Les problèmes sont multiples : ressources en pétrole, émissions à réchauffement climatique, pollution, congestion et stationnement. Ils ont des échéances et des échelles différentes. On peut discuter à l'infini tel ou tel point (réserves de lithium et cobalt, temps de recharge, recyclage batteries). Et l'usage des véhicules est très diversifié donc le raisonnement unique et simpliste n'est pas adapté. On ne convaincra pas "facilement" un acheteur de Mercedes classe S d'acheter 2 scooters électriques et un abonnement SNCF Mais quand on prend le tout, on ne voit pas de solution soutenable sans évolution : - vers des véhicules à énergie propre et renouvelable diesel/essence gaz/électrique/électrique renouvelable - remplir les véhicules, ce que l'on peut lire par diminution de masse unitaire mais aussi blablacar - électricité à base de charbon/pétrole/nucléaire/renouvelable - plus d'usage des transports en commun et mobilité douce marche, vélo Cette évolution sera multiforme, par exemple l'hybridation légère en 48 V pour beaucoup de voitures particulières essence, les 2 roues électriques, des 4 roues légers, l’allégement de tous les véhicules, les app de remplissage de véhicule...
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  • Thanks for this interesting analysis. Car pollution in central areas is a real problem for european cities. If I don't see european cities going for quotas on car sales, I think that some sort of constraint needs to be inforced.
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Dealing with Urban Mobility Challenges - What can we learn from China?

  1. 1. Dealing with Urban Mobility Challenges What Can We Learn From China? Xin Ding Consulting Analyst, Frost & Sullivan July 2014
  2. 2. 2 Current Challenges in China’s Urban Cities are Similar to the Concerns in Europe Parking - Beijing: 5.3 mn vehicles vs. 2.7 mn parking slots -Shanghai: 2.6 million vehicles vs. 780, 000 parking slots Poor air quality  Smog Traffic congestion 80% of the roads and 90 % of the junction have almost reached capacity limit in urban Chinese cities with >1 million inhabitants Road Safety Road fatalities at 62,387 in 2011 - 28% are motorcycle users Pollution According to the World Bank, 16 of the world’s 20 cities with the worst air quality are in China Increasing private car ownership and ridershipNoise Fast growing urban population Decline in walking and bicycle using Cities combining with suburbs to form region Insufficient public transportation linking cities and suburbs Increasing disposable income Rapid industrial development Better payment terms to boost car purchase Increasing usage of motorcycles
  3. 3. 3 Impact Trend Fast growing urban population Increased private car ownership and ridership Rapid industrial development Pollution China’s growing urban population is a concern as only 1% of China’s 560 urban cities reach World Health Organisation’s safety norms for air quality •Vehicle emissions contribute up to 60% of air pollution in large cities  60% of particulate from heavy diesel-powered trucks  22% of particulate from passenger vehicles •PM 2.5 reaches 4 times norm limits in major urban cities:  In 2010, more than 7,770 premature deaths were directly linked to PM 2.5 pollution in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Xi’an  3 times as high as traffic casualties Drivers Beijing, January 2013, central district seen from above in heavy smog Source: Greenpeace and Beijing University, 2010Source: NASA low high
  4. 4. 4 Traffic Congestion The imbalance between rapid growing private car ownership and the slower pace of road construction has caused severe traffic congestion in China’s urban cities Private car ownership increased from 12 mn in 2003 to 93 mn in 2012 •Shanghai in the past decade:  Growth in private car ownership = 364 %  Increase in road capacity = 110% •Guangzhou in the past 5 years:  Growth in private car ownership = 100 %  Increase in road capacity = 2 % A 62-mile-long traffic jam on a highway leading to Beijing on its ninth day, 2010 Impact Trend Fast growing urban population Increased private car ownership and ridership Imbalance between the fast growing traffic and the pace of road construction Insufficient public transportation both inside cities and linking cities and suburbs Drivers low high
  5. 5. 5 Road Safety Combining insufficient traffic management with inexperienced drivers and lax driving habits, China has become one of the biggest contributors to the world’s traffic fatalities • With only 3% of the world’s vehicles, China accounts for 24% of the world’s traffic fatalities • Road fatalities at 62,387 in 2011 - 28% are motorcycle users • In 2011, the mortality rate from traffic accidents was 8.7 per 100,000 people in urban areas • Traffic accidents cost the Chinese economy $21 billion a year. Impact Trend Inefficient regulation/management on vehicles and circulation: scooters, motorcycles and cars Inexperienced drivers due to loose execution on getting driving licenses Lax driving habits Inefficient public transportation Poor road conditions Drivers Scooters & bicycles circulate between passenger cars , going into different directions: very likely to cause traffic jam and road accident low high Source: WTO September 2012, Shanghai: north-south and east-west traffic to each other and lack of traffic police to ease. Source: Dong Fang Daily
  6. 6. 6 Parking Private car ridership rise, along with the lack of regulations (on parking resources, prices, proper development) and lack of management have led to a nation wide parking shortage Impact Trend Insufficient laws on forcing property owners to provide adequate parking for cars, scooters, bicycles and delivery vehicles Insufficient management on parking lots Increased private car ownership and ridership Drivers • Severe parking shortage in large urban cities:  Beijing:2.7 mn parking spaces (including 780 k in residential areas) vs. 5.3 mn motor vehicles in the city Shanghai: 780 k parking slots vs. 2.6 mn vehicles  Chongqing: short 190 k parking spaces and the deficit is growing by 400 spaces / day Xi’an: a deficit of 400 k parking spaces • Parking fees likely account for more than 1/3 of the annual costs of owning a car for owners who must pay for parking. An open-air car park in Tianjin City with 90 parking slots, 2010 Crowded road side parking with car parking inside a playground, Taiyuan city, 2010 low high Source: People’s Daily, Xinhua News
  7. 7. 7 Transport Management 7 Major Initiatives have been Carried out by the Chinese Government around 3 Pillars – Reduce Car Footprint Reduction, Transport Management, Promote Green Transportation Reduce Car Footprint Quota on new car plate license 1 Restriction on circulation 2 Improved public transportation 4 Dedicated lanes for bus & bikes 5 Government push for car electrification 6 Small fuel-efficient vehicles 7 Increased parking fees3 Promote Green Transportation
  8. 8. 8 1 – Quota on New Car Plate License 4 cities in China have now implemented quota on new car plate licensing, some through a plate lottery, some through auctions even bidding  Resulted in the drop of car sales 2011 2012 20172013 2014 2015 2016 Initiatives Results Beijing From 2011, new registration limited at 240,000 per year through license plate lottery Beijing By the end of 2017, total motor vehicle park at 6 mn (vs. 5.2 mn end of 2012) Guangzhou From 2012, new registration limited at 120,000 per year. (50% license plate lottery including 10% green vehicles + 50% plate auction) Nationwide 8 new cities intent to implement quota on new registration in 2014 Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking Beijing Car sales dropped 56% in 2012 Guangzhou • Car sales dropped 30% in 2012 • 60% mobility using public transportation in 2012 Nationwide Car sales expected to drop approximately 400,000, which accounts for 2% of national sales Beijing 25% reduction of total amount of pollutants emission from motor vehicle Transferability to European cities
  9. 9. 9 Wenzhou Guangdong Guangzhou Harbin Shenyang Shenzhen Zhuhai Beijing Tianjin Shanghai Dalian Nanjing Suzhou Jiangsu Hefei Hangzhou Urumqi Hohhot Fuzhou Xiamen Changchun Jinan QingdaoShijiazhuang Zhengzhou Taiyuan Guiyang Changsha Nanchang Wuhan Haikou Chengdu Nanning Chongqing Yinchuan Lanzhou Xi’an Kunming Xining Beijing During restriction period in 2009: • Traffic volume ↓19.5% • Average speed on road network ↑15% • PM10 emission ↓7% 2 - Restriction on Circulation Most tier 1 & 2 cities limited motorcycle use due to safety & environmental concerns. Some also limited car use  Reduced traffic and decreased pollution level for short-term. Motorcycle authorized Motorcycle limited (by time period, areas and license) Motorcycle banned in central areas and/or stopped releasing license Electric Scooters banned or limited Car circulation limited Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking Initiatives Nationwide Restriction of motorcycle circulation in most urban cities Results Foshan: Weigh of motorcycle in urban mobility dropped from 38.6% to 19.7% Guangzhou: • ↓20% accidents related to motorcycles, • ↓8% related death Kunming: ↓35% death related to motorcycles Beijing Car Use Restriction based on odd and even-numbered license plates (during certain periods) Transferability to European cities
  10. 10. 10 Beijing Started in April 2011 charge higher parking fees in non-residential areas from 7am-9pm:  Parking fee paid per car / day raised to 100-150 yuan 3 – Increased Parking Fees Beijing has tripled its parking price in 13 central districts through a policy carried out in April 2011  Reduced parking usage and traffic volume after first month of implementation. Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking Initiatives Results Beijing 1st month of implementation: • Traffic volume ↓12% on average • ↓25-35 minutes traffic jam in central areas • Usage of car parking ↓23% Roadside Parking Open-air Ground Parking Underground Parking 5 6 5 5 8 15 (from the 2nd hour) Before After Before After Before After Parking price in central areas (price/hr in yuan) Transferability to European cities
  11. 11. 11 4 – Improved Public Transportation The initiatives to improve public transportation not only include building new infrastructures but also increasing convenience in links between different public transportation modes City Suburbs Travel distance Intercity •Bus •Metro •Tramway•Bicycle •Bicycle •Suburb buses •Suburb trains •Intercity Trains •Intercity Buses Initiatives Results Beijing •7 new subway lines between 2009-2012 •153 new bus lines between 2009-2012 • 16 subway lines in 2012 covering 397 km (+50% compared to 2009) • Metro + Bus accounts for 39.7% of mobility methods in 2012, compared to 29.8% in 2005 Hangzhou Bicycle stands next to subway entrances & bus stops  to ease commute between residence and the closest public transportation • Number of bicycle rent has doubled in 4 years 2009 (3.5 mn / year) vs. 2012 (7 mn / year) • Bicycle rent helped reduce CO2 emission 370 k tonne saving from 2009-2012 if compared with private car ride Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking Transferability to European cities
  12. 12. 12 5 – Dedicated Lanes for Buses & Bikes Traffic management has been improved by prioritising buses with dedicated lanes and by separating motor vehicles from non-motor vehicles. Initiatives Results Transferability to European cities • Installed dedicated lane for buses to  prioritise public transportation  ease traffic management • 14 urban cities in China now have developed BRT systems • 5 on the plan Kunming (first Chinese city to install dedicated bus lane, in 1999) Public transit mode share increased from 6% (1999) to 24% (2010). Average waiting time for bus ↓59% The bus lane increased capacity from 2,000 passengers/h per direction to 7,500 Bus Lane Bikes and Scooters BRT in Kunming City Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking Transferability to European cities
  13. 13. 13 6 – Government Push for Car Electrification Electric vehicles have been promoted by the government through subsidiaries & tax reductions  However, it hasn’t been effective to push the individual purchase of EVs Initiatives Results Transferability to European cities Governmental objective in the development of EVs By 2015, sales target of 500,000 electric & hybrid vehicles (5-year-plan 2011-2015) • 80% of 27,800 new energy vehicles (electric, hybrid, fuel cell & natural gas) sold in 2012 were buses • Sales of electric vehicles:  17,642 in 2013 vs. 12,791 in 2012 (38% increase)  less than 1% of total vehicle sales Incentives and tax reductions To promote EV sales To ease R&D of EV industry and industries supporting this matter (such as battery suppliers) Incentives on purchase of electric vehicle implemented in urban cities (Shanghai, Changchun, Shenzhen, Hefei, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, etc) Up to 60,000 yuan per vehicle for 100% electric passenger cars Electric cars exempted from 10% purchase tax up to end 2017 Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking Transferability to European cities
  14. 14. 14 7 – Small Fuel-Efficient Vehicles Many automotive constructors see opportunities in small vehicles in China due to severe pollution, congestion and parking shortage Initiatives Results Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking Increased sales of 1.6L and below passenger cars in 2009-2010: In 2009, ↑71% sales volume, reaching 7.2 mn units =70% of total passenger car sales, reaching its highest market share in history Governmental 3000 yuan state subsidy to owners of 1.6L and below passenger cars that consume 20% less energy than the current standard Governmental 2-year-long tax reduction program for purchase of 1.6L and below passenger cars  Vehicle purchasing tax at 5% (2009) and 7.5% (2010) instead of 10% Industrial • Vehicle constructors see rising opportunities in small vehicles in China due to high level of pollution and congestion, as well as increasing parking shortage • Toyota, Dongfeng, Ford, Nissan, VW etc intend to increase proportion of small vehicles in their product portfolio in China to reduce emission and promote energy saving 2009 2010 20152011 2012 2013 2014 Toyota China released in 2013 a small car strategy: A New VIOS and Toyota YARIS was released GAC Toyota plans to sell 500,000 units in 2015, of which 40% are small & medium cars Transferability to European cities
  15. 15. 15 Most Efficient Solutions to Urban Mobility Challenges Restriction on car circulation, improved public transportation, dedicated lane for bus & bikes and small fuel-efficient vehicles European CountriesSolutions from China Already in place Good idea? TransferablePollution Congestion Safety Parking Quota on new vehicle purchase 1  Restriction on circulation 2 Increased parking fees 3  Improved public transportation 4 Dedicated lane for bus & bikes 5  Government push for car electrification 6 Small fuel-efficient vehicles 7    
  16. 16. 16 Nicolas Meilhan Principal Consultant Energy & Transportation Practices (+33) 1 42 81 23 24 nicolas