Erste Group: Boommarkt Türkei

18,513 views

Published on

Die volkswirtschaftliche Entwicklung geht in der Türkei weiter steil bergauf. Nach einem Wirtschaftswachstum von 2,5% im Vorjahr, rechnen die Erste Group Analysten mit rund 4% für das laufende Jahr. Im Vergleich zur Eurozone, wo aktuell 0,1% erwartet werden, ist das ein enormer Vorsprung.

Türkischer Aktienmarkt: Potential noch nicht ausgeschöpft
Mit einer positiven Performance von mehr als +58% hat der türkische Aktienmarkt in 2012 Europa deutlich hinter sich lassen können. Ein Grund für diese Performance war die hohe Liquidität. Denn für internationale Investoren ist das Thema Liquidität mehr denn je ein wichtiges Argument. Das weiterhin hohe BIP-Wachstum, die geringe Verschuldung und die attraktive Bewertung sind weitere wichtige Argumente.

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
18,513
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
17,426
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
4
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Erste Group: Boommarkt Türkei

  1. 1. ERSTE GROUP Boom-Markt Türkei: Überhitzung oder Investmentchance? Henning Eßkuchen, Leiter CEE Equity Research Markus Kaller, Leiter Retail Sales Österreich
  2. 2. ERSTE GROUP February 2013 Turkey Outlook2 Growth: Rebalancing over & GDP to pick up Source: TURKSTAT, Erste Group Research Consumption and investment weakened in 2012Consumption and investment weakened in 2012 But, approaching the end in rebalancing....But, approaching the end in rebalancing.... 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 Exports Imports Quarterly Exports and Imports (Real, S.A., 2003=100) 95 115 135 155 175 195 215 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 Private Consumption (S.A.) Private Investment (S.A.) * 1Q98=100
  3. 3. ERSTE GROUP February 2013 Turkey Outlook3 Growth: Signs of a slight recovery in consumption Consumer credits have gained momentumConsumer credits have gained momentum Source: CBT, BRSA, TURKSTAT, CNBC-e, Automotive Manufacturers Association, Erste Group Research Consumer confidence revives, albeit from low levelsConsumer confidence revives, albeit from low levels 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 Consumer Confidence Index Consumption Index (s.a., right) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec FX-Adjusted Trend Grow th of Consumer Credits* 2013 2006-2012 2012 *Trend growth is the annualized13-week average change
  4. 4. ERSTE GROUP February 2013 Turkey Outlook4 Inflation: Benign core trend to prevail Sustainability of the decline in expectations is keySustainability of the decline in expectations is key Source: CBT, TURKSTAT, Erste Group Research Flat headline and core inflation in 2013Flat headline and core inflation in 2013 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13 CPI Core-I Forecast 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 12-month inflation expectation 24-month inflation expectation Inflation target
  5. 5. ERSTE GROUP February 2013 Turkey Outlook5 Monetary Policy: Low rates, but higher RRR Source: CBT, TURKSTAT, Erste Group Research Monetary policy was accomodative in 2H12Monetary policy was accomodative in 2H12 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 CBT's blended cost of funding CBT's blended cost of funding (4-week average) Lower bound of the corridor Upper bound of the corridor Policy rate
  6. 6. ERSTE GROUP February 2013 Turkey Outlook6 Yields: Opportunity for sustainably low yields Bond market outperformed peers since upgradeBond market outperformed peers since upgrade Source: CBT, Bloomberg, Erste Group Research Bond yields are at historical lowsBond yields are at historical lows * EM average 10Y yield is calculated as the average of the nine EM countries (Brazil, Czech Republic, Hungary, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, Indonesia, South Korea and Colombia), weighted with respect to their GDPs. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Dec-05 Jan-07 Feb-08 Mar-09 Apr-10 May-11 Jun-12 Jul-13 Blended cost of funding (c.a.) Benchmark bond yield (c.a.) 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Turkey vs. EM 10Y spread Turkey 10Y bond yield (right) EM weighted average 10Y yield* (right)
  7. 7. ERSTE GROUP February 2013 Turkey Outlook7 Investment Grade: Implications • Achieving investment grade (IG) status extends the investor base, lowers borrowing costs and facilitates access to external financing • IG status is awarded by relative strength in capital inflows • The CBT will address the side effects of a deterioration in the external balance and debt by keeping interest rates low and tightening by macroprudential tools • Fitch’s rating is now one notch above Moody’s and two notches above S&P’s. Moody’s assigns a positive outlook, meaning that the next agency upgrading to investment zone is more likely to be Moody’s, possibly in 2013 «CDS» «i» S&P Fitch Moody's Prime AAA AAA Aaa AA+ AA+ Aa1 AA AA Aa2 AA- AA- Aa3 A+ A+ A1 A A A2 A- A- A3 BBB+ BBB+ Baa1 BBB BBB Baa2 BBB- BBB- Baa3 BB+ BB+ Ba1 BB BB Ba2 BB- BB- Ba Rating Scale High Grade Upper Medium Grade Low er Medium Grade Non-Investment Grade - Speculative Investment Grade Turkey is here w ith outlookpositive on Moody's rating and stable on S&P as w ellas Fitch.
  8. 8. ERSTE GROUP February 2013 Turkey Outlook8 Fundamentals Turkey vs CEE Source: Factset, Erste Group Research EPS revision rate - TurkeyEPS revision rate - Turkey EPS revision rate - CEEEPS revision rate - CEE
  9. 9. ERSTE GROUP February 2013 Turkey Outlook9 Convergence to mean Source: Factset, Erste Group Research Gap between current P/E and historical averagesGap between current P/E and historical averages Turkey should be worth a double digit P/E
  10. 10. ERSTE GROUP February 2013 Turkey Outlook10 Liqudity Source: FESE, FEAS, Erste Group Research If there is flow into the region, Turkey is the preferred targetIf there is flow into the region, Turkey is the preferred target EUR 1bn average daily turnover
  11. 11. ERSTE GROUP February 2013 Turkey Outlook11 Blue-Sky Scenario: ISE-100 at 100,000 • We conducted what-if analyses to compute the fair values of the ISE-100 by using the peak multiples of the major stocks since the beginning of 2010. • Our analysis is based on 12-month trailing and forward-looking multiples and the peak multiples of each stock are computed individually. For each stock, the timing of the peak multiple may differ from that of the ISE. • In our model, we employed P/BV multiple for banks, EV/EBITDA multiple for the major non-bank companies and the sum-of-the-parts model for the conglomerates. • Our sample universe is formed by 38 stocks, which represents 87% of the ISE-100. Source: Bloomberg, ESI -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 85,000 90,000 95,000 100,000 105,000 Current @ 11.2x of 2013E P/E @ 12-mth trailing multiples @ 12-mth fwd looking multiples Target Value of ISE-100 Upside Potential
  12. 12. ERSTE GROUP February 2013 Turkey Outlook12 Summary  After the strong rally in the market, we remain cautiously optimistic for the ISE for the near- term.  Profit-taking activity in equities in the early months of 2013 as investors digest their recent gains is just a healthy move  We believe that possible profit-taking will be short-lived as the strong economic outlook and liquidity will outweigh any pessimism in the market.  The analyst community has already reflected positive expectations to their estimates and target prices to a certain extent, in our view. Improving fundamentals are needed as support to remove market from somewhat fragile footing  Our Blue-Sky Scenario indicates that the fair value of the ISE-100 could be as high as 100,000, pointing to a strong upside.
  13. 13. ERSTE GROUP Türkei-Investments Index-Zertifikate, Hebelprodukte und Fonds Markus Kaller Erste Group Bank AG
  14. 14. ERSTE GROUP  IBTX EUR-Index von Wr. Börse berechnet  kapitalisierungsgewichteter Preisindex  Umsatzstärksten und höchstkapitalisiertesten Aktien der Istanbul Stock Exchange  Anzahl Unternehmen: maximal 20 Aktien  Gewichtungsgrenze: maximal 20% pro Aktie  Währung Euro (nicht Währungsgesichert)  Überprüfung Zusammensetzung: halbjährlich (März, September) Indexzertifikat (ISIN: AT0000A0X8F9)  Laufzeit: Open-end  Bezugsverhältnis: 0,01 Türkei-Index von Wr. Börse: IBTX EUR Index 14
  15. 15. ERSTE GROUP IBTX EUR Index 15 Titel Anteil am Index TURKIYE GARANTI BANKASI 14,84% AKBANK T.A.S. 14,26% TURKIYE IS BANKASI-C 9,37% TURKIYE HALK BANKASI 8,71% HACI OMER SABANCI HOLDING 8,29% BIM BIRLESIK MAGAZALAR AS 6,22% TURKCELL ILETISIM HIZMET AS 5,79% KOC HOLDING AS 5,59% TUPRAS-TURKIYE PETROL RAFINE 4,86% TURK TELEKOMUNIKASYON AS 4,14% YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI 3,59% TURK HAVA YOLLARI AO 3,14% TURKIYE VAKIFLAR BANKASI T-D 3,09% EREGLI DEMIR VE CELIK FABRIK 2,47% EMLAK KONUT GAYRIMENKUL YATI 1,87% PETKIM PETROKIMYA HOLDING AS 0,98% ASYA KATILIM BANKASI AS 0,96% KOZA ANADOLU METAL MADENCILI 0,78% MIGROS TICARET A.S 0,58% IHLAS HOLDING 0,45%
  16. 16. ERSTE GROUP  ISE30-Index von Istanbul Stock Exchange berechnet  kapitalisierungsgewichteter Preisindex  Umsatzstärksten und höchstkapitalisiertesten Aktien der Istanbul Stock Exchange  Anzahl Unternehmen: 30 Aktien  TRY  Überprüfung Zusammensetzung: vierteljährlich (März, Juni, September, Dezember) Indexzertifikat (ISIN: AT0000A0ZEG6)  Laufzeit: Open-end  Bezugsverhältnis: 0,001 Türkei-Index von Istanbul Stock Exchange: ISE30 Index 16
  17. 17. ERSTE GROUP ISE30 Index 17 50% 13% 8% 7% 5% 5% 3% 3% 6% ISE 30 Branchenstruktur Bank Industriekonglomerat Telekommunikation Lebensmittel Erdöl & Erdgas Bergbau & Metalle Fluglinie Haushalt Sonstige Titel Anteil am Index  Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS 14,62% Akbank TAS 12,37% Turkiye Halk Bankasi AS 8,82% Haci Omer Sabanci Holding AS 7,51% Turkiye Is Bankasi 7,37% BIM Birlesik Magazalar AS 6,46% Tupras Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS 4,94% Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS 4,94% KOC Holding AS 4,26% Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi AS 3,31% Turk Hava Yollari 3,26% Turk Telekomunikasyon AS 2,76% Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi Tao 2,66% Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS 2,02% Arcelik AS 1,64% Koza Altin Isletmeleri AS 1,61% Emlak Konut Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortaklig 1,60% Enka Insaat ve Sanayi AS 1,47% Turkiye Sise ve Cam Fabrikalari AS 1,12% Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS 1,05% Petkim Petrokimya Holding AS 0,87% Asya Katilim Bankasi AS 0,84% Koza Anadolu Metal Madencilik Isletmeler 0,72% Kardemir Karabuk Demir Celik Sanayi ve T 0,70% Dogan Sirketler Grubu Holding AS 0,69% Migros Ticaret AS 0,57% Turk Traktor ve Ziraat Makineleri AS 0,53% Aselsan Elektronik Sanayi Ve Ticaret AS 0,47% Ihlas Holding AS 0,46% Ipek Dogal Enerji Kaynaklari Ve Uretim A 0,39%
  18. 18. ERSTE GROUP ISIN-Code Dt WKN Basiswert Maßgeb. Börse Ausübungskur s Barriere Bezugs- verhältnis Laufzeitend e Erster Handelsta g Erst- ausgabe - preis Long / Short AT0000A0ZEC5 EB0CNL ISE 30 ISTANBUL 70.000,00 75.000,00 0,001 open end 08.02.2013 12,78 Long AT0000A0ZED3 EB0CNM ISE 30 ISTANBUL 85.000,00 90.000,00 0,001 open end 08.02.2013 6,48 Long AT0000A0ZEE1 EB0CNN ISE 30 ISTANBUL 115.000,00 110.000,00 0,001 open end 08.02.2013 6,11 Short AT0000A0ZEF8 EB0CNP ISE 30 ISTANBUL 130.000,00 125.000,00 0,001 open end 08.02.2013 12,41 Short Turbo-Zertifikate auf den ISE30-Index 18
  19. 19. ERSTE GROUP IBTX EUR und ISE30 Index im Vergleich 19
  20. 20. ERSTE GROUP  Aktien von Emittenten mit Sitz in der Türkei sowie von Unternehmen, die an einer Börse in der Türkei notieren  Aktiver Investmentansatz entsprechend den qualitativen und quantitativen Methoden des CEE-Aktienteams  Währung: EUR (Fremdwährungsrisiken, da Aktien in TRY notieren)  Wertentwicklung lt. OEKB (Brutto in % p.a.) 1 Jahr: 59,82 3 Jahre: 11,40% 5 Jahre: -1,81 10 Jahre: 16,26  ISIN: AT0000704341 (Thesaurierer), AT0000704333 (Ausschütter)  AGA: 4%  Verwaltungsgebühr: 1,80% p.a. ESPA Stock Istanbul 20
  21. 21. ERSTE GROUP IBTX EUR, ISE30 Index und ESPA Stock Istanbul im Vergleich 21
  22. 22. ERSTE GROUP IBTX EUR, ISE30 Index und ESPA Stock Istanbul im Vergleich 22
  23. 23. ERSTE GROUP Erste Group Bank AG in der Türkei  Erste Group der erste Emittent von (Turbo)- Zertifikaten an der Istanbuler Börse  Underlyings zum Start: Dax, Gold, WTI  Aktuelle Produktpallete um Silber, Kupfer, ISE 30 und türkische Einzelwerte ergänzt  Entwicklung einer eigenen Website: www.sertifika.erste.com.tr  Weitere Produkte geplant: Optionsscheine & Indexzertifikate  Istanbuler Börse 2012:  Gehandeltes Volumen Aktien: EUR 382 Mrd.  Gehandeltes Volumen Strukturierte Produkte: EUR 2 Mrd.  Bester Monat Jänner 2013 strukturierte Produkte: EUR 560 Mio. Seite 23 11. Februar 2013OE 0196 0691
  24. 24. ERSTE GROUP 24 Wir stehen für Fragen zur Verfügung!

×