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Cpv industry report 2010 summary


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Cpv industry report 2010 summary

  1. 1. The Concentrated neW Photovoltaics Industry RepoRt oRdeR n oW Report 2010 saVe €150 Get the latest data and analysis that will enable you to make your CPV ventures a success What you need to know to formulate a winning CPV strategy… Based on interviews with 50+ major CPV players, primary research and independent analysis, this report is your strategic resource to overcoming the commercialisation challenges of CPV. Find answers to your most pressing CPV issues … Report benefits: n Find out what the current cost of CPV is and what this means for your business n Get an independent assessment of where the CPV industry stands right now and where it’s heading in the near future n Understand which CPV manufacturers are ahead of the pack in The Concentrated terms of installed capacity and technology Photovoltaics Industry n Identify the hottest growth opportunities and plan your strategy Report 2010 accordingly Published: May 2010 n Learn which companies have invested in CPV and how much they Format: Secure PDF have committed to the industry Extent: 85 Pages n Discover the growth prospects of this industry and what this Price: €1295 means for both module manufacturers and component providers Early Bird Price: €1145 Expires 4th of June In this report you’ll find the latest data, analysis and Ready to buy? insights on the CPV industry, including… 3 easy ways to get your report now! n n The latest LCOE cost estimates for CPV technology Realistic cost breakdown per CPV plant component n Detailed forecast of installed CPV capacity in the US market Online: until 2015 Click here to purchase n Thorough analysis on the barriers and drivers to the CPV Call: Carlos Marquez on industry based on 50+ interviews with all main CPV players +44 (0)20 7375 7543 n A-Z of the CPV value chain, including main players and their US toll free: role in the value chain 1 800 814 3459 x 301 n Profiles of all main CPV solar panel and module Email: manufacturers and cell providers Act nOW order today and secure your €150 discount
  2. 2. The Concentrated Photovoltaics Industry Report 2010 Get the latest data and analysis that will enable you to make your CPV ventures a success Some of the Report’s Key Findings… Leading companies such as ArimaEco, Concentrix and Solfocus provided exclusive insights for this report. Find out what they more than other 50 CPV manufacturers, component providers and financiers have to say about the industry. n Levelized Energy Costs (LCOE) could fall as low as $0.08/kWh by 2015 from $0.26/kWh in 2010 n CPV gets a boost from the Far East, with a 59 MW project in Taiwan amongst other projects n Highest cost CPV manufacturers are 115% more expensive than the lower cost manufacturers n HCPV installed costs are set to fall 49% by 2015, from $4.84/Watt to 2.47/Watt in 2015 n LCPV installed costs reductions will reach 65%, from $5.05/Watt in 2010 to $1.75/Watt in 2015 n Tracking is the highest single expenditure in HCPV, at 21% of total installed costs These and other industry developments suggest that 2010 could be the year of CPV. Find out how to make the most of this changing industry with the Concentrated Photovoltaics Industry Report 2010. Table 14: HCPV LCOE costs Other (7.5%) Cells (17.5%) Inverter (7%) Segment LCOE 2010 ($) LCOE 2015 ($) HCPV overall 0.27 0.14 HCPV high tier 0.50 0.25 HCPV mid tier 0.22 0.13 Optics (11%) Assembly (20%) HCPV low tier 0.14 0.08 Tracking (21%) Balance of System (16%) Figure 27: HCPV component cost breakdown This report, written by independent expert Andy Extance in conjunction with CPV Today, gives you the latest data on costs, installed capacity and future projects that will enable you to plan your strategy to make the most of this rapidly changing industry. Act nOW order today and secure your €150 discount
  3. 3. The Concentrated Photovoltaics Industry Report 2010 Get the latest data and analysis that will enable you to make your CPV ventures a success Chapter summary: The Concentrated Photovoltaics Industry Report 2010 1. Concentrated Photovoltaic Technology 1.1 Principles of CPV 1.2 High Concentration, Medium Concentration and Low Concentration 1.2.1 Solar Cells 1.2.2 Receiver 1.2.3 Optical Elements plus: 1.2.4 Tracking n 37 Figures 1.2.5 Inverter 1.3 Geographical Suitability of CPV n 17 Tables 1.3.1 Solar Resources n CPV Installations Maps 1.3.2 Other Geographical Factors 1.4 Power Range of CPV Installations 2. The CPV Industry The Concentrated Photovoltaics Industry Report 2010 2.1. The CPV Industry in a Nutshell fewer cells to generate an equivalent level of power. Silicon cell Table 7: Optics producers 2.1.1. CPV Drivers manufacturers have a considerable financial interest in supplying as Optics Manufacturers Location Optics Type many cells as possible, and effectively concentration works against The CPV industry them. By contrast GaAs-based triple-junction cell makers only ship Concentrator Optics Cölbe, Germany Fresnel, Secondary optics comparatively small volumes for satellites, and therefore would like The Need for Sustainable, Secure Energy Microsharp Solar Watchfield. UK Fresnel CPV to succeed to raise these volumes. The level of commitment of triple-junction cell makers to CPV may be part of the reason why LPI California, US Fresnel early entrants to the sector, like Solar Systems and Amonix, moved Investor Profit Motive to them from using silicon. However, with silicon cells remaining Isuzu Glass Osaka, Japan Fresnel , Rod lens secondary element in oversupply, manufacturers are maintaining cordial relationships Fresnel Optics Apolda, Germany Fresnel with CPV companies using their products. In some cases there are Fresnel, Secondary optics and reflective Power Company/Electricity User Demands 3M Minnesota, US signs that partnerships between CPV system makers and well-known films silicon cell makers are emerging that will likely enhance concentrating 10x Technology Illinois, US Fresnel technology’s credibility. This phenomenon is currently revolving Fresnel Solar Energy Nanjing, China Fresnel Geographical Situation of Installation around LCPV technology, with firms like Solaria adding single-digit concentration factor optics to standard flat-plate cells. In this way they gain advantages both from concentration, and the familiar cell brands and formats. Country/Region The number of triple-junction cell manufacturers has particularly expanded in recent years. Both start-up companies, like Cyrium, Quantasol and Solar Junction, and established semiconductor Total internal reflection, flat (1) Waveguide (2) Silicone-glass planoconvex primary, glass ball secondary (1) Curved lens (3) 2.1.3 CPV Barriers manufacturers, like RFMD and JDSU, have entered the sector. This Prism lens (3) Plastic optical should be good news for buyers of triple-junction cells, not least front cover (1) because greater competition should lower costs and speed efficiency Solar and Electricity Market Composition increases. The extra suppliers, especially the larger companies, should also help to ease concerns about cell manufacturing capacity. Mirrors (13) They are also well enough established to provide trustworthy long Fresnel lens (26) Power Company/Financier Risk Aversion term warranties, which should aid bankability. Meanwhile the start- ups in particular are introducing innovative technologies, exploiting The Concentrated Photovoltaics Industry Report 2010 nanotechnological approaches to raise cell efficiency. Currently, optics makers appear to have more than adequate capacity MEMS-style Legislative Landscape and Industrial Standards microconcentrator (1) to meet demand, however they can help players higher up the value Fresnel lens and mirrors (1) Lens (1) chain by improving the optical efficiency and acceptance angles of their Holigraphic films (1) products. Figure 24: Breakdown of the types of concentrating optics used in CPV by company 2.1.3 CPV Industry SWOT Analysis 48 Spectrolab Fraunhofer ISE Multijunction concentrators (metamorphic. (metamorphic. Boeing-Spectrolab 36 Three junction (2 terminal, monolithic) 299x conc.) 454x conc.) (latice matched, 44 Two junction (2 terminal, monolithic) Boeing-Spectrolab 364x conc.) Single junction GaAs (metamorphic. 41.6% 236x conc.) 2.1.4 CPV Companies, Component Providers & 40 Single crystal NREL Concentrator (inverted, Boeing CPV Thin film NREL metamorphic Spectrolab 325.7x conc.) 36 Spectrolab (inverted, Crystalline Si Cells metamorphic) Single crystal Japan 33.8% NREL Energy Installed Capacity 32 Multicrystalline (inverted, Thick Si film Varian NREL NREL NREL/ Spectrolab metamorphic Fraunhofer ISE (232x conc) SunPower 1-sun) (216x conc.) 28.8% Thin film Technologies (96x conc.) Amonix 28 27.6% Efficiency (%) Cu (In,Ga)Se2 Stanford (92x conc) UNSW CdTe (140x conc.) Kopin UNSW UNSW UNSW FhG-ISE 25.0% Spire 2.2.1 CPV Value Chain 24 Amorphous Si.H (stabilised) UNSW Nano-, micro, poly-Si Stanford UNSW NREL Cu(In,Ga) Spire Se (14x conc.) FhG-ISE Multijunction polycrystalline Georgia Tech UNSW 20.4% 20 ARCO UNSW Georgia Tech Sharp 20.0% Emerging PV Westinghouse Varian NREL NRELNREL NREL NREL NREL NREL Dye-sensitised cells NREL Sharp (large- 16.7% 2.2.2 CPV Production Capacity 16 University area) Organic cells No. Carolina Univ. Stuttgart (various technologies) State Uni. So. Florida NREL AstroPower NREL (small area) (45 µm thin- United Solar ARCO Boeing NREL (aSi/ncSi/ncSi) Kodak Solarex Euro-CIS United Solar film transfer) (CdTe/CIS) 12.5% 12 Boeing Boeing AMETEK Photon Energy 11.1% Matsushita United Sharp EPFL Solamer Kodak Boeing Solar 8 Monosolar United Solar Kaneka NREL/Konarka Konarka Inc RCA (2 µm on glass) University Linz 6.8% University Boeing Solarex EPFL 3. The Cost of CPV 4 of Maine Groningen Siemens Plextronics RCA RCA University Linz RCA RCA University Linz RCA RCA 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Figure 6: Record solar cell efficiencies2. 3.1. CPV Cost Measures Credit: NREL. increases the mobility of electrons, causing the flow of current to completely dissipated, its temperature rises and its power output falls. 3.1.1 Installed Cost increase slightly, this increase is minor compared to the decrease in Power lost through series resistance also increases in proportion to the voltage. GaAs is less badly affected by this phenomenon than silicon, square of the photocurrent, and becomes especially important at high meaning that it needs less cooling and can produce more reliable cells concentration levels. A third challenge of high concentration systems 3.1.2 Levelized Cost of Energy than its more common rival. comes because high currents and temperatures will worsen any slight Temperature sensitivity is one part of the reason why the levels imperfections in the solar cell. This can ultimately lead to their failure. The Concentrated Photovoltaics Industry Report 2010 of concentration used in CPV are limited. Assuming an optimal chip efficiency of 40%, 2000 suns would still require 120 W/cm2 of heat to 1.2.2 Receiver 3.2 Installed Cost and Component Cost of CPV be dissipated from the chip3. By comparison, NASA’s space shuttles experience 10 W/cm2 during re-entry, and the throat of their rocket nozzles reaches 100 W/cm2. If the heat absorbed by a cell is not Solar cells have to be mounted on a receiver to extract the current generated and to dissipate and remove heat. Current extraction is Mechanically stacked achieved using thick wires or ribbonsmulti-terminal that are soldered to the cells, 3.2.1 HCPV Cost Breakdown per Component Monolithically integrated two-terminal 14 3.2.2 LCPV Cost Breakdown per Component CPV 1st cell Decreasing band gap 3.3 CPV Levelized Cost of Electricity Front contact 1st cell 2nd cell 3.3.1 HCPV 2nd cell 3rd cell n-doped Si 3.3.2 LCPV p-doped Si Back contact 3rd cell Figure 4: A single-junction silicon cell Figure 5: Two approaches for multi-junction solar cells4. In the mechanically stacked approach on the left single- 4. Installed Capacity Forecast junction cells of different semiconductor materials are manufactured and stacked on top of each other. This leads to multiple terminals which have to be connected properly in the module. In the monolithic approach on the right, semiconductor materials with different band-gap energies are grown epitaxially on top of each other. The internal series connection of the subcells is achieved by tunnel diodes. Note that neither approach is limited to just three junctions, as shown here, and that the two can be combined. 4.1 Forecast Parameters and Methodology The band gap of GaAs is nearly narrow enough to absorb the whole spectrum of sunlight irradiating the Earth. As they can absorb a high proportion of the light hitting them GaAs cells can be just a few microns highest performance systems. These levels of performance can only be achieved if the cell contains the highest quality semiconductor materials. This requirement adds to the comparatively higher price of 4.2 Key Factors in US CPV Market Growth thick, compared to more than 100 microns for silicon cells. GaAs itself in raising the cost of the highest performance cells. However, today’s record efficiency devices only use this as a One of the main features to be taken into account when dealing springboard. As well as a GaAs-based middle junction, the germanium with CPV cells is their thermal behaviour. At high temperatures, the 4.2.1 CPV’s Place in the Solar Market wafers that they’re fabricated on are normally used to produce another performance of both silicon and GaAs cells falls as the semiconductor’s The Concentrated Photovoltaics Industry Report 2010 junction is produced from gallium indium junction. Then a third conductivity increases. The higher conductivity balances out the phosphide (GaInP), with each junction optimised to absorb light from distribution of electrons and holes, reducing the magnitude of the 1. Concentrated Photovoltaic Technology their respective areas of the spectrum. Such designs have delivered electric field at the junction. This in turn inhibits charge separation, 4.2.2 US Government Policies efficiencies above 40% and are found in the highest concentration, which lowers the voltage across the cell. While the higher temperature 13 4.2.3 Anticipated Demand for Renewable Energy 1.1 Principles of CPV with cheaper optics. It also provides the opportunity to use the world’s CPV Anyone who played with a magnifying glass in the sunshine as a child most efficient cells, which have been specifically designed to work with will have an elementary understanding of solar concentration. In this concentrating optics in order to achieve their records. 4.2.4 Enhanced Cell and Module Efficiency simple experiment, the lens bends the sunlight that is initially falling across its surface, focussing its energy down to an area as small as a single point. Concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) systems use similar Current CPV technologies are based on mirrors and/or lenses able to concentrate sunlight to take advantage of these benefits in power generation. In quantitative terms, producing one watt at a 4.2.5 Declining LCOE optical principles to focus direct sunlight onto semiconductor cells that transform solar energy into electricity. Concentrating the light collects the same amount of solar energy as today’s dominant flat- concentration ratio of 1000 suns and 25% cell efficiency requires 1775 times less semiconductor surface than producing the same watt without concentration with an ordinary cell at efficiency of 14%1. While 4.2.6 CPV Technology Deployment Multiple plate PV panels, using a smaller overall solar cell area. Such a system offers competitive power generation, matching or even exceeding rival technologies’ output but replacing costly semiconductor solar cells doing this makes CPV collectors significantly more complex than standard PV modules, using substantially smaller cell areas holds the promise of lower costs. 4.3 Overall CPV Installation Forecast Through 2015 4.3.1 Optimistic Scenario Modules 4.3.2 Moderate Scenario 4.3.3 Pessimistic Scenario Tracker mechanism 4.4 Regional CPV installation forecast through to 2015 4.5 Cell Market Through 2015 Figure 2: CPV collectors: dish (left), pedestal (middle) and trough (right) configurations. Source: IEC 62108, 2007 10 5. Profiles of CPV Technologies in the Market Act now - Secure your report today and get a €150 discount
  4. 4. The Concentrated Photovoltaics Industry Report 2010 Get the latest data and analysis that will enable you to make your CPV ventures a success Previous CPV Today reports buyers… ■■ABB ■■Korea Institute of Energy ■■Arima EcoEnergy Research (KIER) Technologies ■■Optoelectronics Research ■■Asahi Kasei Corporation Centre ■■Bechtel Enterprises ■■Petrobras 3rd Concentrated ■■Electric Power Research ■■Quanta Sol Photovoltaics Institute ■■RFMD Summit Europe ■■Fresnel Optics ■■Robert Bosch GmbH ■■Gyeonggi Technopark ■■Samsung Electronics November 18-19, Seville, Spain ■■Hyundai Engineering ■■Soitec Proving CPV´s ■■Institute of Microelectronics ■■StatoilHydro commercial viability: Technology ■■Stirling Energy Systems ■■ISOWATT Made SL ■■Sumitomo n Building the track ■■JDSU ■■Umicore record ■■KIMM (Korea Institute of ■■Veeco n Cutting costs Machinery & Materials) ■■And Many More…. n Securing finance ■■Kuraray Co. To find out more visit About the author Andy Extance is a freelance science journalist and market analyst. Until June 2009 he was news editor for Compound Semiconductor magazine, where he regularly covered the CPV industry. He also has several years experience working in the chemical industry, including producing packaging materials for photovoltaic and other semiconductor applications. He has an MChem in chemistry from the University of Southampton, UK, and is a Chartered Chemist and Chartered Scientist. oRdeR noW The Concentrated Order your report now & receive your €150 Discount Photovoltaics Industry Report 2010 Offer valid until the 4th of June 2010 Published: May 2010 Online: click here to purchase Format: Secure PDF Extent: 85 Pages Call: Tel: +44 (0)20 7375 7543 Price: $1295 US toll free: 1 800 814 3459 x 301 Early Bird Price: €1145 Expires 4th of June Email: ACT nOW ORDER TODAY AnD SECURE YOUR €150 DISCOUnT