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Eamon murphy budget response-neri 19 oct 16

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Presentation by Eamon Murphy, Social Justice Ireland at the NERI Post Budget Seminar held in the INTO Learning Centre on 19th Oct, 16

Published in: Economy & Finance
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Eamon murphy budget response-neri 19 oct 16

  1. 1. NERI POST-BUDGET SEMINAR 19 OCTOBER 2016 Eamon Murphy Economic & Social Analyst eamon.murphy@socialjustice.ie www.socialjustice.ie @eamonsji
  2. 2. Employment and Tax Before Budget 2017 After Budget 2017 Salary range Rate Salary range Rate €0 - €12,012 1% €0 - €12,012 0.5% €12,013 - €18,668 3% €12,013 - €18,772 2.5% €18,669 - €70,044 5.5.% €18,773 - €70,044 5% €70,045 + 8% €70,045 + 8% @eamonsji €335m Spent on alterations to USC bands and rates
  3. 3. Example • Person B earns approximately 3 times as much as Person A • Person B gains approximately 3 times as much as Person A @eamonsji Person A Person B Marital Status Single Single Salary € 23,400 € 72,000 Salary Benchmark Living Wage (€11.50 per hour) Twice average earnings Gain from Budget 2017 € 119 € 351.50 Gain as a % of salary 0.51% 0.49%
  4. 4. Employment and Tax • €335m spent on alterations to USC bands and rates • €48m on income tax reductions • For that same €383m you could have (a) Made tax credits refundable (€140m) (b) Increased the personal tax credit for all earners by €100 per person per annum (€227m) ….and had money to spare! • Small increase to the minimum wage (10 cent per hour) Low paid workers looking forward to 2030 • Young people didn’t get the full benefit @eamonsji
  5. 5. Trends in effective tax rates @eamonsji 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19% 2008 2009 2009* 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Single earner on €25,000 Couple 1 earner on €40,000 Couple 2 earners on €60,000
  6. 6. Trends in effective tax rates @eamonsji 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2008 2009 2009* 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Single earner on €25,000 Couple 1 earner on €40,000 Couple 2 earners on €60,000
  7. 7. Housing and Homelessness @eamonsji Supply is the problem, so demand is the solution? Help to Buy Scheme • First Time Buyers • Income tax rebate of 5% on newly constructed home • Based on income tax paid during the four years prior to purchase. • Full amount available on homes worth €400k. Available on homes worth less than €600k. • Pro-rata rebate will be made available in respect of those below €400,000.
  8. 8. Housing and Homelessness @eamonsji Other options… • 400 social housing units • Levy on undeveloped land • Replace the Local Property Tax with a Site Value Tax Incentivise developers to put land to use • Off-balance-sheet mechanisms Invoke Structural Reform Clause Create a Special Purpose Vehicle
  9. 9. Homelessness August 2015 to August 2016 @eamonsji 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Homeless Adults Families Dependents Total Homeless Extracted from Department of Housing, Planning, Community and Local Government Homelessness Statistics, www.environ.ie
  10. 10. Vacant units vs Housing Waiting Lists @eamonsji 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 Waiting List 2013 All Vacant 2016 Vacant (excl. Hol homes) 2016 Source: Census 2016, www.cso.ie and Housing Agency, Summary of Social Housing Assessments 2013, December 2013
  11. 11. Other selected areas @eamonsji • Childcare not a bad start, but….
  12. 12. Other selected areas @eamonsji • Childcare not a bad start, but…. • Climate change
  13. 13. Education spending @eamonsji
  14. 14. Other selected areas @eamonsji • Childcare not a bad start, but…. • Climate change • Education • Demographic concerns
  15. 15. Other selected areas @eamonsji • Childcare not a bad start, but…. • Climate change • Education • Demographic concerns • Official Development Assistance fall in overseas aid as a % of GNP
  16. 16. Trend in Ireland’s overseas aid (% of GNP) @eamonsji Source: Census 2016, www.cso.ie and Housing Agency, Summary of Social Housing Assessments 2013, December 2013 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 The UN-agreed target of 0.7% of GNP
  17. 17. Thank you @eamonsji www.socialjustice.ie

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