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Mary murphy nui maynooth post budget seminar slides 19 oct 16

Slides from the NERI Post Budget Seminar by Dr Mary P Murphy, NUI Maynooth.

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Mary murphy nui maynooth post budget seminar slides 19 oct 16

  1. 1. Advancing proofing in the Irish Budgetary Process Dr Mary P. Murphy Maynooth University IHREC
  2. 2. Budget 2017 and advancing proofing mechanisms
  3. 3. IHREC enabling and compliance powers 2016-18 Strategic Plan – 5 goals: Leadership, powers and public duty , making rights and equality real, advancing interculturalism
  4. 4. UN E/c.12 IRL/CO/3 Section 11  UN ICESCR June 15th - Rights based budgetary governance processes  Ensure that austerity measures are gradually phased out and the effective protection of the rights under the Covenant is enhanced in line with the progress achieved in the post-crisis economy recovery;  Consider reviewing its tax regime, with a view to increasing its revenues to restore the pre-crisis levels of public services and social benefits, in a transparent and participatory manner; and  Consider instituting human rights impact assessments in its policy- making process, particularly relating to the Covenant rights  ERA, EBC, EAPN, NWCI, COF ………………NEVIN, TASC …………
  5. 5. Parliamentary Budget Office  OECD 2015  Irish Parliamentary Budget Office to equip parliamentarians to engage more effectively on budgetary matters, including through analysis of information of taxation, expenditure and performance, as well as policy costings ………  Where this will sit institutionally …….. …. Budget Scrutiny Committee, crucial resource, must be adequate to the task…
  6. 6. Budget process reforms … PfG May 2016 will develop the process of budget and policy proofing as a means of advancing equality, reducing poverty and strengthening economic and social rights. will ensure the institutional arrangements are in place to support equality and gender proofing in the independent Fiscal and Budget Office and within key government departments and to draw on the expertise of the IHREC to support the proofing process. Budget 2017 the fiscal and budget committee will be tasked with looking at gender and equality proofing budget submissions and proposals with independent expertise (including the IHREC) to assist where necessary.” Elsewhere ………………… Advance Social Impact Assessment In DPER
  7. 7. Nine grounds, (gender specific budget processes) Socio economic status as ground Different grounds – different data barriers, tactical and strategic Add human rights traditions and processes
  8. 8. Away from fiscal space/expenditure Maximising available resources & revenue as % of GDP
  9. 9. Budget 2017 projection
  10. 10. Making it happen …? Year plan Ambition Short term tactics & long term strategies Institutional reform – not overnight. Pace that enables proofing mechanism to be implemented in a realistic fashion. Incremental building towards institutional capacity
  11. 11. Report of the Select Committee on Arrangements for Budgetary Scrutiny 30 June 2016 p21 i. The Department of Finance and the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform be requested to provide early briefing on development and implementation of Government’s proofing of the budget-making process to the Committee on Budgetary Oversight; ii. Individual Ministers be asked to engage with their counterpart committees in the early autumn in relation to progress made in the proofing of any specific policies under development; and iii. The Independent Parliamentary Budget Office liaise closely with the Irish Human Rights and Equality Commission in relation to their respective agendas and opportunities for exchange of information and learning, in the human rights and equality area and generally
  12. 12. Oireachtas Committee on Budgetary Oversight Report on Budget 2017  Limited  Welcome insistence that a broad and stable tax base is necessary for sustainable budgeting to advance economic and social development  ‘Ireland has a good deal further to travel before it has the structures and processes that match the benchmarks set by other advanced democratic states’.
  13. 13. Clear focus on parliametary budget office and department capacity  Establish a well-resourced and fully functioning independent parliamentary budget office with capacity to hold government and departments to account on equality and human rights budgeting commitments.  Focus now
  14. 14. Budget 2017 – did it advance?  Focus not on budget day but budget process – policy making process  More information flow, TSG, sectoral committees, budget scrutiny committee  Half empty or half full – clear engagement  Develop greater capacity to analyse equality and distributional impacts of public services in Social Impact Assessment (SIA), beginning …  How far from overall ex-ante budgetary impacts assessment with the budget?  Childcare as example? Travellers, LPs,
  15. 15. Distributional analysis in budget  More analyses aimed at integrating equality and distributional considerations into the Budget process (Economic and Fiscal Outlook section, Chapter 5 Budgetary Reform p 44).  A full Social Impact Assessment (SIA) detailing the overall budgetary impact will be published by the Department of Social Protection in a timely manner after the Budget in order to inform the debates on the Finance Bill and the Social Welfare Bill.  Annex A distributional analysis of Budget 2017 measures on a variety of household family types across a range of income levels (focus on average effective tax rates not accounting of reliefs) .  Annex B provides a broader examination of income tax and progressivity issues (Gini analysis
  16. 16. Social Impact Assessment (SIA) framework  Add .. by exploring how SIA exercises might be broadened in scope specifically with regard to incorporating expenditure on public services. Compare the distributional impact of changes to types of public service spending and the implications for household outcomes.  IGEES SIA series of published papers to supplement the micro-simulation exercise undertaken at Budget time  GMS/TCS examples (inadequate but baseline)
  17. 17. The master plan and examples  Baseline position identifying level of spend in a given policy area, the key drivers of expenditure and profiling those impacted by the expenditure, baseline will facilitate the subsequent analysis  GMS, TCS  Labour Market Evaluation  Health,  Education,  Childcare,  Social housing framework for future Social Impact Assessments (“SIA”) which can be used as a reference point when examining who benefits or loses from budgetary policy decisions
  18. 18. SIA The assessment can be quantitative, measuring the change in incomes as a result of policy or qualitative, offering a description of how policies affect households’ financial positions Has the policy change resulted in quantifiable gain/loss to existing recipients? Who has gained/lost the most/ least? Has it altered the profile of the recipients?  Has this resulted in a change to the key drivers of spend in this area?
  19. 19. In the meantime  Establish a national proofing committee to advance the institutional framework for human rights and equality proofing, chaired by the Chair of the Budget Oversight Committee and with the IHREC, ESRI , Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, NESC, CSO and independent experts as members
  20. 20. Link with Section 42 – proofing progress in department goals..  Ensure all Departments, as part of their Section 42 public sector duty to have regard to equality and human rights, establish human rights and equality statements that set goals and establish issues, and link budget expenditure to advancing and realising these goals and address these issues.
  21. 21. Towards Budget 2018,  The Ministers for Finance and Public Expenditure and Reform should include a human rights and equality statement and ex ante distributional analysis in respective budget statements  Specific government departments, with support from the IHREC, should, during 2017, participate in SIA and other proofing demonstration models to pilot and test out different approaches. Publish in Budget 2018, CIS, Housing
  22. 22. IHREC work – ongoing  Research Advisory Group, Intetrnationalk liasion, growing internal capacity, developing resources  Meeting budget scrutiny committee  Round table proofing experts  Communicating with key departments Taoiseach’s, Finance and DPER  Advancing pilot(s) with expenditure dept  Commission own revenue proofing exercise
  23. 23. Promoting public support for proofing  Briefing materials  Current affairs articles and op eds  Special edition of Administration – Ireland’s public administration journal  Meeting civil society, (NWCI, ERA, 22 Sept)  EBC rebrand and opinion piece very welcome  Funding NWCI, look at supporting civil society  Ideas welcome!

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