This is the way Pew Internet measures content creation….
Patrick TuckerComputer science, data-mining, and a growing network of sensors and information-collection software programs are giving rise to a phenomenal occurrence, the knowable future…. The Internet is turning prediction into an equation…. The basic [prediction] process is not dramatically different from what plays out when the human brain makes a prediction. These systems analyze sensed data in the context of stored information to extrapolate a pattern the same way the early earthquake warning system used its network of sensors to detect the P wave and thus project the S wave. What differs between these systems, between humans predictors and machine predictors, is the sensing tools. Humans are limited to two eyes, two ears, and a network of nerve endings. Computers can sense via a much wider menagerie of data collection tools…. There are dangers associated with this phenomenon. Moveon.org president Eli Pariser, in his recently released book, The Filter Bubble describes it as a type of ‘informational determinism,’ the inevitable result of too much Web personalization. The Filter Bubble is a state where ‘What you've clicked on in the past determines what you see next—a Web history you're doomed to repeat. You can get stuck in a static, ever-narrowing version of yourself--an endless you-loop.’ Futurist machines are taking over the job of inventing the future…. But even those aspects of the future that are the most potentially beneficial to humankind will have disastrous effects if we fail to plan for them.
Networked: The New Social Operating System … … and Organizational Operating System NEXTGOV December 3, 2012 Lee Rainie: Director, Pew Internet Project Email: Lrainie@pewinternet.org PewInternet.org
What is the Pew Internet Project?A comprehensive and groundbreaking new report Number Of Usersreleased Monday by the Pew Research Center’sInternet and American Life Project has found that Who Actuallyonly“As itusers of Facebook derive pleasure of any .... four turns out, the vast majority of humankind from the to become depressed when they beings tend popular social networking website. Enjoy Facebook see the past five the report, the life summarized According to years of their remainder ofthe 950 million people registered with Facebook, Down To 4 right there in front of them in a sad littledespite using the site on a regular basis, take no timeline,” said lead researcher John Elliott.joy in doing so, and in fact feel a profound senseof hopelessness and despair immediately uponlogging in…
The traits of networked information• Pervasively generated • Real-time /• Pervasively consumed just-in-time• Personal • Timeless /• Participatory / social searchable• Linked • Defined and structured by• Continually edited “algorithmic• Multi-platformed authority”
Digital Revolution 1: BroadbandInternet (85%) and Broadband at home (66%)
Networked creators and curators (among internet users) • 69% are social networking site users • 59% share photos and videos • 46% creators; 41% curators • 37% contribute rankings and ratings • 33% create content tags • 30% share personal creations • 26% post comments on sites and blogs • 16% use Twitter • 14% are bloggers • 18% (of smartphone owners) share their locations; 74% get location info and do location sharing
Impact on knowledge and organizations• Rise of “fifth estate” of civic and community actors (including citizen “vigilantes”)• Information becomes “networked” through links, crowdsourcing, perpetual editing/feedback• Harder to control organizational messages to the public
Revolution 2: Mobile – 89% of adults 46% smartphones / 25% tablets 321.7 Total U.S. population: 315.5 million 2012
Apps > 50% of adults50% % of cell owners who have 43%40% downloaded apps 38%30% 29% 22%20%10%0% Sept 2009 May 2010 August 2011 April 2012
Impact on knowledge and organizations• Information becomes pervasive – a “third skin”• Attention zones change – “Continuous partial attention” – Deep dives – Info snacking• Real-time, just-in-time searches and availability change process of acquiring and using information – Spontaneous activities – Be “ready for your closeup”• Augmented reality highlights the merger of data world and real world
Digital Revolution 3 Social networking – 59% of all adults 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+100% 86% 87% 92% % of internet users80% 76% 67% 68% 73%60% 61% 49% 48% 49% 57%40% 47% 25% 29% 25% 38%20% 26% 9% 8% 11% 7% 4% 13% 6% 7% 0% 1% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Impact on knowledge and organizations• Composition and character of people’s social networks change AND they become important channels of learning and influence• Self-learning and DIY learning are elevated• Amateur experts sit aside credentialed experts• Organizations can become “helper nodes” in people’s networks
Meta-impact on knowledge and organizations • New pathways into people’s attention zones • More people in your kitchen • More demands for transparency • Greater imperative to know what your workers know – helps organizations outside the civil service structure • More attempts at breaking and entering
The impact of Big Data?http://www.pewinternet.org/Reports/2012/Future-of-Big-Data.aspx
Future of Big Data• Thanks to many changes, including the building of "the Internet of Things," human and machine analysis of large data sets will improve social, political, and economic intelligence by 2020. The rise of what is known as "Big Data" will facilitate things like "nowcasting" (real-time "forecasting" of events); the development of "inferential software" that assesses data patterns to project outcomes; and the creation of algorithms for advanced correlations that enable new understanding of the world. Overall, the rise of Big Data is a huge positive for society in nearly all respects.
Future of Big Data• Thanks to many changes, including the building of "the Internet of Things," human and machine analysis of Big Data will cause more problems than it solves by 2020. The existence of huge data sets for analysis will engender false confidence in our predictive powers and will lead many to make significant and hurtful mistakes. Moreover, analysis of Big Data will be misused by powerful people and institutions with selfish agendas who manipulate findings to make the case for what they want. And the advent of Big Data has a harmful impact because it serves the majority (at times inaccurately) while diminishing the minority and ignoring important outliers. Overall, the rise of Big Data is a big negative for society in nearly all respects.
Future of Big DataImprove intelligence Cause new problems 53% 39%
Themes• Jeff Jarvis: “Demonizing data … is demonizing knowledge” … and the analytical tools will only get better• Human capacities are the key to its success and likely shortcomings• DIY analytics/monitoring will be as helpful as Big Data numbers crunching• Don’t downplay the “dark side” of surveillance society• “How to lie with the Internet of Things” / “distribution of harms” (Oscar Gandy)
Surprise/delight• Patrick Tucker “Computer science, data-mining, and a growing network of sensors and information-collection software programs are giving rise to a phenomenal occurrence, the knowable future.”
4th revolution?• Interfaces – haptic, voice, collaborative• Expanded search into video and audio• 3D printing• Internet of Things: Smart appliances and systems• Gamification of information